Non‐linear effect of exchange rate volatility on exports: the role of financial sector development in emerging East Asian economies

This paper empirically examines the role of financial sector development in influencing the impact of exchange rate volatility on the exports of five emerging East Asian countries – China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand – using a GMM‐IV estimation method. The results indicate that the effect of exchange rate volatility on exports is conditional on the level of financial sector development. The less financially developed an economy, the more its exports are adversely affected by exchange rate volatility. In addition, a stable exchange rate seems to be a necessary condition to achieve export promotion via a currency depreciation in these economies.     

Analysis of the primary information sectors of Korea and Japan using computable general equilibrium models

Short-run computable general equilibrium models for Korea and Japan in 1980 are used to probe the relative attractiveness of primary information sector (henceforth, PRIS) expansion from both an inter- and intra-country perspective. Five scenarios are modelled: increases in PRIS and ‘other’ exports, domestic demand and PRIS protection, and a shift from export to domestic demand based development. The models do not reflect the ‘real’ behaviour of the two economies but are aimed at assessing the effects of differences in economic structures. The results reinforce and extend those obtained in previous input-output studies. The comparison of sectoral impacts suggests that PRIS expansion is more attractive the ‘rest of economy’ expansion, in both economies. Moreover, a general domestic demand increase produces relatively stronger growth in PRIS than in ‘other’ output. The results also indicate that Korea has a ‘structural advantage’ for PRIS expansion compared to Japan. Lastly, the Japanese economy seems much better suited than the Korean economy for a shift in development strategy.     

Effects of Primary Exports on Industrial Exports and GDP: Empirical Evidence

This paper analyzes the effects of the growth of nonfuel primary exports on the growth of industrial exports and GDP in 74 economies between 1965 and 1992. There is clear evidence of positive effects, both in the short term and in the long term, of the growth of primary exports on the growth of industrial exports and GDP in more than two-thirds of the economies. Therefore, governments in developing countries should not discriminate against the export of primary products, as some earlier studies suggest. Instead, they should adhere to policies that aim at export promotion.     

The Export Performance of the 2004 EU Enlargement Economies since the 1990s: a Constant Market Share Analysis

This study focuses on the export performance of the 2004 European Union (EU) enlargement economies to the EU15 between 1990 and 2013. The long time span analysed allows to capture different stages in the relationship of these new members with the EU before and after accession. The study is based on the constant market share methodology of decomposing an ex-post country’s export performance into different effects. Two constant market share analyses were selected in order to disentangle (i) the growth rate of exports and (ii) the growth rate of exports relatively to the world. Both approaches are applied to manufactured products grouping products in different classifications of sectors. Results provide information on export performance for the ten economies individually considered, including the importance of each EU15 destination market.     

Diversification and Specialization Paradox in Developing Country Trade

This paper examines and resolves a puzzling issue associated with less developed country (LDC) export compositions. Since the newly industrialized country (NIC) takeoff during the early 1970s, LDC exports have involved an increasingly broader and diversified export base. Yet trade theories, both “old” that focus on classic comparative advantage, and “new” which rely on scale economies, lead to expectations of growing specialization as a concomitant of LDC takeoff. This study examines periods of rapid growth and structural transformation of trade for a representative group of LDCs covering a wide geographic and temporal sample.     

Export sophistication and the terms of trade of the developing and emerging countries

The question of the terms of trade has not yet been studied by the new empirical literature on the export sophistication, which focuses only on its effect on economic growth. The contribution of this paper is to investigate whether the increase in the export sophistication is terms of trade worsening or improving for the developing and emerging economies. Importantly, we find that the increase in the sophistication of the developing countries’ exports is accompanied by a deterioration of their terms of trade.     

Structural change in exports and economic growth: cointegration and causality analysis for Spain (1961–2000)

The Spanish export-led growth hypothesis is re-examined from the trade liberalization process initiated four decades ago. For this purpose both the export expansion and the progression from ‘traditional’ exports to manufactured and semimanufactured exports are taken into consideration. A new evidence is reported for the above period. Alongside a feedback between aggregate exports and real output, it has been proved that the structural transformation in export composition has also become a key factor for Spain's economic development.     

Export expansion and economic growth: Further empirical evidence

This paper examines the relationship between export expansion and economic growth in a sample of seventy-three developing countries, using data for the period 1960–1978. It shows that in both groups of low- and middle-income countries, export expansion is associated with better economic performance and that an important cause of this association is the favorable impact of exports on total factor productivity. The paper also demonstrates that the effect of commodity composition of exports on the relationship between export expansion and economic growth is substantial in more advanced developing economies.     

