Nominal uncertainty,real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework: Implications for monetary policy

This study examines the dynamic causal links and volatility spillovers of inflation, output growth and their uncertainties in four South Asian countries, namely, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka by utilizing asymmetric GARCH family models. Our empirical evidence supports a number of important conclusions. There is an overwhelming support for Friedman-Ball hypothesis of positive inflation-uncertainty trade-off for all countries excluding India and Sri Lanka. The Cukierman-Meltzer’s idea that inflation uncertainty generates inflation, hold for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka only and the Holland’s hypothesis of negative influence of inflation uncertainty on level inflation is supported by India only. The positive influence of output uncertainty on inflation (Devereux (1989) hypothesis) is supported by all countries excluding Bangladesh while nominal uncertainty (real uncertainty) has negative (positive) effect on output growth in Pakistan (Bangladesh). Output growth is reducing real uncertainty in all countries excluding Sri Lanka and nominal uncertainty in Pakistan only. There is significant negative relationship between inflation and output growth for Pakistan only while real uncertainty is positively (negatively) related with nominal uncertainty in India (Bangladesh). The estimated results are almost robust with the simultaneous estimation procedure for testing the main hypotheses. In general, there is asymmetric effect and persistence of the GARCH parameters for all countries. The study suggests that the concerned central banks should pay more attention to the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty and should focus their monetary policy strategy on stabilizing both output growth and inflation.     

Internal governance,legal institutions and bank loan contracting around the world

Using a sample of non-U.S. firms from 22 countries during 2003–2007, we examine the effect of firm-level governance on various features of loan contracting in the international loan market. We find that banks charge lower loan rates, offer larger and longer-maturity loans, and impose fewer restrictive covenants to better-governed firms. We also find that the favorable effect of firm-level governance on some loan contracting terms is stronger in countries with strong legal institutions than in countries with weak legal institutions. Our results suggest that banks view a borrower's internal governance as a factor that mitigates agency and information risk, and that country-level legal institutions and firm-level governance mechanisms complement each other in influencing loan contracting terms.     

The voluntary adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards and loan contracting around the world

Using a sample of non-U.S. borrowers from 40 countries during 1997 through 2005, this paper investigates the effect of the voluntary adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on price and nonprice terms of loan contracts and loan ownership structure in the international loan market. Our results reveal the following. First, banks charge lower loan rates to IFRS adopters than to non-adopters. The difference in loan rates in excess of a benchmark rate between the two groups is about 20 basis points for all loans and nearly 31 basis points for London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR)-based loans. Second, banks impose more favorable nonprice terms on IFRS adopters, particularly less restrictive covenants. We also provide evidence suggesting that banks are more willing to extend credit to IFRS adopters through larger loans and longer maturities. Finally, IFRS adopters attract significantly more foreign lenders participating in loan syndicates than non-adopters.     

Transitions in a globalising world

The increasing complexity of our global society means that sustainable development cannot be addressed from a single perspective or scientific discipline. By using the concept of transitions, we examine current and future tensions between welfare, well-being and the environment, and focus on four major issues that are of global importance: two of our key natural resources, water and biodiversity; the health of human populations; and the developments related to global tourism. In our global assessment, we base ourselves on the most recent scenario efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Future developments are explored along the lines of four development paths (scenario groups), defined along two dimensions (global versus regional dynamics and emphasising economic objectives versus environmental and equity objectives.     

深市上市公司股东及实际控制人分析

股东信息是上市公司信息的重要内容之一.本文通过分析深市公司股东总体分布特点、机构投资者状况、第一大股东(或实际控制人)性质和行业分布状况、股东变更等资料,发现目前深圳市场价值投资理念已经确立,股权结构亟待调整,实际控制人相关信息披露仍需进一步完善.     

Communities in a world of open systems

In the past, communities tended to be closed systems with relatively clear boundaries, stable memberships, and few linkages to other communities. We are now entering into an ‘age of open systems.' Mobility creates new communities and kinds of communities. The impacts of mobility are far less than those of information and communications technology. Cyberspace has become a new kind of social terrain, crowded with ‘virtual communities.' Television and radio create communities of people thinking and talking about the same things. Both mobility and the growth of communications networks reduce the predominance of geography as a force in shaping community. Many communities are much more fluid, and some are placeless. There are many different kinds of social groups and networks that people describe with the word ‘community.' Most people are multi-community individuals, with many memberships, and many kinds of memberships. Although the world's major religions still have some historic identification with specific regions, those geographic attachments are no longer as clear as they once were, and these religions are tending to become open systems. Some people prefer relatively closed social systems, while others flourish in freer environments. Choice is one of the most powerful forces in the lives of people being exposed to the forces of globalization. Community will continue to be a profound human need but will be redefined, perhaps many times over.     

