Recursive equilibrium in stochastic OLG economies: Incomplete markets

We prove generic existence of recursive equilibrium for overlapping generations economies with uncertainty and incomplete financial markets. Generic here means in a residual set of utilities and endowments. The result holds provided there is sufficient intragenerational household heterogeneity, and transition probabilities and the asset payoff matrix satisfy mild regularity conditions. The paper also provides a new methodological technique to establish comparative statics, or perturbation, properties in such environments.     

Cyclical equilibria in multi-sector productive economies: The role of substitution and factor intensity

The paper examines the existence of cyclical perfect foresight equilibria in a two-sector overlapping generations economy with production in which both goods enter consumption. Conditions for the existence of two types of cyclical equilibra are obtained in terms of elasticities of substitution in production and consumption, factor shares in production, and expenditure shares in consumption. The role of substitution possibilities and factor intensities is highlighted. It is shown that factor intensity assumptions are not enough to rule out cyclical equilibria and that limit cycles may exist for substantial amounts of substitution possibilities in production; what matters is the relative sizes of the consumption and production elasticities. The results are illustrated using CES functions. A dynamical simulation of an economy which exhibits a Hopf cycle is presented.     

Sharing risk within and across countries: the role of labor market institutions

This paper studies the effect of labor market institutions on within- and cross-country risk sharing, using a model of international trade in risky assets modified to include a subset of agents, labor-owners who do not access financial markets, and employment security provisions. Labor market, institutions, by promoting within-country risk-shifting arrangements between agents with or without, access to financial markets, reduce the fluctuations of non-tradable labor incomes and amplify the, fluctuations of capital incomes. Capital flows become more volatile across countries, and if the, configuration of labor markets differs across countries, capital-owners bear the burden of systematic, undiversifiable world aggregate uncertainty.     

Horse race of weekly idiosyncratic momentum strategies with respect to various risk metrics: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This paper focuses on the horse race of weekly idiosyncratic momentum (IMOM) with respect to various idiosyncratic risk metrics. Using the A-share individual stocks in the Chinese market from January 1997 to December 2017, we first evaluate the performance of the weekly momentum based on raw returns and idiosyncratic returns, respectively. After that the univariate portfolio analysis is conducted to investigate the return predictability with respect to various idiosyncratic risk metrics. Further, we perform a comparative study on the performance of the IMOM portfolios with respect to various risk metrics. At last, we explore the possible explanations to IMOM as well as risk-based IMOM portfolios. We find that 1) there are prevailing contrarian effect and IMOM effect for the whole sample; 2) the negative relations exist between most of the idiosyncratic risk metrics and the cross-sectional stock returns, and better performance is linked to idiosyncratic volatility (IVol) and maximum drawdowns (IMDs); 3) additionally, the IVol-based and IMD-based IMOM portfolios exhibit better explanatory power to the IMOM portfolios with respect to other risk metrics; 4) finally, higher profitability of IMOM as well as IVol-based and IMD-based IMOM portfolios is found to be related to upside market states, high levels of liquidity and high levels of investor sentiment.     

Local determinacy of prices in an overlapping generations model with continuous trading

We characterize the determinacy properties of the intertemporal equilibrium for a continuous-time, pure-exchange, overlapping generations economy with logarithmic preferences. Using recent advances in the theory of functional differential equations, we show that the equilibrium is locally unique and that prices converge to a balanced growth path and are determined.     

Health insurance reform: The impact of a Medicare buy-in

The steady-state general equilibrium and welfare consequences of a Medicare buy-in program, optional for those aged 55–64, is evaluated in a calibrated life-cycle economy with incomplete markets. Incomplete markets and adverse selection create a potential welfare improving role for health insurance reform. We find that adverse selection eliminates any market for a Medicare buy-in if it is offered as an unsubsidized option to individual private health insurance. The subsidy needed to bring the number of uninsured to less than 5 percent of the target population could be financed by an increase in the labor income tax rate of just 0.03–0.18 percent depending on how the program is implemented.     

Endogenous incompleteness of financial markets: The role of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion

Incompleteness of financial markets has been widely questioned in the literature, but traditional research has been mainly focused on the role of transaction costs and asymmetric information in determining such incompleteness. This paper, instead, focuses on agents’ preferences, showing that the introduction of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion may induce investors to restrict their trading to a simpler set of assets, relative to which they are less likely to make errors.     

