Risky bank lending and countercyclical capital buffers

We study the properties of a monetary economy with an essential role for risky bank lending. Banks issue deposits and lend to entrepreneurs. Because banks׳ lending rate cannot be made contingent on aggregate shocks, and because banks face capital adequacy regulations, they require a capital buffer against loan losses. Capital adequacy regulations are modeled on the Basel-III rules, including a minimum capital adequacy ratio, an endogenous capital conservation buffer, and a countercyclical capital buffer. We find that a countercyclical capital buffer leads to a significant increase in welfare. It also reduces the need for countercyclical adjustments in policy interest rates.     

International Leadership in Productivity at the Aggregate and Industry Level

Since many policies affect specific parts of economies differently, it is useful to decompose GDP per capita differences across countries into differences across smaller and smaller parts of economies. In this paper, we summarize recent contributions in this area and fit them together into a decomposition procedure for GDP per capita differences. The overall finding is that the U.S. is the productivity leader for the most of the economy. Moreover, international productivity differences at the aggregate level of the economies are in most cases translated into differences in the productivity of industries, at least compared to the productivity leader U.S. The variability of productivity differences at the industry level is, however, substantially higher than any differences at the aggregate or sector level. For the manufacturing sector alone the U.S. and Japan share the leadership on the industry level. In contrast, France, U.K., and Germany exhibit almost no leadership in productivity at the industry level. Hence, nation-specific factors appear to be dominant in the comparison of European countries with the U.S. Finally, mix differences do not play a very large role for big countries. For Germany, however, the mix effect can help to reconcile relative high productivity for the market economy and lower productivity at disaggregated levels.     

Undesirable outputs and a primal Divisia productivity index based on the directional output distance function

Despite their great popularity, all the conventional Divisia productivity indexes ignore undesirable outputs. The purpose of this study is to fill in this gap by proposing a primal Divisia-type productivity index that is valid in the presence of undesirable outputs. The new productivity index is derived by total differentiation of the directional output distance function with respect to a time trend and referred to as the Divisia–Luenberger productivity index. We also empirically compare the Divisia–Luenberger productivity index and a representative of the conventional Divisia productivity indexes–the radial-output-distance-function-based Feng and Serletis (2010) productivity index–using aggregate data on 15 OECD countries over the period 1981–2000. Our empirical results show that failure to take into account undesirable outputs not only leads to misleading rankings of countries both in terms of productivity growth and in terms of technological change, but also results in wrong conclusions concerning efficiency change.     

An aggregate quantity framework for measuring and decomposing productivity change

Total factor productivity (TFP) can be defined as the ratio of an aggregate output to an aggregate input. This definition naturally leads to TFP indexes that can be expressed as the ratio of an output quantity index to an input quantity index. If the aggregator functions satisfy certain regularity properties then these TFP indexes are said to be multiplicatively complete. This paper formally defines what is meant by completeness and reveals that (1) the class of multiplicatively complete TFP indexes includes Laspeyres, Paasche, Fisher, T?rnqvist and Hicks-Moorsteen indexes, (2) the popular Malmquist TFP index of Caves et al. (Econometrica 50(6):1393?C1414, 1982a) is incomplete, implying it cannot always be interpreted as a measure of productivity change, (3) all multiplicatively complete TFP indexes can be exhaustively decomposed into measures of technical change and efficiency change, and (4) the efficiency change component can be further decomposed into measures of technical, mix and scale efficiency change. Artificial data are used to illustrate the decomposition of Hicks-Moorsteen and Fisher TFP indexes.     

Loan managers’ decisions and trust in entrepreneurs in different institutional contexts

Loan managers’ trust in entrepreneurs can be a useful tool for overcoming entrepreneurial firms’ opaqueness. Nevertheless, the possibility for loan managers to leverage trust can be affected by differences in the regulative institutions within the banks (type of bank) and by place-bound normative institutions (social context). By relying on semi-structured interviews and a survey of 450 bank-entrepreneur relationships, this study finds that a positive impact of trust in lending relationships is sensitive to different place-bound normative institutions and to the regulative institutions within the banks. The results are robust with respect to potential endogeneity issues.     

Costly external finance,reallocation, and aggregate productivity

Empirical studies document that resource reallocation across production units plays an important role in accounting for aggregate productivity growth in the US manufacturing. Financial market frictions could distort the reallocation process and hence may hinder aggregate productivity growth. This paper studies the quantitative impact of costly external finance on aggregate productivity through resource reallocation across firms with idiosyncratic productivity shocks. A partial equilibrium model calibrated to the US manufacturing data shows that costly external finance causes inefficient output reallocation from high productivity firms to low productivity firms and as a result leads to a 1 percent loss in aggregate TFP.     

