我国贸易多样性的收益分析和影响因素——基于内延边际与外延边际的考察

本研究以我国贸易多样性为研究对象,通过多国模型阐述了贸易自由化可增加多样性贸易福利;基于Feenstra(1994)的贸易多样性指数,本文给出了1995~2007年我国贸易扩张的内延边际和外延边际,2001年之后贸易的外延边际(多样性扩张)带来的贸易收益十分显著。实证结果表明,人均收入的跨国差异不利于贸易多样性的扩张,关税和非关税壁垒同样成为我国进口多样性的阻力因素,而中小企业群体规模对贸易多样性扩张的贡献作用显著。     

The effect of exchange rate volatility on U.S. bilateral trade with Africa: A symmetric and asymmetric analysis

The impact of exchange rate volatility on U.S. trade with the world or on U.S. trade with major partners has been assessed by many researchers, but none have considered the case of U.S. trade with African nations. We fill this gap by assessing the symmetric and asymmetric impact of the real bilateral exchange rate volatility between the U.S. dollar and each African partner’s currency on the U.S. trade flows with each of the 20 partners from Africa. We found asymmetric short-run effects of exchange rate volatility on almost all U.S. exports to and imports from each of the 20 countries. In addition, significant long-run asymmetric effects were discovered in the case of U.S. exports to 15 countries and U.S. imports from 12 countries. Our findings are partner-specific.     

Impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between U.S. and China: is there a third country effect

Impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows still continues to dominate the literature. Most previous research has used aggregate trade data between one country and the rest of the world or between two countries at a bilateral level. A recent study, however, considered the trade between the U.S. and China at the commodity level, but excluded the ??third-country?? effect in its analysis. In this paper, we consider the commodity trade between the U.S. and China one more time and investigate whether volatility of the real U.S. dollar-Canadian dollar has any implication on the trade flows between the U.S. and China. The answer happens to be in the affirmative, though a more significant third-country effect is found in the short run as compared to the long run.     

New evidence on the link between exchange rates and asset-seeking acquisition FDI

Blonigen (1997) proposes a link between exchange rates and foreign direct investment (FDI) motivated to acquire complementary assets (i.e., asset-seeking acquisition FDI). However, previous studies have only examined this hypothesis with acquisition FDI data from a country source that are mostly U.S. inbound. In this paper I examine the hypothesis using the acquisition FDI data from multiple country sources that are inbound for various countries. I find evidence in support of this hypothesis for U.S. inbound acquisition FDI from multiple country sources, but not inbound acquisition FDI for other various developed countries.     

The exchange value of the dollar and the U.S. trade balance: An empirical investigation based on cointegradon and Granger causality tests

This article performs tests of Granger causality in the relationships between the nominal ad real exchange rates of the dollar and the U.S. trade balance as well as its price and quantity components over the period 1973:IIQ–1989:IIIQ. Our results suggest: (i) weak statistical evidence of unidirectional causality running from the nominal exchange rate to import prices and nominal trade balance (ii) no statistical support for the proposition that the real exchange rate simply “accommodates” changes in the real trade balance, and (iii) strong (no) causal links between the nominal and real exchange rates and export (import) volume. We tentatively conclude that movements in the exchange rate have a rather limited effect on the trade balance and that this effect is more likely to materialize on the export side of the trade balance.     

Exchange rate volatility and Spanish-American commodity trade flows

A number of recent studies have tested the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows, particularly for individual commodities, for various country pairs. These have found that risk can increase as well as decrease trade, but that oftentimes industries are not affected. This study examines trade between the United States and Spain over the period from 1962 to 2009, for 131 U.S. export industries and 88 import industries. We find that exchange rate volatility has short-run and long-run effects in only a fraction of the cases, but that exports respond more to increased uncertainty than imports do. In all, only 35 of the 74 U.S. export industries are affected (11 positive, 24 negative), whilst only three out of 37 import industries have positive coefficients and 11 have negative ones. We find no evidence that durable or nondurable goods are more likely to respond to volatility, whilst small industries or specialized goods might show more of a positive response.     

Financing constraints and ODI margins: Evidence from China

Using a novel firm-level dataset on China, this paper examines the effects of financing constraints on enterprises’ outward direct investment (ODI) from the perspective of binary margins of ODI. The main findings of the paper are threefold. First, financing constraints show a negative effect on enterprises’ ODI for both the intensive and extensive margins, with a more significant effect on the extensive margin. Second, the negative effect is mostly significant in the energy industry, while it is not significant in non-energy industries. Finally, financing constraints show a negative effect on state-owned enterprises for both margins, while the effect is less significant for non-state-owned enterprises. The findings in the paper have policy implications for understanding and promoting ODI in emerging economies.     

