Economic strategies of firms facing asymptotic demand: a case study

This paper is an attempt to determine the relationship between the pattern of growth of demand for consumer goods and the market behaviour of the firms selling them, particularly their advertising expenditures. The demand for many consumer goods may not witness a steady growth over time. Firms selling such products will have a market behaviour that differs in character and path from that of those selling in expending markets. In this article, I intend to analyse the market behaviour of firms producing toilet soap in the Australian economy.     

The rebound effect: An evolutionary perspective

The rebound effect presents a major flaw in to energy conservation policies that aim to reduce energy consumption through energy efficiency development. Economics and energy related disciplines have thus far developed tools to measure such a phenomenon. This paper attempts to explain this seeming paradox using a thermodynamic-evolutionary theoretical framework in addition to the traditional economic approach. We here propose that evolutionary systems, such as biological or even economic systems, may rearrange themselves in a more complex fashion under the pressure of an increasing flux of energy, driven by the higher conversion rate of greater efficiency. Higher complexity, due to a greater energy density rate, counteracts the positive effects of energy efficiency. We investigated this hypothesis in the context of the road freight transport system and the productive structure. The qualitative analysis in this paper, further substantiated by figures, provides a link between the dynamics of production patterns and the effect of efficiency in the light of the macro-economic effects of increased energy demand. The analysis departs from a rigorous investigation of the actual energy efficiency evolution in the road freight transport system to develop through a survey of the subsequent worldwide economic revolution in the production system. It is then shown how outsourcing, the key feature of globalization, can be identified as the main source of traffic density growth. Finally, four paradigms are used to stress how the shift in the production system must be considered a leap in structural complexity that consequently serves to increase the frequency of components’ interactions.     

Economic selection and the role of government: Some lessons from evolutionary biology

The economic system is not divinely ordained. It is the product of human beings and can therefore be questioned and altered if necessary. The Reagan and Bush administrations elevated the status of those extreme right economists who wish to preserve privilege by claiming the divine right of market outcomes. It is the argument of this paper that this divine right has its roots in a Victorian view of natural selection. It is instructive to recognize that this view no longer holds sway in biology. It is even less true in the economic sphere.     

Economic burden of contrast-induced nephropathy: implications for prevention strategies

SUMMARY

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is the third most common cause of hospital-acquired acute renal failure. There is increasing evidence that CIN has a significant adverse impact on patient morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to estimate the in-hospital and 1-year direct healthcare costs related to CIN. Using the values obtained from the literature review, a decision analytic model was developed to estimate the in-hospital and 1-year costs of CIN. Patients who develop CIN are more likely to experience adverse events, to undergo prolonged dialysis, to have longer hospital and intensive care unit stays and to have higher mortality rates. The average in-hospital cost of CIN is $10,345. The 1-year cost of treating a patient with CIN is $11,812. Overall, the economic burden associated with CIN is high. Adopting targeted interventions will reduce the incidence of CIN and its overall economic burden.     

The use of modeling tools for policy in evolutionary environments

This is a position paper on the possibilities of informing the (economic and environmental) policy debate by using quantitative evolutionary models. I argue that an evolutionary worldview implies that the existing quantitative modeling tools used for policy analysis are problematic. Then I summarize the main elements of an evolutionary way of analysis, and the way in which it can be incorporated into quantitative models. I conclude with an outline of a proposal for how to apply the ideas in the analysis of energy transitions.     

Economic (dis)integration in the presence of evolutionary learning

We use a two-factor, two-sector model to study the effects of economic integration and its reversal in the presence of input-generated external economies in one of the sectors. The equilibrium selection problem that arises is solved by applying a simple trial-and-error learning rule. Economic integration can take individual economies ridden with coordination failures to better equilibria, i.e., can solve the coordination problem. We show that integration (and disintegration) may generate cycles in wages, rentals and the sectoral allocation of factors.JEL Classification: F15, F16, F37 Corespondence to: Diego Méndez-Carbajo     

Optimal modularity: a demonstration of the evolutionary advantage of modular architectures

Modularity is an important concept in evolutionary theorizing but lack of a consistent definition renders study difficult. Using the generalized NK-model of fitness landscapes, we differentiate modularity from decomposability. Modular and decomposable systems are both composed of subsystems, but in the former, these subsystems are connected via interface standards, while in the latter, subsystems are completely isolated. We derive the optimal level of modularity, which minimizes the time required to globally optimize a system, both for the case of two-layered systems and for the general case of multi-layered hierarchical systems containing modules within modules. This derivation supports the hypothesis of modularity as a mechanism to increase the speed of evolution. Our formal definition clarifies the concept of modularity and provides a framework and an analytical baseline for further research.     

