Growing apart in early modern Europe? A comparison of inequality trends in Italy and the Low Countries, 1500–1800

This article provides a comparison of long-term changes in inequality in two key areas of preindustrial Europe: Central-Northern Italy and the Low Countries. Based on new archival material, we reconstruct regional estimates of economic inequality during 1500–1800 and use them to assess the role of economic growth, social-demographic variables, proletarianization, and institutions. We argue that different explanations should be invoked to understand the early modern growth of inequality throughout Europe since several factors conspired to make for a society in which it was much easier for inequality to rise than to fall. Although long-term trends in economic inequality were apparently similar across the continent, divergence occurred in terms of inequality extraction ratios.     

Early globalizations: The integration of Asia in the world economy, 1800–1938

This paper contributes to the debate on globalization and the great divergence with a comprehensive analysis of the integration of Asia in the world market from 1800 to the eve of World War II. We examine the patterns of convergence in prices for a wide range of commodities between Europe and the main Asian countries (India, Indonesia, Japan and China) and we compare them with convergence between Europe and the East Coast of the United States, hitherto the yardstick for the 19th century. Most price convergence occurred before 1870, mainly as a consequence of the abolition of the European trading monopolies with Asia, and, to a lesser extent, the repeal of duties on Atlantic trade. After 1870, price differentials continued to decline thanks to falling freights and to better communication after the lay-out of telegraph cables. There was only little disintegration in the inter-war years.     

How China＇s Holdings of Foreign Reserves Affect the Value of the US Dollar in Europe and Asia

By January 2009, China held almost US$2tn in foreign reserves. The present paper estimates the marginal effect of China changing its holdings offoreign reserves on the value of the US dollar in Europe and dsia. Because using traditional techniques to find this estimate would be inappropriate due to severe problems resulting from omitted variables, the present paper uses a new approach, bidirectional-reiterative trucated projected least squares, that has been proven to minimize problems associated with omitted variables. It is found that if China would sell 1 percent of its foreign reserves, then the value of the US dollar would fall by 0.44 percent. With such a large effect, China has an incentive to either not sell arty of its US dollar reserves or sell all of its US dollar reserves.     

Financial crisis and saving–investment dynamics in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: The case of East Asia

Using the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) technique to a set of balanced panel error correction model, we examine the effects of the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the global financial crisis of 2008 on the behavior of saving and investment in East Asian countries. Our results show that saving and investment rates are highly dependent across countries of East Asia. This finding underlines the importance of taking into account cross-sectional dependence when analyzing saving–investment relationship. The results also indicate that the adverse financial shock of 1997 has negatively affected the short run correlation between saving and investment, but has not influenced their long run relationship. Our finding, hence, verifies the prediction of new open economy macroeconomic theories regarding the divergence of short run saving–investment from its long run trend for East Asia. Moreover, we find that the global financial crisis of 2008 has not affected the saving–investment dynamics in this region. It means that the consequences of the Asian and global financial crises for saving–investment dynamics are not the same in East Asia. One might attribute these differences to the origins of these two shocks, i.e., internal versus external to the region. These findings may have some policy implications for those countries that rely heavily on foreign investment and are subject to various internal and external financial shocks.     

Understanding the role of homeownership in wealth inequality: Evidence from urban China (1995–2018)

Many scholars have evaluated the wealth creation effects of homeownership over different time periods and have agreed on the positive role of homeownership. However, there are no consistent mechanisms to measure the impact of homeownership on wealth inequality. Based on data from 1995 to 2018, this paper finds that the expansion of the homeownership rate in urban China was an equalizing force in the distribution of wealth from 1995 to 2008, driven by the increased homeownership and housing acquisition of low- and moderate-income households (LMIs) during the era of housing reform in the 1990s. The forces were exogenous and dominated by a redistributive logic. In the post-reform era after 2008, the decline in the homeownership rate led to a concentration of wealth distribution that was driven by the widening wealth gap between owners and non-owners, which represented an endogenous market force. The results indicate that there was an apparent discontinuity of the trends of homeownership and wealth inequality because new immigrants could not afford the price of housing in the cities. The wealth position of the middle and lower classes (mainly new immigrant non-owners) was crippled, not only by the inaccessibility of homeownership, but also by the reinforcing effect of the increase in housing prices. This study reveals the different mechanisms of homeownership on wealth inequality and the policy implications for the redistributive effects of the allocation of housing resources.     

