THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VARIABILITY OF INFLATION AND STOCK RETURNS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

Several researchers find a negative correlation between the rate of inflation and stock returns. This phenomenon may be explained by the variability hypothesis, which posits that the negative correlation is caused by the combination of a positive relation between the rate of inflation and the variability of inflation and a negative relation between the variability of inflation and stock returns. An autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model of inflation is used to measure the variability of inflation. Empirical results do not support the ability of the variability hypothesis to explain the negative correlation between stock returns and inflation.     

COMMON STOCK RETURNS,EXPECTED INFLATION,AND THE RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESIS

This paper provides empirical evidence that expected inflation has a cross-sectional impact on common stock returns. The study differs from others in that (a) the relation between stock returns and expected inflation is investigated in a two-factor asset pricing model, where the factors are the return on an equally weighted stock portfolio and the expected rate of inflation; (b) the estimation of the expected rate of inflation is based on the rational expectations hypothesis of Muth; and (c) a non-linear seemingly unrelated regression technique is employed to determine consistent and asymptotically efficient estimates. The joint hypothesis of the two-factor asset pricing model and rational expectations is not rejected in this study. It is found that the return on common stocks is significantly affected by expected inflation. Also stocks whose returns are positively correlated with expected inflation have lower expected returns.     

THE EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRADING VOLUME,RETURNS AND VOLATILITY

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between trading volume, returns and volatility in the Australian stock market. The initial analysis centres upon the volume-price change relationship. The relationship between trading volume and returns, irrespective of the direction of the price change, is significant across three alternative measures of daily trading volume for the aggregate market. This finding also provides basic support for a positive relationship between trading volume and volatility. Furthermore, evidence is found supporting the hypothesis that the volume-price change slope for negative returns is smaller than the slope for non-negative returns, thereby supporting an asymmetric relationship which is hypothesised to exist because of differential costs of taking long and short positions. Analysis at the individual stock level shows weaker support for the relationship. A second related hypothesis is tested in which the formation of returns is conditional upon information arrival which similarly affects trading volume. The hypothesis is tested by using the US overnight return to proxy for expected “news” and trading volume to proxy for news arrival during the day. The results show a reduction in the significance and magnitude of persistence in volatility and hence are consistent with explaining non-normality in returns (and ARCH effects) through the rate of arrival of information. The findings in this paper help explain how returns are generated and have implications for inferring return behaviour from trading volume data.     

SKEWNESS AND KURTOSIS IN JAPANESE EQUITY RETURNS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

In this paper, the distribution of equity returns on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is examined from 1965 to 1984, and significant and persistent skewness and kurtosis are found. The deviation of security returns from normality declines with increasing portfolio size and appears to be greater than the non-normality evidenced in U.S. security returns. Further, these deviations from normality persist even after controlling for January and firm size effects.     

HEDGED DIVIDEND CAPTURE AND EX-DAY RETURNS: AN EMPIRICAL UPDATE

We find that the magnitude of abnormal ex-day returns exhibited by US equities diminished in 1987 and 1988, subsequent to the US Tax Reform Act of 1986. We also report the results of a dividend capture strategy, hedged with the sale of stock index futures contracts. Hedging removes more than 50 percent of the risk of dividend capture, and even after transactions costs, can provide returns in excess of buying and holding the market portfolio of equities.     

OTC MARKET SWITCHING AND STOCK RETURNS: SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

In this study the effect on the common stock returns of 278 firms that switched OTC market segments from 1982 to 1987 is examined. It is hypothesized that abnormally positive returns are associated with news of the move from the NASDAQ to the NASDAQ National Market System (NMS) and that the market responds more favorably during pre-NMS inclusion for stocks with low versus high liquidity before switching. Using event study methodology, results support these hypotheses. Unlike post-listing studies, the evidence reveals no anomalous return behavior during the post-NMS inclusion period studied.     

THE ELIMINATION OF DIRECTOR LIABILITY AND STOCKHOLDER RETURNS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

In this paper, the performance of the common stock of Delaware and non-Delaware firms is examined during the Delaware legislature's debate and approval of an amendment to the Delaware General Corporation Law permitting the elimination of director liability. In addition, stockholder returns surrounding the proxy and meeting dates for certain Delaware firms are examined. Results indicate that Delaware firms performed worse than non-Delaware firms during the legislative period; however, strong differences between the two groups are not documented.