Does Regional Financial Development Matter for Growth? Evidence from Indian States

The paper investigates finance–growth relationship across 26 Indian states over the period 1981–2012 in a panel setting. We use four indicators of financial development: credit-GSDP ratio, deposit-GSDP ratio, credit-deposit ratio and branch density and apply panel generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques. We observe positive and significant effect of financial development on economic growth and our findings are robust across alternate indicators of financial development and model specifications. Our findings highlight pivotal role played by financial intermediaries in fostering savings mobilization and financing investment activities across states through channels of deposit mobilization, expansion of credit and greater branch expansion in unbanked locations and consequent reduction of transactions costs. These findings are consistent with observations that much of India’s superior growth performance is attributed to high level of domestic savings. The paper also takes care of issues of bias and precision of various GMM estimators arising out of small sample typically prevalent in empirical growth models like ours.     

Bank credit risk,grain production and the Indian economy

ABSTRACT

We generate measures of banking risk across Indian states and examine the relationship between banking risk and economic production in India. We find that banking risk co-moves with total grain production (TPG) and real gross domestic product (RGDP). The long-term impact of banking risk differs across Indian states. Ten states are negatively affected while one state maintains growth in RGDP. Likewise, the results show that six states are negatively affected while two states maintain growth in TPG. Banking risk is found to induce a larger decline in TPG than in RGDP at the national and state levels. Overall, banking risk shocks induce negative effects on both TPG and RGDP.     

Does state-level per capita income affect juvenile delinquency? An empirical analysis for Indian states

While average juvenile crime rates across India has dropped in recent decades, juvenile property crime rates (total juvenile crimes divided by state population) has actually gone up from 15% in 2000-01 to about 20% in 2013-14. There is huge variation across states when it comes to juvenile crime rates. The literature on juvenile crime in the Indian context is scant. This paper aims to fill the gap in the literature by undertaking a comprehensive analysis of juvenile delinquency related to property crimes across Indian states. Results show that state income per capita has a non-linear impact on incidences of juvenile crime across Indian states - rising when the income starts growing for relatively poorer states but increasing at a diminishing rate when state income per capita rises further. When a poor state gets relatively richer, both opportunities to commit crime and returns from property crime increases. However, as the state grows even richer, growth of employment and state facilities including rehabilitation and redistribution, improve. Further, we find that states with the lowest income per capita and highest level of adult crime face the steepest increase in juvenile crime rates for a rise in state income per capita.     

Growth performance of Indian states

This article is concerned with evaluating the growth performance of states in the Indian Federation. This was sought to be done by estimating growth equations for a group of 19 states in India as well as sub-groups of these states during the period from 1981–1982 to 2004–2005. It has been found that, systematically, the contribution of educational attainment (social sector capital) to the growth process is larger than the contribution of physical capital. An important concern in the article is whether growth regressions estimated for a large group of 19 states can be replicated for smaller sub-groups. The problem of parameter heterogeneity is investigated, and the results of this study show that there is considerable parameter heterogeneity in the growth equations across groups. Rates of convergence estimated in this article also vary from extremely low levels (in the absence of the education variable) to more than 10% (in the presence of the education variable). The results of this study thus point to the great importance of education in improving the growth performance of Indian states.     

The Impact of School Lunches on Primary School Enrollment: Evidence from India's Midday Meal Scheme

At the end of 2001, the Indian Supreme Court issued a directive ordering states to institute school lunches – known locally as “midday meals” – in government primary schools. In this paper we provide a large‐scale assessment of the enrollment effects of India's midday meal scheme, which offers warm lunches, free of cost, to 120 million primary school children across India, and is the largest school feeding program in the world. To isolate the causal effect of the policy, we make use of its staggered implementation across Indian states in government but not private schools. Using a panel dataset of more than 420,000 schools observed annually from 2002 to 2004, we find that midday meals result in substantial increases in primary school enrollment, driven by early primary school responses to the program. Our results are robust to a wide range of specification tests.     

Do Macroeconomics Channels Matter for Examining Relationship Between Public Debt and Economic Growth in India?

Inter-state disparity has been a perennial feature of Indian agriculture. The study probes if per capita income from agriculture has converged across states and finds evidence in favour of beta convergence. Spatial econometric techniques used indicate significant spatial dependence in agricultural growth. Infrastructure like roads, irrigation, and electricity, diversification in cropping pattern and quality of human capital are found to aid in growth. However, excessive rainfall tends to decrease growth rate in India. The spill-over across states are found to be primarily driven by roads, irrigation and rural literacy and we also find significant impact of spatial income growth providing evidence in favour of agglomeration effects. Hence, investments in human capital, physical infrastructure specially water management and incentives towards growing crops which yield higher returns will aid agriculture growth in India.

