话说准备金率下诟

仅准备金率下调是远远不够的欢迎银根开始松动：准备金率下调0．5％2011年11月30日晚,显然是事先约定的,中国人民银行与世界六大国央行一起出手,松动银根,向社会注入流动性。央行宣布下调存款准备金率0．5个百分点,这是三年来第一次下调。但现在21％的存款准备金率依然是当今世界各国中最高的了,因此,以后必然还会下调多次。     

Short-run monetary control: Evidence under a non-borrowed reserve operating procedure

This paper examines two issues — the prediction and short-run control of the money stock — associated with the experience following the Federal Reserve's adoption of a non-borrowed reserve-oriented operating procedure in October 1979. Regarding predictability, our analysis suggests that econometric models offer no improvement over the Board's judgmental forecasting procedure in terms of a lower multiplier forecast error. Regarding the question of whether alternative operating targets would have lowered monthly variability in the money stock, our findings suggest that neither a total reserve nor a monetary base operating target would have enhanced the precision of short-run monetary control relative to a non-borrowed reserve operating target.     

A note on the neutrality of temporary monetary disturbances

In the rational expectations analysis of Lucas and Barro, the quantity of money is subject to random shocks that are specified to be unanticipated and permanent in character. The present note provides some simple examples of alternative money supply specifications that lead to non-neutrality of perceived temporary monetary growth through the channel of expected inflation. Subsequently, the discussion demonstrates that this non-neutrality is not robust to an alternative specification of private monetary behavior, the permanent balance model. The key difference is that the initial model involves commodity supply and demand which depend on current real balances while in the subsequent model these depend on permanent balances. Some final remarks are directed to the idea that the distinction between current and permanent balances in this simple model could be linked to alternative roles of money in more detailed, optimizing analyses.     

存款准备金率后续调整路径探析

本文在分析金融机构流动性的基础上,对今年下半年公开市场操作与存款准备金率调整如何协同吞吐基础货币作了粗浅的探讨,展望了存款准备金率后续调整路径,并对一年期和三年期央票的发行规模及利率进行了预测。     

A note on managing deposit flows with cash and futures market decisions

As deposit market become less regulated, financial intermediaries must focus more of their attention on the explicit pricing of deposit accounts. An implication of pricing deposits is that the intermediary faces a random source of funds when future deposit supplies are unknown. This note shows that financial futures contracts can be used to hedge the risk of deposit withdrawals, allowing the financial firm to set lower deposit rates than it would without futures trading. A model of risk averse banking behavior is constructed to determine the relationship between hedging deposit withdrawals and setting deposit rates. Using the certificate of deposit futures contract to hedge demand and savings deposit withdrawals, an empirical application of the model reveals that the possible gains in profitability from setting deposit rates and hedging withdrawals are small but statistically significant.     

关于货币政策长期利率目标制研究

央行直接调节长期利率是救助此次国际金融危机的重要手段。文章综合实务界和理论界观点,分析常规货币政策框架和非常规货币政策框架下,中央银行调节长期利率的不同机制和效果;在此基础上,对央行能否将长期利率调节作为常规货币政策工具的相关研究进展进行综述和评析。     

A study of a monetary system with a pegged discount rate under different market structures

This paper analyzes a monetary system typical of many European countries, in which the Central Bank carries out monetary policy by pegging the discount rate and then allowing unlimited advances at that rate. The differential effects of monopoly and competition in the banking system are explored, and the responsiveness of the system to policy tools and exogenous shocks is analyzed. The standard ‘money multiplier’ approach is shown to be inappropriate for this kind of system.     

Natural hazards and deposit behavior at financial institutions: A note

There have been few studies of the effect of natural disasters upon either individual economic units or financial institutions. The present paper is concerned with the question of the evidence as to the deposit experience of financial institutions following a sizeable natural disaster. The deposit data we use consist of observations from seven individual savings and loan associations and eight commercial banks in four sizeable 1970s U.S. natural disasters. Basically, there is no evidence of a run. In most cases, there is a significant increase in deposits.     

A note on the optimal control of a cash balance problem

This paper provides an analytical solution to a cash management problem when cash income and demand are described by Compound Poisson processes. The paper generalizes past results in the cash management literature to arbitrary income and demand distribution functions. Further, our results can be applied as well in the area of banking. Throughout the paper we restrict attention to the family of control barrier policies. These consist in hedging cash up to a critical level and investing all incoming cash exceeding this level. We employ a long-run average cost criterion to determine an optimal control barrier. A diffusion approximation of the cash level process (income less demand) is used to obtain a simpler expression for the average cost and to yield a closed form solution to the optimal control barrier. For demonstration purposes, an example is resolved.     

