Incorporating Transportation Network Structure in Spatial Econometric Models of Commodity Flows

Abstract

We use a spatial econometric extension of the traditional regression-based gravity model to model commodity flows, focusing on a formal methodology for incorporating information regarding the highway network into the spatial connectivity structure of the spatial autoregressive econometric model. We show that our simple approach to incorporating this information in the model produces improved model fit and higher likelihood function values. Empirical estimates of the relative importance of the different types of origin–destination connectivity between regions indicates that the strongest spatial autoregressive effects arise when both origin and destination regions have neighbouring regions located on the highway network.     

Make and Use Approaches to Regional and Interregional Accounts and Models

Institutional, or sector-by-sector input–output tables have traditionally been used in regional and interregional modelling. This paper examines the origins of this tradition and argues instead, both theoretically and empirically, for the integration of make and use submodels within models of production, demand and interregional trade, outlining the manner in which they can be integrated. Further, it is argued that structural rather than reduced-form models represent a sounder theoretical base. Finally, a Danish interregional model (LINE) based on a social accounting matrix framework that employs these principles is presented. The paper also deals with the issue of data construction at the regional and interregional levels, based on the make and use approach. It is argued that when data are constructed at a low level of sectoral and spatial aggregation under accounting consistency constraints, data quality and validity are high.     

The effect of agricultural price-support policies on interregional and rural-to-urban migration in Korea: 1976-1980

The impact of rice price-support policies, designed to increase farmers' income and reduce rural-urban migration in the Republic of Korea, is examined for the period 1976-1980 using a polytomous logistic model. "Our findings revealed that the elasticity of migration with respect to rice yield per origin farm household is positive and is significantly different from zero. The elasticities of migration with respect to rate of urbanization, particularly urban concentration-agglomeration, and population size of the destination are also positive and are significantly different from zero....Our findings questioned the wisdom of employing rice price price-support programs as a viable policy for reducing interregional and rural-to-urban migration in Korea."     

A new interpretation of the “normalizing” or “balancing” factors of gravity-type spatial models

As the title implies, this paper provides a new way of viewing the so-called “normalizing” or “balancing” factors of generalized gravity-type spatial models. This new interpretation—a more precise version of an earlier interpretation offered by Wilson—is made in terms of the notions of origin and destination accessibilities which are shown to implicitly underly the model.The first part of the paper discusses several previous interpretations of balancing factors. The notions of origin and destination accessibilities are presented in the second section. The third section provides new interpretations of balancing factors in terms of these accessibility notions. The fourth section presents some new modeling results which are made possible by this new interpretation of balancing factors. The fifth and final section of the paper discusses a potentially fruitful direction for further research.     

Spatial interaction modeling of interregional commodity flows

Drawing from both the spatial price equilibrium theoretical framework and the empirical literature on spatial interaction modeling, this paper expands models of interregional commodity flows (CFs) by incorporating new variables and using a flexible Box-Cox functional form. The 1993 US commodity flows survey provides the empirical basis for estimating state-to-state flow models for 16 commodity groups over the 48 continental US states. The optimized Box-Cox specification proves to be superior to the multiplicative one in all cases, while selected variables provide new insights into the determinants of state-to-state CFs.     

Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility Patterns*

Recent studies by economists have focused on cultural transmission from the origin country rather than the origin family. Our paper extends this research by investigating how family‐specific‘cultural transmission’ can affect fertility rates. Following Machado and Santos Silva [Journal of the American Statistical Association (2005) Vol. 100, p. 1226] and Miranda [Journal of Population Economics (2008) Vol. 21, p. 67], we estimate count data quantile regression models using the British Household Panel Survey. We find that a woman's origin‐family size is positively associated with completed fertility in her destination family. A woman's country of birth also matters for her fertility. For a sub‐sample of continuously partnered men and women, both partners’ origin‐family sizes significantly affect destination‐family fertility.     

THE TRANSPORT SECTOR AND REGIONAL PRICE DIFFERENTIALS: A SPATIAL CGE MODEL FOR CHINESE PROVINCES

With regression formulas replaced by equilibrium conditions, a spatial CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model can substantially reduce data requirements. Detailed regional analyses are thus possible in countries where only limited regional statistics are available. Alhough regional price differentials play important roles in multiregional settings, transport does not receive much attention in existing models. This paper formulates a spatial CGE model that explicitly considers the transport sector and FOB/CIF prices. After describing the model, the performance of our model is evaluated by comparing the benchmark equilibrium for China with a survey-based interregional I-O table for 1987. The structure of Chinese economies is summarized using information obtained from the benchmark equilibrium computation. This includes regional and sectoral production distributions and price differentials. The equilibrium for 1997 facilitates discussion of changes in regional economic structures that China has experienced in the decade.     

