Does More Consumption Promote Real GDP Growth?

This paper employs Hansen's (1999) panel threshold regression model [Journal of Econometrics 39 (1999) 345–68] based on a time series dataset of 109 countries from 1960 to 2007 to investigate the threshold relationship between the change in real GDP per capita and the consumption size (consumption‐income ratio, APC). The results show that the consumption level should not exceed the 49.68% threshold of real GDP per capita for each country regardless of the income level. Also, the relationship between the change in real GDP per capita and the consumption size seems to have ‘Armey curve’ or ‘inverted‐U shape’ characteristic. In order to promote real GDP growth, our results suggest that the high‐income, low‐APC countries should encourage more consumption while the low‐income, high‐APC countries should encourage more saving.     

On poverty traps,thresholds and take-offs

Recent studies on economic growth focus on persistent inequality across countries. In this paper we study mechanisms that may give rise to such persistent inequality. We consider countries that accumulate capital in order to increase the per capita income in the long run. We show that the long-run growth dynamics of those countries can generate a twin-peak distribution of per capita income. The twin-peak distribution is caused by (1) locally increasing returns to scale and (2) capital market constraints. These two forces give rise to a twin-peaked distribution of per capita income in the long run. In our model investment decisions are separated from consumption decisions and we thus do not have to consider preferences. Empirical evidence in support of a twin-peak distribution of per capita income is provided.     

Income inequality and export prices across countries

This paper provides theory and evidence on the links between income inequality within a destination country and the patterns of trade and export prices. The theoretical framework relates income inequality to product quality and prices using a simple demand composition effect. The model predicts that a more unequal income distribution in a destination country leads to higher average prices, though the effect is nonlinear and disappears for rich enough countries. The predictions are tested using detailed firm‐level data. Controlling for income per capita, prices are systematically higher in more unequal destinations, and the strength of this effect depends on income per capita. Results are particularly important for middle‐income countries and hold only for differentiated goods, and in particular for products with a high degree of vertical differentiation.     

Global distribution and dynamics of economic freedom: Non-parametric approach

The paper exploits the distributional dynamics and structural changes in the endogenous distribution of economic freedom across countries over time by utilizing the Rosenblatt–Parzen Kernel density estimator compared to the original distribution based on the methodology proposed by the Heritage Foundation. We utilize the distribution of economic freedom as a tool to identify which policies enhanced the overall level of economic freedom. We develop the distribution of endogenous economic freedom by decomposing effects of economic freedom on the level of income per capita in IV–2SLS estimation framework for a panel of 134 countries to identify the effect of institutions of economic freedom on the level of per capita income. Structural estimates indicate that improvements in the monetary, fiscal, and labor freedom exert the strongest direct effect on the level of economic freedom and indirect effect on the level of real income per capita. Our study demonstrates considerable differences between the original and endogenous distributional dynamics of economic freedom over time. In exploiting the non-parametric setting of endogenous economic freedom, we identify a recent emergence of twin-peak distribution across countries where developing nations have improved the level of economic freedom considerably compared to the initial year.     

In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries: The way forward

This paper challenges the widespread belief that FDI generally has a positive impact on economic growth in developing countries. It addresses the limitations of the existing literature and re-examines the FDI-led growth hypothesis for 28 developing countries using cointegration techniques on a country-by-country basis. The paper finds that in the vast majority of countries, there exists neither a long-term nor a short-term effect of FDI on growth; in fact, there is not a single country where a positive unidirectional long-term effect from FDI to GDP is found. Furthermore, our results indicate that there is no clear association between the growth impact of FDI and the level of per capita income, the level of education, the degree of openness and the level of financial market development in developing countries.     

哈尔滨地区金融知识普及教育现状调研报告及对策研究

近年来,中国经济实现了快速稳定发展,GDP逐年提升,人均收入水平不断提高,人们持有的金融资产不断增加,越来越多的人需要对自己的财富进行合理规划。同时,中国的金融业得到迅猛发展,金融服务领域不断拓宽,金融产品不断更新换代。但是,居民的金融知识水平还处于一个相对低下的水平,许多人对金融知识并不是十分了解。基于现状,围绕哈尔滨地区金融知识的普及教育状况,通过调研数据分析得出结论,并提出相应的解决对策。     

Inequality and income: The mediating effects of social spending and risk

This paper estimates models of social spending, income risk, and per capita income levels using data from a post-war panel of OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries. The objective is to test two theories about the pathway from inequality to per capita income. According to one theory, inequality reduces incomes because it induces social spending, which acts as a drag on the economy. The results here suggest, however, that inequality does not seem to induce social spending, and social spending does not seem to lower per capita incomes. According to a second theory, inequality causes upheaval which adds to the volatility of per capita income, which may reduce the level of per capita income. The results suggest, however, that volatility, measured here as the standard deviation of per capita income, has little measurable impact on either per capita income or social spending. The mainsprings of per capita income are more likely to be the traditional factors: the work force, human capital, and physical capital.
JEL classification: E6.     

