Myopic governments and welfare-enhancing debt limits

This paper studies welfare effects of a soft borrowing constraint on sovereign debt. The constraint is modeled as a proportional fine per unit of debt in excess of a specified reference value, resembling features of the Stability and Growth Pact. Sovereign debt is the result of myopic fiscal policy. It reduces welfare in the absence of lump-sum taxes. The paper shows that the borrowing constraint enhances welfare by reducing long run debt. In an economy calibrated to a generic OECD country, the maximum attainable welfare gain of debt consolidation, which is induced by imposing the optimally parameterized constraint, amounts to 0.5% in terms of consumption. The short run welfare costs of the constraint, which arise from restricting the use of debt to smooth taxes, are quantitatively negligible.     

Optimal fiscal policy under learning

This paper characterizes optimal fiscal policy when agents learn about future taxation. A benevolent and fully rational government chooses taxes on labor income and state-contingent bonds to finance public spending, considering that private agents form their expectations through a learning algorithm. Facing a trade-off between distortionary taxes and distorted expectations, the Ramsey planner chooses the policy that minimizes the total cost of distortions. The analysis produces two main results. First, the government will use fiscal variables to manipulate expectations, reducing taxes and issuing debt at times of pessimism and doing the opposite at times of optimism. This speeds up learning. Second, the expectation-dependent fiscal plan is also history-dependent, and it prescribes taxes that are not as smooth and more persistent than under rational expectations. These findings are robust to alternative learning algorithms.     

Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States

General equilibrium models that include policy rules for government spending, lump-sum transfers, and distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption expenditures are fit to US data under rich specifications of fiscal policy rules to obtain several results. First, the best-fitting model allows many fiscal instruments to respond to debt. Second, responses of aggregates to fiscal policy shocks under rich rules vary considerably from responses where only non-distortionary fiscal instruments finance debt. Third, in the short run, all fiscal instruments except labor taxes react strongly to debt, but long-run intertemporal financing comes from all components of the government’s budget constraint. Fourth, debt-financed fiscal shocks trigger long-lasting dynamics; short-run and long-run multipliers can differ markedly.     

Public infrastructure investment,output dynamics,and balanced budget fiscal rules

We study the dynamic macroeconomic effects of public infrastructure investment under a balanced budget fiscal rule, using an overlapping generations model of a small open economy. The government finances public investment by employing distortionary labor taxes. The balanced budget rule implies a negative short-run output multiplier that exceeds (in absolute terms) the positive long-run output multiplier. Larger public capital spillovers sharpen the intertemporal output tradeoff. In contrast to conventional results regarding public investment shocks, we obtain dampened cyclical responses for plausible parameter values. The cyclical dynamics arise from the interaction between the labor tax rate, the tax base, and the intergenerational spillover effects. We show that financing scenarios involving public debt creation can substantially reduce the short-run output contraction and the transitional macroeconomic fluctuations induced by public investment.     

Determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper explores economic, political and institutional determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in 11 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries from 2000 to 2013 and compares discretionary fiscal reactions before and during the global economic crisis. We find that fiscal policy was procyclical to the output gap both before and during the crisis, while no fiscal reaction to the absorption gap was captured. Our results also indicate a negative relationship between the level of public debt and deficits over the entire period and the pre-crisis period, suggesting that rising public debt represented a brake on future deficits. We also find that election cycles affect the fiscal deficit, but only during the pre-crisis period, while no evidence of a relationship between fiscal policy and government fragmentation was captured. We find some evidence that in the pre-crisis period the CEE countries with a fixed exchange rate regime ran lower deficits than those with a floating regime, whereas during the crisis no impact of the exchange rate regime on the fiscal deficit was found. There is also some evidence that an arrangement with the IMF was associated with lower deficits for the entire sample period. However, no impact of EU accession on the fiscal stance was identified.     

Gender policy and female employment: a CGE model for Italy

The gender integration in all areas of policy choices and at all stages of the decision-making process is strongly recommended by the European Union and represents an achievement that the Member States should accomplish when implementing policy measures. In a country like Italy, where the level of female labour participation is among the lowest in Europe, policy maker decisions should encourage and stimulate the demand for female labour without neglecting the global employment rate and income growth. The multisectoral analysis offers the possibility to bridge gender disaggregation within income formation and distribution from the production phase to the demand formation. In this perspective, this paper develops a gender-aware CGE model based on the gender-aware SAM for the Italian economy to evaluate the impact of different fiscal policies aimed to reduce female labour cost and trigger woman hiring in those sectors with high gender disparity.     

