A Case Study of Group Decision Method for Environmental Foresight and Water Resources Planning Using a Fuzzy Approach

Group decision-making (i.e., multi-expert) is an important subject in planning water resources. The inherent complexity and uncertainty of real world urge many experts to be involved in decision-making processes. This paper presents an application of the linguistic-label aggregation method in a real-life case study. The case was taken from a foresight exercise in Colombia (South America) concerning environmental and water resources planning in a river basin. The group decision-making problem is solved using a four-step approach based on (i) the evaluation of experts’ opinions, (ii) the aggregation of opinions for each alternative, (iii) fuzzy ranking, and (iv) final assessment. Two main issues that are new in our work is that we consider temporal linguistic labels and a fuzzy ranking procedure that is able to include the mean, the standard deviation, the fuzzy membership function and the frequency of experts’ opinions for each alternative. The approach is developed and implemented on a computational tool. Results show an efficient decision-making process, that is, the tool demonstrated to deal with shortest time frames and to increase the efficiency of the planning resources, mainly because allows the decision manager to focus on the establishment of criteria. The latter also leads to objectivity and eases the identification and discussion of elements of consensus in decisions that otherwise may be embedded in individuals’ interests.     

Resource determinants of strategy and performance: The case of British exporters

This study adopts the RBV of the firm in order to identify critical advantage-generating resources and capabilities with strong positive export strategy and performance implications. The proposed export performance model is tested using a structural equation modelling approach on a sample of 356 British exporters. We examine the individual as well as the concurrent (simultaneous) direct and indirect effects of five resource bundles on export performance. We find that four resources/capabilities: managerial, knowledge, planning, and technology, have a significant positive direct effect on export performance, while relational and physical resources exhibited no unique positive effect. We also find that the firm's export strategy mediates the resource–performance nexus in the case of managerial and knowledge-based resources. The theoretical and methodological grounding of this study contributes to the advancement of export related research by providing better specification of the nature of the effects – direct or indirect – of particular resource factors on export performance.     

On the application of optimal control theory to financial planning and forecasting

This study interprets, summarizes, and applies to the financial planning and forecasting problem a completely general yet operational approach to the analysis of econometric models by control methods that has been developed by Gregory Chow. It is shown that his methodology is not only well suited for the study of the general financial planning and forecasting problem facing business firms but also suggests a sound approach to the assessment of alternative models.     

Allocation model: a tool to develop effective media plans for Turkey

This paper deals with media planning, which is a challenging problem for both academicians and practitioners. An integer linear programming model on media planning is developed which incorporates qualitative and quantitative aspects suitable to the characteristics and needs of a media environment. The objective of the model is to allocate a given advertising budget among competing magazines by the use of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) so that opportunity-to-see (OTS) is maximised. The application of the model to two consumer products proved to increase OTS considerably. The development and application of the model is especially valuable for Turkey because the number of magazines is continuously increasing, readership is low, syndicated research services are limited and models are not widely used in media planning.     

基于周期的低轨预警系统任务动态重规划策略

根据预警系统资源的特点和导弹跟踪任务的实时性和不确定性,天基低轨预警系统 任务规划具有动态性的特点。为解决低轨系统动态任务规划问题,提出了低轨预警系统动态 任务规划模式,分析了周期重规划调度策略,探讨了系统动态重规划中重规划周期的确 定方法,并对其中的弹道预测误差椭球和双星定位精度两个关键问题进行了建模,为动态问 题建模求解提供基础。     

基于价值链理论的房地产企业核心竞争力提升的研究

形成和提升核心竞争力是房地产企业获得持续发展必须面临和解决的问题。从价值链理论视角出发,房地产企业提升其核心竞争力主要包括：提升对市场的把握能力,即以设计创新提高规划设计能力,以经营创新提高市场营销能力和市场表现力;提升资源整合能力,即以加强企业文化建设、品牌建设和管理制度的创新,提升企业对无形资产以及土地、资金、人力资源和信息资源等有形资产的整合利用能力。     

Dynamic assortment in the presence of brand heterogeneity

In this paper, we study the dynamic assortment planning problem in the presence of heterogeneous brands. Over a limited selling season, the retailer sells heterogeneous products from one store brand and one national brand. We use the nested multinomial logit (NMNL) framework to model consumer choice process, in which consumers choose first which brand to buy and then a product within that brand. We formulate this problem using the finite-horizon dynamic programming approach. Using available sales transaction data, we estimate the consumer choice behavior and empirically demonstrate existence of brand heterogeneity. Further, our results suggest that ignoring brand heterogeneity will make the retailer’s expected revenues significantly overestimated, and the potential revenue overestimation depends on initial inventories and prices of products of two brands. We finally show that the retailer will benefit from dynamic assortment optimization with the estimated consumer choice model.     