Are Parental Characteristics Important for Child Survival? The Case of Vietnam

While remaining one of the poorest countries in the world, Vietnam's infant and child mortality rates have been much lower than those observed for countries with similar or even higher levels of real income per capita. The paper investigates the role of parents' characteristics in affecting survival of their children, using a logistic discrete-time model and data from the Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey 1988 . It is found that infant mortality is significantly higher for children of mothers with no formal education. However, parents' other socioeconomic characteristics, including mothers attaining levels of education higher than the primary level, are not important for explaining differences in child survival. There is some evidence that children of higher orders of birth face higher risk. Results on the effects of maternal education diverge from findings for other countries, but can perhaps be explained by the country's distinctive features.     

PUBLIC EDUCATION, FERTILITY INCENTIVES, NEOCLASSICAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND WELFARE

Using a simple overlapping generations model of neoclassical growth, we analyse the effects of both child allowances and the system of public education on the rate of fertility, the per capita income and the individual lifetime welfare. The essential message of the present paper is that developed countries plagued by below-replacement fertility and income stagnation may raise per capita income and the rate of fertility at the same time by increasing the public education expenditure rather than by resorting to child allowances. The latter, in fact, are found to be harmful for long-run neoclassical economic growth and, in contrast with the common belief, for the rate of population growth as well. Moreover, welfare analysis has shown the existence of a Pareto-efficient welfare-maximizing educational contribution rate.     

中国汽车需求预测:基于Gompertz模型的分析

人均收入水平是影响汽车拥有率的决定性因素.本文在前人研究的基础上,运用Gomp-ertz模型研究汽车拥有率和人均收入之间的非线性关系.本文选取的研究对象既包括当今的发达国家,又包括众多发展中国家,尤其是亚洲的欠发达国家.通过对各国的时间序列数据和多国的横截面数据做回归,并对汽车拥有率及其收入弹性做国际比较,研究发现Gompertz方程能够很好地解释各国汽车拥有率发展共有趋势:在一国经济发展过程中,汽车拥有率先加速增长,在经历了一个拐点后,减速增长,最后无限趋近于共有的餍足点,本文设为0.62;而收入弹性呈先上升,在达到最大值后下降的状态.本文重点分析了近年来中国的汽车拥有率问题,并预测出中国的汽车拥有率拐点在人均GDP YIP=12 000,汽车拥有率VIp=0.2281上,假定中国人均GDP的增长速度在3%-7%的范围内,这个拐点将发生在2015-2042年之间,那时的汽车总量将大于259 996 496辆.此外,收入分配不均对中国的汽车拥有率有着重要的影响.     

Quality of Education,Economic Performance and Institutional Environment

This paper addresses two questions. First, how does the quality, rather than the quantity, of education impact economic performance? Second, does the quality of education have a larger impact on economic performance in countries with better institutions (i.e., social and political variables which affect economic outcomes)? Using data from more than fifty countries, we observe that there is a positive relationship between the quality of education and GDP per capita. In addition, we find that the quality of education has a more beneficial effect on GDP per capita in countries with better law and order conditions, government stability, and overall institutional environment. These results remain unchanged under various scenarios.     

Sources of inequality in selected MENA countries

The paper deals with income inequality in the selected MENA countries focusing on the dynamics of domestic wage differentiations. The main aim is to identify the sources of inequalities. GDP per capita, share of manufacturing sector, urban share of population, gender participation in the labor force, education and openness may be possible factors. The paper analyzes pay inequalities using a panel regression model where the Theil index is used as the dependent variable. The results show that GDP per capita and female labor force participation have positive (increasing) effects, and openness has a negative (decreasing) effect on pay inequalities in these countries.     

