Focusing effect and the poverty trap

I build a dynamic consumption-savings model in which agents׳ choices are distorted by the focusing effect: agents overweight the utility of goods in which their options differ more. I show that the consumption-savings choice depends both on the marginal return on savings and on the total return on savings, implying that the incentive to save may increase with the initial level of wealth. As a consequence, a salience-based poverty trap may exist when the marginal return on savings is sufficiently high and sufficiently flat. I also consider the case of a perfect credit market and show that a poverty trap may emerge when the salience of consumption is bounded above. I discuss policy implications. In particular, imposing upon an agent a punishment for decreasing savings below a threshold leads to a higher level of savings, even when the threshold triggering the punishment is not binding     

Knightian uncertainty and poverty trap in a model of economic growth

This paper explores how Knightian uncertainty affects dynamic properties in an economic growth model. The decision-making theory employed in the analysis is the theory of expected utility under a non-additive probability measure, i.e., the Choquet expected utility model of preference. We apply this decision-making theory to an overlapping generations model where producers face “uncertainty” in their technologies. When the producer is averse to uncertainty, the firm's profit function may not be differentiable. Therefore, the firm's decision to invest and hire labor becomes rigid for a certain measurable range of real interest rates. In dynamic equilibrium, the existence of firm-level rigidity causes discontinuity in the wage function; this makes multiple equilibria the more likely outcomes under the log utility and Cobb–Douglas production functions. In this paper, we show that even if aversion to uncertainty is small, the “poverty trap” can arise for a wide range of parameter values.     

Migration and rural poverty in China

We analyze two complementary household datasets from China's poor areas to examine whether the poor migrate and whether migration helps the poor. We find an inverted-U-shaped relationship between household endowments and the likelihood of migration. Over time, the poor are more likely to migrate. Using household panel data and taking prior village migration networks as an instrument, we find that having a migrant increases a household's income per capita by 8.5 to 13.1 percent, but that the overall impact on poverty is modest because most poor people do not migrate. Migrants remit a large share of their income and the amount of these remittances is responsive somewhat to the needs of other family members. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 688–709.     

Growth and poverty in developing countries

Despite the developing countries' impressive aggregate growth of the past 25 years, its benefits have only reached the poor to a very limited degree. Not only have the poorest countries grown relatively slowly, but growth processes are such that within most developing countries, the incomes of the poor increase much less than the average. Although many policies have been proposed to counter these trends, little has been done to estimate the possibilities for significantly reducing world poverty within a reasonable period. This paper develops a quantitative framework to project levels of poverty under different assumptions about GNP growth population growth and changes in income distribution. Although the interactions among development processes and policy instruments are not modelled in any detail, the results serve to clarify the nature of the problem. The policy simulations demonstrate that the elimination of absolute poverty by the end of this century is a highly unlikely prospect; even to achieve a substantial reduction will require a combination of policies designed to accelerate the growth of poor countries, to distribute the benefits of growth more equitably, and to reduce population increase.     

The approach to transforming the traditional agricultural economy: a research on the multiple paths of poverty alleviation and transformation in rural China

Transforming a traditional agricultural economy into a modern economy is one of the main themes in economic development. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper finds out that the key to transformation is to raise the economic value of people, to improve human capital investment and to match the stocks of physical and human capital. China’s rural economy is on the edge of economic take-off, and different zones may pursue different paths for transformation. The source of rural poverty is not the scarcity of income or consumption, but the deficiency of education, social security, medical care and economic opportunity, which we define as “capability poverty”. __________ Translated from The Journal of World Economy (世界经济), 2005,(2) (in Chinese)     

Institutionalized monopsonistic capital markets in a developing economy

This paper presents a plausible story on capital market imperfections and fits it in a Pasinetti-style growth model. The first object is to show that, in a developing economy, credit rationing may well be explained by the institutionalized monopsonistic capital market. The second object is to amplify the intimate relationship between real and monetary phenomena by presenting a simple conceptual framework to link the financial sector and the real sector via workers' demand for monetary assets and entrepreneurs' capital formation. The foremost emphasis is given to the fact that entrepreneurs and workers do not have the same ability and opportunity to invest their saved income.     

