Keynes’s view of deficits and functional finance: a Modern Monetary Theory perspective

Abstract

The immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis (GFC) was characterised by a resurgence of interest in the work of Keynes. Fiscal policy became at least temporarily acceptable again, in turn leading to government deficits and debt, as a proportion of GDP, reaching levels not seen since before the onset of the neoliberal period. Keynes’s own pronouncements on deficit financing generated renewed interest. Despite the strength of the neoclassical counterattack – which has been relatively successful in reassessing the crisis as a government failure – confidence in orthodox economics has not been fully restored, at least outside the confines of academia. Although the hopes of heterodox economists – that the GFC might mark the beginning of the end of the neoclassical hegemony – have not been realised, the upswing in interest in Keynes’s views has not entirely died away. This paper considers Keynes’s views of deficits and debt and then looks at the controversial area of Keynes’s position vis-à-vis functional finance. The paper concludes by considering how Modern Monetary Theory might increase our understanding of the nature of deficits and debt and thus provide valuable insights which might underpin the use of fiscal policy to pursue public purpose.     

Legal rules as a source of comparative advantage: A case study of telecommunication equipment interconnection

Legal rules governing the interconnection of customer-premises equipment (CPE) to the telephone network have economic implications for both producers and users of such equipment. The United States instituted a free-interconnection policy between 1968 and 1976; Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom adopted similar policies in the 1980s. A free-interconnection policy can impose costs on domestic producers as a result of increased competition among both foreign and domestic producers, but it can also provide benefits to domestic users who gain access to the world market in CPE. Interconnection rules can therefore provide a comparative advantage to countries that adopt the most favorable policy.It is shown here that free interconnection has been a favorable policy for the United States. Costs to domestic CPE producers have been small, and benefits to large users appear to have been large, both in terms of increased product diversity and in terms of price and quality of established products. The movement toward free interconnection in other countries appears to be based on the favorable experience in the countries that have already made this change.This CPE example suggests a generalization that can be expressed in terms of the “market for regulation” concept. It is suggested that an equilibrium in this market occurs at the point of maximum benefits minus costs, as experienced by the participants in this market. This equilibrium is a “rule equilibrium.” In the case of CPE, the old equilibrium was at the no interconnection point while the new equilibrium is at the free interconnection point toward which the world is presently moving.     

Monetary and real shocks in a monetary Union: The Swiss case

We analyze to what extent real and monetary shocks affect price levels and real exchange rates in seven Swiss regions. A structural time series model is set up and estimated using the Kalman filter under two assumptions on the persistence of monetary shocks. We find that the variability of changes in price levels is mainly due to real shocks. The variance of monetary shocks is small but the monetary component of inflation differences across regions differs from zero with some persistence. As the Swiss case shows this does not seem to be a major obstacle to forming a monetary union.We thank Ernst Baltensperger, Tobias Rötheli, and participants at the Econometric Society European Meeting 1994 for stimulating discussions. The paper has also benefitted from constructive comments of two anonymous referees. Both authors gratefully acknowledge financial support provided by the Swiss National Foundation through Grants no: 8210-040206 (T.J.) and 12-40498.94 (C.L.).     

Innovation and finance: a stock flow consistent analysis of great surges of development

The present work aims at contributing to the recent stream of literature which attempts to link the Neo-Schumpeterian/Evolutionary and the Post-Keynesian theory. The paper adopts the Post-Keynesian Stock Flow Consistent modeling approach to analyze the process of development triggered by the emergence of a new-innovative productive sector into the economic system. The model depicts a multi-sectorial economy composed of consumption and capital goods industries, a banking sector and two households sectors: capitalists and wage earners. Furthermore, it provides an explicit representation of the stock market. In line with the Schumpeterian tradition, our work highlights the cyclical nature of the development process and stresses the relevance of the finance-innovation nexus, analyzing the feed-back effects between the real and financial sides of the economic system. In this way we aim at setting the basis of a comprehensive and coherent framework to study the relationship between technological change, demand and finance along the structural change process triggered by technological innovation.     

Development as leapfrogging,not convergence,not catch-up: towards schumpeterian theories of finance and development

Our aim is to demark a pathway towards Schumpeterian theories of finance and development. To do this, we offer four basic propositions for discussion. First, we suggest that ‘convergence’ and ‘catch-up’ are, from a Schumpeterian perspective, theoretically inadequate concepts as they frame development narratives similarly to the Rostovian idea of a linear path towards some sort of ‘equilibrium imposed on history’. Leapfrogging by means of innovation and finance is put forward as a better approach to analyzing development trajectories. Second, we contend that rather than the often-assumed convergence among nations, history shows that ‘divergence’ is a more common result of development trajectories; this is especially visible in the last half a century. Third, we outline the key features of this Schumpeterian framework, centered on the concept of leapfrogging through innovation and finance. We conclude by highlighting the essential roles of finance and financial governance within this alternative framework for understanding successful development trajectories, and posit that this construct may be labeled a Schumpeterian entrepreneurial state.     

