Life Expectancies for Small Areas: A Bayesian Random Effects Methodology

Monitoring small area contrasts in life expectancy is important for health policy purposes but subject to difficulties under conventional life table analysis. Additionally, the implicit model underlying conventional life table analysis involves a highly parametrized fixed effect approach. An alternative strategy proposed here involves an explicit model based on random effects for both small areas and age groups. The area effects are assumed to be spatially correlated, reflecting unknown mortality risk factors that are themselves typically spatially correlated. Often mortality observations are disaggregated by demographic category as well as by age and area, e.g. by gender or ethnic group, and multivariate area and age random effects will be used to pool over such groups. A case study considers variations in life expectancy in 1 118 small areas (known as wards) in Eastern England over a five-year period 1999–2003. The case study deaths data are classified by gender, age, and area, and a bivariate model for area and age effects is therefore applied. The interrelationship between the random area effects and two major influences on small area life expectancy is demonstrated in the study, these being area socio-economic status (or deprivation) and the location of nursing and residential homes for frail elderly.     

Evolution of heterogeneous beliefs and asset overvaluation

I analyze a model in which different agents have different non-rational expectations about the future price and cash flows of a risky asset. The beliefs in the society evolve according to a very general class of evolution functions that are monotone; that is if one type has increased its share in the population then all types with higher profit should also have increased their shares. I show that the price of the risky asset converges to the risk-neutral fundamental price even though all agents in the economy are risk-averse. The risky asset thus becomes overvalued as compared to the equilibrium with rational expectations. The overvaluation is a result of the evolution of beliefs and does not rely on such asymmetric assumptions as short-sale constraints or optimistic bias.     

A novel method as a diagnostic tool for the detection of influential observations in the Cox proportional hazards model

It is important that the process of studying and modelling the prognosis of disability should be conducted using time-to-event data, as the dynamic nature of disability could cause intervention on the modifiable (prognostic) factors, thus changing the course to a more favourable outcome. In disability research, the Cox PH model is frequently used to identify prognostic factors for the life expectancy of people with disabilities and to evaluate the treatment effects on the time to event. Accurate detection of influential observations is an important factor when fitting the Cox PH model, as influential observations in the Cox PH model can cause model misspecification, inaccurately determined factors, missed valuable biological information and/or violation of the proportional hazard assumption. In this paper, a novel multiple case detection method for influential observations is recommended in the Cox model. The aim of the paper is to inform clinicians and researchers who use the Cox PH model for describing the survival time as a function of multiple prognostic factors, regarding the importance of the detection of influential observations that can lead to misleading conclusions if they are present in the data set. The efficiency of the proposed method is presented through the real dataset. Additionally, in the specific case of North Cyprus, the aim is emphasize the importance of survival modelling studies that determine the prognostic factors affecting the lives of people with disabilities, to improve life quality and to develop a plan for healthier and higher quality life styles programmes for people with disabilities. As a first step, it is recommended that a system of database records of disabilities should be established and maintained by the government to raise public awareness.

     

Exploring the linkage between human capital and economic growth: A look at 141 developing and developed countries

As a factor of production, human capital is defined both in its health and educational dimensions, incorporating qualitative and quantitative aspects. Using a panel of 141 countries (93 developing and 48 developed), we attempt to explore and compare the impact of human capital on economic growth at different development stages. For our estimation, we employ the System Generalized Methods of Moments (SGMM) for the period 1980–2008. Our findings reveal that all aspects of human capital positively influence growth in developing countries, especially life expectancy gain, which may be explained by the demographic transition these countries are going through. However, the scenario is different for developed countries, where increased life expectancy posits a drag on economic growth, probably because of the increasingly aging population and dependency ratio. Only when life expectancy is omitted does health expenditure, along with other educational measures of human capital, help sustain growth in developed countries.     

关于高职学生作文的一点思考

作文不仅综合反映了学生的知识水平和听说读写的能力状况,而且全面反映他们的观察力、联想力、思维力等智力因素及习惯、信念、情感等非智力因素。但多数高职学生在心理上对作文产生抵触,作文教学现状也不容乐观,写作训练收效甚微,学生的写作能力不堪一提。本文从学生作文现状、作文心理等方面进行了简要分析,并就如何提高学生的作文能力进行了一点思考。     

Managerial attitudes toward environmental management within Australia,the People's Republic of China and Indonesia