The best of both worlds: how rural entrepreneurs use placial embeddedness and strategic networks to create opportunities

Entrepreneurial activities are strongly influenced by the context in which they occur. It is therefore imperative to understand how different contexts enable entrepreneurs to create opportunities. In this paper, we focus on the spatial context of rural entrepreneurs and explore how the rural context impacts on their opportunity creation. Based on a multiple case study, we find that rural entrepreneurs mix what we refer to as placial embeddedness – an intimate knowledge of and concern for the place – with strategically built non-local networks, i.e. the best of two worlds. Notably, the entrepreneurs seek to exhaust the localized resource base before seeking out non-local resources. Our findings thus contribute to our understanding of entrepreneurship in context and challenge future research to explore how different forms of contexts are bridged in different settings to create varieties of entrepreneurial activities.     

Consumer misperceptions,uncertain fundamentals,and the business cycle

This paper estimates the importance of shocks to consumer misperceptions “noise shocks” for U.S. business cycle fluctuations. I embed imperfect information as in Lorenzoni (2009) into a Smets and Wouters (2007)-type DSGE model. Agents only observe aggregate productivity and a signal about the permanent component contaminated with noise. Based on this information agents form beliefs about the temporary and the permanent component of productivity. Shocks to the signal (noise shocks) trigger aggregate fluctuations unrelated to changes in productivity. Bayesian estimation shows that noise shocks explain up to 14 percent of output and up to 25 percent of consumption fluctuations. Nominal rigidities and the specification of the monetary policy rule are crucial for the importance of noise shocks. These features help to resolve conflicting results in the previous literature.     

Lending constraints,real estate prices and business cycles in emerging economies

We investigate a small open economy with constraints in both the domestic and the international credit market. The informational opaqueness of the domestic market hinders foreign lenders' activity, so that entrepreneurs face looser borrowing constraints vis-à-vis domestic financiers. However, limited capitalization constrains domestic lenders. Calibrating the model to data from Argentina, we find that the interaction between lending and borrowing constraints is a channel through which real interest rate shocks generate fluctuations in output, real estate prices and consumption. External financial liberalization increases volatility and affects welfare more than domestic liberalization but also mitigates the destabilizing impact of domestic deregulation.     

Humanistic entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial career commitment

Although the crucial role of entrepreneurs in the process of establishing firms is common knowledge in SME research, a major theoretical problem has been how to combine theories of ‘persons’ (entrepreneurs) with theories of ‘organizations’ (firms).

In this study I suggest that what is missing is a dynamic or processual approach to the study of entrepreneurs. Just as organizations change during their development, so do persons. In order to understand how in particular new firms come about, we should look more closely into the dynamics of personal change that lead certain individuals to commit themselves to entrepreneurial careers.

A study of humanistic entrepreneurs in Denmark indicates that the process of becoming an entrepreneur can be seen as a particular kind of career commitment. The emergence of such career commitments is analysed. Different patterns of entrepreneurial career commitments are presented and explained in terms of both structural conditions and biographical self–narratives.     

Capital,credit constraints and the comovement between consumer durables and nondurables

Evidence indicates that consumer durables are more flexibly priced than nondurable goods and services. In otherwise standard two-sector neoclassical sticky-price models with flexible durable prices, following monetary tightening, nondurables decrease but consumer durables increase. Friction in lending between households can resolve the comovement problem if durable prices are sticky. However, if durable prices are flexible, friction in lending fails to generate joint decline. This paper resolves the co-movement problem by adding capital into a model with flexible durable prices and friction in lending. When capital is needed in production, monetary tightening reduces the relative price of durables which induces investment and decreases firms' real profits in the short run. Due to fewer profits remitted from firms, savers have a lower disposable income and cannot increase expenditures on consumer durables as much as otherwise. As a consequence, aggregate consumer durables decrease and there is a joint decline of nondurables and consumer durables.     

Entrepreneurs’ achieved success: developing a multi-faceted measure

Firm performance is typically measured via objective financial indicators. However, researchers increasingly acknowledge that entrepreneurs do not measure their success solely in financial terms but that a range of often subjective indicators matter to them. This article contributes to the debate on entrepreneurial performance by studying how entrepreneurs assess their achieved success. ‘Entrepreneurs’ achieved success’ was conceptualized as a multi-faceted construct that includes entrepreneurs’ self-reported achievement of firm performance, workplace relationships, personal fulfilment, community impact, and personal financial rewards. It was measured via the Subjective Entrepreneurial Success–Achievement Scale (SES-AS). Over the course of three studies (N?=?390) the factorial structure of ‘entrepreneurs’ achieved success’ was established and largely replicated in two cultures. Based on a nomological network, we documented relationships among ‘entrepreneurs’ achieved success’, quasi-objective indicators of firm performance, and entrepreneurs’ financial satisfaction, creativity, and health. Based on our research, we propose a new conceptual framework to study performance in the context of entrepreneurship. This framework acknowledges both the success criteria that entrepreneurs wish to achieve and those that they actually achieve, and extends our understanding of firm performance.