The price of poverty: The association between childhood poverty and adult income and education in Sweden, 1947–2015

Childhood poverty increases the likelihood of being poor as an adult. We know relatively little about this persistence of poverty in the past and whether it changed as modern welfare societies developed. This study both analyses determinants of childhood poverty and assesses the association between childhood poverty and economic outcomes in adulthood for men and women who grew up in southern Sweden, and who were followed to adulthood regardless of where in Sweden they resided. Poverty is measured in relative terms. Being raised by a single mother, foreign origin, and being raised in a context where the household head was not employed were important risk factors for childhood poverty. Growing up in relative poverty was in turn associated with low income and education in adulthood. Both the persistence and intensity of childhood poverty mattered, and so did the age during which poverty was experienced. Patterns were similar for men and women, and there was no consistent change over time as the Swedish welfare state expanded.     

Poverty in Indonesia 1984–2002: the impact of growth and changes in inequality

This paper examines the growth elasticity of poverty across three development episodes in Indonesia between 1984 and 2002, after controlling for inequality. It relies on estimation of panel data from the National Socio-Economic Survey conducted by the central statistics agency. Contrary to expectations, the growth elasticity of poverty was virtually indistinguishable across the three development episodes – a period of far-reaching policy liberalisation (1984–90); a second period of slower liberalisation (1990–96); and the period of recovery from the Asian financial crisis (1999–2002). Growth was pro-poor in all three periods, while the impact of growth on poverty was either augmented or offset by changes in inequality, depending on the period. Only during the first liberalisation period did a reduction in inequality serve to augment the impact of growth on poverty.     

State-led Catching up Strategies and Inherited Conflicts in Developing the ICT Industry: Behind the US–East Asia Semiconductor Disputes

Abstract

Moving from labour to some capital and knowledge intensive sectors, East Asian countries have actively pursued strategic industrial policies and successfully promoted targeted sectors. However, their growth in high tech sectors challenged the US leadership and the World Trade Organization (WTO)-supported neo-liberal development “wisdom”. Tensions over trade and technology issues eventually exploded into fierce policy conflicts. This study explores the role of the state in a single information and communication technology (ICT) sector, the semiconductor industry, over the course of its evolution in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China. It is hoped to tackle the issues surrounding the conflicts between the Western economic orthodoxy and East Asian development policies through explaining the ICT development pathway of these countries. The finding shows that the international frictions in both ICT trade and technology were inevitable and reflect the divergence of development visions held by latecomers and developed countries.     

Between Malthus and the industrial take-off: regional inequality in Sweden, 1571–1850

The causes and extent of regional inequality in the process of economic growth are at the core of historical economic research. So far, much attention has been devoted to studying the role of industrialization in driving regional divergence. However, empirical studies on relatively unequal countries such as Italy and Spain show that inequality was already high at the outset of modern industrialization. Using new estimates of Swedish regional GDP, this article looks for the first time at regional inequality in a pre-industrial European economy. Its findings show that inequality increased dramatically between 1571 and 1750 and stayed high until the mid-nineteenth century. This result refutes the classical view that the industrial take-off was the main driver of regional divergence. Decomposing the Theil index for GDP per worker, we find that the bulk of inequality from 1750 onwards was driven by structural differences across sectors rather than different regional productivity within sectors. We show that counties with higher agricultural productivity followed a classic Malthusian pattern when experiencing technological advancement, while those with higher industrial productivity did not. We suggest that institutional factors, such as the creation of the Swedish Empire, Stockholm's trading rights, and a protective industrial policy, amplified this exceptional pattern.     