Foreign exchange market regularities in a developing economy

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the ‘empirical regularities’ observed for exchange rates in the major foreign exchange markets apply equally to the case of a developing economy such as Singapore.     

Determinants of wage stickiness in a developing economy

We explore wage flexibility in a developing country and compare our results to what has been found in similar studies using European data. In particular, we conduct a survey of 1189 firms in Pakistan to analyze the determinants of wage rigidity. We find that the existence of competitive wages and an interaction with the informal economy are statistically significant determinants of wage stickiness. While the role of competitive wages is similar to what has been found in studies of European firms, the latter find a much larger role for turnover, collective bargaining and employment protection. In contrast, in Pakistan we find that firms hiring from the informal sector are significantly more flexible in changing their wages. This suggests that the informal sector adds to the wage flexibility of the formal sector.     

Liberalization and tax amnesty in a developing economy

We show that tax evaders can respond to a tax amnesty, even if enforcement activities do not change, if it is timed to coincide with liberalization and rising incomes. The success of the amnesty, in terms of its effect on tax revenue and welfare, depends on the distribution of the gains from liberalization. Our analysis provides a theoretical justification of the link between successful amnesties and economic liberalization and points to factors that a policy maker should consider for success of future amnesties.     

Overcoming digital poverty traps in rural Asia

The rapid spread of information and communication technology (ICT) in Asia offers the promise of a “digital revolution” for agriculture. But realizing such gains will depend on overcoming digital poverty traps, whereby significant numbers of poor smallholders inhabiting remote regions are unable to take advantage of the benefits of ICT for agriculture and thus remain mired in poverty. This phenomenon is illustrated in a model of a poor household located in a remote region that cannot accumulate sufficient ICT skills. To avoid such outcomes, policies need to be targeted at both the lack of access by smallholders to ICT for farming and their insufficient skills to use the new technologies. Increased public investments to extend “last-mile infrastructure” in digital services are necessary but not sufficient. Complementary investments in developing rural infrastructure, appropriate ICT business models and services, and improvement of the digital literacy of smallholders are also essential.     

Financial development and poverty in developing countries: a causal analysis

This article empirically examines the possible causal links between financial development and poverty in developing countries. To this end, we apply a modified form of traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short times series that are available. We conclude that the evidence supports the hypothesis that in the period of the 1970s–1980s financial development, measured by liquid assets of the financial system as a share of GDP or by money and quasi money as a percentage of GDP, leads to the reduction of moderate poverty. These results do not appear for the period of the 1980s–1990s or when financial development is measured by the ratio of the value of credits granted by financial intermediaries to the private sector to GDP, whereas they seem to be strengthened by using summary measures of financial development. Likewise, our analysis does not show any evidence of Granger causality from poverty to financial development.     

Financial reform and stabilization policy in a developing economy

Despite the long-run efficiency benefits that can be generated by a financial reform program, the authorities in developing countries are often reluctant to enact the required reforms because they fear that these programs will create short-run difficulties for important segments of the financial system. This paper argues that many of these difficulties can be avoided if financial reform is integrated with stabilization policy. The analysis focuses on the specific problem of how to remove nominal interest rate ceilings when complete interest rate decontrolwould lead to widespread bankruptcies amongst the firms in a major segment of the financial system. The optimal combination of stabilization policy and financial reform is shown to involve a mix of discrete and gradual changes in the rate of monetary growth and ceiling lending and depocit rates under either adaptive or rational expectations.     

