Changing patterns of UK poverty, 1997 2004

It has been noted that the failure to meet the target set bythe government for reducing the head count ratio of child povertyin Britain is partly due to the success of government policyin generating economic growth. Apart from ignoring the argumentthat absolute poverty is not a meaningful idea, this apologyfor the failure of government to meet poverty targets also misseswider problems embedded in recent trends in the household incomedistribution. For example, inequality measures sensitive tothe distribution of income amongst the poor suggest that theexperience of those who remained poor may have worsened.     

POVERTY EQUIVALENT GROWTH RATE

This paper proposes a new type of growth rate, called the “poverty equivalent growth rate” (PEGR), which takes into account both the growth rate in mean income and how the benefits of growth are distributed between the poor and the non‐poor. The proposed measure satisfies a basic requirement that the proportional reduction in poverty is a monotonically increasing function of the PEGR. Thus, maximizing the PEGR implies a maximum reduction in poverty. The paper demonstrates that the magnitude of PEGR determines the pattern of growth: whether growth is pro‐poor in relative or absolute sense or is “poverty reducing” pro‐poor. The pattern of growth has been analyzed for Brazil using the National Household Survey (PNAD) covering the period 1995–2005.     

NEW INSIGHTS INTO THE STRUCTURE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY*

The United Nations' newly completed study of purchasing power parities covering 34 countries varied in region, income level, and form of economic organization shows the systematic differences between the usual view of the structure of the world economy arising out of international comparisons based upon foreign exchange rate conversions and the structure one sees when actual prices are available. The real per capita GDP of developing countries is understated relative to developed countries when exchange rates are used in converting countries' national income accounts to a common currency, with the degree of understatement for any two countries being inversely related to the per capita income difference between them. The reason for this is that relative prices in the non-traded goods sector are lower relative to traded goods prices in low income countries. The systematic pattern observed in the 1975 data of the 34 countries has been extrapolated over time and space to get estimates of GDP for other years and countries. In the absence of detailed price data, the real shares of final expenditures devoted to particular components of the total can only be estimated as the proportion of own currency total expenditure devoted to the components. The observed differences in the pattern of prices of poor countries relative to rich for different components makes this clearly wrong for international comparisons, and in systematic ways. For example, (i) the relative price of services compared with commodities in poor countries is lower than in rich; so the apparent tendency of the share of services to rise as a country's income rises disappears when real quantities are considered; similarly, (ii) the relative price of capital goods is greater in poor countries compared with rich ones, so the difference in investment ratios out of GDP between rich and poor countries is understated.     

The Simple Post-Keynesian Monetary Policy Model: An Open Economy Approach

Monetary policy with an inflation targeting rule is analyzed through a simple small-scale Post-Keynesian model that incorporates open economy issues. In contrast with previous Post-Keynesian attempts, the model embodies policy authorities that are committed not only to hitting inflation and/or output targets, but also to the achievement of the external balance. To take account of the external balance objective, we model the real exchange rate as an endogenous and moving target, with the nominal exchange rate being the instrument of that target. The model shows that in response to an adverse external shock the central bank has to consider first the required real exchange rate adjustment that will preserve the external balance, and secondly the level at which the interest rate must be set in order to maintain inflation stabilization. Keeping inflation to target requires higher interest rates and strong reliance on the unemployment channel which, under certain circumstances, also has adverse side effects on income distribution. We show that to deal with an exogenous external shock a policy mix of real exchange rate targeting and income distribution targeting outperforms inflation targeting.     

Africa is on time

We present evidence that the recent African growth renaissance has reached Africa’s poor. Using survey data on African income distributions and national accounts GDP, we estimate income distributions, poverty rates, and inequality indices for African countries for the period 1990–2011. We show that: (1) African poverty is falling rapidly; (2) the African countries for which good inequality data exists are set to reach the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) poverty target on time. The entire continent except for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will reach the MDG in 2014, one year in advance, and adding the DRC will delay the MDG until 2018; (3) the growth spurt that began in 1995, if anything, decreased African income inequality instead of increasing it; (4) African poverty reduction is remarkably general: it cannot be explained by a large country, or even by a single set of countries possessing some beneficial geographical or historical characteristic. All classes of countries, including those with disadvantageous geography and history, experience reductions in poverty. In particular, poverty fell for both landlocked as well as coastal countries; for mineral-rich as well as mineral-poor countries; for countries with favorable or with unfavorable agriculture; for countries regardless of colonial origin; and for countries with below- or above-median slave exports per capita during the African slave trade.     