An Analysis of the Convergence of the Composition of Public Expenditures in European Union Countries

The literature on fiscal policies is paying increasing attention to the impact of the composition of public expenditures on long‐term economic growth. Public policy endogenous growth models recommend to change the composition of public expenditures to items considered productive expenditures. In this sense, European institutions are encouraging the rise in the share of productive outlays like public investments, R&D, and active labor market policies, among others. The article analyzes whether these recommendations are followed by European Union countries and whether a convergence to a new pattern of public finances with a higher share of those items considered productive expenditures by European institutions is arising.     

The implications of a graying Japan for government policy

Japan is in the midst of a demographic transition that is both rapid and large by international standards. As recently as 1990 Japan had the youngest population among the Group of 6 large, developed countries. However, the combined effects of aging of the baby-boomer generation and low fertility rates have produced very rapid aging. Japan now finds itself with the oldest population among the Group of 6 and its population will continue to age at a rapid pace in future years. Aging is already placing a burden on government finances and Japan׳s ability to confront the negative fiscal implications of future aging is constrained by its very high debt–GDP ratio. We find that Japan faces a severe fiscal crisis if remedial action is not undertaken soon and analyze alternative strategies for correcting Japan׳s fiscal imbalances.     

Financial stability indicators and public debt developments

This paper investigates the inter-linkages between financial stability and fiscal policy. It analyzes the effect of selected financial stability indicators on the probability of future debt deterioration, controlling for several macroeconomic variables. We find significant evidence that a fragile banking system can put at risk public finances. Weak bank profitability, low asset quality and a weak capital base increase the fragility of the banking system, thus, raising the probability of future fiscal troubles.     

Tax Policy for Economic Progress

A bstract . Developing countries , in constructing modern tax systems , would do well to adopt policies based on proven economic principles so that fiscal instruments do not perpetuate stagnant economies and underemployment of labor and resources. To achieve growth and jobs and ever higher levels of living , they should avoid the mistakes of the United States and many other industrially developed countries in burdening business —enterprises production —with heavy and obstrusive taxes. They, and developed countries as well which are committed to progressive change based on tax reform, like the United States, should use land values where possible to finance local governments so as to avoid taxing the other factors of production. And where necessary taxes should be levied on consumption , for taxes on business income misallocate resources and hamper market discipline in promoting output and efficiency.     

企业所得税对债务融资影响分析——基于我国上市公司的实证研究

本文主要研究了企业所得税对企业债务融资决策产生的影响。研究结论支持了修正的MM理论关于税收对企业的债务融资决策有影响的观点。研究表明:在我国上市公司的债务融资决策中,企业所得税是考虑的因素之一,主要表现在其他条件相同的情况下,实际税率较高的企业债务融资的利用程度较高,享受税盾利益的动机相对较强。同时在我国上市公司中,债务性税盾与非债务性税盾的替代作用并不明显。     

The Henry George Theorem in a second-best world

The Henry George Theorem (HGT) states that, in first-best economies, the fiscal surplus of a city government that finances the Pigouvian subsidies for agglomeration externalities and the costs of local public goods by a 100% tax on land is zero at optimal city sizes. We extend the HGT to distorted economies where product differentiation and increasing returns are the sources of agglomeration economies and city governments levy property taxes. Without relying on specific functional forms, we derive a second-best HGT that relates the fiscal surplus to the excess burden expressed as an extended Harberger formula.     

The Revenue Adequacy of Site Value Taxation in a Ricardian System of Economic Growth

A bstract . The federal administration has sought to reduce the growth of federal expenditures by shifting some government costs to state and local governments. An increased expenditure burden for the latter governments would require increased tax rates for existing types of taxes that have adverse impacts on economic incentives. Land taxes are considered as a source of revenue because of their efficiency aspects. Unfortunately this idea is all too often dismissed because of alleged revenue inadequacy. Thus an analysis is called for of the revenue adequacy of site value taxation in a Ricardian model of economic growth. The model allows analysis of revenue adequacy over time in an economic growth context that is suited for the long range tax-expenditure planning horizon with which local governments are faced. When revenue needs are primarily dependent upon the population size, and the fisc is initially operating at a deficit, for a land tax to permit attainment of balance, per capita rents must be increasing over time. Also when the economy's public service demand is primarily dependent upon income, deficits will not occur if rental share exceeds the share of income devoted to public output. Not all income goes to fiscal output, so rent eventually exceeds expenditures.     

