Equally important criteria and demanding aggregation

Within the class of weighted averages of ordered measurements on criteria of ‘equal importance’, we discuss aggregators that help assess to what extent ‘most’ criteria are satisfied, or a ‘good performance across the board’ is attained. All aggregators discussed are compromises between the simple mean and the very demanding minimum score. The weights of the aggregators are described in terms of the convex polytopes as induced by the characteristics of the aggregators, such as concavity. We take the barycentres of the polytopes as representative weights.     

Convergence to Walrasian equilibrium with minimal information

We consider convergence to Walrasian equilibrium in a situation where firms know only market price and their own cost function. We term this a situation of minimal information. We model the problem as a large population game of Cournot competition. The Nash equilibrium of this model is identical to the Walrasian equilibrium. We apply the best response (BR) dynamic as our main evolutionary model. This dynamic can be applied under minimal information as firms need to know only the market price and the their own cost to compute payoffs. We show that the BR dynamic converges globally to Nash equilibrium in an aggregative game like the Cournot model. Hence, it converges globally to the Walrasian equilibrium under minimal information. We extend the result to some other evolutionary dynamics using the method of potential games.

     

Nonparametric function estimation subject to monotonicity, convexity and other shape constraints

This paper uses free-knot and fixed-knot regression splines in a Bayesian context to develop methods for the nonparametric estimation of functions subject to shape constraints in models with log-concave likelihood functions. The shape constraints we consider include monotonicity, convexity and functions with a single minimum. A computationally efficient MCMC sampling algorithm is developed that converges faster than previous methods for non-Gaussian models. Simulation results indicate the monotonically constrained function estimates have good small sample properties relative to (i) unconstrained function estimates, and (ii) function estimates obtained from other constrained estimation methods when such methods exist. Also, asymptotic results show the methodology provides consistent estimates for a large class of smooth functions. Two detailed illustrations exemplify the ideas.     

The value relevance of earnings disaggregation provided in the Spanish profit and loss account

This study analyses the value relevance of the different components of the earnings figure that appear in the Spanish profit and loss account in order to determine the preferred level of disaggregation by investors. It is considered that the disaggregation may help to evaluate the earnings quality; that is, its predictive ability about future earnings. We use a valuation model based on Ohlson (1995), which models firm value as a function of book value of equity and earnings, adding the earnings components to determine whether they provide incremental price-relevant information beyond aggregate earnings. In addition, we allow the parameters to vary under some firm-specific circumstances. Our results support the usefulness of the earnings decomposition for valuation purposes, resting primarily on the disclosure of the corporation tax, particularly for either small companies, or with a high-risk profile or with low persistence of earnings. It seems that neither financial profit nor extraordinary earnings have additional information content over the bottom-line figure, which is consistent with the IASC's position on ordinary versus extraordinary items.     

浅议公司虚假财务信息与内部控制环境

当前许多公司对财务信息造假,只有弄清造假的目的,才能找出解决财务信息造假的办法。文章从公司的内部控制方面进行分析,希望能通过改善公司的内部控制环境解决造假问题。     

Estimation of data measured with error and subject to linear restrictions

Variables are often measured subject to error, whether they are collected as part of an experiment or by sample surveys. A consequence of this is that there will be different estimates of the same variable, or, more generally, linear restrictions which the observations should satisfy but fail to. With knowledge of the variances of the various observations, it has been shown elsewhere that maximum-likelihood estimates of the observations can be produced. This paper shows how, given a sequence of such observations, estimates can be produced without knowledge of data reliabilities. The method is applied to estimates of constant price US GNP. It suggests that 64 per cent of the discrepancy should be attributed to the expenditure estimate, with only 36 per cent going to the income/output estimate. The current method of presentation, on the other hand, places the whole of the error in the income/output estimate.     

Nonparametric and semiparametric regressions subject to monotonicity constraints: Estimation and forecasting

This paper considers nonparametric and semiparametric regression models subject to monotonicity constraint. We use bagging as an alternative approach to Hall and Huang (2001). Asymptotic properties of our proposed estimators and forecasts are established. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to show their finite sample performance. An application to predicting equity premium is taken for illustration. We introduce a new forecasting evaluation criterion based on the second order stochastic dominance in the size of forecast errors and compare models over different sizes of forecast errors. Imposing monotonicity constraint can mitigate the chance of making large size forecast errors.     

Classification and aggregation: An application to industrial classification in cps data

In this paper we offer a method for deciding how to aggregate a set of elementary industries. The method is then applied to the problem of estimating a wage equation that allows for industry-specific effects. Our method explicitly formalizes the trade-off between goodness-of-fit and parsimony implicit in an aggregation problem. By varying the parameter of the assumed loss function, one obtains a whole sequence of aggregation levels. Further, the resulting sequence is consistent; that is, groupings formed at one level of aggregation will never be undone when one aggregates further.     