Microfinance and child mortality

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) offer targeted opportunities for the poor to generate additional income with a range of financial services including credit, insurance, savings accounts and money transfers. Aside from reducing poverty, microfinance can potentially improve health because it is the poor who are usually more constrained from health investments due to limited budgets. Furthermore, microfinancing specifically targets women, who are more likely to spend additional income on children’s well-being. Finally, several MFIs have also begun to offer health-related services, such as health education, health-care financing, clinical care, training community health workers, health micro-insurance and linkages to public and private health providers. Using a new data set, this article conducts the first multi-country study of the effect of microfinance on child mortality, the health outcome, which is most sensitive to the effects of absolute deprivation. Our findings confirm that an increase in the proportion of MFI clients in a country is significantly associated with lower under-five and infant mortality rates. We conclude that if MFIs’ educational and health services have indeed caused improvements in health outcomes at the community level, then it may be important for governments to complement these activities with similar campaigns, particularly in remote areas where MFI penetration is low.     

地方科技创新目标约束、财政科技支出与城市创新

在创新引领发展背景下，各地区呈现出创新竞争发展格局。基于2013-2019年我国各省市设立的科技创新目标，结合城市面板数据和城市创新指数数据，实证检验地方科技创新目标约束对城市创新的影响效应及作用机制。研究结果显示：总体而言，创新投入目标约束能够显著促进城市创新，但创新产出目标约束和创新企业目标约束对城市创新无显著影响。就作用机制而言，创新投入目标约束通过扩大财政科技支出提升城市创新水平。异质性分析结果表明，创新投入目标约束对城市创新的促进作用在东部地区显著，在中部地区和西部地区不显著。同时，采用门槛模型考察创新投入强度目标对城市创新的影响,发现当创新投入强度目标超过门槛值2.8%时，会抑制城市创新。     

行为审计收益与成本属性的研究

成本理论是经济学的基本理论之一,该理论认为,在资源稀缺的条件下,经济活动追求的是利润最大化,这就要求收益最大,成本最低。通过审计绩效最优化对审计成本收益的配比进行分析,认为要树立正确的行为审计收益成本观,必须平衡追求业绩和成本的关系。正确的行为审计收益成本观就是在实施行为审计合规性与有效性的基础之上,以最小的行为审计成本追求最大的行为审计收益。通过审计收益成本模型建立的研究,将行为审计收益融入成本管理,确保行为审计绩效的最大化。     

Who gets arrested for marijuana use? The perils of being poor and black

We explore the relationship between income, race and the probability of being arrested. Our data set is comprised of individuals who have all violated federal marijuana laws, some of whom have been arrested. We reason that the cost of arresting a poor individual with diminished social status is lower. Our empiricism reveals that the probability of arrest is higher when the law breaker is poor and African American.     

论提高全民的收入水平

提高全民的收入水平，是我国今后在收入分配制度方面的改革重点和目标，即实现扩大中等收入阶层的比重，提高低收入者收入水平，消灭贫困人口。为此，在收入分配理论方面要实行一系列创新和突破；实践上，中等收入者的扩大，只能或主要来自于中低收入者收入水平的提高。消灭贫困其实质是提高广大农民的收入水平问题。     

Does Medicare benefit the poor?

Measuring the progressivity of age-targeted government programs is difficult because no single data set measures income and benefit use throughout life. Previous research, using zip code as a proxy for lifetime income, has found that Medicare benefits flow primarily to the most economically advantaged groups, and that the financial returns to Medicare are often higher for the rich than the poor. However, our analysis produces the starkly opposed result that Medicare is an extraordinarily progressive public program, in dollar terms or welfare terms. These new results owe themselves to our measurement of socioeconomic status as an individual's education, rather than the geographically aggregated measures of income used by previous research. We argue that individual education has important practical and conceptual advantages over geographically aggregated measures of income. Our results suggest the crucial importance of accurate poverty measurement in evaluating the progressivity of complex government programs like Medicare or Social Security.     