China's growing but slowing inequality of household wealth, 2013–2018: A challenge to ‘common prosperity’?

By examining the period 2013–2018, this paper follows up a previous one which analysed the increase in the inequality of China's wealth per capita over the period 2002–2013. It finds that the Gini coefficient, having risen rapidly over the earlier period, continued to grow but did so more slowly in the later period, at the national level and in both urban and rural China. Counterfactual analysis identifies the lower rate of house price inflation as an important reason for the slowdown. Policies and policy options are examined, both directly on wealth inequality and indirectly through control of house price inflation. Nevertheless, the rising inequality of wealth per capita among households does indeed pose a challenge to the achievement of ‘common prosperity’ in China. It deserves more policy attention.     

Structural reform,intra-regional trade,and medium-term growth prospects of East Asia and the Pacific—Perspectives from a new multi-region model

This paper analyses the potential benefits from reforms aimed at promoting domestic demand in the region, as well as the effects of slower growth in the US and the G3 (US, euro area, and Japan) on the members of the Executives’ Meeting of East Asian-Pacific Central Bank (EMEAP). The analysis is based on simulation scenarios using an expanded version of the IMF Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) model which is particularly useful for conducting medium-term policy analysis, as it incorporates rich layers of intra-regional trade, production, and demand allowing the transmission mechanism of structural reforms and external shocks to be fully articulated. The simulation results show that reforms to rebalance the pattern of demand in regional economies (such as Mainland China) more towards domestic demand could entail non-negligible benefits for the EMEAP. These benefits could be even larger for those economies that more flexibly adjust to the shift in China's trade pattern. The simulation results also demonstrate that structural reforms in EMEAP economies will allow them to reduce vulnerabilities to economic downturns in major economies.     

Dutch Disease in the post-soviet countries of Central and South-West Asia: How contagious is it?

This study seeks to determine the extent to which the former communist states of Central and South-West Asia are “infected” by the Dutch Disease. We take a detailed look at the functioning of the transmission mechanism of the Dutch Disease, i.e. the chains that run from commodity prices to real output in manufacturing. We complement this with two econometric exercises. First, we estimate nominal and real exchange rate models to see whether commodity prices are correlated with the exchange rate. Second, we run growth equations to analyse the possible effects of commodity prices and the dependency of economic growth on natural resources.     

The mobility of top earnings,income, and wealth in China: Facts from the 2011–2017 China household finance survey

We document rich facts of the intra-generational mobility of households in the top fractiles of earnings, income, and wealth distributions in China using the panel data of the 2011–2017 China Household Finance Survey. We find high mobility co-exists with high inequalities within various top fractile groups. In specific, persistence rates of the top 1% group implied an inverted-U pattern for top earnings mobility, a declined trend of top income mobility, and an improved trend for top wealth mobility during the study period. Although the overall trends of mobility for top earnings, income, and wealth showed diverse patterns, they are still considered high from global comparisons. Besides, the top 1% households generate significantly more income from business and allocate a higher fraction of their assets to private equity.     

Swedish Historical National Accounts, 1800–2000: Principles and Implications of a New Generation

Abstract

A new set of data and estimates of historical national accounts for Sweden is concluded with the project Structural Change in the Swedish Economy, 1800–1980: Construction and Analysis of National Product Series. This article provides a short overview of earlier efforts, beginning in the 1930s, to construct historical national accounts and an account of the present project. The new estimates resulted in partly new representations of economic growth and change. They are also compared with earlier data. Furthermore, effects of the deflation techniques ( i.e., double deflation) are analyzed by comparing the series with those resulting from single deflation. Finally, structural changes are analyzed using modern time series analysis.     

