The impact of credit supply shocks and a new Financial Conditions Index based on a FAVAR approach

This paper investigates the impact of credit supply shocks on the macroeconomy and estimates a new financial conditions index. We calculated two credit supply factors using a time-varying parameter FAVAR model. The first factor is identified as the willingness to lend, while the second factor is the lending capacity. The impact of these two types of shocks and their changes over time is examined using Hungarian data. The two types of lending shocks affect macro variables rather differently: a positive lending capacity shock (in a banking system mostly owned by non-residents) influences GDP through a decrease in country risk and the easing of monetary policy, while willingness to lend primarily increases lending activity. The two financial shocks also differ in terms of their evolution over time: deviations from the average in the impact of a willingness to lend shock usually occur for short periods of time and are of a small degree between the various quarters. However, in the case of lending capacity, certain trends can be observed: before the crisis, the stability of the banking system played an increasing role in country risk, whereas after 2008 it appears that monetary policy paid increasing attention to financial stability. Finally, a new type of financial conditions index is quantified based on our estimates, which measures the impact of the banking system’s lending activity on GDP growth.     

Schumpeter and new technology based firms: Towards a framework for how NTBFs cause creative destruction

Although Schumpeter’s “creative destruction” has become something of a buzzword, the theoretical underpinnings of his theory are largely missing from the recent literature on technological change. This paper explores the link between technological change and creative destruction, with particular attention being paid to the role of new technology-based firms in bringing this about. Recurring themes in the technological change literature are examined. These show that the phenomenon of dominant firms failing due to the introduction of a new (disruptive) technology is creative destruction in action. NTBFs are the most common introducers of disruptive technologies and a leading driver of creative destruction.