Long-term interest rates,risk premia and unconventional monetary policy

We study two kinds of unconventional monetary policies: announcements about the future path of the short-term rate and long-term nominal interest rates as operating instruments of monetary policy. We do so in a model where the risk premium on long-term debt is, in part, endogenously determined. We find that both policies are consistent with unique equilibria, that, at the zero lower bound, announcements about the future path of the short-term rate can lower long-term interest rates through their impact both on expectations and on the risk premium and that long-term interest rate rules perform as well as, and at times better than, conventional Taylor rules. With simulations, we show that long-term interest rate rules generate sensible dynamics both when in operation and when expected to be applied.     

Input–output interactions and optimal monetary policy

This paper deals with the implications of factor demand linkages for monetary policy design in a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. Part of the output of each sector serves as a production input in both sectors, in accordance with a realistic input–output structure. Strategic complementarities induced by factor demand linkages significantly alter the transmission of shocks and amplify the loss of social welfare under optimal monetary policy, compared to what is observed in standard two-sector models. The distinction between value added and gross output that naturally arises in this context is of key importance to explore the welfare properties of the model economy. A flexible inflation targeting regime is close to optimal only if the central bank balances inflation and value added variability. Otherwise, targeting gross output variability entails a substantial increase in the loss of welfare.     

Optimal monetary policy under incomplete markets and aggregate uncertainty: A long-run perspective

This paper examines the role of monetary policy in an environment with aggregate risk and incomplete markets. In a two-period overlapping-generations model with aggregate uncertainty, optimal monetary policy attains the ex-ante Pareto optimal allocation. This policy aims to stabilize the savings rate in the economy by changing real returns of nominal bonds via variation in expected inflation. Optimal expected inflation is procylical and on average higher than without uncertainty. Simple inflation targeting rules closely approximate the optimal monetary policy.     

The role of liquid government bonds in the great transformation of American monetary policy

A fundamental shift in monetary policy occurred around 1980: the Fed went from a “passive” policy to an “active” policy. We study a model in which government bonds provide transactions services. We present two calibrations of our model, using pre- and post-1980 data. We show that estimates of pre- and post-1980 policy rules all lie within our determinacy regions. But, the pre-1980 policy was a very bad monetary policy, even if it avoided sunspot equilibria. Model simulations suggest that household welfare would have increased by 3.3 percent of permanent consumption in this period under an active policy.     

Fiscal and monetary interdependence

Where classical economics integrates the quantity theory of money with the concept of Ricardian equivalence, the tendency of recent macroeconomic presentations is to focus either upon money and inflation or upon taxation and debt. That neglect of classical monetary–fiscal integration is surprising, given an initiative by the International Monetary Fund that set credit, money, and fiscal policy within a single structure. This article places those ‘credit counterparts of broad money’ in the context of the Great Depression and the recent global financial crisis. The upshot is a set of conclusions: that, to counter the prospect of deflation, quantitative easing is a weak policy response; that fiscal deficits are better; and that cuts in taxation are preferable to increased government spending.     

International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries

We estimate a global vector autoregression model to examine the effects of euro area and US monetary policy stances, together with the effect of euro area consumer prices, on economic activity and prices in non-euro EU countries using monthly data from 2001-2016. Along with some standard macroeconomic variables, our model contains measures of the shadow monetary policy rate to address the zero lower bound and the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. We find that these monetary shocks have the expected qualitative effects but their magnitude differs across countries, with southeastern EU economies being less affected than their peers in Central Europe. Euro area monetary shocks have a greater effect than those that emanate from the US. We also find certain evidence that the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures are weaker than those of conventional measures. The spillovers of euro area price shocks to non-euro EU countries are limited, suggesting that the law of one price materializes slowly.     

The impact of monetary policy on stock market bubbles and trading behavior: Evidence from the lab

We investigate the effect of monetary policy on stock market bubbles and trading behavior in experimental asset markets. We introduce the possibility of investing in interest bearing bonds to the widely used laboratory asset market design of Smith et al. (1988). Treatment groups face a variable interest rate policy which depends on asset prices, while control groups are subjected to a constant interest rate. We observe a strong impact of our interest rate policy on liquidity in the stock market but only a small impact on bubbles. However, we find that announcing the possibility of reserve requirements significantly reduces bubbles.     

The UK and the Eurozone: Sovereign Debt Management and Monetary Policy

Events in the wake of the ‘credit crunch’ can be understood only against institutional structures within which interdependent monetary and fiscal policy are administered. In the Eurozone, the attempt to keep a central monetary authority (together with its associated national central banks) independent from 17 diverse fiscal authorities was flawed. When sovereign debt approaches unmanageable levels, the Maastricht Treaty presents austerity as the single option. In the UK, the electorate has an opportunity to choose between monetary financing (inflation) and fiscal consolidation (austerity). Policy choices within the Eurozone and the UK are set against Keynes's focus on unemployment and more recent concerns to retain (or restore) price and/or financial stability.     

