美国经济危机原因及其影响的新解释——基于经济长波、货币供给与国际竞争的视角

美国经济危机是其新长波运行到顶后以朱格拉周期形式表现的一次调整,美国经济由此将步入缓慢增长的动荡时期。为满足长波扩张对巨额货币供给的需要,20世纪80年代美国金融体系进行了以金融创新为主要内容的重构,由此支撑了美国经济长达20多年的快速增长,并极大提升了美国的国际地位。但随着长波的演进,不仅内部的扩张动力逐渐衰竭,而且外部的相对竞争力也在快速下降,实体经济对新增货币的吸纳能力减弱,由此金融创新深化所创造的巨大货币供给就只能转向次贷和高杠杆的金融衍生产品。当实体经济与虚拟经济的背离达到一定程度时,经济危机也就不可避免。美国经济危机最终转化为世界经济危机,则是因为各主要国家之间的经济周期出现了高度的同步性,是它们之间相互叠加共振的结果。     

试析《中美洲自由贸易协定》多角化影响

历经9年的艰苦谈判之后,美国与中美洲五国及多米尼加签署了《中美洲自由贸易协定》(CAFTA-DR).该协定的签署对于中美洲国家而言意义重大,借助该协定的实施,中美洲国家的贸易与直接投资将会得到大幅度的增长,地区经济将会快速发展.同时,CAFTA-DR的签订,改变了中美洲原先的次区域一体化优先路线,对中美洲未来的区域一体化进程将会产生深远的影响.     

欧美债务危机与中国经济发展

在世界经济逐步摆脱金融危机的阴影,我国集中精力实施"十二五"规划的进程中,欧美经济又先后受到债务危机的困扰。美国债务危机的深层根源在于由基本矛盾而产生的有效需求不足,直接原因是为弥补这种不足而采取的财政赤字政策,举债过度。欧美债务危机对我国经济必将造成一系列的负面影响,但就我国经济发展的基础和趋势看,如果因应得当,国民经济继续保持较快持续发展的态势不会因此而改变。欧美债务危机对我国有深刻的启示,应从中吸取教训,采取必要的措施,把我国的经济搞得更好。     

Hyperpower Exceptionalism: Globalisation the American Way

We are in a unique position because of our unique assets, because of the character of our people, the strength of our ideals, the might of our military and the enormous economy that supports it. (Vice-President Dick Cheney, addressing the Council on Foreign Relations, February 2002) Today's era is dominated by American power, American culture, the American dollar and the American navy. (Thomas Friedman, 2000) In international affairs the USA displays growing unilateralism. International development policies have been constrained by the Washington consensus. The USA fails to sign on to international greening protocols. Until recently the USA was perennially in arrears in United Nations dues. On several occasions (such as Nicaragua, Panama) the USA has not followed international legal standards and it ignores the International Court if its verdict goes against it. American policies contribute to the enduring stalemate in the Middle East. Take any global problem and the USA is both the major player and the major bottleneck. It is a reasonable question to ask whether this is just a matter of the current US administration or whether more profound dynamics are at work.     

金融危机下的中美贸易摩擦与政府的有效应对——以"轮胎特保案"为视角

金融危机导致国际贸易萎缩,加剧国际市场竞争,也促使各国采取更为保守的贸易政策和措施,从而加剧国际贸易摩擦。最近发生的轮胎特保案就是由于美国奉行贸易保护主义产生的贸易摩擦。美国的贸易限制不仅直接影响到中国众多企业的生存发展,而且会对中国整个经济发展带来影响。因此,需要我们的政府、进出口企业和各种行业协会紧密配合,共同努力,这其中,政府的引导和协调起着不可替代的主导作用。     

以企业为实施主体的美国NII计划组织实施方法及其对我国重大专项组织实施的启示

美国NII计划类似于我国的重大专项,它切合经济社会发展的需求,承担培育重大战略产业、创造新经济增长点的使命。在美国NII计划的组织实施中,美国政府组建了推动"技术—产业—经济"战略布局的领导组织(IITF),制定了确保企业参与的五项原则以及为之服务的政府工作细则和目标,为企业建设NII创造了公平的市场法律环境、政策激励环境以及有效市场需求。 ?     

Expectations and forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-time evidence from the business press

How was the Great Depression viewed in real time? This paper yields a new perspective on this question by quantifying the qualitative statements of economic analysts in the business press and at the Federal Reserve Board. We compare the statements of economic analysts about current and future conditions to what actually happened to the American economy in the Great Depression. While Depression-era economic forecasters were able to accurately assess what was happening contemporaneously in the economy, forecasters were persistently optimistic that “the corner had been turned” and that a strong recovery was imminent even as the economy continued to decline. This optimism was based on the use of analogies and forecasting rules-of-thumb of how an economy should behave, which were derived from the experience of previous recessions (Haney, 1931).     

International Trade and the Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment in a Heckscher-Ohlin World Economy

This paper develops a (stylized Asia-America) Heckscher-Ohlin world economy in which the equilibrium rate of unemployment is endogenous. We examine the impact of various economic shocks on unemployment in the global economy. Harrod-neutral or Hicks-neutral technical progress across all industries in Asia leads to a terms of trade improvement for America but raises America's unemployment rate. Introducing a third country such as the block of former socialist economies results in higher unemployment for both Asia and America. Protection in America lowers American equilibrium unemployment but raises Asia's unemployment. [E24]     

金融危机下的中美贸易摩擦与政府的有效应对

金融危机导致国际贸易萎缩，加剧国际市场竞争，也促使各国采取更为保守的贸易政策和措施，从而加剧国际贸易摩擦。最近发生的轮胎特保案就是由于美国奉行贸易保护主义产生的贸易摩擦。美国的贸易限制不仅直接影响到中国众多企业的生存发展，而且会对中国整个经济发展带来影响。因此，需要我们的政府、进出口企业和各种行业协会紧密配合，共同努力，这其中，政府的引导和协调起着不可替代的主导作用。     

Convergence clubs in Latin America

The aim of this work is to identify convergence clubs in 17 Latin American countries in terms of GDP per capita during the period 1990–2014. To do this, we apply the methodology developed by Phillips-Sul in order to identify the different convergence clubs on the path of growth in the Latin American economy over this period. The empirical results strongly support the existence of convergence clubs, indicating that the Latin American economy consists of four groups, each converging towards its own steady-state path, with two countries being divergent.     