Church building and the economy during Europe’s ‘Age of the Cathedrals’, 700–1500 CE

In a Christian age, churches reflected societies’ material resources as well as their religious and cultural aspirations. Data on the construction history of 1,695 major churches in present-day Italy, France, Switzerland, Germany, the Low Countries, and Great Britain are used to infer the trend and pattern of economic activity between 700 and 1500 CE. Across this long and economically formative, but relatively poorly documented era, they are among the few artefacts that can be quantified consistently. This is the first attempt to resolve the methodological challenges entailed in systematically gathering, organising and analysing this information at a supra-national scale. The results imply a transformation in Western Europe from the end of the 10th century with steeply gathering momentum, culminating in the great boom of the 12th century. Fresh light is also shed on the long contraction that set in from the late-13th century. Rising agricultural production and feudal surplus extraction were important drivers early on, but over time construction activity was most vigorous at locations enjoying commercial and especially maritime advantages. By the 15th century, as the impetus of construction was faltering almost everywhere, it was in commercially resilient Brabant and the Netherlands that church building remained most buoyant.     

Analysing post-apartheid poverty trends by geo-type, 1997–2012: The understated role of urbanisation and social grants

This article investigates poverty trends in post-apartheid South Africa with an explicit focus on differences between rural and urban areas. Using nationally representative household survey data from 1997–2012, I first describe changes in population characteristics and household access to different income sources and services, by urban–rural geo-type. Income data are then used to generate poverty statistics, which cast light on divergent trends in rural and urban areas. Next, I employ a poverty decomposition method to further explore some potential reasons why the poverty trends in rural and urban areas have differed. Data from the Afrobarometer are then used to probe how subjective non-monetary welfare has changed over time across geo-types. The evidence from all surveys suggests that the dramatic increase in access to services and social grants in rural areas has played a vital role in poverty reduction.     

The co-movement of stock markets in East Asia: Did the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis really strengthen stock market integration?

This paper examines the integration and causality of interdependencies among seven major East Asian stock exchanges before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. For this purpose, we use daily stock market data from July 1, 1992 to June 30, 2003 in local currency as well as US dollar terms. The data reveal that the relationships among East Asian stock markets are time varying. While stock market interactions are limited before the Asian financial crisis, we find that Hong Kong and Singapore respond significantly to shocks in most other East Asian markets, including Shanghai and Shenzhen, during this crisis. After the crisis, shocks in Hong Kong and Singapore largely affect other East Asian stock markets, except for those in Mainland China. Finally, considering the role of the USA shows that it strongly influences stock returns in East Asia – except for Mainland China – in all periods, while the reverse does not hold true.     

Infant mortality and the health of survivors: Britain, 1910–50

The first half of the twentieth century saw rapid improvements in the health and height of British children. Average height and health can be related to infant mortality through a positive selection effect and a negative scarring effect. Examining town-level panel data on the heights of school children, no evidence is found for the selection effect, but there is some support for the scarring effect. The results suggest that the improvement in the disease environment, as reflected by the decline in infant mortality, increased average height by about half a centimetre per decade in the first half of the twentieth century.     

Provisions for the elderly in north-western Europe: an international comparison of almshouses,sixteenth–twentieth centuries

In Early Modern north-western Europe a unique form of charitable foundation developed – almshouses. These were inhabited by elderly men and women, who had led honourable middle-class lives, but had become unable to support themselves. In towns that were rapidly growing through immigration, many elderly people were without income or family support. The masses of the working-class poor had to resort to outdoor relief and other survival strategies or were confined in old people's homes and hospitals. Almshouses, in which residents could maintain their privacy, autonomy and honour, were a viable middle-class alternative. We argue that this type of provision could rise especially in relatively urbanised, monetised north-western Europe. Here, wage labour was the dominant form of income; nuclear families the prevalent family type, and rich citizens had great interests to invest in building religious and urban communities. Around the North Sea, dependent middle-class elderly could entertain early notions of individualism and privacy, which were not catered for by charitable institutions elsewhere.