中国利率市场化现状及对商业银行的影响

随着社会经济的高速发展,我国的经济策略已经从经济增长转变为提高资源配置效率。而利率作为决定机制的关键,其市场化也是国家深化金融改革的必要阶段。对于商业银行来说,利率市场化改革会对其产生巨大的影响。在此背景下,文章通过对中国利率市场化进程、利率市场化影响方面分析,并用SWOT分析的方法分析利率市场化改革对商业银行影响,从而得到商业银行应对改革冲击的合理化建议。     

从美日经验分析利率市场化对金融运行的影响

美国和日本的利率市场化对金融运行产生不同的影响,其经验教训为我国利率市场化改革提供了借鉴。十二五时期,我国利率市场化进程将加快,放开存贷款利率成为我国利率市场化改革的攻艰任务。在此过程中,需要认真分析和研究利率市场化对经济和金融运行的影响,明确改革重点,完善配套措施,有序向前推进。     

存款保险制度再推进

推出存款保险机制,既有利于推进金融市场化改革,也是经济增长转型中的一张金融安全网。中国是否需要存款保险制度,这个争议已经由来已久。自2013年7月20日起实施的金融机构贷款利率全面放开,推进了利率市场化进程,与此同时人们也更加期待存款利率市场化。在存款和贷款的利率市场化之间的鸿沟,即缺失的存款保险制度也越来越凸显出来。     

发展中国家的利率市场化进程：比较与借鉴

发展中国家实施的低利率的利率管制政策对其经济增长造成了损害。70年代起，许多发展中国家进行金融改革，实行利率市场化。比较和分析这些国家利率市场化实施的背景、 进程与后果，从中得出一些经验教训。我国进行利率市场化的条件尚未成熟，应该有步骤地、渐进地层层推进利率市场化的改革。     

利率市场化对商业银行的影响

我国的"十二五"规划明确提出要稳步推进利率市场化改革,利率市场化是我国金融体制改革的必由之路。但是,我国在利率市场化过程中仍面对不少问题,而且利率市场化也会对我国商业银行的可持续发展产生深远影响。本文在梳理我国利率市场化改革发展历程的基础上,重点分析利率市场化对我国银行业带来的影响,最后针对我国商业银行应对利率市场化的可持续发展策略提出了建议。     

浅谈利率市场化对经济的影响

近些年来,随着金融体制改革的进行,我国对原有计划利率体制进行了渐进式的改革,而利率这一金融市场的价格仍在管制中,这显然滞后于我国经济市场化进程,为使其与我国金融市场化及经济市场化的改革进程一致,需要进一步推进利率市场化改革。     

探析金融改革的关键因素

中国梦的实现取决于持续健康的经济增长,以及转向消费使经济再平衡。进行金融改革,以实现中国梦的必经之路。本文以利率市场化为金融改革的突破口进行分析,对利率市场化的必要性及我国利率市场化的条件进行分析,最后探讨了利率市场化的途径。通过对金融改革中利率市场化这一因素进行分析探讨,旨在为相关研究提供参考。     

浅析中国利率市场化改革中的问题与对策

利率市场化是经济市场化的必然要求,是金融深化改革的核心内容之一,利率市场化的推进将给我国国民经济带来巨大的、深远的影响.本文首先介绍了利率市场化的概念并对我国利率市场化的进程进行了回顾,同时指出利率市场化改革在我国还存在一些阻碍.在此基础上,文章提出了完善的措施和建议.     

对进一步推进我国利率市场化可行条件的分析

随着利率改革的深入，进一步推进利率市场化成为不以人的意志为转移的客观趋势，笔者从宏观经济运行、微观基础、经济政策、金融政策等方面对进一步推进我国利率市场化的可行性进行了分析，同时又指出了一些限制条件，最后得出结论：当前我国利率市场化不能操之过急，应稳步推进。     

我国利率市场化进程中商业银行的利率风险管理

利率市场化是我国金融改革的核心内容之一,在我国加入WTO之后,有计划有步骤地推进利率改革,具有重要意义。外币利率市场化作为新时期利率改革的先导,标志着我国“先外币,后本币;先存款,后贷款;先农村,后城市”的利率市场化改革进程已迈入实质性阶段,必将对经济金融领域的各个层面产生重要影响。对于商业银行而言,对利率市场化可能对商业银行带来的风险及应对措施加以系统研究,就显得十分必要。     

中国利率市场化改革的路径选择

以麦金农—肖学派为核心的传统金融发展理论指出,只有实行以利率市场化为核心的金融自由化道路,才能使发展中国家摆脱金融抑制,走上金融发展与经济增长的良性循环道路。以这一理论为基础,中国从1993年开始走上了利率市场化改革的道路,经过10多年的努力,到目前为止,中国已经在多个领域,多个层次初步实现了利率市场化。可以说,中国的利率市场化改革已经走在了金融自由化进程的前边。     

Financial Factors,Openness and the Natural Interest Rate in China

China's financial market has undergone significant changes since financial deleveraging commenced and regulatory supervision was tightened in 2017. Intensifying China–US trade tensions have further increased the uncertainties of external environments. In this article, we use a Bayesian approach instead of the standard maximum likelihood estimation in the Laubach–Williams model to estimate the natural interest rate by considering financial factors and open conditions, and analyze the relationships among the natural interest rate, economic activities and monetary policies. We find that technological and demographic factors are the main drivers of natural interest rates, while financial factors and open conditions also play important roles. In particular, shocks in the financial markets and the external economic environment in recent years are important reasons for the decline of China's natural interest rate. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen research on the estimation of the natural interest rate to ensure China's transformation into more price‐based monetary policy and high‐quality development.     