美国金融危机对我国贸易顺差的影响及对策研究

美国金融危机影响已由虚拟经济扩散到实体经济，由发达经济体扩展到新兴经济体。持续多年的贸易顺差是当前我国经济增长的主要推动力，为我国积累了巨额的外汇储备。然而，金融危机导致我国贸易顺差额大幅收窄，FDI连续十个月同比负增长及经济增速放缓。为了应对美国金融危机给我国对外贸易、经济带来的消极影响。为此，建议从加大创新力度，提高出口企业产品附加值，转变出口市场结构等三方面来寻求应对危机的有效办法。     

Trump’s New Trade Tariffs: A Response to Voters’ Demands?

President Trump has dramatically changed U.S. trade policy through the adoption of steep tariffs. We argue in this article that even when there are significant geopolitical reasons, Trump’s actions on trade are a response to internal demands resonant with a long history of protectionism. We provide clear evidence of the impacts of social demographics on U.S. trade policy and show that individuals from capital-intense regions with high educational attainment tend to support protectionism.     

中国普惠金融发展对贸易边际及结构的影响

研究目标：考察中国普惠金融发展对贸易边际及结构的影响。研究方法：首先从理论上探讨了普惠金融发展对于贸易的影响,提出普惠制金融发展不仅会从集约边际和扩展边际两个方面影响贸易的规模,而且会因为行业间外部融资依赖度的差异而影响贸易的结构。然后,运用我国10个省份15个制造行业2004~2013年的数据,检验了普惠金融发展对于地区出口的影响。研究发现：普惠金融的发展对于出口总体上具有促进作用,不过,普惠金融对于出口的影响在行业上具有显著的异质性,总体来说,在外部融资依赖度较高的行业,普惠金融发展对于出口呈现出较多正向影响,而在外部融资依赖度较低的行业,普惠金融发展对于出口越多呈现出较多负向影响。研究创新：理论上研究了普惠金融发展与国际贸易边际的关系,并运用中国的数据进行了验证。研究价值：对于促进中国普惠金融体系的构建和贸易转型升级具有一定的政策启示。     

The future of the dollar–euro exchange rate

Monetary unification in Europe is expected to produce a major new international currency, which may compete with the U.S. dollar as the currency of choice in foreign exchange transactions, financial asset markets and central bank reserves. This study considers two important issues regarding the euro: its global role as medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value and its position relative to the U.S. dollar. Among the main considerations are differences in cyclical behavior, inflation differentials, trade patterns and capital flows, and risk-return assessments. External diversification of private portfolios and of central banks’ reserve holdings will play a key role in determining the euro’s exchange rate. Overall, despite its rough start, we argue that the euro may emerge as a challenger to the U.S. dollar.     

Obstfeld and Rogoff׳s international macro puzzles: a quantitative assessment

Obstfeld and Rogoff (2001) propose that trade frictions lie behind key puzzles in international macroeconomics. We take a dynamic multicountry model of international trade, production, and investment to data from 19 countries to assess this proposition quantitatively. Using the framework developed in Eaton et al. (2016), we revisit the puzzles in a counterfactual world without trade frictions in manufactures. Removing these trade frictions goes a long way toward resolving a number of puzzles. The dependence of domestic investment on domestic saving falls by half or disappears entirely, mitigating the Feldstein and Horioka (1980) puzzle. Changes in nominal GDPs in U.S. dollars become less variable across countries and line up with changes in real GDPs as much as with real exchange rates, mitigating the exchange rate disconnect puzzle. Less dramatically, changes in consumption become more correlated across countries, mitigating the consumption correlations puzzle and changes in real exchange rates become less variable across countries, mitigating the relative purchasing power parity puzzle.     

U.S.-German commodity trade and the J-curve: New evidence from asymmetry analysis

Since the introduction of the nonlinear ARDL approach and asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modeling, old relations are receiving renewed attention, and the link between the trade balance and the exchange rate is no exception. We add to this new literature by using industry-level data from 59 2-digit industries that trade between the U.S. and Germany. We find that when the old approach of the linear model was used, the real dollar-euro rate had short-run effects in 17 industries that lasted into the long run in 26 industries. However, when the nonlinear model was estimated, we found short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in 49 industries, which lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 28 industries. The J-curve effect was supported in a total of 18 industries.     

An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads,purchasing power parity disequilibria,and forward premium asymmetry

Using a panel data approach, we find statistically significant evidence that bid-ask spreads and deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) are related to the forward prediction error of ten major U.S. dollar exchange rates over the post Plaza Accord period. Previous literature suggests that bid-ask spreads proxy for liquidity risk and deviations from PPP are a source of time-varying risk premiums. Additionally, the paper provides evidence that the forward discount bias is asymmetric with respect to the sign of the forward premium as well as to an undervalued and overvalued U.S. dollar.     