A middle income trap in a small open economy: Modeling the Argentinean case

This paper presents a model of the conditions that may lead a small open economy towards a middle income trap. This situation has shown to be pervasive in Latin America. As Argentina is a salient instance of this phenomenon, we develop a stylized model of its economy at the first decades of the XXth century. It consists of a general equilibrium model of an open emerging economy, which is a price-taking primary goods exporter. A growth process is triggered by an increase of commodity prices, due to an upward jump of the world demand of these goods. The economy goes through several phases of growth, starting from a subsistence stage. Once decreasing returns set in, the economy reaches a steady state. Only a sustained high demand of its export products allows the economy to thrive. Otherwise, the economy gets entrapped in a middle income level.     

Measuring the poverty reduction potential of land in rural Mexico

To help inform the current debate on the role of land as an instrument for poverty reduction, we analyze the conditions under which access to land reduces poverty in Mexican rural communities. Semi-parametric regression results show that access to even a small plot of land can raise household welfare significantly. For smallholders, an additional hectare of land increases welfare on average by 1.3 times the earnings of an agricultural worker. In addition, the marginal welfare value of land depends importantly on a household's control over complementary assets such as education and on the context where assets are used such as road access.     

贫困陷阱的微观机制与实证研究述评

近年来,一批发展经济学家在吸收早期贫困陷阱理论合理内核的基础上,借助现代经济学新的理论与方法,将贫困陷阱问题的研究从宏观层面推进到微观层次、从抽象的理论阐释推进到精细的实证分析,并在此过程中拓展了贫困陷阱问题的研究范围。本文以述论结合的方式梳理这一研究领域的新进展,并在发展经济学学科发展史的视野中审视贫困陷阱理论、展望进一步的研究方向。     

Fiscal policy and the structure of production in a two-sector developing economy

This paper develops a two-sector model of a developing economy and examines the role of the informal sector in limiting the government's ability to increase tax revenues. A key feature is the introduction of auditing of the informal sector and degree of tax enforcement in that sector. We emphasize the interdependence between tax policy and enforcement in achieving a developing economy's fiscal objectives and show that by judicious policy choices the presence of the informal sector need not hinder its ability to raise tax revenues. We supplement the formal analysis with numerical simulations highlighting the contrasting intertemporal tradeoffs implied by higher tax rates and tax-enforcement levels.     

Dynamic environmental policy in developing countries with a dual economy

We analyze a dynamic model of environmental policy in a stylized developing country (DC) with a dual economy. This DC's economy is distorted in part because the government subsidizes the exports of the nonpolluting sector of the economy. We analyze the employment and output effects of three different pollution taxes. These taxes incorporate alternate assumptions about the DC government's ability to commit to its announced course of action. We describe the taxes, we examine the dependence of these taxes on the extant distortion, and we stipulate the conditions which call for an activist policy, irrespective of the length of time to which the government can commit to its announced policy. Inter alia, our analysis shows why some DC governments may not be serious about environmental protection.     

Consumption and communication perspectives of IT in a developing economy

Technological innovations are important sources of competitive advantage when there is a balanced rate of adoption that helps organisations maintain or improve performance levels. This paper synthesises and builds on efforts to conceptualise the adoption and implementation of technologically induced customer services in developing countries. Its point of departure is recent advances in computer-mediated marketing environments (CMMEs). It assesses relationships between customer services and evolving technologies in the provision of services in the banking sector. Using phenomenological hermeneutics and a case study approach, we iteratively engaged with data that emerged to identify core values and community-based values. These facets were further developed into seven main issues (core values: quality, education and reach, and community-based values: efficiency, usability, control and security). The paper offers practical steps by which companies and institutions may counter these issues and the theoretical implications for wider considerations are discussed.     

Downsizing, wage inequality and welfare in a developing economy

This paper focuses on the cost cutting effects of firm downsizing in a developing economy. Using a dualistic production structure to depict a developing economy, the impacts of downsizing on wage inequality and social welfare are examined. Downsizing is revealed to not only narrow the wage gap between skilled and unskilled labor but also to raise the level of manufactured output and reduce the unemployment ratio in the urban sector. These effects improve the social welfare of the economy.