Dismantling terrorist networks: Evaluating strategic options using agent-based modeling

Dismantling dark networks remains a critical goal for the peace and security of our society. Terrorist networks are the most prominent instantiation of dark networks, and they are alive and well. Attempts to preemptively disrupt these networks and their activities have met with both success and failure. In this paper, we examine the impacts of four common strategies for dismantling terrorist networks. The four strategies are: leader-focused, grassroots, geographic, and random. Each of these strategies has associated pros and cons, and each has different impacts on the structure and capabilities of a terrorist network. Employing a computational experimentation methodology, we simulate a terrorist network and test the effects of each strategy on the resiliency of that network. In addition, we test scenarios in which the terrorist network has (or does not have) information about an impending attack. Our work takes a structural perspective to the challenge of addressing terrorist networks. Specifically, we show how various strategies impact the structure of the network in terms of its resiliency and capacity to carry out future attacks. This paper also provides a valuable overview of how to use agent-based modeling for the study of complex problems in the terrorism, conflict studies, and security study domains.     

Economic and environmental efficiency using a social accounting matrix

This paper aims to show the utility of the so-called Social Accounting Matrix and Environmental Accounts (SAMEA) for economic and environmental efficiency analysis. The article uses the SAMEA for Spain in 2000, applied to water resources and greenhouse gas emissions. This matrix is used as a central core of a multisectorial model of economic and environmental performance, and it calculates the denominated “domestics SAMEA multipliers” and their decomposition into characteristic, direct, indirect and induced effects. These multipliers show some evaluation of economic and environmental efficiency. Also, we present an application of these multipliers that demonstrates that there is no causal interrelation between those sectors with higher economic backward linkages and those with higher environmental deterioration backward linkages.     

Alternative unit root testing strategies using the Fourier approximation

Two alternatives to  and  Fourier unit root testing strategy, which incorporates pretesting for nonlinearity, are considered. One is based on the union of rejection (UR) approach, and the other is a hybrid strategy that combines the UR approach with the use of extra information from nonlinearity pretesting. Simulation results show that the two proposed strategies, especially the hybrid, frequently outperform the original pretesting strategy.     

正确把握经济走势实现平稳快速增长

2003年中国经济增长存在有局部过热的特点。新一轮经济增长周期是我们在社会主义市场经济体制下宏观调控中遇到的第一个重要关口。局部过热会引起局部的、结构性物价上涨。而若发展到全局过热,仍会引起全面的通货膨胀。因此,要适时适度地进行宏观调控,保持经济继续平稳、较快地增长;在微观层面上,企业要有应对市场的安全应急机制。     

经济发展战略的灵魂：树立道德经济行为理念

不道德经济行为主要表现为：个人的不道德经济行为,组织的不道德经济行为,社会经济决策管理的不道德经济行为,为了预防与杜绝不道德经济行为的发生,必须全方位树立和完善道德经济行为的理念,以规范经济行为,     

Pitfalls in the modeling of labor market flows: a reappraisal

ABSTRACT

We discuss the relevance of the internationally adopted methodology for modelling labour market flows and comparing labour market flexibility. This is based on a two-state labour market model that neglects inactivity and uses aggregate stock data to derive transition rates. Traditionally, the results suggest that continental European labour markets are inflexible and unable to adjust quickly to aggregate demand or supply shocks compared with their Anglo-Saxon counterparts. This evidence has driven us to gain a better understanding of the relevance of such a modelling approach and critically discuss its main methodological hypothesis. We relax its assumptions by including inactivity and by using flow data for the period 2010–2017. We compare the results thus obtained with transition rates derived using a three-state labour market model for France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. These countries represent the institutional settings of continental Europe on the one hand and Anglo-Saxon nations on the other. The implied transition rates are much higher, even in continental Europe, when inactivity is considered, thus suggesting that conclusions derived using an incomplete representation of the labour market are misleading. Inactivity therefore plays a crucial role and its inclusion provides a more exhaustive picture of labour mobility.     

