Adding dummy variables: A simple approach for improved volatility forecasting in electricity market

This study used dummy variables to measure the influence of day-of-the-week effects and structural breaks on volatility. Considering day-of-the-week effects, structural breaks, or both, we propose three classes of HAR models to forecast electricity volatility based on existing HAR models. The estimation results of the models showed that day-of-the-week effects only improve the fitting ability of HAR models for electricity volatility forecasting at the daily horizon, whereas structural breaks can improve the in-sample performance of HAR models when forecasting electricity volatility at daily, weekly, and monthly horizons. The out-of-sample analysis indicated that both day-of-the-week effects and structural breaks contain additional ex ante information for predicting electricity volatility, and in most cases, dummy variables used to measure structural breaks contain more out-of-sample predictive information than those used to measure day-of-the-week effects. The out-of-sample results were robust across three different methods. More importantly, we argue that adding dummy variables to measure day-of-the-week effects and structural breaks can improve the performance of most other existing HAR models for volatility forecasting in the electricity market.     

Beyond a Liberal Critique of ‘Trickle Down': Urban Planning in the City of Malmö

This article scrutinizes the much used, but less examined, concept of ‘trickle down' in an urban setting. We make a distinction between the production of and distribution in the city, and argue that trickle down in contemporary urban policy could be regarded as the liberal link between production and distribution. Based on interviews with key figures and document analyses, we look at the transformation of the Swedish city of Malmö from an industrial to a post‐industrial city, where, during the last two decades, we have found three concurrent components: the ideology of trickle down; several urban policy programs and governmental policies to ‘make' money and resources trickle down; as well as increased economic polarization and segregation. A liberal critique of trickle down would argue that market mechanisms cannot by themselves solve distribution, and that government policies therefore are needed. We argue for the need to go beyond a liberal critique of trickle down and stress how unequal distribution is built into the unequal production of the city.     

Who Builds Cities in China? How Urban Investment and Development Companies Have Transformed Shanghai

While there is general acceptance that urban governance in China is entrepreneurial in nature, little has been written about the precise ways in which Chinese cities implement entrepreneurial policies. In this article we argue that the primary agents of urban entrepreneurialism in China are urban investment and development companies (UIDCs), known in Chinese as chengtou for short. We start by defining UIDCs as a category of state-owned enterprise, but one that is wholly owned by local (often city) governments. We note that in the literature UIDCs are generally recognized for their involvement in raising funds for projects and piling up hidden debts, but their multiple roles in urban development tend to be neglected. We introduce here four UIDCs that have been largely responsible for the transformation of Shanghai into a modern city spearheading Chinese state entrepreneurialism, and in doing so we delineate the full range of the activities of these urban business empires. We argue in particular that they represent a corporate involvement by the state in urban development—the state presenting itself in the guise of a market player, a corporate entity able to raise funds and act as if it were a private company. UIDCs are the driving force behind China's urban entrepreneurialism and are without a clear parallel elsewhere.     

Transport costs, intermediate goods, and localized growth

This paper presents a dynamic, two-regional, general equilibrium model in which interregional production and trade patterns are endogenously determined. Localized growth stems from the geographical concentration of an industrial sector exhibiting permanent productivity increases. Geographical concentration is a result of the interaction between local market size and local competition in the differentiated input industry. Regional factor endowment with an immobile factor is decisive for the long-run specialization, trade and growth patterns between the regions if large endowment differences prevail. With equal-sized regions, multiple equilibria exist. Furthermore, we argue that integration might lead to increasing regional concentration of production and innovation.     