This study presents a survey of the attitudes of corporate managers and managerial students across Australia, the People's Republic of China and Indonesia toward 18 key contemporary environmental management issues. The study sought to explore whether respondents from these countries, characterized by differing levels of development, also differ in their attitude toward environmental management. Results indicated that, despite age being a moderating factor, significant differences did exist between the 676 country respondents on 15 of the 18 questions. Contrary to expectations, Australian respondents were more cautious of supporting a forthright view on environmental issues, whilst Chinese respondents favoured a more centralized approach to decision making regarding the environment. The results lend marginal support to the new environmental paradigm (NEP), but also to the radicalization of environmental issues and age as a possible influence on respondent beliefs. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

SELF-ESTEEM, INTERNAL-CONTROL AND EXPECTANCY BELIEFS OF WHITE AND BLACK MANAGERS IN SOUTH AFRICA

The relationship between internal-control, self-esteem and self-respect measures of the effort-performance and performance-outcome beliefs – the two major beliefs of the expectancy model of work motivation – were examined in a sample of forty-two white and thirty-eight black managers in South Africa. The correlations between self-esteem and the effort-performance belief and between internal-control and the performance-outcome belief were both significant in the white group but not in the black group. The white managers were significantly more internally oriented and had significantly higher levels of self-esteem than the black mangers. The white-black differences are explained in terms of features of the current socio-political systems in South Africa. The fact that in both groups the two beliefs correlated significantly together and equally with the self-esteem and internal-control suggests that the two beliefs may not be as independent as is implied by expectancy theory.     

An optimistic search equilibrium

We study a market search equilibrium with aggregate uncertainty, private information and heterogeneous beliefs that are initially optimistic. Despite these biased beliefs, it is shown that all optimistic equilibria converge to perfect competition in the limit as the time between matches tends to 0.     

How money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs affect asset prices

We develop a dynamic asset pricing model with two investors with money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs about some aspects of the economy. The model is tractable and delivers closed forms for all equilibrium quantities. The study shows that money illusion leads the nominal shock risk to generate spillover effects on the real side of the economy and affects all equilibrium quantities, even without inflation disagreement. We find that bond yields increase, but the stock price decreases, as money illusion increases. Bond yield and stock price volatilities increase with fundamental disagreement, while the latter decreases with inflation disagreement. We also discover that the stock risk premium is inverse-U shaped as inflation disagreement increases. Moreover, we find that the optimistic investor holds positions in real bonds and stocks, and shorts the nominal bond to hedge against the risk of market changes, which is in line with the pessimistic investor’s beliefs.     

Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes

In this paper, we develop solutions for linearized models with forward‐looking expectations and structural changes under a variety of assumptions regarding agents' beliefs about those structural changes. For each solution, we show how its associated likelihood function can be constructed by using a ‘backward–forward’ algorithm. We illustrate the techniques with two examples. The first considers an inflationary program in which beliefs about the inflation target evolve differently from the inflation target itself, and the second applies the techniques to estimate a new Keynesian model through the Volcker disinflation. We compare our methodology with the alternative in which structural change is captured by switching between regimes via a Markov switching process. We show that our method can produce accurate results much faster than the Markov switching method as well as being easily adapted to handle beliefs departing from reality. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Latent Class Analysis of Respondent Scalability

The psychometric literature contains many indices to detect aberrant respondents. A different, promising approach is using ordered latent class analysis with the goal to distinguish latent classes of respondents that are scalable, from latent classes of respondents that are not scalable (i.e., aberrant) according to the scaling model adopted. This article examines seven Latent Class models for a cumulative scale. A simulation study was performed to study the efficacy of different models for data that follow the scale model perfectly. A second simulation study was performed to study how well these models detect aberrant respondents.     

Do Overconfident Workers Cooperate Less? The Relationship Between Overconfidence and Cooperation in Team Production

The tendency to underestimate others' relative performance compared with one's own is widespread among individuals in all work environments. We examine the relationship between, and the driving forces behind, individual overconfidence and voluntary cooperation in team production. Our experimental data suggest an indirect and gender‐specific link: overconfident men hold more optimistic beliefs about coworkers' cooperativeness than men who lack confidence and are accordingly significantly more cooperative, whereas overconfidence, beliefs, and cooperativeness are not correlated in women. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

DIFFERENCES IN BELIEFS ABOUT WORK BETWEEN MANAGERS AND BLUE-COLLAR WORKERS

The beliefs about work of managers and blue-collar workers in the U.S.A. and Scotland were determined through a questionnaire. Both managers and blue-collar workers strongly endorsed humanistic beliefs and were indifferent to the work ethic. Blue-collar workers endorsed more strongly than managers beliefs about worker exploitation and the value of participation. In Scotland, there was a wide difference in the perceived value of leisure between managers and workers. It appears that the Scottish respondents hold fewer independent beliefs than their U. S. counterparts.     