Spatial and sectoral characteristics of China’s international and interregional virtual water flows – based on multi-regional input–output model

This paper provides a systematic analysis of spatial and sectoral characteristics and changes in virtual water flows associated with China’s interregional and international trade based on the China interregional input–output tables of 2002 and 2007. The results show significant improvement in water use efficiency between 2002 and 2007. However, the general spatial patterns and sectoral components of virtual water flows have more or less remained during the period. Almost all Chinese provinces are net exporters of virtual water in international trade. In interregional trade, the dominant direction of virtual water flow is from peripheral provinces to eastern coastal provinces. The agricultural sector plays an important role in shaping this direction and has significant impacts on water uses in exporting provinces, some of which are water scarce. The results of this study clarify some confusions concerning mismatches between regional water endowments and virtual water trade within China and with other countries.     

基于生态位理论的三清山大旅游圈构建

本文以研究区域内旅游地的系统空间关系和发展策略为目标,引入生态学中的生态位理论,基于数学模型构建指标体系,对三清山周边区域旅游城市生态位进行测评;结合聚类分析,演绎三清山周边区域的空间等级模式;通过错位、扩充、优化等生态位策略,扩展旅游地生态位的宽度,构建三清山大旅游圈,以推动区域旅游系统的有序、健康发展。     

Raising the Bar (3)

This editorial summarizes and comments on the papers published in issue 11(3) so as to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends. The first paper proposes spatial and a-spatial indicators to describe the networks of airline companies around the world. The second paper sets forth a two-regime gravity-type model with an endogenous threshold parameter to assess the effect of labour market conditions on interregional migration flows. The third paper utilizes micro-data to explain student migration flows to higher education institutions. The fourth paper is among the first to make use of simulation-based location quotients in a multiregional input–output model. Finally, the last paper provides a purely economic–theoretical model on cooperative limit pricing in the context of spatial competition.     

Multiplier-accelerator models revisited

This article discusses multiplier-accelerator models in continuous time as formulated once by Phillips. The model is placed in a continuous two-dimensional spatial setting and augmented by an interregional trade multiplier. It is seen that this produces complex patterns of change like a distributed lag system. Moreover, the action of the accelerator is made non-linear as suggested by Goodwin. This changes the system to produce limit cycles. The limit cycles may bifurcate due to parametric change. In the spatial setting it is seen that the space coordinates can cause bifurcation of the temporal limit cycle pattern.     

SPATIAL PRICE EQUILIBRIUM AND THE TRANSPORT SECTOR: A TRADE‐CONSISTENT SCGE MODEL

In spatial computable general equilibrium models, interregional trade ought to play an important role in determining the spatial price equilibrium. Although the Armington assumption is commonly employed to describe cross‐hauling, many of the existing models do not explicitly consider the behavior of transport firms. This paper presents a framework that is compatible with the Armington assumption and explicitly considers transport activities. In the model, the trade coefficient takes the form of a potential function, and the equilibrium market price becomes similar to the price index in the context of new economic geography. The features of the model are investigated by using the minimal setting, which comprises two nontransport sectors and three regions. Because transport costs are given exogenously, the commodity prices are determined relative to them. The model can be described as a system of homogeneous equations, where an output in one region can arbitrarily be determined similarly as a price in the Walrasian equilibrium.     

Too big or too small? A synthetic view of the commitment problem of interregional transfers

There is a growing body of literature on the commitment problem of interregional transfers. The problem occurs because of an ex post bailout by a central government leading to ex ante adverse incentive consequences for a local government. However, different models have yielded different economic consequences. The local government may be too large, overspending and/or overborrowing, or it may be too small, raising less of its own revenue. In the presence of interregional spillovers, the equilibrium may yield a Pareto-efficient outcome. The present paper aims to synthesize these models, developing a simple decentralized leadership model. A critical question concerns what decision is made ex ante by the local government—namely public expenditure or tax collection—with the remaining policy instrument being residual adjusted by ex post transfers. We discuss how different scenarios affect the equilibrium outcome.     