Optimal consumption and investment with liquid and illiquid assets

I consider an optimal consumption/investment problem to maximize expected utility from consumption. In this market model, the investor is allowed to choose a portfolio that consists of one bond, one liquid risky asset (no transaction costs), and one illiquid risky asset (proportional transaction costs). I fully characterize the optimal consumption and trading strategies in terms of the solution of the free boundary ordinary differential equation (ODE) with an integral constraint. I find an explicit characterization of model parameters for the well‐posedness of the problem, and show that the problem is well posed if and only if there exists a shadow price process. Finally, I describe how the investor's optimal strategy is affected by the additional opportunity of trading the liquid risky asset, compared to the simpler model with one bond and one illiquid risky asset.     

Impact of operational innovations on customer loyalty in the healthcare sector

This study investigates the effects of operational innovations, such as application of advanced information technology (IT) systems and supported knowledge and skills (SKSs), on care quality and customer loyalty in the healthcare industry. A research model is proposed based on previous studies and examined the relationships among the constructs using the structural equation modeling approach. Research data were collected through a survey of patients and employees of participating hospitals in Korea, with a patient and an employee as one set. The results of the study indicate that operational innovations result in improved customer closeness, which is associated with IT systems usage and SKSs for delivery of quality care, which have a positive impact on patient satisfaction and customer loyalty. Thus, hospital managers should encourage employees to generate new ideas for work efficiency, care quality, customer loyalty, and organizational performance.     

‘Balanced Scorecard’ as an operation-level strategic planning tool for service innovation

This study proposes a model for implementing the balanced scorecard (BSC) as an operation-level strategic planning tool in a medical service department for service innovation. The study involved four major units in a district hospital: the internal medicine ward, surgery ward, gynecology ward, and pediatrics ward. The results indicated that the nursing department not only had its own unique goals and tasks, but also that it was obligated to a comprehensive service system in addition to its specific caring subjects. The study is the first to shed light on the role of department-level strategic planning tool for service innovation. The results also indicated that the operation-level should design its own BSC as a strategic planning for service innovation.     

矿产资源会计研究体系的构建

注重资源开发和利用,发展循环经济,促进人类实现可持续发展,从会计角度对自然资源进行价值核算和管理,就成为目前会计学术界所面临的一个新课题。矿产资源实行有偿化管理后,其所涵盖的资源性资产、成本、耗费、收益、信息披露等确认、计量、报告的会计核算体系的构建,矿产资源的预测、计划、决策、控制、分析、考核等会计管理体系的构建就成为急须解决的问题。     

我国公立非营利性医院集团化发展的动力机制研究

医院集团化作为一种医疗资源重组模式,在实现医疗资源共享与规模效益、增强医院市场竞争力等方面的优越性已充分显现。医院集团化的发展具有重要的经济、技术和社会意义。利益驱动,医疗技术专业化、综合化发展的推动,对合作优势的认同是医院集团化的动因．为应对我国卫生领域的开放对我国公立非营利性医院带来的冲击,应借鉴集团化发展理论在企业中运用的成熟模式。将企业集团管理理论运用到卫生改革的实践中,以推动医院集团化的发展,进而降低医疗服务成本,解决人民群众看病难、看病贵的问题,推动我国医疗改革顺利进行。     

A Whiteheadian Business Ethics and the Western Hemisphere

The first part of my presentation is a short outline of how a feminist, process-oriented, i.e. in a Whiteheadian tradition, business ethics may look like. In the second part, I want to apply this approach in the field of American foreign trade policy concerning the extension of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) to a free trade zone of the Western Hemisphere. I want to focus on ethical problems for the business of the Free Trade Area of the Americas. By taking my business ethics approach into consideration, I want to open up perspectives for a Whiteheadian view of the problem of the Free Trade Area.     

A multiobjective decision support system for multiresource forest management

A multiobjective and/or multiperson decision support system for analyzing multiresource forest management problems is developed in this paper. The procedure includes formulating the problem in a multiobjective and group decision making framework, and solving it using two solution techniques which consist of a distance-based compromise programming (CP) and a cooperative game theoretic approach of the Nash equilibrium type. The problem consists of five forest resources management objective functions to be maximized. Solving the problem using the two solution techniques enables determining a satisfactory compromise solution of the five forest resource management objectives. Sensitivity analysis of the two techniques shows compromise programming to be more sensitive to changes in the weight and the p-parameter of the technique while the cooperative game theoretic approach is relatively robust with respect to changes in the worst utility set.     

The cost of childhood injury in France

Injuries are a major public health problem worldwide. In the USA, injuries cause 146, 400 deaths annually, with 31 million non-fatal injury visits to emergency departments (EDs). EDs thus represent an important source of injury data. The primary objective of the current study was to describe the epidemiology of injury-related ED visits and assess injury-related utilization of health care resources in an inner-city hospital in Indiana, using data stored in a computerized medical record system. It involved a retrospective review of the records for injury visits to EDs and injury admissions over a 3-year period. The variables extracted and analysed included patients' demographics, external cause of injury, diagnosis, length of stay, ED and hospital charges. A total of 60,470 injury-related ED visits were made, the majority of patients were male (61.6%), uninsured (63.1%), treated in ED and discharged (98.4%). The leading causes of injury were falls (18.8%), motor vehicle crashes (18.4%), assaults (17.6%), being struck (11.2%) and overexertion (10.6). Firearms caused most injury deaths (32.4%; n = 314); motor vehicle crashes were the leading cause of hospitalization (26.6%; n = 642) and also the most expensive to treat as inpatients (mean charge $19,190). The mean charge per patient treated and discharged was $150 compared to $11,116 for patients admitted. These findings demonstrate the value of computerized medical records in capturing and storing E-coded injury data. The system generates data that can be used for epidemiological surveillance and injury prevention at the local level, and for assessment of impact of specific injuries on health care resources.     