Optimal density of radial major roads in a two-dimensional monocentric city with endogenous residential distribution and housing prices

This paper proposes an analytical urban system equilibrium model for optimizing the density of radial major roads in a two-dimensional monocentric city. The proposed model involves four types of agents: local authorities, property developers, households and household workers (i.e. commuters). The local authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the urban system by determining the optimal density of radial major roads in the city. The property developers seek to determine the intensity of their capital investment in the land market to maximize the net profit generated from the housing supply. The households choose residential locations that maximize their utility within a budget constraint, and the commuters choose the radial major roads that minimize their individual costs of travel between home and workplace. A heuristic solution procedure is developed to find the urban system equilibrium solution. A system optimum model is also proposed to optimize the density of radial major roads that maximizes the social welfare of the urban system. The proposed model can endogenously determine household residential distribution and land values across the city, along with the housing market structure in terms of housing prices and space. Numerical comparative static analyses of congestion pricing and road infrastructure investment (adding a new radial major road) are carried out together with evaluation of the effects of the service level of radial major roads, urban population size, and household income level on the urban economy.     

Housing-choice hindrances and urban spatial structure: Evidence from matched location and location-preference data in Chinese cities

In a monocentric city with a well-functioning residential market, Pareto-efficient spatial equilibrium entails the sorting of residents according to their bid–rent gradient in descending order away from city center. Violation of this sorting condition creates opportunities for Pareto-improving trading of locations and can be sustained only if the market is hindered. We propose a simple ordered-location-choice model using matched location and location-preference data of individual households to examine violations of the Pareto-efficient spatial sorting condition. In so doing we are able to identify population groups facing housing-choice hindrances. We find in a sample of Chinese cities undergoing housing market liberalization that poor marketability of the previously state-provided homes, inadequate provision of housing finance, and spatial mismatch between job-market and housing-market opportunities contribute to a Pareto-inefficient spatial structure.     

The Role of Upstream‐Downstream Competition on Bundling Decisions: Should Regulators Force Firms to Unbundle?

We develop an upstream–downstream model to analyze downstream firms' incentives to bundle. In our framework, the upstream firms are content providers (such as television stations) and the downstream firms are system operators (such as cable/satellite operators). We show that an a la carte regulation (i.e., a regulation that forces downstream firms to unbundle) leads to higher consumer surplus, if the unregulated equilibrium exhibits pure bundling (PB). Hence, our model predicts that in the television industry, which is mainly characterized by PB, an a la carte regulation will be beneficial for the consumers. If, on the other hand, the unregulated equilibrium is characterized by mixed bundling, then an a la carte regulation will increase consumer welfare provided that demand for multiple purchases is strong.     

The performance of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust tests: a Monte Carlo study with an application to the three‐factor Fama–French asset‐pricing model

This paper illustrates the pitfalls of the conventional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) Wald test and the advantages of new HAR tests developed by Kiefer and Vogelsang in 2005 and by Phillips, Sun and Jin in 2003 and 2006. The illustrations use the 1993 Fama–French three‐factor model. The null that the intercepts are zero is tested for 5‐year, 10‐year and longer sub‐periods. The conventional HAR test with asymptotic P‐values rejects the null for most 5‐year and 10‐year sub‐periods. By contrast, the null is not rejected by the new HAR tests. This conflict is explained by showing that inferences based on the conventional HAR test are misleading for the sample sizes used in this application. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real Estate,Public Works,and Political Organization in Winnipeg, 1870–1885

The second half of the 19^th century represented an era of great territorial expansion in almost all the countries of “recent settlement.” In Canada, Winnipeg, the capital of the Province of Manitoba, went from a small hamlet located at the confluence of the Assiniboine and Red Rivers to become the third largest Canadian city at the turn of the century. I argue that the development of a real estate market and the organization of the local political institutions in Winnipeg were interconnected mechanisms that the emerging business elite used to obtain political and economic power during the years of city organization (1870–1885). The disputes over land ownership and the uncertain distribution of land titles among parties related by business and family ties showed how individuals exploited the weakness of the state to secure personal benefits. In this era, old settlers, newcomers, speculators, and business representatives of central Canada and British firms, acting alone or in partnership, attempted to obtain political control of a city in its making and to acquire power and economic benefits through the commodification of urban land. After a period of corruption and mismanagement, a new group organized within the Board of Trade obtained political control of the city and initiated a new cycle of political stability.     