Instrument instability and short-term monetary control

The literature on instrument instability tends support to a policy of smoothing interest rates: it contends that rigid adherence to a monetary rule would bring about explosive interest-rate movements. This contention is examined using a simple model which incorporates rational expectations; the results suggest that instrument instability is associated with interest-rate smoothing rather than with short-term control of the money supply. Furthermore, policy that attempts to stabilize interest rates may itself account for empirical findings which have hitherto been viewed as evidence that instrument instability would occur if the money supply were closely controlled.     

Financial intermediation,reserve requirements,and inside money: A general equilibrium analysis

Reserve requirements are examined in a general equilibrium context. The paper develops a simple general equilibrium model that includes diverse opportunities for investment and a role for financial intermediaries. Two versions of the model are considered. One is a thought experiment in which currency serves purely to satisfy legal reserve requirements; the other is more realistic. The model is used to analyze the comparative static effects of changes in reserve requirements, the effects of changes in other parameters of the economy in the presence of reserve requirements, and some qualitative issues raised by reserve requirements.     

Deposit rate ceilings and monetary transmission in the US

Establishing the existence and nature of changes in the conduct and transmission of monetary policy is key in understanding the remarkable macroeconomic performance of the US since the mid-1980s. This paper presents evidence on a phenomenon of disintermediation occurring during the major recessions in the 1960s and 1970s, but absent ever since, and shows that disintermediation is closely linked to the existence of deposit rate ceilings under regulation Q. In a monetary DSGE model that incorporates deposit rate ceilings as occasionally binding constraints, the regulation alters the behavior of money aggregates and exacerbates the drop in economic activity following a monetary tightening. The results of a threshold VAR lend support to the main theoretical predictions of the model.     

Capital flows,exchange rate management and monetary policy

Capital inflows have brought substantial macro and financial benefits; at the same time, the size and nature of capital inflows have complicated macroeconomic management in recipient countries. Multiple concerns have produced multiple responses by countries to capital inflows. Countries have pursued a combination of policies – let the exchange rate appreciate, accumulate foreign exchange reserves, with or without sterilization, liberalize outflows, tighten monetary and fiscal policies and in a few cases impose capital controls on inflows either directly or through prudential regulation. Experience shows that there are no corner solutions and countries have to resort to a judicious mix of these policies depending on the prevailing circumstances.     

Rent control with rationing by search costs: A note

This note derives the long-run implications of rent controls when rent-controlled apartments are implicitly rationed to tenants who are more efficient in searching for apartments in the controlled sector. Rent controls are shown to involve transfers that essentially are from some to other tenants, as well as dead-weight losses due to higher search costs that are borne by tenants. Key to this analysis is the condition that, at the margin, rent plus the higher cost of search for a rent-controlled apartment must equal rent in the noncontrolled sector.     

A note on bundling budgets to achieve management control

By its very nature, management control research can be complex and difficult to understand, and hence challenging to introduce into the classroom. Nevertheless, it is important for accounting instruction to retain a connection between teaching and research. This note provides guidance on how recent findings in the theory of management control can be introduced into the classroom. The general approach is to present findings in the academic literature using a combination of numerical examples and classroom experiments. We use this two-pronged approach to illustrate that the bundling of budget proposals mitigates management they in a setting where control issues arise because subordinates are privately informed and self-interested. In our experience this approach stimulates student interest and increases the likelihood of successful implementation in undergraduate and graduate classes.     

Interest rate dynamics and the term structure: A note

The Brennan and Schwartz two-factor model of the term structure is re-examined using constant-duration long-term yields in place of the fluctuating-duration consol yields, and additional stability is achieved in the empirical estimations. The model is then reformulated to examine more closely the relationship between changes in long and short rates of interest. It is found that movements in the short rate of interest are related to movements in the long rate, the spread between the long and short rates, and the prior movement in the long rate. The model is then tested for its out-of-sample predictive ability and found to possess a modest amount of predictive power.     

Financial intermediaries and monetary control: An example

Gurley, Shaw, Tobin, and Brainard argued that uncontrolled financial intermediaries impede monetary control as measured by the short-term effects of open-market operations on interest rates. But their models neglected the fundamental role of intermediaries — that of connecting financial markets by reducing information and transactions costs. It is possible to understand the impact of intermediaries only by first considering as imperfect system containing forces that induce their development. This paper presents conditions in which the introduction of intermediaries — and the accompanying increased access of traders to a diversity of investments — results in potentially more effective official control of interest rates.     

Interest rate pass-through,monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability

In this paper we analyze equilibrium determinacy in a sticky price model in which the pass-through from policy rates to retail interest rates is sluggish and potentially incomplete. In addition, we empirically characterize and compare the interest rate pass-through process in the euro area and the U.S. We find that if the pass-through is incomplete in the long run, the standard Taylor principle is insufficient to guarantee equilibrium determinacy. Our empirical analysis indicates that this result might be particularly relevant for bank-based financial systems as for instance that in the euro area.