The Impact of the US Interest Rate Hike on Emerging Market Economies and the Belt and Road Initiative

Since the end of 2015, the US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times. This has led to capital outflows and asset depreciation in many emerging market economies. The present paper examines the factors that determine the financial volatility of emerging markets in the face of external shocks. By calculating the capital flows of 30 emerging markets from 1990 to 2018 and conducting panel regression, this paper finds that countries with good infrastructure facilities, a sound banking system and high economic growth have significantly lower cross‐border financial risks. An implication from the empirical analysis is that emerging countries would benefit greatly by actively taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative. The framework of the Belt and Road Initiative allows emerging countries better access to China's massive consumer market to promote trade and long‐term growth. Their quality of infrastructure can be improved through cooperation with China in infrastructure investment. They can also jointly establish a cooperative financial framework to enhance regional financial stability. These strategies will reduce systematic financial risks and counteract the negative impacts of US interest rate hikes.     

China＇s Excessive Investment

China＇ s economy has witnessed serious excessive investment over the past 5 years, mainly in the infrastructure and real estate. Excessive investment has adverse impacts on both economic growth and macroeconomic stability. The main causes of this excessive investment are inappropriate growth strategies, low interest rates and weak constraints on government investment expenditure. To effectively control excessive investment, China needs to adjust its growth strategy, to speed up the process of interest rate marketization, and reform the existing public expenditure system.     

央行利率政策的门限转换特征及国际证据

本文利用亚太地区15个国家1992~2007年的面板数据研究了央行利率政策的门限转换特征。结论认为,通货膨胀对经济增长的影响存在显著的门限特征,各国央行的利率政策也存在显著的门限转换特征。在低通胀阶段,利率没有对经济增长与通货膨胀做出显著响应;但在高通胀阶段,央行首先致力于维护金融稳定,然后促进经济增长。文章对发达国家与发展中国家进行了比较,发现二者的利率政策表现出相似的特征,但发展中国家的利率政策倾向于更高的门限值;文章最后对中国利率政策的实施提出了相关政策建议。     

利率管制、LPR与完全市场化下的货币政策传导机制:理论对比与实证检验

2019年8月,中国人民银行正式启用修订后的贷款基础利率（LPR）,标志着中国利率市场化改革步入收官阶段。这使得有关利率市场化能否保障货币政策有效性并从根本上改善货币政策传导效率的探讨再度成为焦点。鉴于此,文章构建了DSGE模型和TVP-VAR模型,详细对比了不同市场化程度下利率政策的有效性和传导效率,主要得出以下三点结论：第一,随着市场化程度的不断加深,产出、通胀与企业价值对利率调控的反应愈加敏感,表明利率市场化改革能够优化利率的宏微观传导效率;第二,模拟分析显示,完全市场化将会大幅降低利率政策的宏观传导效率,同时还可能诱发逆向选择并导致微观传导渠道失灵,因此货币当局仍应对利率完全市场化持必要谨慎;最后,实证检验结果表明,LPR的推出进一步提高了利率传导效率,这说明在完全市场化的初级阶段,采取LPR等过渡元素逐渐加强市场定价主导地位不失为双轨合一过程中的有益尝试。     

Interest Rate Pass-through in a Dual-track System： Evidence from China

Using the Phillips-Loretan approach, this paper verifies the degree and speed of pass- through and rigidity of different interest rates in China, as well as the response of private loan interest rates to other interest rates during 2002-2012. The results indicate that the long-term pass-through from the interbank offered rates and deposit and loan interest rates to the treasury bond rate is incomplete, but that the long-term pass-through to private loan interest rates is overshooting. The long-term pass-through from the deposit and loan interest rates to the overnight interbank offered rate is incomplete, while that to the interbank offered rates of other maturities is complete. The short-term passthrough and adjustment speed of interest rates exhibit asymmetry. Therefore, before considering a full liberalization of interest rates, it is important to further enhance the competition of the financial system and the function of different interest rate systems, such as the interhank market and bond market.     

数量型还是价格型货币政策比较——基于利率市场化角度的分析

利率市场化进程中,数量型还是价格型货币政策合适?文章考虑金融市场上的金融加速器特征,将其引入DSGE模型,通过校准、模拟,从宏观经济波动幅度、不同货币政策下冲击效应以及福利损失函数三方面综合分析了利率市场化过程中数量型和价格型货币政策有效性问题。研究结果显示,随着存款利率的上升,在熨平经济波动方面,价格型货币政策更有优势;在促进经济增长方面,数量型货币政策更有优势;对央行损失而言,价格型货币政策的损失更小。因此,中央银行应根据需要灵活的运用数量型和货币型搭配使用,做好数量型向价格型转变。     

论我国开展利率期货交易的条件

在我国金融创新的步伐加快、股指期货推出在即的气氛渲染下,国内对于利率期货的呼声也日渐高涨。那么我国是否真的就具备了推出利率期货的条件呢？文章认为,面对不可能一蹴而就的诸多限制条件,尚不能贸然推出利率期货。针对这一问题,文章在简略介绍了利率期货及其经济意义后,重点讨论了我国现阶段推出利率期货的诸多现实难点,并对开展利率期货需要重点突破的问题进行了解析,为今后我国发展利率期货提供了有益的参考。     

For the Motion

The interest rate is one of the most important factors in farmers’ decision-making of borrowing and lending in the informal financial market in China. This paper explores the determinants of the interest rate with microfinance data. Results show that the income disparity, the relationship between borrowers and lenders, the usage of borrowing, and formal credit constraints are important factors affecting interest rates. More importantly, to borrow from those in the higher income hierarchy, farmers have to bear higher interest rates. We attribute this to different social capitals across income groups and higher default risks for the poor. This paper contributes to a better understanding of the informal financial market in rural China and sheds light on the mechanism of higher informal interest rate formation.