Is corruption in China “out of control”? A comparison with the US in historical perspective

This paper compares corruption in China over the past 15 years with corruption in the US between 1870 and 1930, periods that are roughly comparable in terms of real income per capita. Corruption indicators for both countries and both periods are constructed by tracking corruption news in prominent US newspapers. Several robustness checks confirm the reliability of the constructed corruption indices for both countries. The comparison indicates that corruption in the US in the early 1870s, when its real income per capita was about $2800 (in 2005 dollars), was 7–9 times higher than China’s corruption level in 1996, the corresponding year in terms of income per capita. By the time the US reached $7500 in 1928, approximately equivalent to China’s real income per capita in 2009, corruption was similar in both countries. The findings imply that, while corruption in China is an issue that merits attention, it is not at alarmingly high levels, compared to the US historical experience. In addition, the paper articulates a theoretical framework within which the relationship between corruption and economic development can be understood. The model is used to explain the “life-cycle” of corruption in the development process–rising at the early stages of development, and declining after modernization has taken place. Hence, as China continues its development process, corruption will likely decline.     

Trade imbalance in international message telephone services

An econometric model is estimated to identify determinants of trade imbalance in international message telephone services markets. Results indicate that asymmetric market structure is important in explaining bilateral market imbalances for high income country pairs. For low and high income country pairs, GDP per capita is the dominant cause of traffic imbalances. The findings suggest that telecommunications liberalization policies are effective in reducing distortions in international traffic flows and settlement payments. However, liberalization should be accompanied by developmental programmes that enhance income per capita and telecommunications network investment in developing countries. Such programmes may be effective in providing a more equitable distribution of the gains from telecommunications reform across countries.     

Heterogeneity in Ability and Inheritance,Disparities, and Development

This paper investigates the impact of income inequality on economic growth. A two-period overlapping generations model is developed where agents are heterogeneous in innate abilities and inheritance. In the first period, they receive their inheritance and their abilities are revealed. There are only two types of abilities: high and low. Individuals decide on their education level, and divide their inheritance between spending on education and saving. In the second period, individuals supply their labor and allocate the labor income and the return to their saving between consumption and bequests to their offsprings. Initial capital stock is owned entirely by the capitalists. In this context, a more equal distribution of income enhances economic growth if the economy is lower than a threshold capital-labor ratio, while income inequality has an insignificant effect above this threshold. The predictions of the model are tested empirically using the Hansen (1999) threshold estimation. The results, using a panel of 70 countries for the period 1971-1999, suggest that there is a statistically significant threshold income per capita, below which the coefficient on the relationship between inequality and economic growth is significantly negative and above which the estimate is not significant.     

Skill Composition,Fertility, and Economic Growth

While high fertility persists in the poorest countries and fertility declines with per capita income in developing countries, fertility and per capita income are now positively associated across most developed countries. This paper presents a model where a U‐shaped relationship between overall fertility and per capita income reflects within country differences in workforce skill composition and household choice of occupation, fertility, and childrearing. The fraction of skilled workers rises with economic growth. By allowing for both differences in the fertility of skilled and unskilled workers and purchased childrearing inputs, we explain a poverty trap with high fertility, fertility decline with economic development, and the possible reversal of fertility decline in a developed economy where most workers are skilled.     

New evidence on income and the geographical distribution of imports: The case of audiovisuals

This paper studies how the geographical distribution of imports, in the audiovisual sector, varies with aggregate income across countries to confront existing fears of cultural homogenization with increasing purchasing power. Relying on new predictions derived from an heterogenous firms model (Helpman, Melitz & Rubinstein, 2008), two dimensions of diversity are investigated: the number of geographical origins (extensive margin) and the distribution of audiovisual imports across exporters (intensive margin). The empirical results reveal that per capita income fosters diversity up to point: income first has a positive impact on the extensive margin, yet beyond a certain threshold, the number of import sources declines. Regarding the intensive margin, per capita income reinforces the concentration of import flows across origins benefiting the most efficient partners.     

海南省农民增收途径研究

以海南省统计调查资料为基础,分析海南省农村居民人均纯收入的现状及其影响因素,揭示农民纯收入的基本特征,并提出提高海南省农村居民人均纯收入的对策。     

The non-linear effects of life expectancy on economic growth

This paper shows that improvements in life expectancy (LE) had a non-linear effect on income per capita over the 1940-1980 period as this effect was conditional on each country’s initial level of LE. Whereas higher LE had an initial statistically significant negative impact on income per capita in countries with LE under 43 years in 1940, the opposite is true in countries with initial LE over 53 years.     

On the relationship between GDP and health care expenditure: A new look

In this paper we analyze the relationship between income and health expenditure in 31 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. We focus on the differences between short and long term elasticities and we also check the adjustment process of health care expenditure to changes in per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its cyclical and trend components. In both cases, we test if results differ in countries with a higher share of private expenditure on total health expenditure. Econometric results show that the long-run income elasticity is close to unity, that health expenditure is more sensitive to per capita income cyclical movements than to trend movements, and that the adjustment to income changes in those countries with a higher share of private health expenditure over total expenditure is faster.