Can central banks run out of ammunition? The role of the money‐equities‐interaction channel in monetary policy

Many authorities claim that central banks ‘have run out of ammunition’, either because the central bank rate has dropped close to the zero lower bound or because of Keynes's liquidity trap. I argue first, that indefinitely large increases in the quantity of money remain possible even with the central bank rate close to zero, and, second, that increases in the quantity of money raise all asset prices, including the prices of quoted equities, not just bond prices. Bonds are an unimportant asset class in modern capitalist economies, relative to corporate equity and real estate. Meanwhile increases in equity prices always boost aggregate demand and output.     

How to draft ‘good’ minutes of monetary policy decisions

The minutes of monetary policy decisions at central banks vary substantially. A common norm does not exist. To ensure accountability and guide policy expectations, the minutes should satisfy some basic requirements. In search of criteria for ‘good’ minutes, it is relevant to look at how supreme courts write their decisions. Four criteria for ‘good’ minutes are proposed. The minutes of six central banks are assessed against the proposed criteria. In spite of the substantial variation in format, their minutes largely satisfy the criteria. The central banks' minutes seem to reflect their individual communication histories. The central banks could learn from each other, but also from the supreme courts, especially in terms of how they organise the writing of the minority view.     

Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis

This study compares a central bank’s leaning against the wind approach with a mix of monetary and macroprudential policies under parameter uncertainty in an estimated DSGE model with two financial frictions. We show that uncertainty of the economic environment is an essential constituent in properly designing macroprudential policy. Although coordination between monetary and macroprudential policies minimizes the policymakers’ Bayesian risk, coordination and non-coordination risks threaten the goals of both authorities. The former describes the situation where the authorities partly resign from implementing the monetary policy objectives to stabilize macroprudential risk. The latter is when conducting a non-coordinated macroprudential policy induces higher total Bayesian risk than when only the central bank minimizes the expected total welfare loss. The robust Bayesian macroeconomic rules show that when financial shocks shrink the banks’ or entrepreneurial net worth, a contractionary macroprudential policy should be combined with an expansionary monetary policy. However, if capital adequacy ratio or risk shocks strike the economy, such a conflict in macroeconomics policy instruments disappears, thus synchronizing both policies.     

Assessing the implementation of sustainable public procurement using quantitative text-analysis tools: A large-scale analysis of Belgian public procurement notices

Public organizations are using sustainable public procurement (SPP) as a policy tool to address societal and environmental issues. Having a policy on SPP however does not guarantee implementation. Several barriers have for example been identified that prevent public procurers from implementing SPP in their procurement projects, such as financial constraints, lack of knowledge or motivation. The question therefore arises how much SPP public organizations actually implement in their procurement projects. However, existing studies often focus on the environmental part of SPP and often rely on using interviews or surveys to assess the perceived degree of SPP (which have been accused of being subject to social desirability bias and low response rates). Little is therefore known about what SPP is in practice, and how frequently it is implemented. In this study, we therefore provide a detailed operationalization of SPP that encompasses the full concept. We subsequently assess the implementation of SPP in practice using text mining techniques to analyse over 140.000 Belgian public procurement notices that were published between 2011 and 2016. The research shows that in more than 70% of the notices (with an annex) SPP is implemented, but there appears to be a downward trend. It seems that SPP is implemented less over time, rather than more. Environmentally friendly procurement was, relative to other types of SPP, prevalent over time and across regions. For SPP to live up to its potential there are thus still barriers to be overcome.     

The Road Not Taken: A Comparison Between the Hard ECU and the Euro

In the context of the Eurozone crisis this paper re‐examines the Hard ECU using the concepts of the macroeconomic trilemma and the political trilemma. We find that the Hard ECU would have been less economically and politically damaging than the euro. We conclude that it was a superior approach to monetary union.     

Government involvement in entrepreneurship and new business creation in Australia: A quantitative analysis of public perceptions and opinions

In order to determine the range of Australian perceptions on new venture creation at the end of the decade of the 1980s, and in particular attitudes towards government involvement in fostering entrepreneurship, a major quantitative study was conducted. The survey involved more than 1500 Australians in face-to-face interviews (300 in each mainland capital city) chosen on a random basis.

An analysis of the data provides an assessment of the Australian general public&s perceptions in three key areas: their understanding of the word ‘entrepreneur’ their rating of importance of new venture creation; their belief in government involvement in fostering new venture creation.

It is believed to be the first study attempting to quantify an entire nation&s perceptions in three areas vital to creators of national economic and industry policies.