Internalizing intergenerational externalities by regionalization

The emission of long-lived pollutants and public debt policies are related by the joint problem of intergenerational externalities. This paper examines both phenomena from the local perspective, in a model with interregional household mobility. We conclude that local environmental agencies have incentives to internalize all intergenerational pollution externalities, provided all rents of immobile production factors, including waste emissions, are appropriated by the regions. Contrary to widespread belief, however, neutrality of local public debt is not guaranteed in general. Shifts in the intertemporal pattern of local taxes change the net wealth of local property owners if distortionary residence-based taxes are imposed to service the local debt.     

DEFINING THE GOVERNMENT'S DEBT AND DEFICIT

Although the budget deficit and the public debt feature prominently in political debate and economic research, there is no agreement about how they should be measured. They can be defined for different sets of public institutions, including the nested sets corresponding to central government, general government, and the public sector, and, for any definition of government, there are many measures of the debt and deficit, including those generated by four kinds of accounts (cash, financial, full accrual, and comprehensive), which can be derived from four nested sets of assets and liabilities. Each debt and deficit measure says something about public finances, but none tells the whole story. Each is also vulnerable to manipulation, and is likely to be manipulated if it is subject to a binding fiscal rule or target. Narrow definitions of government encourage the shifting of spending to entities outside the defined perimeter of government. Narrow definitions of debt and deficit encourage operations involving off‐balance‐sheets assets and liabilities, while broad measures are susceptible to the mismeasurement of on‐balance‐sheet assets and liabilities. Reviewing the literature on these issues, the paper concludes that governments should publish several measures of the debt and deficit in a form that clearly reveals their interrelationships.     

Sovereign default risk,debt uncertainty and fiscal credibility: The case of Brazil

Since Credit Default Swaps spreads reflect the sovereign risk and, thus, the uncertainties related to government solvency, the goal of this study is to examine the relation between sovereign risk and debt uncertainty (measured by the disagreement in expectations about public debt) in an important developing country – Brazil. Furthermore, the paper analyzes whether fiscal credibility plays a key role in mitigating the effect of debt uncertainty on sovereign risk. The results suggest the disagreement in expectations about public debt affects the sovereign risk, and fiscal credibility plays a twofold role, it reduces sovereign risk, and it mitigates the effect of debt uncertainty on sovereign risk. Besides, quantile regression estimates reveal that fiscal credibility improvements are even more important when sovereign risk levels are higher.     

The impact of adjustment and stabilization policies on infrastructure spending in Central America

During the 1980s and 1990s the countries of Central America experienced protracted fiscal crises and debt repayment problems which resulted in the implementation of structural adjustment agreements. Apart from attempting to reestablish fiscal balance and to control inflation, the proponents of adjustment policies sought to enhance growth by de-emphasizing the wasteful aspects of state spending while maintaining public expenditures on physical and human capital, which were believed to promote private sector productivity. By comparing a pre-debt crisis period with the period given by debt crisis and adjustment, the study reveals that the shares of government spending on human and, particularly, physical infrastructure dropped precipitously during the adjustment period. At the same time, the shares devoted to defense and subsidy categories—as well as interest payments on external debt—generally registered notable gains. The experience of adjustment policies in Central America indicated that substantial discrepancies existed between the idea and the reality.     

ON THE INEFFECTIVENESS OF FISCAL POLICY AS AN INSTRUMENT OF MACROECONOMIC POLICY

Spending depends on the quantity of money. If an increase in the budget deficit is financed by sales of government debt to non-banks, the quantity of money is unchanged and public borrowing 'crowds out' private spending. But – if the government finances its deficit (or buybacks of existing debt) from the banks – the quantity of money, and hence spending and national income increase.     

UK Forecast in detail

The solid pace of expansion in the economy has still yet to be matched by a commensurate improvement in the public finances. And with deficit reduction proving grindingly slow, a question mark continues to exist over the feasibility of current fiscal ambitions…     

公共租赁住房租金定价方法比较研究及其借鉴

从英国开始推行公共租赁住房以来,公共租赁住房已经有几百年的历史。公共租赁住房的租金定价关系到政府的财政负担、社会投资者的收益和保障对象的可支付性,因此成为学术探讨和实践中的热点问题。本文总结了国内外公共租赁住房定价的影响因素,总结了定价方法,分为市场法、成本法和收入法,分析了各自的优劣势。并且结合北京公租房项目实践设想了一种综合上述三种方法的定价方法,具体为：在提供政策性土地和金融支持以及税费减免基础上,先测算住房建设规划期内区域单个项目的成本租金,然后根据市场租金设定每个项目的参照成本租金,并且进行多项目参照成本租金平衡。公租房租金和租房补贴分离,租房补贴与保障对象的收入匹配,使保障对象实际支付可负担租金,从而提高定价的效率和公平。