Reconsidering Import Dependency in Turkey: The Breakdown of Sectoral Demands with Respect to Suppliers

The common practice for finding direct and indirect import requirements in response to domestic final demand changes involves multiplication of the direct imports coefficients matrix by the Leontief inverse matrix of domestic coefficients. The outcome is usually referred to as the import dependency matrix, a typical element of which gives intermediate import demand, induced by the domestic final demand (policy) sector (column), from the foreign (origin) sector (row). We propose an alternative methodology to capture all three dimensions of import dependency, i.e. origin, destination and policy. The information content of the import dependency matrix is expanded by information on domestic sectors (destination) which demand intermediate imports. Calculations reveal some interesting features of import dependency in Turkey, namely that policy sectors mostly coincide with destination sectors, that oil refinery emerges as a leading destination sector for all, and that raw petroleum is a leading origin sector.     

Women in the migrant economy. A positional approach to contextualize gendered transnational trajectories

ABSTRACT

Drawing on the life histories of migrant women entrepreneurs in the Netherlands and Spain, this article explores the influence of transnational trajectories on their social positions and business strategies. A translocational positional approach enables us to research the transnational strategies of women entrepreneurs more effectively in addition to examining the changes in social positions and gendered identities between the country of origin and the country of destination. This approach contributes to scholarship on ‘context’ by offering a transnational gendered dimension in relation to the effects of social, spatial and institutional factors. Our findings demonstrate how female migrant entrepreneurs redefine their social status in different contexts by establishing a business and challenge, contest or comply with gender relations in their transnational entrepreneurial journeys.     

Economic and spatial determinants of interregional migration in Kazakhstan

In this paper we analyze economic and spatial determinants of interregional migration in Kazakhstan using quarterly panel data on region to region migration in 2008–2010. The main contribution of the paper relates to the ethnic divide in Kazakhstan, which is the home of a big ethnic Russian community, adding to the scarce literature on ethnic differences in migration patterns. Against this background we investigate whether the determinants of interregional mobility depend on ethnicity. In line with traditional economic theory we find that migration is determined by economic factors, first of all wage. As predicted by gravity arguments, mobility is larger between more populated regions and distance has a strong negative impact on migration, indicating high migration-related costs. Most likely caused by stronger family ties and kinship bonds, the deterring effect of distance is higher for ethnic Kazakhs.     

Interregional Input–Output Modelling in Indonesia: A Constrained Growth Rate Approach with Endogenous Investment

In interregional input–output (IO) models, investment can be endogenized in many different ways, varying from dynamic Leontief-type solutions to computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. However, large versions of these models are difficult to implement because of the absence of the required data. In this paper, a different, less data-demanding treatment of regional investment is presented for an interregional IO forecasting model in which a simultaneous solution is given for regional GDP by industry, on the one hand, and for regional aggregate investment, on the other hand. In this way, investment plays its role as a disaggregate demand factor by industry and region, as well as being an aggregate supply constraint on regional capital stock at the same time. Some empirical results are presented for a 27-region model in Indonesia, which has been used by the government during the preparations for the new national 5-year plan for 1994–1999.     

Conflict analysis and compromise strategies in integrated spatial systems

This paper aims at showing the potential of multiple objective analysis for analyzing conflicts in a spatial-economic-environmental system. After a brief introduction to interactive approaches to multiple objective decision models, a conceptual framework for an interregional system will be designed, while next an operational application will be given. Various empirical results of an interregional model for the Netherlands will be presented.     

ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLD LEISURE AND SHOPPING BEHAVIOR IN IBARAKI PREFECTURE, JAPAN

Understanding household leisure and shopping behavior is an important component of market research, shop location decisions, travel behavior, and consumer behavior studies. This paper estimates a gravity model of travel behaviors related to leisure and shopping trips in the Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, based on a 1998 survey data set by Poisson regression. The overall results indicate that GDP per capita of cities of origin and of destination, population, train stations, and store area of the destination city affect trip flow positively. Intercity distance, store areas in the city of origin, and higher density in the city of origin negatively affect trip flow. Different variables distinctly affect the shopping behavior for different commodities.     

The origin of spatial interaction

This paper uses spatial empirical methods to detect and analyze trade patterns in a historical data set on Chinese rice prices. Our results suggest that spatial features were important for the expansion of interregional trade. Geography dictates, first, over what distances trade was possible in different regions, because the costs of ship transport were considerably below those for land transport. Spatial features also influence the direction in which a trading network is expanding. Moreover, our analysis captures the impact of new trade routes both within and outside the trading areas.