A Crossnational Prediction Model for Business Success

In this study, the Lussier (1995) success prediction model, originally developed using U.S. data, is tested using a sample of firms from Central Eastern Europe. The same factors found to be predictors of success in the U.S. (staffing, education level, use of professional advice, and planning) were also predictors of success and failure in Central Eastern Europe. All these factors have to do with the firm's human resources. These findings should lead to reconsideration of preconceptions existing in Central Eastern Europe regarding small business, as in many of its countries it is commonly believed that human resources have little to do with business success and failure.     

On-line group decision support by preference programming in traffic planning

Preference programming is a decision support technique which allows decision makers to give preference statements of weight ratios in terms of intervals instead of single numbers in a value tree. Individual preferences, based on single number statements, can be combined into an interval model, and the negotiation proceeds by focusing on decreasing the width of the intervals. The preference programming approach was evaluated with a realistic traffic planning problem by using the HIPRE 3+ Group Link software. The results from nine test groups indicate that preference programming is an operational group decision support technique which initiates negotiations and efficiently directs the discussion towards issues which are relevant in reaching a consensus.     

Optimal Resource Allocation with Time-varying Marketing Effectiveness,Margins and Costs

The importance of optimal marketing communications mix decisions is well-recognized by both marketing scholars and practitioners. A significant volume of work has addressed the problem of dynamic marketing mix optimization assuming constant effectiveness of marketing instruments. However, the effectiveness of marketing communications varies over time for a variety of reasons. Moreover, due to factors such as inflation or deflation in media prices and/or raw material inputs, there can be differential changes in the costs of communications and/or margins on the good (or service) sold over time. The academic literature offers little normative direction on how time-varying marketing effectiveness and costs drive optimal marketing-mix levels and their relative allocation. The authors shed light on these issues by solving a monopoly firm's finite horizon dynamic marketing communications mix optimization problem involving two marketing instruments with time-varying parameters, i.e., the marketing effectiveness parameters, media costs, and product margin are all allowed to vary over time. First, they find that the structure of the solutions is similar to that of the classic Nerlove–Arrow model, for a completely general nature of time-varying effectiveness. Second, their model can be used by managers to exactly determine whether and when to switch their marketing-mix emphasis (defined by the marketing element receiving the dominant portion of the budget) over a finite planning horizon. In sum, the authors expand knowledge on optimal allocation of marketing resources with time-varying effectiveness. They also extend their solution to incorporate multiple (more than two) marketing instruments.     

ROBUST ASSET ALLOCATION WITH BENCHMARKED OBJECTIVES

In this paper, we introduce a new approach for finding robust portfolios when there is model uncertainty. It differs from the usual worst‐case approach in that a (dynamic) portfolio is evaluated not only by its performance when there is an adversarial opponent (“nature”), but also by its performance relative to a stochastic benchmark. The benchmark corresponds to the wealth of a fictitious benchmark investor who invests optimally given knowledge of the model chosen by nature, so in this regard, our objective has the flavor of min–max regret. This relative performance approach has several important properties: (i) optimal portfolios seek to perform well over the entire range of models and not just the worst case, and hence are less pessimistic than those obtained from the usual worst‐case approach; (ii) the dynamic problem reduces to a convex static optimization problem under reasonable choices of the benchmark portfolio for important classes of models including ambiguous jump‐diffusions; and (iii) this static problem is dual to a Bayesian version of a single period asset allocation problem where the prior on the unknown parameters (for the dual problem) correspond to the Lagrange multipliers in this duality relationship. This dual static problem can be interpreted as a less pessimistic alternative to the single period worst‐case Markowitz problem. More generally, this duality suggests that learning and robustness are closely related when benchmarked objectives are used.     

我国非营利组织纳税筹划动因与方法探赜

非营利组织有充分利用自身经济资源以获取效用最大化的合理内在要求,其纳税筹划意义重大。与企业纳税筹划不同,非营利组织所拥有或控制的经济资源是有限、稀缺的,寻求符合其自身特点的“最大化”目标以及纳税以致可控经济资源减少是非营利组织纳税筹划的内在动因。非营利组织的纳税筹划方法包括利用税收制度环境筹划和会计制度环境筹划两个角度,具体有利用纳税主体具体规定筹划、利用征税客体筹划、运用纳税环节、纳税期限、税收优惠纳税筹划,以及利用会计制度或会计政策筹划等。