An economic evaluation of tofacitinib for the treatment of moderately-to-severely active ulcerative colitis: modeling the cost of treatment strategies in the United States

Abstract

Aims: To evaluate the cost differences between a treatment strategy including tofacitinib (TOFA) vs treatment strategies including adalimumab (ADA), golimumab (GOL), infliximab (IFX), and vedolizumab (VEDO) among all patients with moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis (UC) (further stratified by patients naïve/exposed to tumor necrosis factor inhibitors [TNFis]).

Materials and methods: An Excel-based decision-analytic model was developed to evaluate costs from the perspective of a third-party US payer over 2 years. Efficacy and safety parameters were taken from prescribing information and published trials. All patients started induction therapy on the first treatment in the strategy and continued if efficacy criteria were met and no major adverse event occurred (in which cases they proceeded to the next treatment in the strategy).

Results: The cost per member per month (PMPM) of the TOFA–>IFX–>VEDO–>GOL strategy ($1.11) was lower than that of the ADA–>IFX–>VEDO–>GOL strategy ($1.34; Δ = $?0.23) among the TNFi-naïve population (n?=?204 patients out of a plan of one million members). Similarly, the use of TOFA before ADA (i.e. TOFA–>ADA–>IFX–> VEDO) was also associated with lower PMPM costs than the use of ADA before TOFA (i.e. ADA–>TOFA–>IFX–>VEDO): $1.15 vs $1.25 (Δ = $?0.10). Similar, and often larger, differences were observed in both the overall moderate-to-severe population and the TNFi-exposed population. Sensitivity analyses resulted in the same conclusions.

Limitations: Our model relied on efficacy data from prescribing information and published trials, which were not head-to-head and slightly differed with respect to methods. Additionally, our model used representative minor and major ADRs (and the associated costs) to represent toxicity management, which was a simplifying assumption.

Conclusions: This analysis, the first of its kind to evaluate TOFA vis-à-vis other advanced therapies in the US, suggests the early use of TOFA among both TNFi-naïve and TNFi-failure patients results in lower PMPM costs compared with other treatment alternatives.     

Estimation of forest values using choice modeling: An application to Spanish forests

This paper presents a Choice Modeling application of forest goods and services valuation for an afforestation program in the Northeast of Spain. The results from a random parameter logit model reveal that, on average, individuals would annually pay an average of 11.79 euros for the forests to sequester 68,000 tones of CO₂, 0.12 euros for delaying the loss of land productivity for ten years, and 6.33 euros from picnic users for being allowed to picnic in the new forests. On the other hand, individuals would experience a loss in welfare equivalent to − 9.67 euros if four-wheel driving is allowed in the new forests. Finally, being allowed to pick mushrooms in the new forests is valued at an average of 12.82 euros by those who live in rural areas.     

Economic Regulation: a review of issues

This article surveys a range of issues relating to economic regulation. It begins by examining market and state failures which provide the basis for arguments in support of regulation. Concentrating on natural monopolies, the article outlines the main forms of economic regulation, namely rate–of–return or cost–of–service regulation, price–cap regulation, and sliding scale regulation, a hybrid between price–cap and rate–of–return approaches. Reference is made to the broad phases that need to be considered in the evolution of natural monopoly regulation. These are concerned with regulating the incumbent monopoly, promoting and policing the development of competition, and maintaining competition once it has been introduced. The last phase may be better served through the use of effective national competition laws rather than dedicated sector regulation. The article also examines the range of factors that are likely to affect the economic efficiency and effectiveness of regulation. These involve a mixture of economic, political and governance conditions.