人民币在岸市场与香港离岸市场汇率溢出效应和联动机制研究:“8.11”汇改前后的比较

通过分析人民币在岸市场与香港离岸市场相互影响机制,并运用VAR模型和DCC-MVGARCH模型分别考察了"8.11"汇改前后CNY与CNH人民币汇率均值溢出效应和动态关联性。文章得出以下三点结论:一是汇改前CNY拥有人民币定价权;二是汇改后人民币汇率中间价报价机制发生变化,人民币定价权归属呈现阶段性特征;三是CNY与CNH之间原有的稳定联动机制受到汇率形成机制调整的冲击,两地汇率动态相关系数波动性增强。通过分析汇改后影响人民币定价权变动和两地联动机制的因素,文章建议促进在岸市场建设,巩固在岸市场人民币定价权;加强央行与市场的政策沟通,锚定市场预期,同时重视外部风险冲击,稳定两地汇率动态关联性。     

人民币离岸市场与境内市场之间收益率及波动的溢出效应研究

本文基于2010年8月23日—2013年12月31日香港离岸可交割人民币外汇市场(CNH市场)和境内人民币外汇市场(CNY市场)的统计数据,采用二元VARBEKK-MVGARCH模型,实证研究了人民币离岸市场与境内市场收益率溢出效应和波动溢出效应。结果表明:当选择人民币汇率收盘价计算境内人民币外汇市场收益率时,人民币离岸市场与境内市场之间存在显著的双向收益率溢出效应和双向波动溢出效应;当选择人民币汇率中间价计算境内人民币外汇市场收益率时,仅存在人民币离岸市场对境内市场的单向收益率溢出效应和人民币境内市场对离岸市场的单向波动溢出效应。     

人民币在岸市场与香港离岸市场汇率溢出效应和联动机制研究:“8.11”汇改前后的比较北大核心CSSCISSCI

通过分析人民币在岸市场与香港离岸市场相互影响机制,并运用VAR模型和DCC-MVGARCH模型分别考察了"8.11"汇改前后CNY与CNH人民币汇率均值溢出效应和动态关联性。文章得出以下三点结论:一是汇改前CNY拥有人民币定价权;二是汇改后人民币汇率中间价报价机制发生变化,人民币定价权归属呈现阶段性特征;三是CNY与CNH之间原有的稳定联动机制受到汇率形成机制调整的冲击,两地汇率动态相关系数波动性增强。通过分析汇改后影响人民币定价权变动和两地联动机制的因素,文章建议促进在岸市场建设,巩固在岸市场人民币定价权;加强央行与市场的政策沟通,锚定市场预期,同时重视外部风险冲击,稳定两地汇率动态关联性。     

香港人民币市场上的供求分析

近年来,香港人民币市场发展迅速。这主要是因为市场对人民币汇率具有强烈的升值预期,但在资本管制的背景下,外部资金无法进入在岸人民币市场,所以就涌入了CNH市场。由此也可看出,人民币国际化给资本项目开了口子,但这个口子并不完全。与CNY市场有所受限不同,CNH汇率面临双向波     

从当前的人民币汇率波动看人民币国际化

开放贸易项下人民币结算,使得香港离岸人民币(CNH)外汇市场得以与大陆在岸人民币(CNY)外汇市场并存。由于同时存在两个人民币外汇市场和两个人民币汇率,且资金可以相对自由地流动,套利活动和套汇活动得以大行其道。最近CNY的贬值主要是套汇和套利发生方向性逆转的结果。     

基于GARCH模型的人民币汇率预测

随着人民币市场化的推进,人民币波动幅度增大,汇率弹性增强,加强人民币汇率风险管理已成为摆在各大经济主体面前的重大课题,因此对人民币汇率的预测是十分必要的。本文采用GARCH模型对2010年6月至2013年3月的人民币兑美元日汇率建模,进行短期预测和预测评价。结果表明,GARCH（1,1）模型在一定程度上拟合了人民币兑美元汇率的时间序列,在预测短期汇率上具有一定的适用性。     

人民币境外期货市场投机与境内即期汇率的稳定性

内容提要本文通过建立VAR-GARCH模型研究了2006年8月以来人民币即期和离岸期货市场的关系。研究发现,人民币离岸期货市场的投机程度未对即期汇率的波动产生显著影响;反之,人民币即期汇市的波动却显著影响着离岸期货市场的投机程度。此结果佐证了Rothig(2004)的发现:不同于期权期货市场主导的发达经济体,欠发达经济体的外汇市场通常由即期市场主导。此外,人民币即期汇率波动幅度的上升会显著降低期货市场的投机程度。这与Rothig(2004)对韩元的发现相反,说明市场对人民币即期汇率的稳定有强大的信心。     

