Decomposition of Technological Change and Factor Bias in Indian Power Sector: An Unbalanced Panel Data Approach

Technological change and factor bias in the Indian power sector are analyzed using a translog cost function. Various components of technological progress and factor bias are identified and estimated, using a 21 year unbalanced panel data of Indian states and union territories. Heterogeneity across states is incorporated in the model using a variance component model. Appropriate corrections are made for unbalanced panel data. Empirical results show that the annual average rate of technological progress has been 2.4% for the country as a whole. Accumulation of knowledge and increasing scale are found to be the major factors contributing to technological progress. In contrast, the effects of factor price changes and fixed capital accumulation on technological progress have been unfavorable. Pure factor bias measure indicate saving in the use of fuel and labor, and increased use of materials. Tests are performed to check the curvature properties of the underlying technology.     

Investment in Africa's Manufacturing Sector: A Four Country Panel Data Analysis

Firm level data for the manufacturing sector in Africa, presented in this paper, shows very low levels of investment. The importance of profit effects on investment is investigated using a flexible accelerator, a specification based on the Euler equation and a simple generalisation of these specificiations. There are controls for firm fixed effects. It is shown that the profit effect is very similar for both the accelerator and Euler equation specifications. A comparison with other studies shows that, for small firms, the effect is much smaller in Africa than for other countries. Reasons for the relative insensitivity of investment to profits in African firms are suggested. For the most general specification tested there are no significant differences in the size of the profit effect across the four countries in the study.     

Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: the Case of Liquor

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of prediction in a panel data regression model with spatial autocorrelation in the context of a simple demand equation for liquor. This is based on a panel of 43 states over the period 1965–1994. The spatial autocorrelation due to neighbouring states and the individual heterogeneity across states is taken explicitly into account. We compare the performance of several predictors of the states’ demand for liquor for 1 year and 5 years ahead. The estimators whose predictions are compared include OLS, fixed effects ignoring spatial correlation, fixed effects with spatial correlation, random-effects GLS estimator ignoring spatial correlation and random-effects estimator accounting for the spatial correlation. Based on RMSE forecast performance, estimators that take into account spatial correlation and heterogeneity across the states perform the best for forecasts 1 year ahead. However, for forecasts 2–5 years ahead, estimators that take into account the heterogeneity across the states yield the best forecasts.     

会计信息与股票价格关系分析

一直以来会计界试图通过会计信息解释股票价格。本文在总结国内外理论与实证研究的基础上,分析了这一研究领域的发展,并通过引入剩余收益模型,探讨会计信息与股票价格之间的关系。     

基于面板数据的我国制造业R&D投入对专利产出的影响实证分析

基于2000年-2005年制造业29个行业的数据,运用面板数据模型实证研究了我国制造业R&D投入对专利产出的影响。结果表明:我国制造业各行业R&D经费投入对专利产出的影响显著,技术密集度较高的行业R&D经费投入弹性系数较高,反映了这些行业存在着较大的技术创新机会;而R&D人员投入弹性系数较低,说明我国制造业行业存在着冗员现象。针对分析结果,我们提出了相应的对策建议。     

黄金期货价格与我国黄金采选业股票价格关系的实证研究——以山东黄金股票价格为例

本文通过对我国黄金期货价格和相关股票价格之间关系的研究,试图把握其内在规律,为相关行业、企业、市场参与者和市场监管部门提供有价值的市场信息,从而可以正确认识我国目前黄金期货市场的价格发现功能,以及股票市场的运行效率。     

我国的货币供应与股指的相关性分析

M1、M2-M1的同比增速以及M2-M1的增速差与股指走势的相关性较高,经常被用于预测股指的变化,因此本文将从理论分析以及实证分析两方面对各个指标与股指的相关性进行。     

股票数据初探——移动平均与烛状图分析

论文讲述了如何利用Python对多只股票进行数据分析,并且分析每只股票间的异同。运用Python,可将股票数据进行可视化处理,例如,运用线性图展现出股票随时间的变化情况;利用烛状图了解每只股票每日闭市与开市相比的盈利或者亏损情况;利用移动平均值直观地观察在规定时间内股票价格变动,了解股票价格是否稳定。论文以制定更好的决策为目的,从数据可视化入手,提供优质有效的数据信息,运用数据挖掘技术对微软、苹果、谷歌等多只股票价格波动趋势进行研究。     

