Identifiable intangible asset disclosures, stock prices and future earnings

As a consequence of regulatory reforms currently being initiated as part of international convergence, it is likely that the recognition and disclosure of identifiable intangible assets by Australian firms will cease. This study provides empirical evidence on how this will impact financial reports. First, evidence is provided of a positive association between stock prices and voluntarily recognized and disclosed identifiable intangible assets. Second, evidence is provided of a positive association between identifiable intangible assets and realized future period income. This provides insights into the nature of the information provided by intangible assets, and identifies a basis for the association between stock prices and identifiable intangible assets. This leads to the conclusion that identifiable intangible assets disclosures are value relevant, and that with the application of the restrictive recognition rules in AASB138 these disclosures in financial reports will be greatly diminished.     

Private and public disclosures and the efficiency of stock prices

In this paper I examine the effects of private and public disclosures on the informational efficiency of stock prices. In addition to making a public announcement such as an earnings announcement, a public firm can make private disclosure to an analyst. If the analyst's relative information advantage is below a threshold level, private disclosure to the analyst leads to more efficient stock price. I demonstrate that the allocation of information across market participants is an important determinant of price efficiency. While accounting regulators often argue the need for equal access to information, the paper shows that there are conditions under which a limited amount of informational inequality may lead to more efficient stock prices.     

Pro forma disclosures,audit fees,and auditor resignations

The disclosure of non-GAAP (pro forma) earnings numbers by managers in the post-SOX era continues to attract attention from regulators, media, and researchers. However, there is limited empirical evidence on how auditors view clients that emphasize pro forma earnings over GAAP earnings. We study the extent to which audit fees and auditor resignations are associated with opportunistic non-GAAP disclosures. We find that during the pre-SOX period, optimistic pro forma differences, measured using either IBES actual earnings or hand-collected pro forma earnings, are associated with higher audit fees and a higher likelihood of auditor resignations. Additional results indicate that auditors seem to be more concerned with non-GAAP earnings disclosures in the post-SOX period.     

Information content, audit reports and going-concern: an Australian study

Research conducted on the information content of going concern ‘modified’ reports in the USA and UK indicates that a modified audit report does not appear to have information content to users if the going concern contingency is disclosed in the notes to the financial statements. In the present study, we provide evidence from Australia. We examine whether modification/qualification by an auditor in Australia (an ‘Emphasis of Matter’ and an ‘Except for’ report, respectively) has information content to a user. The results indicate that for a company in a state of financial distress, the modification, in either form, does not appear to significantly enhance either perceptions of risk or decision-making.     

Oil prices,earnings, and stock returns

Review of Accounting Studies - Research has failed to document a consistent association between oil prices and stock prices. We propose and examine whether that failure is due to the need to link...     

Tax-related mandatory risk factor disclosures,future profitability,and stock returns

Review of Accounting Studies - Prior research finds that mandatory risk factor disclosures are informative in that they increase investors’ assessments of the volatility of a firm’s...     

Leverage change,debt overhang,and stock prices

We document a significant and negative effect of the change in a firm's leverage ratio on its stock prices. We find that the negative effect is stronger for firms that have higher leverage ratios, higher likelihood of default, and face more severe financial constraints. Moreover, firms with an increase in leverage ratio tend to have less future investment. These findings are consistent with Myers' (1977) debt overhang theory that an increase in leverage may lead to future underinvestment, thus reducing a firm's value.     

Convertible bond arbitrage,liquidity externalities,and stock prices

In the context of convertible bond issuance, we examine the impact of arbitrage activity on underlying equity markets. In particular, we use changes in equity short interest following convertible bond issuance to identify convertible bond arbitrage activity and analyze its impact on stock market liquidity and prices for the period 1993 to 2006. There is considerable evidence of arbitrage-induced short selling resulting from issuance. Moreover, we find strong evidence that this activity is systematically related to liquidity improvements in the stock. These results are robust to controlling for the potential endogeneity of arbitrage activity.     

The impact on stock prices of deferral and elimination of internal control audit requirement for small firms

This paper examines the cumulative market reaction to the events related to deferral of internal control audit requirement under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and its elimination under the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 for nonaccelerated filers (small firms). We document that small firms experienced negative cumulative abnormal returns around these events; and the differences between the cumulative abnormal returns for small firms and the two control groups (accelerated and large accelerated filers) were negative and significant at the 1% level. These results support the notion that market participants value the reliability of financial information irrespective of the firm size. Within the small firms, we find no firm characteristic significantly explains the market reaction to the events considered. That is, all small firms lost market value in reaction to the events that delayed and eliminated their internal control audit requirement.     

Participation costs, trend chasing, and volatility of stock prices

We analyze an overlapping generations model with fixed costsof stock market participation. Participation in the stock marketis determined endogenously and covaries positively with precedinginnovations in dividends. The equilibrium share price is positivelyrelated to market participation of the same period and to informationabout future dividends. There is 'rational trend chasing' inthe sense that, although all agents are rational, market participationrises after an increase of the share price and falls after adecrease. Finally, we show that the endogenous fluctuationsof market participation lead to increased volatility of theshare price.     

On the predictability of stock prices: A case for high and low prices

This paper contributes to technical analysis (TA) literature by showing that the high and low prices of equity shares are largely predictable only on the basis of their past realizations. Moreover, using their forecasts as entry/exit signals can improve common TA trading strategies applied on US equity prices. We propose modeling high and low prices using a simple implementation of a fractional vector autoregressive model with error correction (FVECM). This model captures two fundamental patterns of high and low prices: their cointegrating relationship and the long-memory of their difference (i.e., the range), which is a measure of volatility.     

