International business cycles and risk sharing with uncertainty shocks and recursive preferences

This paper analyzes the effects of output volatility shocks on the dynamics of consumption, trade flows and the real exchange rate, in a two-country, two-good world with consumption home bias, recursive preferences, and complete financial markets. When the risk aversion coefficient exceeds the inverse of the intertemporal substitution elasticity, then an exogenous rise in a country׳s output volatility triggers a wealth transfer to that country, to compensate for the greater riskiness of the country׳s output stream. This risk sharing transfer raises the country׳s consumption, lowers its trade balance and appreciates its real exchange rate. In the recursive preferences framework here, volatility shocks account for a non-negligible share of the fluctuations of net exports, net foreign assets and the real exchange rate. These shocks help to explain the high empirical volatility of the real exchange rate and the disconnect between relative consumption and the real exchange rate.     

Search for yield and business cycles

In the ultra-low interest rate environment after the financial crisis, it has been often pointed out that the “search for yield” behavior of financial institutions might have been intensifying interest rate decreases. One hypothesis to explain search for yield is that banks try to buy longer-term bonds even when they recognize negative term premiums in long-term rates because they myopically care about current portfolio income, not just expected holding-period returns. I study the potential impacts of this behavior on U.S. business cycles and long-term bond’s ex-post term premiums. I find that in an economy in which banks are exposed to the value-at-risk constraint, the existence of these myopic banks provides realistic moments of ex-post term premiums. In addition, their existence could generate higher output persistence under a productivity shock compared to an economy without them. This is because the difference between a myopic long-term bond pricing and a realized deposit rate path affects banks’ net worth. I study policy implications, too. In response to changes in the strength of banks’ capital regulation, the existence of myopic banks amplifies business cycles. Regarding monetary policy, it is necessary to consider ex-post term premiums, because ex-post term premiums tend to move in the same direction as the short-term interest rate and amplify business cycles in that direction when myopic banks exist.     

A note on interactions-driven business cycles

Within the standard Keynesian multiplier framework, extended by a micro-model of interactive formation of individual consumption propensities, we demonstrate that socioeconomic interactions can lead to cyclical fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. The underlying micro-model of direct interactions is a version of Alan Kirman’s generic opinion formation model, with an additional feedback effect from macroscopic variables on the transition probabilities. Our model engenders cyclical fluctuations of economic variables, despite the fact that neither the Keynesian multiplier model nor Kirman’s model does so on its own.     

Riskiness,endogenous productivity dispersion and business cycles

In the data, cross-sectional productivity dispersion is countercyclical at both the plant level and the firm level, see e.g. Bloom (2009). I incorporate a firm׳s choice of risk level into a model of firm dynamics with real business cycle features to explain this empirical finding both qualitatively and quantitatively. In the model, in every period, each firm chooses the investment amount and the risk level associated with a production project every period. All projects available to each firm have the same expected flow return, determined by the aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to the firm׳s productivity, and differ from one another only in their risk. The endogenous option of exiting the market and the limited funding for new investment jointly play an important role in motivating firms׳ risk-taking behavior. The model predicts that, in each period, relatively small firms are more likely to take risk and hence exhibit a higher exit rate, and that the cross-sectional productivity dispersion, measured as the standard deviation of the realized individual component of productivity, is larger in recessions.     

Forecasting and uncertainty in the economic and business world

Forecasts are crucial for practically all economic and business decisions. However, there is a mounting body of empirical evidence showing that accurate forecasting in the economic and business world is usually not possible. In addition, there is huge uncertainty, as practically all economic and business activities are subject to events we are unable to predict. The fact that forecasts can be inaccurate creates a serious dilemma for decision and policy makers. On the one hand, accepting the limits of forecasting accuracy implies being unable to assess the correctness of decisions and the surrounding uncertainty. On the other hand, believing that accurate forecasts are possible means succumbing to the illusion of control and experiencing surprises, often with negative consequences. We believe that the time has come for a new attitude towards dealing with the future. In this article, we discuss the limited predictability in the economic and business environment. We also provide a framework that allows decision and policy makers to face the future — despite the inherent limitations of forecasting and the uncertainty, sometimes huge, surrounding most future-oriented decisions.     