2014年上半年人民币前沿报告

渣打人民币环球指数（RGI）创下新高。纽约市场继续上佳表现,伦敦领跑香港以外离岸人民币中心。对130家离岸企业开展的人民币调查显示,未来6个月离岸人民币使用将继续上升。但离岸人民币（CNH）再度对人民币（CNY）折价,短期内资金回流内地或将增多。中国人民银行正悄然进行定向货币政策放松。我们认为当前实际贷款利率不适宜当前宏观经济放缓的形势,预计三季度将会出台全面降准措施,银行间市场状况将保持宽松。     

人民币离岸市场发展对我国货币政策的影响

人民币离岸市场正在获得快速发展。在发展过程中,离岸市场与在岸市场的人民币双向流动规模不断增大,离岸市场的人民币汇率与利率市场化定价体系逐步形成,离岸市场与在岸市场的联系和互动日益增强,离岸市场对我国货币政策制定和实施产生了一定的影响,干扰了我国货币政策目标的实现。现阶段,我国央行应建立资本流动的监管与预警系统,动态地监控和分析人民币在岸与离岸的流速与流量,并在资本流动异常时采取逆向干预,保持国内货币政策的独立性和金融市场稳定。     

人民币汇改重启

央行新闻发言人6月19日表示，进一步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革，增强人民币汇率弹性。新汇改将延续2005年7月至2008年6月期间的人民币汇率形成机制，即以开市场调节为基础、参考一篮子货币的管理浮动汇率制。     

Assessing the price dynamics of onshore and offshore RMB markets: An ITS model approach

This paper investigates how the price dynamics of both onshore and offshore RMB markets are affected by fundamental determinants, market liquidity, global risk aversion and policies by using daily data from August 2010 to February 2016. The interval time series (ITS) modelling is applied to study the RMB price mechanism by capturing prices of the two markets as one self-formed interval data. An interval-based Wald test is constructed to examine the differences between the coefficients and an interval-based Mallows criterion is proposed for choosing appropriate explanatory variables. We find that both the price level and the price differences of onshore and offshore RMB markets are greatly affected by economic fundamentals indicated by different returns on stock indexes and market liquidity indicated by bid-ask prices of offshore market price. In addition, it is suggested that the interest rate spread between China and the US and the global risk appetite do not significantly affect the RMB price for both onshore and offshore markets. Finally, the results imply that “811 reform” of the RMB exchange rate regime does not change the fundamental price dynamics of RMB markets, but significantly changes how economic fundamentals affect the price mechanism of RMB exchange rate.     

Renminbi Derivatives： Recent Development and Issues

This study reviews the developments in the onshore and offshore renminbi derivatives markets. The onshore market has seen a rapid build‐up in the market infrastructure and price discovery mechanism in the past year, with empirical evidence suggesting that its pricing is increasingly determined by financial fundamentals, such as the covered interest rate parity. However, the growth of the market has been restrained by restrictions on the participant base, limited variations in the RMB/US$ exchange rate, market participants’lack of technical capacity and experience, and inadequate supporting financial market infrastructure. The non‐deliverable forward (NDF) market, concentrated in Hong Kong and Singapore, is more developed, but has the drawback that its pricing is not tied to financial fundamentals. The comparison between onshore and offshore markets suggests that two issues are of particular importance for future derivatives market development in China: the balance between regulation and development, and the relationship between onshore and offshore markets.     

Are Offshore RMB Arrangements the Basis for a Long-term Exchange Rate System without Convertibility？

This paper discusses China's relatively new structure of dual onshore and offshore RMB markets. Its distinguishing feature is both offshore trading at exchange rates that are market determined and onshore trading at exchange rates anchored at the official spot rate with capital account inconvertibility. We note that thus far the CNH and CNY spot rates have largely tracked each other, suggesting that the shadow price on the convertibility constraint onshore and also the offshore diversification benefit is close to zero. However, this could change in the future. We discuss the potential for the offshore RMB market to grow with trade settlement and bilateral swap arrangements in RMB, which would provide a big enough pool of liquidity for the RMB to become a vehicle currency and reserve currency. These potential developments will be restrained by onshore inconvertibility, but moving to convertibility seemingly implies major change in China's financial structure and the offshore RMB arrangements are only a small first step along this path. Crucial in this evolution of arrangements will be future Chinese growth performance and the relative attractiveness of onshore inconvertible but offshore marketable RMB relative to the debt laden and slow growth currencies of the USA, the EU and Japan.     