On the optimal size of Social Security in the presence of a stock market

The paper develops a stylized overlapping generations economy with random production and a stock market. The impact of a Social Security system on production, asset markets, and consumer welfare is analyzed. It is shown that any reduction in the contribution rate fosters capital accumulation and increases asset prices, wages, and production output. Different welfare criteria are applied to determine the optimal size of Social Security. It is shown that there exists a unique contribution rate which is long-run optimal, socially optimal, and time-consistent in the sense that no generation has an incentive to change it.     

The political economy of environmental and social security policies: the role of environmental lobbying

Social security provides retirement benefits to the old at the expense of the working young, while environmental investment benefits the future of the young at the expense of the old. This paper presents a model incorporating this intergenerational conflict on public spending and considers the political determination of environmental investment and social security by focusing on the Markovian political equilibria. It is shown that (1) the political equilibria are generally inefficient, and (2) the introduction of environmental lobbying into politics may improve environmental quality but degrade lifetime utility in the long run.      

Export restraints in a model of trade with capital accumulation

This paper examines the impact of voluntary export restraints (VERs) in an international duopoly modeled as a differential game. With a Ramsey capital accumulation dynamics, the game admits multiple steady states, and a VER cannot be ‘voluntarily’ employed by the foreign firm in case of Cournot behavior in demand substitutes. Hence, the dynamic framework confirms the results of the VERs literature with static interaction in output levels. In the case of price behavior, the adoption of an export restraint may increase the profits of both firms if products are substitutes and the steady state is ‘market-driven’. However, contrary to the acquired wisdom based upon the static approach, the dynamic analysis also admits an equilibrium outcome, identified by the Ramsey golden rule, where the incentive to adopt a VER is ruled out, irrespective of whether firms are quantity- or price-setters.     

Optimal taxation and intergovernmental transfer in a dynamic model with multiple levels of government

In this paper, we study the optimal choices of the federal income tax, federal transfers, and local taxes in a dynamic model of capital accumulation and with explicit game structures among multiple private agents, multiple local governments, and the federal government. In general, the optimal local property tax is zero if the local property tax is constrained to be nonnegative, whereas the optimal local consumption tax is always positive. When the local consumption tax is chosen optimally, the federal income tax can be either positive or negative. For most reasonable parameter values, our numerical calculations have shown that with a positive local consumption tax there exists a reverse transfer from local governments to the federal government.     

The role of asset testing in public health insurance reform

Starting slowly with the 1996 Welfare Reform Act and culminating in the 2010 Affordable Care Act, means-tested public health insurance eligibility expanded to include adults in low-income families regardless of their asset holdings. This paper quantifies the effects of these eligibility expansions within the context of the 2010 Affordable Care Act. I construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with indivisible labor supply expanded to include an endogenous household choice of health insurance coverage and calibrate it to U.S. data. I establish that changes in the distribution of labor and welfare associated with removal of asset testing are driven by exit of high productivity and high wealth households from the labor market. I then expand my analysis to the 2010 Affordable Care Act to demonstrate that removal of asset testing is critical to the obtained results even when combined with other provisions of the Act. Finally, I find that a simple asset test for eligibility of health insurance transfers undoes the distortion to the household labor supply decision among high productivity types. These results are robust to the introduction of employer premium contributions, an independent health insurance market, and idiosyncratic shocks to eligibility for employment-based health insurance.     

The role of MNCs in balancing the human capital 'books' between African and developed countries

The economic imbalance that exists between Western developed economies and African economies has resulted in retardation of human capital development in the African countries. The foreign direct investments that have freely flowed into Western economies have been the stimulus for the creation of jobs and the resulting educational infrastructure to generate qualified employees. Without this increase in human capital stock (i.e. in African countries) the ability of these economies to compete in the global, high tech, information economy of the twenty-first century is severely constrained. The paper examines the development of a human capital encompassing societal, organizational, and individual levels that can be stimulated by multinational organizations. The resulting positive impact on human capital in turn supports the growth not only of the African countries but also of the multinationals doing business in Africa.     