企业会计信息失真原因及其对策——基于不同所有制视角的分析

会计信息的质量对于维持经济生活的秩序起着至关重要的作用,但我国目前的状况却令人担忧。文章分析了不同所有制企业会计信息失真的原因,并针对不同所有制企业提出相应的对策。     

浅析如何选择与设计建筑排水系统

排水管道的设计与居住环境卫生有着直接的关联。建设部城镇住宅研究所制定的《小康型住宅厨房卫生间设计通则》(BK-94-21),中国建筑标准设计研究所出版的国家标准图《住宅卫生间》(01SJ914)、《住宅厨房》(01SJ913),对厨房、卫生间的设计给出了统一的指导原则,对提高住宅建筑给排水的设计水平起到了积极的作用。现结合我们近年在住宅建筑设计上的实践,谈谈住宅建筑排水管道的设计。     

An index aggregation approach to comparing the overall performance of emerging and developed countries

An index aggregation approach is proposed to carry out comparisons of BRICSAM, a populous rapidly growing economic group consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and Mexico with Group of Seven (G7), the most developed country club including Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom and the United States. It is estimated that by 2050 the accelerated economic activity of BRICSAM could have significant impact on investment flows, legal and regulatory frameworks, the stability of political institutions, human capital and migration flows, competition policy, intellectual property rights, and social and environmental policies. The comparison analyses of BRICSAM and G7 countries could assist people to better understand the status quo of these countries in the global economy and international system, particularly in the areas of economics and responsible activities such as sustainable development, global commitments and transparent practices. Many country-ranking indices, such as the indices given in the global competitiveness report by the World Economic Forum, and the environmental sustainability index by Yale University, constitute evaluations of countries from different perspectives. This paper proposes a data envelopment analysis-based approach to aggregate different ranking indices for BRICSAM and the G7 countries. The approach can provide a fair overall assessment of a country's standing by maximizing its possibility of obtaining the best possible result.     

Introduction to internally consistent modeling,aggregation, inference,and policy

This special issue of the Journal of Econometrics honors William A. Barnett’s exceptional contributions to unifying economic theory with rigorous statistical inference to interpret economic data and inform public policy. It is devoted to papers that advance microeconometrics, macroeconometrics, and financial econometrics to build models to interpret evidence.     

浅析会计信息失真之成因与防范

近年来,国内外会计信息造假事件屡见不鲜、层出不穷,如何避免和防范会计信息失真,成为会计理论界广泛关注的热点问题。文章从分析会计信息失真的原因入手,从强化政府及社会监督机制、推动会计法规准则和企业内部制度建设、创新会计工作运行机制、优化会计人员能力素质和执业道德教育等多个方面,有针对性地提出了治理对策。     

投资者异质性与会计盈余信息的市场反应

本文借鉴经济学和心理学最新研究成果,从信息使用者的角度,分析具有前景理论和心理账户理论描述特徵的异质投资者的非理性行为,封会计盈余信息所蕴含价值的市场反应的影响：研究发现,具有前景理论和心理账户理论描述特徵的异质投资者,会倾向于继续持有亏损的股票,并卖出赢利的股票。在这种情况下,股票价格对于新增会计盈余信息的变化,会受到投资者心理账户申对于自身所持股票赢利或亏损分类的影响,造成以股票价格变化来衡量的会计盈余信息价值含量降低。本文的研究成功地把投资者心理因素与行为偏差的影响引入会计研究领域中,为後续研究提供了新思路.     

A heuristic algorithm for determining lot sizes of an item subject to regular and overtime production capacities

The problem considered in this paper deals with the sizing and timing of replenishments for an item facing a time-varying, but known, pattern of requirements. Regular time and overtime (the latter at a cost premium) production options are available where there are production capacities that also can vary with time. The problem is to establish the pattern of replenishments so as to keep the total of setup, carrying and overtime premium costs as low as possible without any backlogging of demand and without violating any of the capacity constraints. A heuristic procedure, simple enough to implement manually, is developed and tested on a large representative set of problems. The resulting performance is excellent, namely an average cost penalty of only 0.5%.     

Combining historical and preliminary information to obtain timely time series data

A method is presented to improve the precision of timely data, which are published when final data are not yet available. Explicit statistical formulae, equivalent to Kalman filtering, are derived to combine historical with preliminary information. The application of these formulae is validated by the data, through a statistical test of compatibility between sources of information. A measure of the share of precision of each source of information is also derived. An empirical example with Mexican economic data serves to illustrate the procedure.     

Receptivity of India's small and medium-sized enterprises to information system adoption

This study surveys the receptivity of India's small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to the adoption of information systems (IS). Utilising a portion of Rogers' model of innovation diffusion as the framework, and treating IS as a form of new innovation, this study analyses factors affecting IS diffusion. A multiple regression analysis is carried out, with the five attributes of innovation highlighted by Rogers, to determine the attributes that affect the willingness to adopt. Out of the five factors affecting the adoption of IS by SMEs, only relative advantage, compatibility and trialability appear significant, with the overall regression explaining around 39% of willingness to adopt.