The cost and composition of Indian exports

India has a history of export promotion policies extending back into the 1950's. These policies seem to have been applied without regard to comparative advantage and this study indicates the high cost of India's disregard for economic efficiency. Using the domestic resource cost concept as the criterion for measuring relative export efficiency, the present structure of Indian exports is examined on both the sectoral and product level. The results show not only an unacceptably wide divergence in the domestic resource cost of exports on the margin - indicating a misallocation of resources in the export sector - but also an export incentive system which fails to select India's most efficient exports.     

Exchange rate and foreign GDP elasticities of Swiss exports across sectors and destination countries

This article uses a detailed breakdown of Swiss trade flows to identify how the impact of the two main determinants of Switzerland’s exports – foreign demand and the real exchange rate – varies across sectors and export destinations. Our main findings are that (i) both foreign demand and exchange rate elasticities vary substantially across both export sectors and export destinations. (ii) Foreign demand trends are more important for structural considerations than the exchange rate. This is due to the fact that exports of the two largest export sectors are relatively sensitive to long-run foreign demand developments while they are relatively insensitive to changes in the exchange rate. (iii) The sectoral structure of Switzerland’s exports has shifted towards goods that have a lower short-run demand elasticity and a higher long-run demand elasticity. Goods exports are thus less influenced by business cycle fluctuations while they benefit more from long-term growth trends. (iv) The export share of sectors with a relatively low exchange rate elasticity has increased. However, this result is mainly driven by the strong rise in exports of chemicals and pharmaceuticals as well as precision instruments and watches, which are also the two important sectors responsible for the Swiss trade surplus.     

Foreign Exchange Accumulation and the Entrapment of Chinese Monetary Power: Towards a Balanced Growth Regime?

This article criticises the notion that China's foreign exchange reserves have strengthened its monetary power. While some scholars have argued that China's international monetary influence has been ‘entrapped’ by the domestic interests of its export sector, a one-sided focus on the export sector fails to identify the significant constraints on its macroeconomic autonomy. This article proposes an extension of the concept of entrapment that draws attention to the key role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and their domestic fixed-asset investment in its growth regime: China's external monetary dependency – which is understood as both export dependency and the need to maintain foreign exchange accumulation – has been caused by a disparity between fixed-asset investment and private consumption that reflects a redistribution of income from the household sector to the SOE sector. In particular, I expose the SOE sector's rising interests in foreign exchange accumulation by uncovering a mutually reinforcing dynamic between China's external monetary dependence and the financial repression of its banking system. By entrenching an investment-led growth regime that provides key benefits the SOE sector, this dynamic is found to have seriously constrained the macroeconomic policy autonomy of Chinese authorities to rebalance growth away from investments and exports towards private consumption.     

Determinants of India’s Exports

The objective of this paper is to examine the key determinants of India’s exports. The estimated equations show that the two variables influencing India’s export demand are the real effective exchange rate and world exports. The time trend variable which was introduced to take care of the stationarity problem and India’s GDP which is a proxy for availability also are statistically significant. Equations were also estimated at a disaggregated level of commodity groups. The article also focuses on measuring the relative contribution of the variables. For this, a new methodology is proposed. World exports which emerges as the dominant variable is however exogenous to Indian policy makers. This leaves nominal exchange rate as the tool available to policy makers. In the market determination of exchange rate, besides current account deficit, capital flows also play an important part. There is need to moderate the impact of large capital inflows on exchange rate through appropriate intervention so long as we continue to have current account deficit. An appreciating currency will erode the competitiveness of exports. Truly speaking, the critical factor is not so much exchange rate as competitiveness. In this context, maintaining domestic price stability and improving the productivity, particularly of the traded goods sector are equally important.

     

Dutch Disease in Australia: Policy Options for a Three‐Speed Economy

‘Dutch Disease’ refers to the adverse effects through real exchange rate appreciation that the mining boom can have on various export‐ and import‐competing industries. The distinction is made between the booming sector (mining), the lagging sector (exports not part of the booming sector and import‐competing goods and services) and the non‐tradeable sector. What should the government do to reduce this Dutch ‘disease’? The principal options are: do nothing, piecemeal protectionism, moderate exchange rate effects by running a fiscal surplus, combined with lowering the interest rate, and possibly establishing a sovereign wealth fund. The costs of the latter measures may be considerable.     

Growth and dynamics of Australia's education exports

Australia is the third largest global exporter of education services and generated $18.6 billion in 2009–2010. The education sector ranks as the top services exports and number three of all export earners in recent years after coal and iron ore. This study analyses the major determinants of Australia's education exports. Using the Johansen cointegration technique, a stable long run relationship is found between education export earnings, real exchange rate, world income and terms of trade. It is also found that policy reforms relating to opening up the education sector from the mid 1980s had a positive growth effect on the sector.     