Nominal and true cost of loan collateral

This paper explores costs and proceeds from loan collateral in the credit market with ex-ante asymmetric information when collateral value and the probability of project success fluctuate. A borrower is willing to pledge collateral if (i) its future value is correlated with the probability of project success, or (ii) its value fluctuates strongly, or (iii) it is funded with loan capital. When one of the conditions is satisfied, in contrast to Bester (1985), a high-risk borrower may be more willing to pledge collateral than a low-risk borrower. The paper is related to topical subprime crises and real estate collateral.     

The Changing Role of Nominal Government Bonds in Asset Allocation

The covariance between nominal bonds and stocks has varied considerably over recent decades and has even switched sign. It has been predominantly positive in periods such as the late 1970s and early 1980s when the economy has experienced supply shocks and the central bank has lacked credibility. It has been predominantly negative in periods such as the 2000s when investors have feared weak aggregate demand and deflation. Nominal bonds are attractive to short-term equity investors when these bonds are negatively correlated with stocks, as has been the case during the 2000s and especially during the downturn of 2007–2008. They are attractive to conservative long-term investors when long-term inflationary expectations are stable, for then these bonds are close substitutes for inflation-indexed bonds that are riskless in the long term.     

Nominal shocks in monopolistically competitive markets: An experiment

A market experiment examines the capacity of price and information frictions to explain real responses to nominal price shocks. Results indicate that both price and information frictions impede the response to a nominal shock, as predicted by the standard dynamic adjustment models. Observed adjustment delays, however, far exceed predicted levels. Results of a pair of subsequent treatments indicate that a combination of announcing the shock privately to all sellers (rather than publicly) and a failure of many sellers to best respond to their expectations explains the observed adjustment inertia.     

Modelling and prediction in a complex world

A complex system is an entity, coherent in some recognisable way but whose elements, interactions, and dynamics generate structures and admit surprise and novelty that cannot be defined a priori. Complex systems are more than the sum of their parts, and a consequence of this is that any model of their structure is necessarily incomplete and partial. Models thus represent simplifications in which salient parts and processes are simulated, and given this definition, many models will exist of any particular system. In this chapter, we explore the impact of this complexity on validating models of such systems. We begin with definitions and then identify key issues as being concerned with the characterisation of system equilibrium, system environment, and the way systems and their elements extend and scale. As our perspective on these issues changes, then so do our models with implications for their testing and validation. We argue that changes in the meaning of validity, posed by the use to which such models are to be put, are central to this debate, drawing these ideas together as conclusions about the limits posed to prediction in complex systems.     

Where value lives in a networked world

While many management thinkers proclaim an era of radical uncertainty, authors Sawhney and Parikh assert that the seemingly endless upheavals of the digital age are more predictable than that: today's changes have a common root, and that root lies in the nature of intelligence in networks. Understanding the patterns of intelligence migration can help companies decipher and plan for the inevitable disruptions in today's business environment. Two patterns in network intelligence are reshaping industries and organizations. First, intelligence is decoupling--that is, modern high-speed networks are pushing back-end intelligence and front-end intelligence toward opposite ends of the network, making the ends the two major sources of potential profits. Second, intelligence is becoming more fluid and modular. Small units of intelligence now float freely like molecules in the ether, coalescing into temporary bundles whenever and wherever necessary to solve problems. The authors present four strategies that companies can use to profit from these patterns: arbitrage allows companies to move intelligence to new regions or countries where the cost of maintaining intelligence is lower; aggregation combines formerly isolated pieces of infrastructure intelligence into a large pool of shared infrastructure provided over a network; rewiring allows companies to connect islands of intelligence by creating common information backbones; and reassembly allows businesses to reorganize pieces of intelligence into coherent, personalized packages for customers. By being aware of patterns in network intelligence and by acting rather than reacting, companies can turn chaos into opportunity, say the authors.     

Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

I characterize optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a stochastic New Keynesian model when nominal interest rates may occasionally hit the zero lower bound. The benevolent policymaker controls the short‐term nominal interest rate and the level of government spending. Under discretionary policy, accounting for fiscal stabilization policy eliminates to a large extent the welfare losses associated with the presence of the zero bound. Under commitment, the gains associated with the use of the fiscal policy tool remain modest, even though fiscal stabilization policy is part of the optimal policy mix.     

Welcome to a non-Black-Scholes world

Jean-Phillipe Bouchaud and Marc Potters, citing option markets and risk awareness, challenge the view that the Black-Scholes model needs little improvement - in fact, it should be seen as a special case of a more general theory.     

Interpretation of uncertainty expressions: a cross-national study

This study investigates the effect of language-culture and linguistic translation on the interpretation of verbal uncertainty expressions found in International Accounting Standards. Data are collected from US Certified Public Accountants and German-speaking Wirtschaftsprüfer (chartered or certified accountants) to test three hypotheses. One group of German speakers evaluated uncertainty terms expressed in German and another group in English. The results indicate significant differences in interpretation across the three groups. Some differences are attributed to a language-culture effect and others to a translation effect, with the language-culture effect being more pervasive. These results raise the question of whether International Accounting Standards can be applied consistently across language-cultures.     

The pricing of capital assets in a multiperiod world

This paper proposes a general framework for the pricing of capital assets in a multiperiod world. Under quite general conditions, the analysis shows that the equilibrium expected nominal return on any asset can always be expressed as the sum of the risk-free rate and various risk premiums. The first risk premium is identical to the usual risk premium in the Sharpe-Lintner-Mossin capital asset pricing model. The mathematical forms of all the remaining risk premiums are identical even though each individual risk premium may be present for a different reason.     

The IMF in a world of private capital markets

In analyzing the IMF attempts to stabilize private capital flows, we contrast cases where banks and bondholders do the lending. Consistent with banks’ natural advantage in monitoring, they reduce spreads as they obtain more information through repeat transactions with borrowers. By comparison, repeat borrowing has little influence in bond markets, where publicly-available information dominates. But spreads on bonds are lower when they are issued in conjunction with an IMF-supported program, as if the existence of a program conveys positive information to bondholders. The influence of IMF monitoring in bond markets is especially pronounced for countries vulnerable to liquidity crises.     

Control your inventory in a world of lean retailing

As retailers adopt lean retailing practices, manufacturers are feeling the pinch. Retailers no longer place large seasonal orders for goods in advance-instead, they require ongoing replenishment of stock, forcing manufacturers to predict demand and then hold substantial inventories indefinitely. Manufacturers now carry the cost of inventory risk--the possibility that demand will dry up and goods will have to be sold below cost. And as product proliferation increases, customer demand becomes harder to predict. Most manufacturers apply one inventory policy for all stock-keeping units in a product line. But the inventory demand for SKUs within the same product line can vary significantly. SKUs with high volume typically have little variation in weekly sales, while slow-selling SKUs can vary enormously in weekly sales. The greater the variation, the larger the inventory the manufacturer must hold relative to an SKU's expected weekly sales. By differentiating inventory policies at the SKU level, manufacturers can reduce inventories for the high-volume SKUs and increase them for the low-volume ones--and thereby improve the profit-ability of the entire line. SKU-level differentiation can also be applied to sourcing strategies. Instead of producing all the SKUs for a product line at a single location, either offshore at low cost or close to market at higher cost, manufacturers can typically do better by going for a mixed allocation. Low-variation goods should be produced mainly offshore, while high-variation goods are best made close to markets.     

Public education spending in a globalized world:

This paper studies the effect of globalization on public expenditures allocated to different stages of education. First, we derive theoretically that globalization’s influence on education expenditures depends on the type of government. For benevolent governments, the model suggests that expenditures for higher education will increase and expenditures for basic education will decline with deepening economic integration. For Leviathan governments, on the other hand, the effects of globalization on public education spending cannot be unambiguously predicted. In the second part of the paper, we empirically analyze globalization’s influence on primary, secondary, and tertiary education expenditures with panel data covering 104 countries over the 1992–2006 period. The results indicate that globalization has led in both industrialized and developing countries to more spending for secondary and tertiary and to less spending for primary education.