     

Analysis of regional productivity with capital as a quasi-fixed factor

Most existing studies of regional productivity growth do not incorporate the effect of variations in capacity utilization on changes in output. By failing to do so, their factor productivity estimates are biased. To overcome this shortcoming, we adjust multifactor productivity growth measure for changes in capacity utilization. Our technique recognizes that capital is a quasi-fixed factor which implies that capital in the short run can be either under- or over-utilized by a firm. Our results from 1974 to 1978 show that capacity adjusted multifactor productivity growth measure exceeds capacity unadjusted multifactor productivity growth measure for the nine census divisions. The bias in the capacity unadjusted measure of multifactor productivity growth is approximately 8 percent in East North Central and over 33 percent in Mountain. We find that the aggregate factor productivity growth is slowest in the traditional manufacturing belt (Middle Atlantic and East North Central divisions). The level of aggregate factor productivity in the manufacturing belt, however, is almost 33 percent higher than in regions in the south.     

Information technologies and entrepreneurship

This article shows how the increase of information availability due to new technologies positively affects aggregate entrepreneurship in national economies. We rely on an “occupational choice” model of managerial production, extended to include the managerial use of information, to explain variations in the number of entrepreneurs, and thus of firms, as measured by the aggregate new business creation data. We present evidence that supports such a theory of industrial organization dynamics for a sample of 78 economies over the period 2004–2012 using panel data instrumental variable regressions.     

Technovation and the informal investor

Technovation is a creative process in financial as well as technical terms. Inventors, entrepreneurs, and venture capital are the key ingredients in the technovation process. The key financial concepts include venture capital risk/reward trade-offs, discounted cash flow evaluation of income producing assets, and the risk-bearing role of entrepreneurs and venture investors. This paper discusses and illustrates the economic creativity of successful technovation, and explores the division of rewards between inventor/entrepreneurs and venture investors. Capital market gaps affecting the financing of emerging, technology-based ventures are identified. The paper concludes with a discussion of current research in-to the role of informal investors (essentially financially sophisticated individuals of means) as a source of risk capital for inventors and entrepreneurs.     

Growth and inequality: Dependence on the time path of productivity increases (and other structural changes)

This paper examines the significance of the time path of a given productivity increase on growth and inequality. Whereas the time path impacts only the transitional paths of aggregate quantities, it has both transitional and permanent consequences for wealth and income distribution. Hence, the growth-inequality tradeoff generated by a given discrete increase in productivity contrasts sharply with that obtained when the same productivity increase occurs gradually. The latter can generate a Kuznets-type relationship between inequality and per-capita income. Our results suggest that economies with similar aggregate structural characteristics may have different outcomes for income and wealth inequality, depending on the nature of the productivity growth path.     

The Coalition's Economic Strategy; Has it made a bad thing worse?

The source of the present recession in the UK and elsewhere was the world‐wide financial crisis that followed a generalised collapse in inter‐bank and bank lending to the private sector, which led to huge falls in spending and a collapse in output in most developed countries. By effectively ignoring this amplified credit effect, supply‐side explanations place their emphasis instead on changes to the pattern of productivity shocks, downgrades in risk premia or shifts in aggregate production functions. Our review of some high profile examples of supply‐side accounts suggests that the evidence is against them and a world‐wide fall in aggregate demand seems a more likely explanation. Nonetheless, the supply‐side view still appears to be the approach preferred by the Treasury suggesting, as it does, that present levels of slack in the economy are small. The Coalition's main response to the recession here has been fiscal consolidation, based on the claim that the jump in the fiscal deficit was not due to the world recession and was instead caused by Labour's profligate spending. Also, the Coalition's strategy treats the two problems; that of ensuring recovery and that of achieving a sustainable debt ratio in the longer term as if they were the same problem. Not only are these two claims wholly wrong, the risks they pose to the economic future of the country are very large and of long duration. It is already evident that the “cuts now” programme has retarded the recovery as it assumes, incorrectly, that the deficit can be reduced by making cuts to spending without these having adverse effects on economic growth. And its precipitate rush to cut Welfare and non‐investment Education budgets are visibly leading to worse, not better, efficiency outcomes in these key sectors, in spite of government claims to the contrary. A low wage, low productivity economy seems a highly likely outcome of the present policy over the medium to longer term.     

Productivity and Trade Orientation in UK Manufacturing*

We show that improvements in aggregate productivity in UK manufacturing during the first years after the implementation of the Euro, by the UK's main trading partners in Europe, are determined by both market share reallocation and within‐company productivity growth. Furthermore, we outline a structural methodology for estimating parameters of a production function linking the unobservable productivity to endogenous company‐level trade orientation, investment and exit decisions. This allows us to back out consistent and unbiased estimates of productivity dynamics by trade orientation of companies within four‐digit UK manufacturing industries using FAME data over the period 1994–2001. Our estimates of productivity dynamics indicate that improvements in aggregate productivity were mainly driven by market share reallocations away from inefficient and towards efficient exporting companies alongside productivity improvements within non‐exporting companies.