Geographic Spread of Currency Trading: The Renminbi and Other Emerging Market Currencies

This paper studies the ongoing diffusion of renminbi (RMB) trading across the globe, the first of such research of an international currency. It analyses the distribution in offshore RMB trading in 2013 and 2016 using comprehensive data from the Triennial Central Bank Survey of foreign exchange markets. In 2013, Asian centers favored by the policy of RMB internationalization had disproportionate shares in global RMB trading. Over the following three years, RMB trading seemed to converge to the spatial pattern of all currencies, with a half‐life of seven to eight years. The previously most traded emerging market currency, the Mexican peso, shows a similar pattern, although it is converging to the global norm more slowly. Three other emerging market currencies show a qualitatively similar evolution in the geography of their offshore trading. Overall, the RMB's internationalization is tracing an arc from the influence of administrative measures to the working of market forces.     

人民币国际化对货币政策有效性的影响

人民币国际化是否影响货币政策有效性?是人民币国际化程度提高之后货币大规模跨境流动而引起的担忧。文章研究发现,在给定其他因素不变的情况下,人民币国际化程度的提高放大了境外汇率变动对国内经济产出和价格的影响。因此,人民币国际化背景下,中央银行应将境外汇率失衡纳入货币政策的反应函数,反应系数取决于境外利率、产出和价格对境外货币需求的决定系数。理论分析还表明,人民币国际化程度不影响货币政策对国内价格的有效性,而是否影响货币政策对国内经济产出的有效性,则取决于经济结构特征。实证结果表明,目前人民币国际化未对国内利率、产出和价格带来明显冲击,且无论是在M0层次,还是在M2层次,人民币国际化均未明显影响国内货币政策有效性。     

中国黄金市场与外汇市场间收益、波动溢出效应实证分析--基于VEC-DCC(BEKK)-BVEGARCH模型

用向量自回归动态二元EGARCH模型,对中国黄金市场与外汇市场间的收益与波动,在金融危机前后溢出效应进行分析。研究显示：美元兑人民币汇率和中国黄金不存在溢出效应,欧元兑人民币汇率对黄金存在负向溢出效应;较之金融危机以前,美元和欧元兑人民币汇率对黄金收益的波动溢出效应减弱,尤其是美元,危机前,黄金市场对来自美元和欧元外汇市场的信息冲击,存在显著＂杠杆效应＂;危机期间,市场间＂杠杆效应＂减弱。     

随机性、市场干预与外汇市场有效性——对人民币汇率的动态分析

外汇市场的有效性程度是考察汇率形成机制是否灵活与合理的重要途径。本文运用近似熵的分析方法研究了汇率改革前后人民币外汇市场有效性的动态变化。研究发现,汇改使人民币对日元和欧元间外汇市场的有效性下降,而人民币对美元间外汇市场的有效性在增加。同时,央行对外汇市场干预的强度越大,人民币外汇市场的有效性就越低。经验表明,参考一篮子汇率制度的实施是提高人民币外汇市场有效性的一个重要途径。     

Onshore spot and offshore forward markets for RMB: Evidence from the “8.11” exchange rate regime reform

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between the onshore spot market and offshore forward market for Chinese currency around the period of China's “8.11” exchange rate regime reform, one of the most important market-oriented reforms implemented on August 11, 2015. We compare return and volatility spillover effects between the two markets before and after the “8.11” reform. The empirical evidence shows that a remarkable change has occurred in both the return and volatility spillovers. Before the reform, return and volatility spillovers exist from the offshore forward market to the onshore spot market. After the reform, however, we observe an obvious reverse in the direction and an increase in the strength of the return and volatility spillover effects. These findings suggest the existence of cross-market information flows, a change in the direction and a strengthening of the dynamic relationship after the reform. We argue that the “8.11” reform serves as a milestone reflecting long-term underlying forces that increase the relative importance of the onshore market.     

国际资本流动与房地产、上证市场联动性研究

去年底以来,我国出现了国外短期资本出逃的现象,这直接导致了人民币兑美元汇率的连续"跌停"。一方面,作为国外资本的主要投资场所,房地产市场和上证市场的发展状况直接影响了国外短期资本的投资热情;另一方面,国外短期资本的流动也影响着房地产市场和上证市场的发展。鉴于此,本文从外汇储备、房地产市场以及上证市场三个角度,结合相关的实证分析方法,来深刻揭示这三者之间的相互影响关系。分析过程用到的方法包括ADF检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数分析、方差分析等。最后得出三者间存在较为明显的联动效应的结论。     

现期人民币汇率应适度贬值

近期以来,美国以我国保持较长时期的国际收支顺差为由,强烈要求人民币汇率(RMB/^,下同)升值。笔者认为,人民币汇率升值只会使得投机者加剧对人民币汇率的升值预期,形成人民币汇率的不稳定性投机。长期保持人民币汇率稳定,不能刺激用来防范汇率风险的金融工具和相关的金融市场