Changes in income distribution over time in a one-sector neoclassical setting

This paper, which is aimed at explaining the endogeneous changes in the income distribution as an economy grows, extends Darity's model and applies it to the Gini decomposition equation developed by Fei, Ranis and Kuo. It defines two types of families, the rich and the poor, both being allowed to own labor and capital but the former being assumed to own more capital and have a higher savings rate than the latter. Total supply is produced according to a neoclassical production function. Consumption demand is determined by the pattern of income distribution, and the excess of total supply over consumption is available for investment, which is an addition to the physical capital stock as well as an increase in the wealth of the rich and poor families. Over time, both families become more wealthy as the economy grows according to enlarged production capacities, meanwhile the wage rate rises and the return to capital falls as capital deepening proceeds. These, along with the distribution of factor ownership between the poor and the rich family, determines the pattern of income distribution. It is then found that: (a) as the economy grows from an initial low-level per capita income towards a long-run steady-state equilibrium, the changes in income distribution over time may follow a variety of patterns, depending mainly on the magnitude of the elasticity of substitution and the situation of the initial position; and (b) only if (i) the initial distribution of the ownership of capital is comparable to or slightly more concentrated in the hands of the rich family than its long-run steady level, and (ii) the elasticity is less than one, will the changes in income distribution over time be consistent with the Kuznets inverted-U pattern.     

Income mobility of individuals in China and the United States

Although much has been written about annual income inequality in China, little research has been conducted on longer‐run measures of income inequality and on income mobility. This paper compares income mobility of urban individuals in China and the United States in the 1990s. The following questions are taken up: To what extent are measures of annual income inequality misleading indicators of long‐run income inequality? How much income mobility was there in China in the first half of the 1990s and how did this compare with mobility in other countries? Have real income increases been greater for the poor or the rich? How important is the variation in permanent incomes in China and how has this changed?     

The Sins of the Fathers: Intergenerational Income Mobility in China

This paper aims to obtain an accurate estimate of China's intergenerational income mobility and to present evidence on its distributional pattern. Using panel data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) over the period 1989–2009, I find that China is less mobile than most developed countries. Then, I employ five different approaches to investigate the distributional pattern of China's intergenerational mobility across income levels. The results suggest that poor families have relatively high mobility, indicating opportunities for the poor children to escape poverty. Finally, I show that while wealthy fathers are likely to pass on their favorable economic status to their sons, rich sons come from a very wide range of family economic backgrounds.     

Favouritism towards the poor and a discontinuous tax structure

This article aims to theoretically clarify two points. First, even though the government shows favouritism to the poor and wants to exempt low-income taxpayers and to secure the necessary income tax revenue by taxing only high-income taxpayers, the government nevertheless ends up taxing the poor. This is in opposition to favouritism and arises because of the government’s inability to observe the individual taxpayer’s income levels. Second, even without observing each taxpayer’s income level, if favouritism is sufficiently strong, then the government can discontinuously resolve such unintentional taxation.     

社会心态失衡的原因及防范措施

由于收入差距的不断扩大,社会心态逐步失衡,即人们心理上所感受到的贫富差距将事实上的贫富差距又进一步的放大。原因主要有三个方面:其一、一部分人的腐败和非法致富,造成人民群众的强烈不满,并在人们心理上将现实中的贫富差距进一步放大。其二、耕农的比较利益过低、上千万国有企业职工的失业下岗,使传统的基础性阶层产生相对被剥夺感,在某些突发事件的刺激下,会发生失去理性控制的集体行为。其三、贫富两极分化的出现是一个危险的信号。人们关于贫富差距的社会心态发生的变化,不仅影响到人们对社会公正的信念,而且影响到对效率的追求。要建立起与市场经济配套的调节收入分配的国家法律体系,通过各种法律的、经济的和行政的杠杆,缩减贫富分化的差距;必须严格依法调节收入分配;改革不合理的收入分配制度。     