Corruption,development and demography

This paper presents an analysis of the joint, endogenous determination of bureaucratic corruption, economic development and demographic transition. The analysis is based on an overlapping generations model in which reproductive agents mature safely through two periods of life and face a probability of surviving for a third period. This survival probability depends on the provision of public goods and services which may be compromised by corrupt activities on the part of public officials. The dynamic general equilibrium of the economy is characterised by multiple development regimes, transition between which may or may not be feasible. In accordance with empirical evidence, the model predicts that low (high) levels of development are associated with high (low) levels of corruption and low (high) rates of life expectancy. The authors are grateful for the comments of two anonymous referees on an earlier version of the paper. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Charity E‐volution? An evaluation of the attitudes of UK charities towards website adoption and use

• The objective of the research was to assess attitudes in relation to website adoption and use, across a broad spectrum of UK charities. A survey methodology was adopted for the research, administered using a self‐completion questionnaire. The results reveal that although the majority of responding charities have websites, most appear to be using them to deliver information about the organisation and its mission, rather than acquiring new supporters, raising funds or allowing beneficiaries/clients to interact. However, overall, respondents were positive regarding the use of websites by charities, and most are optimistic about future improvements in their own online performance.

Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Levensduur en sloop van personenauto's in Nederland, 1950–1964*

Summary The life distribution of motorcars is examined over the period from 1950 to 1964. Age-specific survival rates, derived from Dutch registrations, are averaged and lead to the life table shown in table 4. The deviations from average age-specific survival rates show no significant variation over time nor over successive car generations. Since the registrations include an increasing number of used cars imported from Germany this apparent stability hides compensating changes in car scrap page. Since before the war the life expectancy of motorcars has increased from 8 to 11 years, and it is argued that this is due to the widening of the used car market. In the next stage, which is already well under way in Germany, new cars replace used cars, and rising apparent scrappage rates reflect the disposal of the latter by export.     

Parental altruism, life expectancy and dynamically inefficient equilibria

This paper presents a continuous time overlapping-generation (OLG) model which generalizes the Blanchard–Buiter–Weil model and clarifies the relationships between dynastic altruism, the length of planning horizons, and dynamic inefficiency. Our main innovation relies on the introduction of parental altruism, whose intensity is variable. We first show that parental altruism and life expectancy do favor overaccumulation. Second, we give a condition that explains why the Ramsey model may only display dynamic efficiency. These theoretical results are illustrated by a parameterization from US data. Our numerical exercises suggest that the US economy is dynamically efficient, mainly because of the shortness of life expectancy.     

Kwantificering in de sociologie

Ensuing the recognition of indirect measurement of so-called non-measurable data in sociological research, many kinds of indices and scales have been constructed in order to grasp the essence of complex reality. Especially in the realm of attitude research the use of e.g. the GUTTMAN scale has been fruitful. Notwithstanding many critical remarks, new developments in scaling theory and scaling techniques warrant an optimistic view of sociology as an exact empirical science. More than up to now statistical thinking and methods will have to play a part in this development.     

寿命延长与延迟退休：国际比较与我国实证

基于国际比较的视角,探讨人口寿命延长与延迟退休之间的机制关系,分析国际上人口寿命延长与延迟退休的实践。通过对我国人口寿命延长趋势的研究,在一定的精算假设下,测算延迟退休对我国养老金支付压力的影响,并分析经济、制度等因素变动对测算结果的敏感性。结论表明,我国人口寿命延长趋势显著,延迟退休能够有效缓解老金支付压力,但在不同的性别之间有所差异。经济、制度等因素与延迟退休之间具有一定的替代效应,尽管延迟退休是未来我国应对人口寿命延长的必然选择,但目前建立二者的调整机制条件尚未成熟。     

Efficient estimation of factor models with time and cross‐sectional dependence

This paper studies the efficient estimation of large‐dimensional factor models with both time and cross‐sectional dependence assuming (N,T) separability of the covariance matrix. The asymptotic distribution of the estimator of the factor and factor‐loading space under factor stationarity is derived and compared to that of the principal component (PC) estimator. The paper also considers the case when factors exhibit a unit root. We provide feasible estimators and show in a simulation study that they are more efficient than the PC estimator in finite samples. In application, the estimation procedure is employed to estimate the Lee–Carter model and life expectancy is forecast. The Dutch gender gap is explored and the relationship between life expectancy and the level of economic development is examined in a cross‐country comparison.