     

Do political determinants affect the size and composition of public expenditure? A study of the Indian states

This study examines whether there exists a systematic link between the size and composition of public expenditure and the political determinants across the Indian states. Three types of political determinants—forms of governments, government’s ideology, and electoral cycle—are identified and three sets of hypotheses are designed linking these characteristics with three different measures of public expenditure. The hypotheses are tested using a panel dataset of 14 Indian states spread over 27 fiscal years, from 1980–1981 to 2006–2007. The overall findings of the study suggest that the relationship between expenditure measures and political determinants across the Indian states validates the proposed hypotheses even after controlling for the traditional and other unobservable determinants. These findings are robust to various forms of sensitivity analysis.     

The size and development of the shadow economy: An empirical investigation from states of India

Using the state level data from India, this paper investigates the size of the hidden economy in Indian states over the period 1974/75 to 1995/96. Our analysis has shown that after liberalization of the Indian economy in 1991/92, the growth in the size of the hidden economy has decreased on an average. Our results show that the growth in the size of the hidden economy is approximately 4% less in scheduled election years than in all other years. We also demonstrate that the growth is significantly lower in those states where the coalition government is in power. An increased growth of newspapers and the literacy rates translate to cleaner governance, e.g. to fewer amounts of shadow economy activities in the economy.     

Trade and productivity: Self-selection or learning-by-exporting in India

Recent literature tried to explain the Indian growth miracle in different ways, ranging from trade liberalization to industrial reforms. Using data on Indian manufacturing firms, this paper analyzes the relationship between firm's productivity and export market participation during 1991–2004. While it provides evidence of the self-selection hypothesis by showing that more productive firms become exporters, the results do not show that entry into export markets enhances productivity. The paper examines the explanation of self selection hypothesis for total factor productivity differences across 33,510 exporting and non-exporting firms. It uses propensity score matching to test the learning-by-exporting hypothesis. In line with the prediction of recent heterogeneous firm models of international trade, the main finding of the paper is: more productive firms become exporters but it is not the case that learning by exporting is a channel fuelling growth in Indian manufacturing.     

Tax efficiency in selected Indian states

This paper attempts to measure pure tax efficiency of fifteen major Indian states (Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Haryana, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamilnadu, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal) for the period 1980–81 to 1992–93 in a manner that allows this efficiency to vary both across time as well as across states. It is discovered that there is a moral hazard problem in the design of central grants in that higher grants by the central government to the state governments reduce efficiency of tax collection by these states. The less poor states are more efficient in tax collection. The rankings of states by tax efficiency for the various years do not converge. An index of aggregate tax efficiency is calculated and it appears that this index has been stagnating. It is argued that the weight placed on tax effort in the formula determining central grants to state governments should be increased to improve tax efficiency of state governments. First version received: November 1997/final version received: November 1998     

The “V-factor”: Distribution,timing and correlates of the great Indian growth turnaround

We analyze a panel of output series for India, disaggregated by 15 states and 14 broad industry groups. Using principal components (Bai, 2004; Bai and Ng, 2004) we find that a single common “V-factor” captures well the significant shift in the cross-sectional distribution of state-sectoral output growth rates since the 2nd half of the 1980s. The timing of the turnaround implied by the V-factor is more closely related to the pattern of policy reforms than has been found in previous research. Regression-based analysis also provides some insights into the uneven distribution of the turnaround across Indian states.     

Health Expenses: Evidence from the Club Clustering Approach

This paper explores convergence of real health expenses across the Indian states. The new panel convergence methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75:1771–1855, 2007) is employed. The empirical findings suggest that these states form distinct convergent clubs, exhibiting considerable heterogeneity in the underlying health expenses patterns.     

Drivers of firm growth: micro-evidence from Indian manufacturing

This paper investigates the determinants of firm growth for Indian manufacturing enterprises. The study uses the data obtained from the Prowess database, provided by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), covering the period 1991–2010. The study explores the growth of Indian manufacturing firms with respect to 1) its cross-sectional distribution, 2) its dynamics over time, and 3) its determinants. The cross-sectional distributional analysis exhibits high levels of heterogeneity in firm growth patterns, even across firms operating within the same sector, which increases over time. The inter-temporal dynamics observed with the help of transition probabilities matrices suggests that firm growth rates are not highly persistent in time, which is in contrast with the evidence from developed countries. It also reveals the coexistence of firms with very different characteristics and performance within sectors. Given the wide heterogeneity and non-persistent behavior of firm growth rates, this paper resorts to quantile regression analysis to identify the differential effect of regressors at different deciles of the conditional distribution.     