浅析金融业推动农村经济发展

作为农业大国＂,三农＂问题是我国经济发展的关键,金融业必须参与支持＂三农＂发展。通过对金融业支农的现状分析,指出当前仍然存在的问题,在此基础上,提出一系列解决措施与方法。     

Money as a Generic Particular: Marx and Simmel on the Structure of Monetary Denominations

ABSTRACT

This article is concerned with the structure of monetary denominations of economic value. Marx and Simmel analyze this structure by means of references to objects of mere catallactic validity. These objects are ontologically atypical insofar as they are particulars of the genus commodity. Understanding money through generic particulars elucidates the conceptual link between money as a unit of account and money as a means of payment. This initially perplexing idea captures a fundamental characteristic of money without committing to either a commodity theory or a claim theory of money. A modification of the notion ‘commodity’ allows for a conception of money as a generic particular that is consistent with contemporary accounts of money as abstract purchasing power residing in different forms of liabilities and claims denominated in a common quantitative scale.     

Inflation Targeting as a Framework for Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Analysis

This study makes use of a dynamic Taylor‐type model to examine the conduct of monetary policy by central banks that profess to engage in inflation targeting. Previous research regarding inflation targeting and Taylor‐type rules is reviewed and a dynamic Taylor‐type model is developed. Tests for regime shifts upon the adoption of inflation targeting indicate a significant change in policy in each of the nations in the study for which sufficient data were available. Next, the central bank reaction functions were estimated. Results suggest that most of the central banks conducted a policy of inflation targeting by seeking to contain inflationary pressures rather than reacting to current inflation.     

Monetary Stabilisation Policy in a Monetary Union: Some Simple Analytics

We do two things in this paper. First, we look at some simple models of monetary decision making in a monetary union and ask how much more variable a country's output and inflation is likely to be if it joins the union. We answer this analytically and then go on to 'calibrate' the simple model. The model has few structural equations, but it is useful in allowing us to examine how the variability of output and inflation are likely to change as key parameters change. Our conclusions on this front are likely to be sensitive to model specification. However, we also identify a second best issue concerning the optimal make–up of the monetary union which is likely to be more robust: namely that only when all members of the union have the same structural parameter values (and shocks are perfectly correlated) will it be optimal for a new member to have these same structural parameter values.     

Monetary dynamics: a market approach

The behaviour of the short-run responses implied by the identification of a long-run money demand relationship is examined. These responses have recently been interpreted as representing the policy stance of the monetary authority. However, as movements in the monetary aggregate reflect both demand and supply adjustments, estimating the short-run dynamics solely within the money demand relationship may produce biased results. In order to address this issue, the paper explicitly acknowledges the importance of the supply of money function by including the function alongside the demand for money function. While the interaction of the two equations continues to produce the long-run quantity theory result, the additional detail provides more accurate estimates of the individual short-run adjustments within the two equations.     

Money as an Institution of Capitalism: Some Notes on a Monetary Theory of Uncertainty

Dillard notes that to consider money as an institution of capitalism means to emphasize that money is an essential element in explaining fluctuations in income and employment. He states that Keynes's liquidity preference theory offers a sound explanation of money as an institution of capitalism. Keynes's explanation is based on a necessary condition, independent of money: the presence of uncertainty. The objective of the paper is to elaborate a different explanation of the role of money, based on Keynes's 1933 and 1937–39 works, according to which the presence of money constitutes the necessary condition to justify the importance of uncertainty.     

Public finance,government spending and economic growth: the case of local governments in Brazil

The impact of local government spending on output growth is estimated using a panel of Brazilian municipalities during 1985–1994. Attention is focused on three expenditure categories, housing/urbanization, health/sanitation, and transport services, which are expected to be growth-enhancing, and their sources of finance (local taxes, intergovernmental transfers, and borrowing). The determinants of these spending categories are also examined. The size of the municipality, measured by the resident population, is shown to affect government spending nonlinearly. This is a contribution to the recent empirical literature on the linkages between decentralized government spending, public finances, and economic growth at the local, rather than national, level.     

科学发展观视阈中财政经济健康发展的路径选择

“以人为本”既是科学发展观的核心价值诉求,也是当代中国财政经济健康发展的价值标尺。在科学发展现的视阈中来审视推动财政经济健康发展的路径选择,有着重要的时代意义。     

金融危机对中国外贸发展的考验

金融危机对全球经济的影响已经在各国经济下滑的态势中得到了具体的体现。但金融危机发生之后,各国对自由贸易体制的态度的转变以及所采取的诸如贸易保护主义的种种措施不得不引起注意,在目前全球经济形势出现好转迹象的形势下,各国要充分挖掘自由贸易体制下各国对外贸易发展的优势,更应该让贸易保护主义国家认识到贸易保护措施为其带来的短期经济增长以及为此所要付出的长期对外贸易发展受阻的沉重代价。     

扩张性货币政策批判:货币政策传导机制的无效性

西方经济学所说货币政策传导机制,包括利率渠道、资产价格渠道即利率渠道基础上的投资效应和财富效应、信贷渠道、汇率渠道等,在积极的或扩张性货币政策方面都是难以奏效的。扩张性货币政策的短期效果也难以证实,而且推动通胀、加剧过剩、浪费资源、加剧分化,损害长远经济发展,在长期中是负效应而不是中性。正确的货币政策原则只能是适应性的。