The long-run relationship between stock prices and goods prices: New evidence from panel cointegration

We examine the long-run relationship between stock prices and goods prices to gauge whether stock market investment can hedge against inflation. Data from 16 OECD countries over the period 1970–2006 are used. We account for different inflation regimes with the use of sub-sample regressions, while maintaining the power of tests in small sample sizes by combining time-series data across our sample countries in a panel unit root and panel cointegration econometric framework. The evidence supports a positive long-run relationship between goods prices and stock prices with the estimated goods price coefficient being in line with the generalized Fisher hypothesis.     

Option prices and stock market momentum: evidence from China

Option prices tend to be correlated to past stock market returns due to market imperfections. We unprecedentedly examine this issue on the SSE 50 ETF option in the Chinese derivatives market. To measure the price pressure in the options market, we construct an implied volatility spread based on pairs of the SSE 50 ETF option with identical expiration dates and strike prices. By regressing the implied volatility spread on past stock returns, we find that past stock returns exert a strong influence on the pricing of index options. Specifically, we find that SSE 50 ETF calls are significantly overvalued relative to SSE 50 ETF puts after stock price increases and the reverse is also true after the stock price decreases. Moreover, we validate the momentum effects in the underlying stock market to be responsible for the price pressure. These findings are both economically and statistically significant and have important implications.     

Sentiment and stock prices: The case of aviation disasters

Behavioral economic studies reveal that negative sentiment driven by bad mood and anxiety affects investment decisions and may hence affect asset pricing. In this study we examine the effect of aviation disasters on stock prices. We find evidence of a significant negative event effect with an average market loss of more than $60 billion per aviation disaster, whereas the estimated actual loss is no more than $1 billion. In two days a price reversal occurs. We find the effect to be greater in small and riskier stocks and in firms belonging to less stable industries. This event effect is also accompanied by an increase in the perceived risk: implied volatility increases after aviation disasters without an increase in actual volatility.     

Firm fundamentals and stock prices in emerging Asian stock markets: some panel data evidence

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the direct link between firm fundamentals and stock prices in a set of emerging Asian stock markets using firm-level panel data. In doing so, we explore the relationship between firm-specific variations in stock returns and firm fundamentals in the context of a simple present value framework. We find that alternative proxies of variation in firm fundamentals—albeit at differing degrees—explain a significant part of firm-specific return variation in a majority of emerging markets in Asia. Findings are robust to the influence of other factors known to affect stock return volatility (e.g. firm size, stock turnover, and leverage). Overall results suggest that stock prices in a majority of the Asian emerging markets contain a significant amount of firm-specific fundamental information and are, therefore, not as murky as commonly thought.     

Information,noise, and asset prices: An experimental study

A series of laboratory asset markets is conducted to examine the effect of noisy information releases on security prices. The price reaction to a given information release has been hypothesized to be positively related to the degree of uncertainty just prior to the release and negatively related to the degree of noise in the information itself. A series of two-period markets is conducted with noisy information provided between periods. Prior uncertainty and noise are manipulated. Using a random effects regression procedure, strong support is found for both hypotheses.     

Permanent and transitory components of GDP and stock prices: further analysis

Using the conventional VAR identification approach, Cochrane (Quarterly Journal of Economics 107: 241–65, 1994) finds that substantial amounts of variation in GDP growth and stock returns are due to transitory shocks. Following the common trend decomposition of King etal. (American Economic Review 81: 819–40, 1991), we show that Cochrane's results depend on the assumption of weak exogeneity of one of the variables with respect to the cointegration vector. When this assumption holds both approaches coincide. If not, the shocks Cochrane called transitory are not totally transitory. In this case, the conventional VAR approach with the assumption of the weak exogeneity may overstate the magnitude of transitory shocks and understate that of permanent shocks. We find that the permanent components of GDP and stock prices are much larger than those estimates of Cochrane, although substantial (but much smaller than in Cochrane 1994) variations in GDP growth and stock returns are attributed to transitory shocks.     

Ownership concentration,foreign shareholding,audit quality,and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the effects of largest-shareholder ownership concentration, foreign ownership, and audit quality on the amount of firm-specific information incorporated into share prices, as measured by stock price synchronicity, of Chinese-listed firms over the 1996–2003 period. We show that synchronicity is a concave function of ownership by the largest shareholder with its maximum at an approximate 50% level. Further, we find that synchronicity is higher when the largest shareholder is government related. We also find that foreign ownership and auditor quality are inversely associated with synchronicity. Finally, we show that the amount of earnings information reflected in stock returns is lower for firms with high synchronicity.     

Abnormal real operations,real earnings management,and subsequent crashes in stock prices

We study the impact of firms’ abnormal business operations on their future crash risk in stock prices. Computed based on real earnings management (REM) models, firms’ deviation in real operations (DROs) from industry norms is shown to be positively associated with their future crash risk. This association is incremental to that between discretionary accruals (DAs) and crash risk found by prior studies. Moreover, after Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX) of 2002, DRO’s predictive power for crash risk strengthens substantially, while DA’s predictive power essentially dissipates. These results are consistent with the prior finding that managers shift from accrual earnings management to REM after SOX. We further develop a suspect-firm approach to capture firms’ use of DRO for REM purposes. This analysis shows that REM-firms experience a significant increase in crash risk in the following year. These findings suggest that the impact of DRO on crash risk is at least partially through REM.     

Investor mood and the determinants of stock prices: an experimental analysis

We examine, in a controlled experimental setting, whether changes in investor mood cause changes in the determinants of stock prices. Our results show that a deterioration in mood, reflected in the negative dimensions of mood state, increases the level of risk aversion in male, but not female, investors. We find no evidence to suggest that a change in mood impacts on investors' forecasts of future earnings or future cash flows. By establishing the causal impact of a change in mood on risk aversion, our study provides support for archival research that relates various market anomalies to investor mood.