The impact of deviation from relative purchasing power parity equilibrium on U.S. foreign direct investment

Analyzing inbound and outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) between the U.S. and seven developed countries over the period from 1994 to 2004, this study provides strong evidence for a positive relationship between aggregate FDI flows and a strengthening of a home currency. Further, taking exchange rate disequilibrium into account, we find that an increase in U.S. inbound FDI is related to a strengthening of an undervalued and overvalued U.S. dollar, while an increase in U.S. outbound FDI (foreign inbound FDI) is mainly related to a strengthening of an overvalued foreign currency. Disaggregate FDI flow data show that these findings hold mainly for the manufacturing (food and machinery) and the wholesale industry. We argue that our findings may provide evidence for a co-existence of the wealth-effect hypothesis and a more profit and production oriented hypothesis, once the U.S. dollar is undervalued. Additionally, the results support the argument that the profit and production oriented hypothesis dominates the wealth effect in developed countries, especially in the manufacturing and wholesale industry. Moreover, the results support the view that foreign investors are interested in how overvalued or undervalued a currency is, rather than being interested only in the recent direction of change in the exchange rate. Finally, all findings are robust with respect to several estimation procedures.     

Do U.S. macroeconomic surprises influence equity returns? An exploratory analysis of developed economies

Given the dominant role the U.S. economy plays in global trade, we explore how U.S. macroeconomic surprises affect stock markets in ten major developed economies as well as in China and India. We do not find strong enough evidence to conclude that U.S. macro shocks materially and consistently influence equity returns and volatilities in the economies studied. Consistent with previous research, it appears that only in few markets are return levels materially influenced by macro surprises generated in the U.S. Also, only a small number of macro shocks seem to be of any consistent significance. For returns levels, inflation, productivity, consumer confidence, and retail sales seem to matter. At the same time, conditional volatilities appear to be influenced by inflation, retail sales, durable goods, industrial production, consumer confidence, gross domestic product, and trade balance surprises. Finally, our exploratory analysis indicates that the degree of bilateral trade connectedness may partially explain the extent to which macroeconomic surprises are transmitted across countries.     

A revisit to economic exposure of U.S. multinational corporations

To shed light on the influence of U.S. major trade partners’ currencies on MNCs’ firm values, this study investigates the asymmetric effects and the determinants of appreciated and depreciated economic exposure of the U.S. MNCs. Our empirical results reveal several findings: (1) The influences of exchange rate fluctuation on stock returns vary enormously for different currencies. (2) During the U.S. dollar appreciating period, MNCs benefit very little from this appreciation against major trade partners’ currencies, but most MNCs see harmful impacts from a U.S. dollar appreciation against the Brazilian real. (3) During the U.S. dollar depreciating period, most U.S. MNCs benefit from this depreciation against the European Monetary Union’s euro, Mexican new peso and Brazilian real; however, they overall suffer losses against the Chinese yuan, Japanese yen, and British pound. (4) The level of foreign sales is the key determinant of economic exposure.     

诺奖得主：中国应寻求地产投资之外的拉动力

四月的京城并不平静,异常的天气让人感觉到暗潮涌动。新出台的＂415房市新政＂被称为＂中国政府对房地产业最为严厉的政策＂,疯狂上涨的中国房市顿时一片风声鹤唳。种种流言与猜想不断：人民币究竟该不该升值？中国楼市的泡沫会不会破裂？中国该不该加息？被誉为＂经济学先知＂的诺贝尔经济学奖获得者埃德蒙·费尔普斯踏上中国这片在他眼中＂充满挑战的土地＂。这位就业与增长理论的代表人物,     

Some empirical evidence on the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on cross exchange rates

This paper examines the impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks on the cross exchange rates of sterling, yen and mark. The main finding of the paper is a ‘delayed overshooting’ pattern for all currency cross rates examined (sterling/yen, yen/mark and mark/sterling) following an unexpected U.S. monetary policy change, which in turn generates excess returns. We also provide evidence that the ‘delayed overshooting’ pattern in cross exchange rates is accompanied by asymmetric interventions by central banks in the foreign exchange markets under consideration triggered by a U.S. monetary policy shock.     

U.S. Strategic Trade Policy and the Competitiveness of the U.S. Construction Industry in Developing Country Markets

SUMMARY

U.S. government trade policy increasingly reflects “strategic trade” beliefs that, because competition in markets is imperfect, governments can act strategically to affect trade flows and enhance national welfare. The U.S. National Export Strategy targets the infrastructure sector in twelve developing countries as a strategic opportunity for U.S. construction firms. This paper examines whether U.S. government export promotion initiatives effectively implement strategic trade policy by providing appropriate support to these firms in that target market. It concludes that, within limits, they do.