Endogenous business cycles caused by nonconvex costs and interactions

This paper shows that endogenous business cycles (inventory cycles) arise from a combination of nonconvex costs and economic interactions among firms. At the micro level, firm behavior is characterized by lumpiness, and the standard production-smoothing theory is empirically rejected. To account for this, a nonconvex cost function is assumed in our model. It might be expected that even if the microeconomic behavior is lumpy, the effect disappears at the aggregate level because of the law of large numbers. However, we show that if there exist interactions among firms, a regular endogenous cycle emerges at the aggregate level given that the degree of the interaction effect exceeds a critical point. That is, the randomly behaving microeconomic agents generate deterministic collective behavior via interactions. This offers an explanation for the Kitchin cycle.     

Uncertainty shocks,central bank characteristics and business cycles

This paper investigates the conjecture that central bank independence and transparency moderate the negative effect of uncertainty shocks on real output. To test this conjecture, the real GDP growth rate is regressed on the interaction terms between measures of central bank characteristics and the proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty, i.e. stock market volatility. To address potential endogeneity concerns, stock market volatility is instrumented in a Two Stage Least Squares model by plausibly exogenous natural disaster, terrorist attack, political coup and revolution shocks. The estimation results provide strong evidence that central bank independence reduces the adverse effect of uncertainty shocks. There is also evidence for the moderating impact of transparency. However, due to the limited availability of transparency data, the result is less conclusive.     

Risk aversion and business cycles: An empirical analysis

Unlike investors, who tend to maintain highly-diversified portfolios, private entrepreneurs usually lack access to complete risk-pooling for idiosyncratic risks, thus more directly internalize the cost of volatility. Risk aversion, however, modifies the optimal contract between entrepreneurs and lenders by incorporating the risk premium that entrepreneurs demand for the uninsurable risk: the private equity premium. Consequently, real shocks tend to be amplified as changes in entrepreneurs’ net worth affect the private equity premium and so the rental rate of capital, investment and output. This theoretical framework suggests that economies where the private entrepreneurial sector is a relatively larger, and therefore more vulnerable to uninsurable risk, all else equal, should present higher volatility. I test this prediction by (1) conducting a simple reduced-form analysis that shows that output volatility is negatively associated with the relative importance of the corporate vs. the privately-held sector; and (2) estimating the model's structural parameters. Intuitively, countries where private entrepreneurs are predominant and so risk aversion is likely to impose stronger impacts, positive risk aversion coefficients should be found. Results suggest that risk aversion is empirically more relevant for economies like Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Korea, Mexico and Thailand than for Canada, France, Germany, the U.K. and the U.S.     

Linking forward and reverse supply chain investments: The role of business uncertainty

This paper explores managerial efforts in reverse supply chains (RSC), where the focus is on the capture and exploitation of used products and materials. The RSC can potentially reduce negative environmental impacts of extracting virgin raw materials and waste disposal. If so, investment in the reverse supply chain should not be made in isolation, but instead must be integrated with investments selected to improve the forward supply chain. After defining and operationalizing these constructs, a survey of plant managers was used to empirically assess the linkages between supply chain investments, organizational risk propensity (i.e., willingness to take risk) and business uncertainty. Reverse supply chain investment had two primary dimensions: reconditioning (i.e., high-value recovery) and recycling and waste management (i.e., low- or no-value recovery). Ongoing investment in the forward supply chain was significantly related to investment in recycling and waste management, but not to investment in reconditioning. Moreover, risk propensity was found to mediate the relationship between the external business uncertainty and investment in the forward and reverse supply chain.     

Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area

This paper compares the cyclical properties of fiscal policies across the 12 original eurozone countries and the future members from Central and Eastern Europe. For the sample period 1995–2005, the fiscal balance exhibits less inertia and is more counter-cyclical in Central and Eastern European countries than in members of the eurozone. The main differences arise from the revenue side. Differences in the formation of fiscal policy between current and future eurozone countries decrease over time. Both autonomous and counter-cyclical fiscal policies have little or no effect on cyclical variability in the eurozone countries, while such policies appear to be effective in Central and Eastern European countries.     

Economic sentiment and business cycles: A spillover methodology approach

This paper is one of the latest attempts to observe and explain the relationship between the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and GDP growth. This new approach uses the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2009) spillover methodology by combining the feedback relationship and the time-varying (dynamic) aspect of that same relationship. The empirical analysis is based on quarterly data over different periods in the European Union (EU) (as a whole) and in ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The main results indicate that the spillovers of shocks between ESI and GDP growth are time-varying for all observed countries, with increasing values of total spillovers in the last recession and afterwards. The direction and strength of spillover effects between economic sentiment and GDP growth are different for the analysed CEE countries. The results are robust with respect to changing the rolling window length, additional Granger causality testing and rolling correlation coefficients.     