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and capital mobility: The role of the recent financial crisis

The Feldstein-Horioka (FH) puzzle has long been debated as it relates to the important topics of capital mobility and how to determine levels of investment. Adopting a recursive approach and panel techniques, this paper explores the impacts of the recent financial crisis on the validity of the puzzle. The OECD’s saving-investment correlation dropped to a record low just before the 2008 crisis began, reflecting the perceived ‘end’ of the FH puzzle in some studies. But since the onset of the crisis, our results indicate that this correlation has increased, suggesting the puzzle’s return. The puzzle for net capital-importing and net capital-exporting countries differs, with the relationship being more significant for the exporters compared to the importers, reflecting the asymmetry in terms of the degree of shocks across countries.     

Cross-sectional earnings risk and occupational sorting: The role of risk attitudes

This paper investigates to what extent individuals' risk preferences are correlated with the cross-sectional earnings risk of their occupation. We exploit data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, which contains a direct survey question about willingness to take risks that has been shown to be a behaviorally valid measure of risk aversion. As a measure of earnings risk, we use the cross-sectional variation in earnings that is left unexplained by human capital variables in Mincerian wage regressions. Our evidence shows that individuals with low willingness to take risks are more likely to work in occupations with low earnings risk. This pattern is found regardless of the level of occupation categories, region, gender and labor market experience.     

Prices,debt and market structure in an agent-based model of the financial market

We develop an agent-based model in which heterogeneous and boundedly rational agents interact by trading a risky asset at an endogenously set price. Agents are endowed with balance sheets comprising the risky asset as well as cash on the asset side and equity capital as well as debt on the liabilities side. A number of findings emerge when simulating the model: we find that the empirically observable log-normal distribution of bank balance sheet size naturally emerges and that higher levels of leverage lead to a greater inequality among agents. Furthermore, greater leverage increases the frequency of bankruptcies and systemic events. Credit frictions, which we define as the stickiness of debt adjustments, are able to explain a key difference in the relation between leverage and assets observed for different bank types. Lowering credit frictions leads to an increasingly procyclical behavior of leverage, which is typical for investment banks. Nevertheless, the impact of credit frictions on the fragility of the model financial system is complex. Lower frictions do increase the stability of the system most of the time, while systemic events become more probable. In particular, we observe an increasing frequency of severe liquidity crises that can lead to the collapse of the entire model financial system.     

The role of human capital philosophy in promoting firm innovativeness and performance: test of a causal model

In the present study, we developed and tested a causal model of the relationships between firm strategy, industry environment, human capital philosophy, innovativeness, and firm performance. Our results indicate that a differentiation-oriented strategy influences the relative use of an empowerment-oriented human capital philosophy of the firm, moderated by a firm's industry environment. Moreover, firms' human capital philosophies moderated the relationship between strategy and firm innovativeness. We also found support for the proposition that innovativeness mediated the relationship between human capital philosophy and firm performance. In addition, results also indicate that industry dynamism influences new product sales directly and industry survival difficulty moderates the relationship between firm strategy and new product sales. Survival difficulty also had a negative effect on firm profit. Overall, we found support for the mediating roles of human capital philosophy and innovativeness in the relationships between firm strategy, industry environment and firm performance. Implications are discussed.     

Product co-development in an emerging market: The role of buyer-supplier compatibility and institutional environment

In emerging markets, supply chains increasingly serve as critical value chains through which ideas, practices and knowledge flow to and from suppliers and buyers. Drawing on buyer-supplier collaboration literature and organizational learning theory, we examine the antecedents and underlying mechanisms of product co-development. Due to emerging markets' unique institutional environments, we further investigate how government intervention and guanxi importance moderate supplier-buyer collaborative outcomes. Dyadic data from 323 supplier-buyer pairs in China largely support our theoretical framework. Partners' knowledge commonality has a curvilinear (inverted U-shaped) relationship to product co-development, whereas goal compatibility has a positive impact on product co-development. Mutual learning partially mediates the main effect. Furthermore, government intervention weakens the positive effect of mutual learning on product co-development whereas guanxi importance strengthens this relationship. This research provides fresh theoretical and managerial implications to supply chain collaboration in emerging markets.     

HRM and performance—The role of talent management as a transmission mechanism in an emerging market context

This paper investigates the link between HRM practices, talent management (TM), and firm performance and examines the role of HRM/business strategy alignment in an emerging market context. Through survey evidence gathered from 198 respondent firms, this study shows that TM, when focused on a series of practices aimed at developing workforce networks and social capital, is a key transmission mechanism mediating the relationship between HRM and firm performance. HRM strategy and business strategy alignment increases these performance impacts but is not an essential component in the HRM‐TM‐performance link.