中国经济增长、外商直接投资和出口贸易的互动实证分析

本文使用28个省1978年到2000年的面板数据,着重分析出口贸易和外商直接投资对经济表现的影响。使用Petroni的面板单位根数据检验和Arellano及Bond的动态面板数据估计技术,我们发现出口贸易和外商直接投资对经济增长有着重大的正面效应。研究结果表明,其他发展中国家和转轨经济国家可以借鉴中国政府采用的这两种发展政策:推动出口和引入国际水准的技术与商业管理实践。     

The convergence in domestic value-added of exports in the EU

Difficulties in measuring domestic value-added in exports (DVA) have led to the development of alternative measures of trade in value-added terms. These new measures have enabled more accurate estimates that reveal that the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE10) exhibit an approximately five percentage points lower DVA share of exports compared with other EU countries (EU15). The lag is on average the highest in knowledge-intensive manufacturing sectors (eight percentage points) and the lowest in knowledge-intensive services (0.3 percentage points). However, this article argues that the CEE10 economies have acquired new knowledge by participating in GVCs and thus have gradually started increasing their level of DVA. Based on EU trade data, this article presents evidence of convergence of DVA in manufacturing and especially in the services sector. It is also shown that a negative relationship exists between participation in GVCs and DVA in the CEE10 economies that is declining over time in both manufacturing and services exports.     

Exports, Returns to Scale, and Total Factor Productivity: The Case of Taiwanese Manufacturing Industries

The paper examines the relevance of international scale economies and international market efficiency of trade based on the firm-level data of Taiwanese manufacturing industries. The author first constructs a simple analytical framework to measure the extent of scale economies and total factor productivity for each firm. The measurements of scale economies and total factor productivity are then used to investigate the relationships among exports, scale economies, and productivity. Significant external scale economies associated with exports and a strong positive relationship between the individual firm's productivity and its own export intensity are observed.     

Causes and consequences of exports' channel integration

This paper investigates the decision to export with a proprietary exports channel by Spanish manufacturing firms. The research focuses on the effects of organizational capabilities versus scale economies on the vertical integration decision, and postulates a system of two simultaneous equations to properly evaluate the influence of a proprietary exports channel on the volume of exports. The results show that scale economies are more relevant than organizational capabilities in the decision to vertically integrate, and that, when properly evaluated, the exports mode does not influence the level of exports. The first author acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education (CICYT SEC97-1368) and Comunidad de Madrid (06/0067/98). Previous versions of this paper have been presented at the 24th EARIE Conference in Leuven (Belgium), XIII Jornadas de Economía Industrial in Madrid (Spain). The authors want to thank two anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions, although any remaining mistake is our own responsibility.     

The role of export-driven entrepreneurship in economic development: A comparison of software exports from India, China, and Taiwan

In the puzzle of economic development, there is moderate agreement around one issue: that entrepreneurial, export-led development is likely to produce higher economic growth rates than inward-looking development. This paper begins by taking an overall look at the size and competitiveness of the economies of India, China, and Taiwan, with particular reference to the software and the information technology (IT) sectors. It then focuses on the role of software export entrepreneurship in India and Taiwan as exemplars for other sectors and for formulation of government policy. In Taiwan, successful exporters constitute a model deemed worthy for other companies to emulate. In India, whether the booming software sector will prove to be a sufficient exemplar and catalyst for change throughout the economy and government remains an open question. The paper concludes by taking a look at another related export sector—IT-enabled service exports. Throughout the various sections of the paper, government policy implications remain an important backdrop.     

Export Performance of China: A Constant Market Share Analysis

In the light of the fact that there has been substantial growth in China's exports in last three decades, particularly after China joined the WTO in 2001, this article investigates the major sources of China's export performance during 2002-2014 by using the constant market share (CMS) model. In this study, exports are further decomposed in three categories based on their technological intensity using Lail (2000) classification on 3 digit SITC Revision-3 data provided by UN Comtrade via WITS database. The categories are high technology, medium technology and low technology. It is found that growth of China's exports has, moreover, remained above world exports growth in all three categories during the period of study. The analysis reveals that export performance is mainly attributed to 让s competitive strength in the global market, though decreasing trend has been observed in the competitiveness of all three categories. Increasing cost of labor and appreciating RMB could be the causes behind decreasing competitiveness of Chinese exports. Product structure effect, on an average, has turned out to be negative in all the categories which is the most disturbing aspect of China's export performance. On the other hand, geographical structure effect has positive impact on export performance of high-technology based exports whereas it has negative impact on export performance of low-technology and medium-technology based exports. China being the world's largest exporter, decreasing competitiveness and wrong product structure effect could adversely influence its export performance in particular and its growth in general.