Multivariate volatility forecasts for stock market indices

Volatility forecasts aim to measure future risk and they are key inputs for financial analysis. In this study, we forecast the realized variance as an observable measure of volatility for several major international stock market indices and accounted for the different predictive information present in jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components. We allowed for volatility spillovers in different stock markets by using a multivariate modeling approach. We used heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR)-type models to obtain the forecasts. Based an out-of-sample forecast study, we show that: (i) including option-implied variances in the HAR model substantially improves the forecast accuracy, (ii) lasso-based lag selection methods do not outperform the parsimonious day-week-month lag structure of the HAR model, and (iii) cross-market spillover effects embedded in the multivariate HAR model have long-term forecasting power.     

Housing-choice hindrances and urban spatial structure: Evidence from matched location and location-preference data in Chinese cities

In a monocentric city with a well-functioning residential market, Pareto-efficient spatial equilibrium entails the sorting of residents according to their bid–rent gradient in descending order away from city center. Violation of this sorting condition creates opportunities for Pareto-improving trading of locations and can be sustained only if the market is hindered. We propose a simple ordered-location-choice model using matched location and location-preference data of individual households to examine violations of the Pareto-efficient spatial sorting condition. In so doing we are able to identify population groups facing housing-choice hindrances. We find in a sample of Chinese cities undergoing housing market liberalization that poor marketability of the previously state-provided homes, inadequate provision of housing finance, and spatial mismatch between job-market and housing-market opportunities contribute to a Pareto-inefficient spatial structure.     

Urban search models under high-relocation costs. Theory and application to spatial mismatch

We develop a search-matching model in which mobility costs are so high that it is too costly for workers to relocate when a change in their employment status occurs. We show that, in equilibrium, wages increase with distance to jobs and commuting costs because firms need to compensate the transportation cost difference between the employed and unemployed workers at each location in the city. We also show that the equilibrium land rent is negatively affected by the unemployment benefit because an increase in the latter induce firms to create less jobs, which, in turn, reduces the competition in the land market. We then use this model to provide a mechanism for the observed spatial mismatch between where black workers live and where jobs are. We finally show that a transportation policy consisting in subsidizing the commuting costs of black workers can increase job creation and reduce unemployment if the level of the subsidy is set at a sufficiently high level.     

Equilibrium search unemployment with explicit spatial frictions

Assuming that job search efficiency decreases with distance to jobs, workers' location in a city depends on spatial elements such as commuting costs and land prices and on labour elements such as wages and the matching technology. In the absence of moving costs, we show that there exists a unique equilibrium in which employed and unemployed workers are perfectly segregated but move at each employment transition. We investigate the interactions between the land and the labour market equilibrium and show under which condition they are interdependent. When relocation costs become positive, a new zone appears in which both the employed and the unemployed co-exist and are not mobile. We demonstrate that the size of this area goes continuously to zero when moving costs vanish. Finally, we endogeneize search effort, show that it negatively depends on distance to jobs and that long and short-term unemployed workers coexist and locate in different areas of the city.     

China's Emergent City‐Region Governance: A New Form of State Spatial Selectivity through State‐orchestrated Rescaling

This article examines the emergence of city‐region governance as a specific state spatial selectivity in post‐reform China. The process has been driven by the state in response to the crisis of economic decentralization, and to vicious inter‐city competition and uncoordinated development. As part of the recentralization of state power, the development of urban clusters (chengshiqun) as interconnected city‐regions is now a salient feature of ‘new urbanization' policy. I argue in this article that the Chinese city‐region corresponds to specific logics of scale production. Economic globalization has led to the development of local economies and further created the need to foster ‘regional competitiveness'. To cope with regulatory deficit at the regional level, three mechanisms have been orchestrated by the state: administrative annexation, spatial plan preparation and regional institution building, which reflect recent upscaling in post‐reform governance.     