The yearend effect in stock returns over business cycles: A technical note

This paper provides evidence in support of the claim that the well-knownJanuary effect is influenced by the stage of the business cycle. Using monthly data for the S&P Composite Index for the period from November 1948 through December 1988 and the standard methodology for seasonal anomalies, the authors show that theJanuary effect is present during the entire period examined as well as in the expansionary phases of that period. However, its existence was not detected during the contractionary phases of that period.     

An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles

Factor models have become useful tools for studying international business cycles. Block factor models can be especially useful as the zero restrictions on the loadings of some factors may provide some economic interpretation of the factors. These models, however, require the econometrician to predefine the blocks, leading to potential misspecification. In Monte Carlo experiments, we show that even a small misspecification can lead to substantial declines in fit. We propose an alternative model in which the blocks are chosen endogenously. The model is estimated in a Bayesian framework using a hierarchical prior, which allows us to incorporate series‐level covariates that may influence and explain how the series are grouped. Using international business cycle data, we find our country clusters differ in important ways from those identified by geography alone. In particular, we find that similarities in institutions (e.g., legal systems, language diversity) may be just as important as physical proximity for analyzing business cycle comovements.     

An analysis of political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles in Pakistan

Quality & Quantity - This paper documents the cycles in corporate investments around national elections in Pakistan from 2000 to 2016. It employed the investment-Q model as the baseline...     

World,country, and sector factors in international business cycles

Do sector-specific factors common to all countries play an important role in explaining business cycle co-movement? We address this question by analyzing international co-movements of value added (VA) growth in a multi-sector dynamic factor model. The model contains a world factor, country-specific factors, sector-specific factors, and idiosyncratic components. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods for 30 disaggregated sectors in the G7 economies for the 1974–2004 period. Our findings show that, although there is a substantial role for sector-specific factors, fluctuations are dominated by country-factors. The world factor appears to play a minimal role because, when using aggregate data, the world factor captures both the factor common to all countries and industries and the factor common to the same industry across countries. We then examine how these factors evolved as globalization deepened over the past two decades. Our results suggest that business cycles at a disaggregate level have not become more synchronized internationally. This is mainly driven by a substantial fall in the volatility of world shocks during the globalization period, rather than a lower sensitivity of sectoral growth to world factors. Our results also reveal that world factors appear to be more important for industries with a higher level of international vertical integration.     

News shock,firm dynamics and business cycles: Evidence and theory

The literature of expectation-driven business cycles has overlooked the role played by endogenous entry. This paper documents empirically news shock as a major source of fluctuations in firm dynamics and comovement between firm entry and GDP using structural vector auto-regressions. We then develop a tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the propagation mechanism assuming fixed operating costs for incumbents and decreasing survival rates for entrants. Our quantitative prediction closely matches the positive comovement between firm entries and core macroeconomic indicators upon news shock. These results remain robust at the sectoral level when the baseline model is extended to a two-sector setup.     

The impact of the US on Latin American business cycles: A new approach

Business cycles in Latin America have tended to be more volatile than those in wealthier nations such as the US. Accordingly, much research has been conducted on Latin business cycles, as well as the impact of the US on such fluctuations. Some research seeks to find how “integrated” cycles are in the US and Latin America, yielding conflicting results. We apply a new method to the question of business cycle synchronization between the US and nine Latin nations. We find that in the majority of cases integration has been rising in recent years. We also find, contrary to some previous studies, that integration does not appear to be affected by either the level of trade or of capital account openness. Finally, we find that the two countries that are dollarized – Ecuador and El Salvador – appear least integrated with the US. This last finding has potentially troubling implications in terms of the ability of these nations to adjust to asymmetric shocks vis-à-vis the US.     

Lending constraints,real estate prices and business cycles in emerging economies

We investigate a small open economy with constraints in both the domestic and the international credit market. The informational opaqueness of the domestic market hinders foreign lenders' activity, so that entrepreneurs face looser borrowing constraints vis-à-vis domestic financiers. However, limited capitalization constrains domestic lenders. Calibrating the model to data from Argentina, we find that the interaction between lending and borrowing constraints is a channel through which real interest rate shocks generate fluctuations in output, real estate prices and consumption. External financial liberalization increases volatility and affects welfare more than domestic liberalization but also mitigates the destabilizing impact of domestic deregulation.