A framework for evaluating operating targets

The objective of this paper is to provide an analytical framework to evaluate the relative effectiveness of reserve or monetary base operating targets. We begin the paper by constructing an IS schedule and an expanded LM schedule. Uncertainty is introduced into the model by including stochastic error terms in the product and money market. Then we detail the impact of the exogeneously determined operating target as a constraint upon the equilibration process in the monetary and real sectors. In particular, the operating target determines the structure of the disturbances in the respective markets and the economic target depending upon how fast the markets clear. Since the deviation of the relevant targets from their mean values depend upon the operating target, the standard deviation of the targets are derived for the alternative operating strategies. Using illustrative macroeconomic and money market parameters, loss functions are calculated to provide a basis to evaluate the relative desirability of reserves and the monetary base as the policy instrument. The stability of various intermediate targets as well as one final target, nominal income, is analyzed as is the crucial role played by required reserve ratios. The robustness of these results is also analyzed for various parametric changes.     

The impact of the Indonesian income tax reform: A CGE analysis

This study evaluates the impacts of Indonesia's recent income tax reforms on key macroeconomic variables, as well as the impacts on poverty and income distribution. It was found that the reductions in personal income tax and corporate income tax increase economic growth under a balanced budget assumption. The policy reforms also lead to a small reduction in the incidence of poverty. However, the policies also lead to an increase in income inequality because the tax cut is more beneficial to households in the highest income categories. It is recommended that future tax cuts should target the urban and rural poor.     

POVERTY AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN BRAZIL1

The article refutes the contention that Brazil's development has not benefited the poor and that rapid growth has had a polarizing effect on the distribution of income. It uses the National Household Expenditure Survey of 1974–75 to try to quantify the extent of poverty and concludes that the incòme levels of the poor have been underestimated in the past. The evidence suggests also that occupational and regional variables are powerful determinants of income stratification. Wage rate statistics convey information about long-term trends in income. The article notes considerable increases in rural wages during the 1970s as well as wage improvements in the urban informal sector. Shifts in the structure of employment have probably been the most powerful cause of economic improvement in Brazil. The enormous absorption of rural-urban migrants occurred without a flooding of the lower income urban categories. Social indicators and statistics referring to ownership of household durable consumer goods corroborate income and labor market evidence to the effect that there has been considerable progress for the poor during the 1970s. The article reviews statistical evidence bearing on distribution. There is little doubt that the distribution of income in Brazil is very skewed. It is not possible, however, to come to conclusions about changes that might have occurred in the degree of inequality over time. Finally, the article includes data on the “distribution of education” and the “distribution of life expectancy” and notes improvement over time in both. This article takes advantage of the Brazilian population census of 1980 to bring up to date some of the statistical material that bears on the issues of poverty and income distribution. First, the article describes the overall context of Brazilian development since 1960. The second part analyzes the extent of poverty in the mid-1970s. The third part deals with trends in wages, employment and selected welfare indicators. The last section briefly summarizes the information relating to income distribution: what is the extent of skewedness and how has it evolved over time?     

China??s growth model and structural unbalance in the open economy

The Chinese economy has been significantly affected by the global financial crisis. Moreover, a rapid decline in growth rate can be mainly attributed to the expenditure structural unbalance, which takes root in its uneven national income distribution. Furthermore, the uneven national income distribution is the result of the extensive pattern of China’s economic growth in the open economy. The extensive pattern is characterized by labor-intensive export-led growth model. The need for high growth rate and fiscal revenue maximization forces local governments to compete against each other to get FDI by undervaluing production factors, resulting in the extensive pattern of growth. From an institutional point of view, uneven social power between government and public, central government and local governments, capital owners and labor force, and so on, can be viewed as the main reason for the extensive pattern of growth and uneven national income distribution. Low wage, which has been the main factor for the comparative advantage, now turns out to be barriers to boosting domestic demand. The technology lag in the manufacturing industry also has a significant negative impact on improving labor productivity and increasing per capita income. Hence, to deal with the recession, not only quantitative easing, but also structural adjustments are needed.