后危机阶段中国经济发展的途径和模式

从对本次金融危机认识与传导路径研究总结归纳入手,着重分析了美国金融危机对中国国民经济增长带来的影响。以金融、贸易及利率等宏观经济变化为背景,以2006～2009年的月度数据为研究样本,实证检验了中国在这次金融危机中受到的冲击。结果表明,中美股票市场之间相互影响相互引致的关系,且以美国股市影响为主;美国进口需求对中国出口具有显著的影响;人民币汇率变化与美元估值变化关系不明显,并就实证结果提供了相关政策建议。     

次贷危机对实体经济的影响及政策建议

2007年以来,美国次贷危机的影响进一步从金融层面传导到实体经济层面,危机的国际传导效应增大了全球经济的风险,国际经济形势更趋复杂.在此背景下,中国经济也不可避免地受到影响,其中主要体现在对出口、房地产及资产价格等方面.目前我国经济中存在着通胀增速过快及经济过热的双重压力,同时人民币又处于升值周期,这无疑加大了政府宏观调控政策实施的难度.次贷危机也对全球特别是中国的监管体制提出了挑战.     

金融危机下企业融资现状及对策研究

美国金融危机席卷全球,中国经济也未能独善其身。从虚拟经济影响到实体经济,中国的企业进入了“寒冬”,融资困难上演了很多企业走向倒闭的悲剧。中国企业要解决融资难题,就要加快金融体制改革和金融工具创新;发展内源性融资,政府应多管齐下支持中小企业多渠道融资。     

离岸外包对美国经济的影响分析

离岸外包是当前世界经济中普遍存在的一种经济现象，在美国引起了广泛关注。笔者通过审视美国经济中存在的离岸外包现象，分析了它的产生原因，并研究了它对美国劳工就业、经济发展的影响，认为离岸外包对美国经济的长期发展利大于弊。     

The market integration of large and small economies: Australia,the U.S., and Japan

A cross spectral comparison of the major Australian business and inflation cycles with their American and Japanese equivalents indicates a close degree of price integration between Australian and American markets and a strong quantity integration of Australian and Japanese markets. These studies suggest the operation of an international monetary transmission channel linking the Australian and American economies and a foreign trade multiplier channel transmitting Japanese disturbances to the Australian economy. The policy implications of these different forms of market integration are discussed with the emphasis placed on Australian currency exchanges.     

The application of risk analysis to the appraisal of optional investment in the electricity supply industry

Although currency substitution is a widely observed phenomenon in both developed and developing counries, most of the studies on currency substitutioin in small open economies have focused on high inflatin South American countries. This paper extends the previous analysis to a newly industrializing, high-inflation economy, namely Turkey. A vector autoregression model has beeb estimated employing the certain policy variables to investigate the dynamics of currency substitution in the economy. Dynamic impulse responses show that the residents have a preference for substitutiong foregn currencies for domestic currency because of reawl-exchange-rate depreciations. The results suggest that to stop or to reverse the on-going currency substition process a plicy aiming to increase the expected real return on domestic assets should be adopted.     

浅析美国次贷危机及其对长三角经济的影响

美国次贷危机已演变成国际金融危机。其影响范围也已从美国波及到全球,各主要国家纷纷出台拯救金融或经济计划。在这一经济背景下,探讨此次危机产生及演变的原因,分析其对我国长三角经济造成负面影响的传染渠道,寻求相应的对策,对于保持长三角经济平稳快速发展具有重要意义。     

经济虚拟化、金融危机与政府规制

货币的虚拟化打开了经济虚拟化的大门,自由放任主义和政府失灵是经济虚拟化的重要推动力。经济全球化的本质是虚拟经济的全球化,美国的债务经济循环将全球经济紧紧地捆绑在一起,并为虚拟经济的发展不断注入流动性。金融危机产生的根源在于经济的过度虚拟化,导致整个金融系统的风险不断累积和放大,最终导致金融系统的崩溃。保持虚拟经济与实体经济的适当比例,加快金融体系的建设和完善,合理界定市场与政府的边界,是我们面临的重要任务。     

基本公共服务均等化对拉动内需的作用分析

在美国金融危机的影响下,我国推进基本公共服务均等化有利于拉动我国内需,提高居民消费支出和投资系数促进人力资本积累,进而拉动实体经济.通过增加基本公共服务的投资,加大对农村的扶持力度,可进一步推进基本公共服务均等化.     

Alternate forecasts of the job content and skill requirements of the American economy in 1980

This paper analyzes the potential job content and skill requirements of the American economy in 1980 under three alternate economic futures. Detailed occupational manpower requirements are generated on the basis of a “Status Quo” economy, a “Social Welfare” economy, and a “Defense” economy in the near future. Occupational manpower requirements are then translated into a Job Family-Skill Content classification to determine how these alternate national priority choices may affect future requirements for specific jobs, skills, educational preparation, and vocational training. The results obtained indicate the job families and skill classifications most sensitive to changes in basic economic parameters, and also identify long run trends in manpower and educational requirements unaffected by shifting social priorities and patterns of federal expenditures. The implications of these findings for manpower and educational planning are briefly discussed.