Tax tilting and politics: Some theory and evidence for Latin America

A government budget deficit can exist for at least two possible reasons: tax smoothing and/or tax tilting. Under tax-smoothing, deficits are temporary phenomena resulting from the decision not to vary the tax rate in response to fluctuations in government spending (as a share of output). This is done in order to minimize the distortionary cost of taxes. Tax tilting occurs whenever the government has an incentive to discount the losses to society from taxes at a higher rate than society discounts them; hence it delays taxes or advances spending introducing an upward trend in total government debt. This paper develops a model that implies that tax-tilting tends to increase with political risk. An increase in political risk, measured by the probability of losing power, increases the rate at which the government discounts the future, causing government policy to be relatively more myopic. Hence it delays taxes or advances spending and its deficit increases. Using data from a panel of 19 Latin-American countries for the period 1984–2009, the paper presents estimation results that strongly support the proposition that an increase in political risk increases the degree of tax-tilting.     

Dynamic elasticities of tax revenue: evidence from the Czech Republic

Tax revenue elasticities with respect to tax bases are key parameters for the modeling of public finances. Yet the existing studies estimating these elasticities for emerging countries disregard the effects of tax reforms on tax revenue, which renders their estimates inconsistent. We introduce a framework for estimating both short- and long-run tax revenue elasticities using quarterly data adjusted for the effects of reforms. Our results suggest that the long-run elasticities in the Czech Republic are 1.4 for wage tax, 0.9 for value added tax, 1.7 for profit tax and 1 for social security contributions. The adjustment process for value added tax and social security contributions is fast, but for the remaining two categories, it is important to distinguish between the short- and long-run elasticities: the initial response of revenue to changes in the bases is weak. In the case of wage tax it takes half a year for the elasticity to surpass unity.     

开征遗产税须消除的疑虑与制度设计

当前围绕我国是否应开征遗产税的问题,存在着截然不同的观点.开征遗产税具有重要的社会经济意义,并且我国目前已具备开征基本条件.构建符合中国国情的遗产税制度应成为下一步税制改革的一项重要内容.     

确立财产税在地方税中的主体地位初探

探讨财产税作为地方税主体税种的理论及现实原因,分析我国现行财产税的缺陷,有利于建立与完善我国财产税体系。     

On the timeliness of tax reform

This paper analyzes efficient government reactions to unanticipated tax avoidance. Quickly reforming tax laws to reduce the effectiveness of new tax avoidance techniques prevents widespread adoption, but indirectly encourages the rapid development of new avoidance methods if prior users are permitted to retain their tax benefits. Tax reforms that immediately prevent new avoidance mean that innovators need not fear imitation by competitors, and cannot rely on copying the innovations of others. Such an activist reform agenda diverts greater resources into tax avoidance activity, and might thereby lead to a faster rate of tax base erosion, than would a less reactive government strategy. Efficient government policy therefore entails either the retroactive elimination of tax savings, with possible associated costs, or else a deliberate pace of tax reform in response to taxpayer innovation.     

个人所得税税制模式:公平与效率的权衡

税制模式是一个涉及所得税公平与效率权衡问题的重要因素,对其的研究引起了学界和纳税人的广泛关注。然而,税制模式的改变不应该是一个建立于情绪化的公平偏好或公众舆论导向的产物,而应该是一个缜密的理论分析和客观的实践总结的结果。本文在分析各种税制模式在公平与效率方面的理论描述及其各国模式选择实践的基础上,得出了一个基本结论:即我国现行的特殊分类税制是符合现实税收环境的恰当税制模式。     

中国税收持续高速增长之谜

延续12年之久的中国税收收入持续高速增长,在步入“十一五”以后表现出更加强劲的态势,从而在宏观经济运行以及整个经济社会发展进程中激起了更大的波澜。本文由税收收入同现行税制的关联分析入手,在税收收入增长轨迹同现行税制变动轨迹的联系中,试图捕捉支撑税收收入持续高速增长的“特殊”因素。以此为基础,采用特殊视角,逐一聚焦由税收收入持续高速增长所引致的若干重大问题,给出种种政策判断,提出相关政策建议。     

Tax progressivity, income distribution and tax non-compliance

This article examines the determinants of tax non-compliance when we recognise the existence of an imperfectly competitive “tax advice” industry supplying schemes which help taxpayers reduce their tax liability. We apply a traditional industrial organisation framework to model the behaviour of this industry. This tells us that an important factor determining the equilibrium price and hence, the level of non-compliance, is the convexity of the demand schedule. We show that in this context, this convexity is affected by the distribution of pre-tax income, the progressivity of the tax-schedule and the way in which monitoring and penalties vary with income. It is shown that lower pre-tax income inequality as well as a less progressive tax code may cause more tax minimisation activities. Therefore, the frequently advocated policy of reducing the highest tax rate may fail as a policy directed at improving tax discipline. One way of offsetting the possible harm to tax compliance from a less progressive tax could be an adjustment of the penalty and monitoring functions.     

基于税制优化的结构性减税政策研究

结构性减税是本轮积极财政政策的重头戏,自2008年底以来,结构性减税政策在保增长、调结构与扩内需的反周期操作中一度扮演积极的角色。我国结构性减税政策的操作遵循宏观调控与税制优化两种不同的范式,宏观调控范式侧重总量均衡的短期相机抉择,税制优化范式注重结构调整的长期制度安排。后金融危机时代,基于宏观调控的结构性减税将日趋淡出,基于税制优化的结构性减税应坚持结构性减税与税制优化相结合,结构性减税与结构性增税相结合,结构性减税与配套改革相结合。     

企业所得税征管:问题与对策

我国企业所得税征管环节存在不少亟待解决的问题,如税源监控不到位,服务意识待提高;汇算清缴制度不规范;纳税评估流于形式等.因此,应对纳税人科学分类,加强日常监控;核实税基;优化服务以降低纳税成本;规范企业所得税征管环节的各项管理;强化纳税评估,提高信息化程度,为企业营造出公平的纳税环境.     