Regional Accounts of India: Methods,New Estimates,and Their Uses

For large economies with substantial regional variation, it is of great importance for policymakers and economic analysis that macro‐economic statistics are broken down by region. This paper reviews the regional accounts in India, discusses their role in Indian federal and state policies, and provides new estimates to cover major data gaps. Statistics on domestic product by Indian state, broken down by industry, are regularly published. But despite demands and recommendations by various commissions and policymakers, a comprehensive system of regional accounts is yet to be developed. New estimates for the period 1993–2010 are presented for saving and the macro‐economic expenditure by Indian states, like final consumption, capital formation, and trade balance. They show, for example, that some of the fastest growing Indian states have increased their saving and investment rates to 50 percent of their domestic product.     

Indiaʼs mysterious manufacturing miracle

Using data on formal manufacturing plants in India, we report a large but imprecise speedup in productivity growth starting in the early 1990s (e.g., 1993–2007 compared to 1980–1992). We trace it to productivity growth within large plants (200 workers or more), as opposed to reallocation across such plants. As many economists believe Indian reforms during this era improved resource allocation, the absence of a growth pickup from reallocation is surprising. Moreover, when we look across industries we fail to robustly relate productivity growth to prominent reforms such as industrial de-licensing, tariff reductions, FDI liberalization, or lifting of small-scale industry reservations. Even under a generous reading of their effects, these reforms (at least as we measure them) account for less than one-third of the rapid productivity growth in Indian manufacturing from 1980–2007.     

RICH STATES,POOR STATES: CONVERGENCE AND POLARISATION IN INDIA

The distribution dynamics of incomes across Indian states are examined using the entire income distribution. Unlike standard regression approaches this approach allows us to identify specific distributional characteristics such as polarisation and stratification. The period between 1965 and 1997 exhibits the formation of two convergence clubs: one at 50% and another at 125% of the national average income. Income disparities across the states declined over the 1960s and then increased from the 1970s to the nineties. Conditioning exercises reveal that the observed polarisation is associated with the disparate distribution of infrastructure. In particular, education, the extent of irrigation and literacy are found to be associated with the formation of the lower convergence club.     

Taxation by auction: fund raising by 19th century Indian guilds

We describe a unique institution used by 19th century Indian guilds to raise funds: on certain holidays only one shop was allowed to operate; an auction would be held to sell this right, and the winning bid would go to the guild fund. We compare this “taxation by auction” mechanism with more conventional tax schemes and show that under certain conditions, not only will a majority of guild members prefer to be taxed via an auction, but that this form of taxation will be more equitable.     

THE IT REVOLUTION ACROSS THE UNITED STATES

In this paper we study the geography of the IT revolution in the U.S. economy. By relating the intensity of IT production and diffusion to labor productivity growth for the United States, we find three main results. First, states with above-average production intensity of IT manufacturing show more growth acceleration than other states. Second, the same applies to states with above-average IT diffusion. Yet, while the result for IT-producing states is strong, the result for IT-using states is somewhat smaller and less robust across specifications. Third, we also reconcile our state-wide pieces of evidence with previous industry and aggregate evidence. Accelerating productivity growth in IT-producing states stems from both IT-producing and IT-using industries in those states and is not a manifestation of the exclusive importance of IT production. Moreover, the less robust evidence for IT-using states is due to lower growth contributions from IT-producing and other industries in these states, not a symptom of a missing effect of IT usage.     

The Effect of Inequality on Growth: Theory and Evidence from the Indian States

The paper examines the effect of inequality on growth among the subnational states in India. Theoretically, growth of the regional economy is driven by productive public investment in the provision of health and education services financed by a linear output tax, and the optimum tax rate is determined by the median voter. In contrast to existing results, the authors obtain an ambiguous relationship between initial inequality and subsequent economic growth. Analysis of the Indian state‐level data suggests that rural inequality influences growth of total output more than urban inequality, and does so negatively. The indicator of intersectoral inequality is more important in explaining sectoral output growth.     

Does delegation of fiscal policy to an independent agency make a difference? Evidence from intergovernmental transfers in India

One area of fiscal policy in which several countries have delegated responsibility to an independent agency is the distribution of national resource transfers across regional and local governments. Such delegation is expected to promote equity and efficiency, and mitigate distortions created by political incentives. This paper tests whether delegation to an independent agency indeed makes a difference by contrasting the impact of partisan politics on two types of fiscal transfers to states in the Indian federation over a period of time, 1972–1995. The pattern of evidence shows that, while the transfers that are determined by the central political executive are indeed distributed to favor particular states that are politically important for the central ruling party, the transfers that are delegated to an independent agency serve to constrain such partisan impact.