我国股票市场与经济增长弱相关性的实证分析

我国股票市场与经济增长之间究竟存在怎样的关系,在理论界一直存在争议,本文对二者之间的关系进行了理论研究并通过经济计量学中的多元回归模型展开了实证分析,最后得出我国股票市场与经济增长之间存在弱相关性的结论。     

我国证券投资基金重仓持股变动对股票价格波动性影响的实证研究

文章采用了2006年第一季度到2008年第四季度国内证券投资基金公布的季度数据,运用动态面板数据模型对我国证券投资基金重仓持股变动与股票价格波动性之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,在牛市中证券投资基金重仓持股比例的变化与股价波动性成正向关系,加剧了股价的波动;在熊市中证券投资基金持股比例变化与股票价格波动性成反向关系,起到了稳定证券市场的作用。     

Centres and Peripheries in Finland: Granger Causality Tests Using Panel Data

Abstract

Despite their importance from a policy point of view, empirical studies on the effects of growth centres in their regions are rare. This paper analyses mutual relationships between growth processes in centres and their surrounding hinterlands in 19 Finnish regions. Annual population data from the period 1970–2004 are used. A novel testing procedure based on an extension of the Granger causality definition in a panel data context is applied. Heterogeneity between regions is allowed. Both the homogeneous non-causality hypothesis and the homogeneous causality hypothesis are rejected. Causal processes prove to be heterogeneous. Causality from centres to peripheries is found for nine regions and causality from peripheries to centres for twelve regions. Rapidly growing and large centres, in particular, have negative effects on their hinterlands.

Centres et banlieues en Finlande: tests de causalité de Granger faisant usage de données de panel

RÉSUMÉ?En dépit de leur importance sur le plan de la politique, les études empiriques sur les effets des centres d'expansion dans leurs régions sont rares. La présente communication analyse, dans dix-neuf régions de la Finlande, les rapports réciproques entre procédés d'expansion dans les centres et leur arrière-pays environnant. Pour ceci, on utilise des données sur la population annuelle remontant à la période 1970–2004. On applique une nouvelle technique de test basée sur une extension de la définition de Granger dans le contexte de données de panel. L'hétérogénéité entre les régions est admise. Tant l'hypothèse de la non causalité homogène que celle de la causalité homogène sont rejetées. Les techniques causales s'avèrent être hétérogènes. On relève une causalité des centres aux banlieues dans neuf régions, et des banlieues aux centres ville dans douze régions. Notamment, les centres ville de grande taille et en pleine expansion ont un effet négatif sur leur arrière-pays.

Centros y periferias en Finlandia: Ensayos de causalidad de Granger utilizando datos de panel

RÉSUMÉN?A pesar de su importancia desde un punto de vista de políticas, los estudios empíricos sobre los efectos de los centros de crecimiento en sus regiones son escasos. Este trabajo analiza las relaciones mutuas entre los procesos de crecimiento en los centros y sus interiores vecinos, en diecinueve regiones finlandesas. Se utilizan datos anuales de población entre el período de 1970–2004. Se aplica un nuevo procedimiento de ensayo basado en una extensión de la definición de causalidad de Granger dentro de un contexto de datos de panel. Se tiene en cuenta la heterogeneidad entre regiones. Se rechazan tanto la hipótesis de no causalidad homogénea como la hipótesis de causalidad homogénea. Los procesos causales demuestran ser heterogéneos. Causalidad de centros a periferias se encuentra en nueve regiones, y causalidad de periferias a centros en doce regiones. Los centros grandes y de rápido crecimiento, en particular, tienen efectos negativos sobre sus interiores.

     

我国零售企业库存成因分析及控制策略研究

随着我国零售行业的迅速发展以及大量外国零售巨头的涌入,零售业的竞争日趋白热化。我国大部分零售企业尚处于整合、发展期,经营和管理水平落后于国外同行。尤其是作为零售企业核心技术之一的库存控制存有诸多缺陷。如何合理库存,加快资金周转．提升企业竞争力是我国零售企业必须解决的课题．     

A Comparative Analysis of Different IV and GMM Estimators of Dynamic Panel Data Models

It is well known that the usual procedures for estimating panel data models are inconsistent in the dynamic setting. A large number of consistent estimators however, have been proposed in the literature. This paper provides a survey of the majority of mainstream estimators, which tend to consist of IV and GMM ones. It also considers a newly proposed extension to the promising Wansbeek–Bekker estimator (Harris & Mátyás, 2000). To provide guidance to the applied researcher working on micro-datasets, the small sample performance of these estimators is evaluated using a set of Monte Carlo experiments.     