论税务管理能力与有效税制改革

衡量一项税制或税制改革是否有效,其最综合性的标志是:税制执行后,其理论税负与实际税负是否一致。而这一状况的实现,与一国税制的设计是否与其税务管理能力相匹配是密切相关的。各国税制改革的实践表明,税务管理能力本身就应成为一国有效税制改革的中心。我国当前不尽如人意的税制执行结果,以及税制与税务管理确立背景的诸多变化,都迫切要求我们进一步提高税务管理能力,以增强税制及税制改革的有效性。     

The determinants of tax morale in comparative perspective: Evidence from European countries

Applying a multilevel model, we argue that tax morale is a function of individual- and contextual-level variables. Evidence presented in this article, based on the 2004–2005 European Social Survey and information on institutional settings, shows that tax morale in European countries varies systematically with socio-demographic characteristics, personal financial experiences, political attitudes, on the one hand, and regional GDP and tax arrangements on the other hand. Moreover, cross-national differences in tax morale are also related to ethnic and linguistic fractionalizations.     

The effects of small sample bias in Threshold Autoregressive models

This paper investigates Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models that contain a limited number of observations in some regimes. Simulations show that within the context of the real exchange rate literature, parameter estimates exhibit significant small sample bias even with long time series data. These distortions create substantial power losses in attempting to identify values of coefficients from data.     

个人所得税收入能力与税收流失的实证研究——以山东省为例

本文以山东省为例,把个人所得税收入能力分为现实收入能力和潜在收入能力两个层面。山东省个人所得税现实收入能力较全国平均水平为低,更远远低于国际水平。而从潜在收入能力来看,山东省个人所得税潜在收入能力巨大,但转化能力不足,税收流失率从2000年的37.75%增加到2007年的58.70%。究其根源,信息不对称、征管权与收入归属权不匹配、纳税人遵从率低和税制的低效等是造成这一现象的主要原因。     

日本研发税制改革及其对我国的启示

实践证明,税收激励政策是政府支持技术研发的重要手段,对研发活动具有重大影响。在当前全球金融危机形势下,如何运用好税收激励政策,是政府支持企业进行积极的产业结构调整,使经济尽快走出“低谷”的一个重要方面,也是在促进经济平稳较快发展中发挥科技支撑作用的一个重要环节。本文将通过分析和总结日本研发税制改革过程,提出进一步改进和完善我国现行研发税收政策的思路。     

会计制度与税收法规的协作

本文在评介会计制度与税收法规的协作历程的基础上 ,讨论两者在税收征收管理的信息需求方面加强协作的必要性 ,并运用模拟法以“租赁或借款安排”为例实验分析了在税收监管中实现有效合作的可能措施。文章认为 ,应当大力提高国内税务筹划的研究水平 ,以推动税制和税法的进一步完善 ;在制度层面上 ,应当实现会计信息对税务征管实务的支持作用 ,从而加强反避税的工作力度。     

Nonlinearities and the Business Cycle in Spanish Imports: A Smooth Transition Regression Approach

Traditional specifications about imports have their foundations on the symmetry of the cycle. However, the wide debate about the asymmetric character of the cycle has aroused much interest in nonlinear dynamics due to the cyclical state of the economy. Economic theory maintains a linear long-run relationship linking imports, GDP and relative prices. This paper analyzes whether short-run deviations from this equilibrium display any kind of nonlinear behavior related to the state of the cycle. Nonlinearities will be captured by an error correction smooth transition regression (STR). Empirical evidence, focused on Spanish imports of goods, supports that short-run deviations of this variable from its linear equilibrium state display a nonlinear behavior. As it is demonstrated, this evolution is caused by the cyclical state of the economy. A previous version of this article has been presented at the 65th International Atlantic Economic Conference (Warsaw, Poland, April 9–12, 2008). The authors would like to thank the conference participants and an anonymous referee for their comments.     

Nonlinear models with panel data

Panel data play an important role in empirical economics. With panel data one can answer questions about microeconomic dynamic behavior that could not be answered with cross sectional data. Panel data techniques are also useful for analyzing cross sectional data with grouping. This paper discusses some issues related to specification and estimation of nonlinear models using panel data.JEL Classification: C230The research behind this paper was supported by the National Science Foundation, the Gregory C. Chow Econometric Research Program at Princeton University, and Danish National Research Foundation (through CAM at the University of Copenhagen). The author thanks Ekaterini Kyriazidou, Hong Li, Marina Sallustro, and the editors for helpful suggestions.     

当前世界减税趋势与中国税收政策取向

进入新世纪 ,随着经济全球化的加快发展 ,各国纷纷推出了减税计划和方案 ,形成了新一轮世界性的减税趋势和浪潮。我国自 1 998年以来 ,税收收入连年大幅增长 ,这对增强国家宏观调控能力 ,促进经济形势的好转发挥了重要作用。但是 ,税收长期超常增长 ,加重了企业和居民的负担 ,对刺激投资和消费、扩大内需、提高企业国际竞争力不利。在当前国内外形势下 ,从有利于经济持续发展来看 ,中国应采取完善税制、适度减税政策。