Market microstructure,banks’ behaviour and interbank spreads: evidence after the crisis

We present a study of the European electronic interbank market of overnight lending (e-MID) before and after the beginning of the financial crisis. The main goal of the paper is to explain the structural changes of lending/borrowing features due to the liquidity turmoil. Unlike previous contributions that focused on banks’ dependent and macro information as explanatory variables, we address the role of banks’ behaviour and market microstructure as determinants of the credit spreads. We show that all banks experienced significant variations in their liquidity costs due to the sensitivity of interbank rates to the timing and side of trades. We argue that, while larger banks did experience better funding conditions after the crisis, this was not just a consequence of the “too big to fail” perception of the market. Larger banks have been able to play more strategically when managing their liquidity by taking advantage of the changing market microstructure.

     

Spatial equilibrium with local public goods: Urban land rent,optimal city size and the Tiebout hypothesis

This paper extends the standard model of urban land rent to consider the spatial equilibrium conditions in a local public goods market as hypothesized by Charles M. Tiebout. An analysis is made of the spatial dimensions of public goods, their degree of ‘localness’ and their impact on land values. It is shown that the optimal population size of the community (Tiebout's sixth assumption) is simultaneously derived with the optimal supply of local public goods and local taxes. It is also shown that land rent is a poor output indicator of Tiebout's equilibrium conditions and that the capitalization assumption is not the appropriate test for his hypothesis.     

Constrained inefficiency of competitive entrepreneurship

We study the constrained efficiency of a competitive entrepreneurship model that features the occupation choice between entrepreneurs and workers. It is shown that, even when (1) the only friction is uninsurable entrepreneurial risks and (2) agents are risk-averse, the competitive market can generate too many entrepreneurs. We present a sufficient statistic that determines the constrained inefficiency and its direction (whether market generates too many entrepreneurs or too few) by exploiting the unique feature of the model where the equilibrium is characterized by an indifference condition instead of a marginal condition. The framework is also pedagogically useful to understand constrained efficiency analysis at intuitive level.     

A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries

In this paper we propose a flexible model to describe nonlinearities and long-range dependence in time series dynamics. The new model is a multiple regime smooth transition extension of the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model, which is specifically designed to model the behavior of the volatility inherent in financial time series. The model is able to simultaneously approximate long memory behavior, as well as describe sign and size asymmetries. A sequence of tests is developed to determine the number of regimes, and an estimation and testing procedure is presented. Monte Carlo simulations evaluate the finite-sample properties of the proposed tests and estimation procedures. We apply the model to several Dow Jones Industrial Average index stocks using transaction level data from the Trades and Quotes database that covers ten years of data. We find strong support for long memory and both sign and size asymmetries. Furthermore, the new model, when combined with the linear HAR model, is viable and flexible for purposes of forecasting volatility.     

Does City Structure Affect Job Search and Welfare?

We develop a model in which workers' search efficiency is negatively affected by access to jobs. Workers' location in a city is endogenous and reflects a trade-off between commuting costs and the surplus associated with search. Different configurations emerge in equilibrium; notably, the unemployed workers may reside far away (segregated city) or close to jobs (integrated city). We prove that there exists a unique and stable market equilibrium in which both land and labor markets are solved for simultaneously. We find that, despite inefficient search in the segregated city equilibrium, the welfare difference between the two equilibria is not so large due to differences in commuting costs. We also show how a social planner can manipulate wages by subsidizing/taxing the transport costs and can accordingly restore the efficiency.     

The role of oil futures intraday information on predicting US stock market volatility

This study investigates the role of oil futures price information on forecasting the US stock market volatility using the HAR framework. In-sample results indicate that oil futures intraday information is helpful to increase the predictability. Moreover, compared to the benchmark model, the proposed models improve their predictive ability with the help of oil futures realized volatility. In particular, the multivariate HAR model outperforms the univariate model. Accordingly, considering the contemporaneous connection is useful to predict the US stock market volatility. Furthermore, these findings are consistent across a variety of robust checks.