当前猪肉价格上涨原因及对策分析

六月份以来,全国猪肉价格快速上涨,很多地方猪肉价格突破历史高位,引起社会各界的广泛关注,如何理性看待这一轮猪肉价格上涨,以及如何建立、健全市场体系、体制,防止猪肉价格再次出现大起大落,是文中研究的主题。     

Issues in the Design and Analysis of Panel Studies: A Cursory Review

This paper offers a broad review of some aspects in the design and analysis of panel studies, chiefly of household panel surveys. Both the analytic benefits and the potential problems of panel surveys are briefly outlined, and selected methodological and operational issues, which crucially affect data quality are highlighted. These questions are then considered under four headings: (i) dynamic population and its implications for initial sampling and following rules; (ii) panel length and number of waves; (iii) tracking and tracing techniques, and other strategies for maintaining high participation rates; (iv) questionnaire design and strategies for collecting retrospective information. While no technical details are offered, there is some discussion of the possible drawbacks and advantages of the different approaches described.     

基于人才培养状态数据平台智能化动态仪表盘的开发与应用研究

摘要：状态数据采集平台全面展现了各高等职业院校人才培养水平和办学特色。如何有效地对平台中的大批量数据进行深入分析、研究和应用,高等职业教育领域的许多专家进行了较多的探索。传统数据分析方法耗时多、效率低,严重制约了平台功能的有效发挥。为了解决这一问题,有必要开发一种智能化动态分析软件,快捷、准确、形象、多维地对状态数据进行全面分析。本文通过分析不同对象的应用要求,开发了以高职状态数据采集平台为数据源的动态仪表盘软件,既有利于各级教育主管部门的科学决策,又有利于学生、教师、家长、用人单位和社会对高职教育的全面认识。     

Efficiency Measurement With Unbalanced Panel Data: Evidence from Tunisian Textile,Clothing and Leather Industries

This paper is concerned with the estimation of stochastic frontier production functions with unbalanced panel data when unobservable firm efficiency levels are related to explanatory variables. We use the weighted-means Instrumental Variables method acknowledged to R. Gardner (1998) which is a modification of the Hausman-Taylor (1981) procedure adapted for unbalanced panel data. The estimation method is used to examine technical efficiency in Tunisian textile, clothing and leather (TCL) industries during the period 1983–1994. Further, we assume a Translog production frontier where input uses are expressed in efficiency units and adjusted for the age of capital and types of labor. Firm-specific time-invariant technical efficiency is obtained using Schmidt and Sickles (1984) approach. The results suggest that the Instrumental Variables method produces more accurate estimates of the unknown firm level technical efficency. Mean efficency scores resulting from the MHT method is of 66.5%.     

A Generalized Method of Moments Estimator for a Spatial Panel Model with an Endogenous Spatial Lag and Spatial Moving Average Errors

Abstract

This paper proposes a new generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator for spatial panel models with spatial moving average errors combined with a spatially autoregressive dependent variable. Monte Carlo results are given suggesting that the GMM estimator is consistent. The estimator is applied to English real estate price data.     

货币政策和居民收入对房价影响的实证分析

近年来,房地产价格持续快速增长,影响房价的因素有很多,文章以辽宁省为例,建立贷款利率、货币供应量、城镇居民可支配收入和房屋销售价格的VAR模型,进行实证研究。利用EVIEWS7.0软件对模型进行脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析,得出贷款利率、货币供应量和居民可支配收入均对房价产生正向影响,并且居民可支配收入的贡献度最强,五年以上贷款利率贡献度最弱。     

西部自然资源对东西部经济增长的贡献——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

运用加入自然资源的CD生产函数和省际面板数据估计了西部各省自然资源的开发利用对本地区经济增长的贡献率,并以此为基础分析了西部自然资源对东部经济增长的贡献。得出结论,西部省份自然资源的开发利用对本地区经济增长的贡献率普遍偏低,而西部自然资源对东部经济增长的贡献接近或者超过8%。政策建议是需要建立东部对西部自然资源利用的补偿机制。