Innovation and industrial renewal in Sweden, 1970–2007

This study explores the question of whether the Swedish innovation output of the 1970s and 1980s (and the following decades) indicates structural lock-in or renewal. It is motivated by inconsistent explanations in the current literature about the relation between the economic slowdown and subsequent industrial renewal, as well as a lack of research focusing, in this context, on the primary driver of economic growth and structural change: innovation. By observing the number and type of innovations as they hit the market, the data in this paper tell a real time story about micro level innovation activity during the time that the economic crisis unfolds. The analysis considers Swedish innovation output between 1970 and 2007, characterising the number of significant innovations, their novelty, and their origin (including size of firm and industry sector). Three central findings emerge, defined by both the time period and the character of innovations. First, the magnitude of innovation activity peaks in the late 1970s to early 1980s. Second, starting in the late 1970s, small firms begin to outperform large firms in terms of both innovation quantity and quality (i.e. world market novelties). Third, the 1980s saw a distinct shift in the industrial origin of innovations, with software and telecom becoming the leaders in innovation output. The findings suggest that the observed industrial renewal is more nuanced than what has emerged from previous research.     

Between Malthus and the industrial take-off: regional inequality in Sweden, 1571–1850

The causes and extent of regional inequality in the process of economic growth are at the core of historical economic research. So far, much attention has been devoted to studying the role of industrialization in driving regional divergence. However, empirical studies on relatively unequal countries such as Italy and Spain show that inequality was already high at the outset of modern industrialization. Using new estimates of Swedish regional GDP, this article looks for the first time at regional inequality in a pre-industrial European economy. Its findings show that inequality increased dramatically between 1571 and 1750 and stayed high until the mid-nineteenth century. This result refutes the classical view that the industrial take-off was the main driver of regional divergence. Decomposing the Theil index for GDP per worker, we find that the bulk of inequality from 1750 onwards was driven by structural differences across sectors rather than different regional productivity within sectors. We show that counties with higher agricultural productivity followed a classic Malthusian pattern when experiencing technological advancement, while those with higher industrial productivity did not. We suggest that institutional factors, such as the creation of the Swedish Empire, Stockholm's trading rights, and a protective industrial policy, amplified this exceptional pattern.     

Internal migration and industrialization in Finland, 1878–1939

Abstract

For the economic historian the statistics of population are quite as important as those of trade. To understand the economic development of a country it is necessary to have some knowledge I: 0 of the distribution of population at different periods, 2:0 of what changes have been effected by migration, and also 3 : 0 of the forces influencing migration. The analysis of these forces helps, moreover, to illuminate the nature of man's economic behaviour.     

Monthly industrial output in China 1980–2012

Monthly economic indicators are used for a variety of purposes, from studying business cycles to determining economic policy and making informed business decisions. China's published monthly industrial output statistics could hardly be more confusing, with changes in variables, in coverage, in measurement, and in presentation. This paper reviews the available official data and proceeds to construct a monthly industrial output series in nominal terms and in real terms for the period 1980–2012, economy-wide and for the public sector.     

Tariff protection in Sweden, 1885–1914

Abstract

The Swedish finance company crisis was a kind of “run” that happened in September, 1990. It marked the beginning of the Swedish banking crisis of the early 1990s. The crisis was initially focused on the finance company Nyckeln. The specific negative information about Nyckeln is identified, and so is the extreme lateness with which it reached, if at all, the supervisory authority and the banks that were involved in lending to the finance companies. The paper then inquires whether there were warning signs of the forthcoming crisis in capital market and other public information, by means of the usual event study methodology. The data employed include indices for the banking industry and the real estate and construction industry, and share prices and trading volume for finance companies. The conclusion is that the crisis really came as a surprise, with very little advance warning.     

Migration,marriage and social mobility: Women in Sweden 1880–1900

We study the intergenerational social mobility of women by looking at how migration was associated with socioeconomic marriage mobility using complete-count census data for Sweden. The censuses 1880–1900 have been linked at the individual level, enabling us to follow almost 100,000 women from their parental home to their new marital household. Marriage market imbalances were not an important push factor for migration but we find a strong association between migration distance and marriage outcomes, both in terms of overall marriage probabilities and in terms of partner selection by SES. These results highlight the importance of migration for women's intergenerational social mobility during industrialization.     

Men at work. Wages and industriousness in southern Sweden 1500–1850

ABSTRACT

In his classic works on the industrious revolution, Jan de Vries argues that demand for new consumer goods trigged eighteenth century Europeans to work more. This implies that industrious behaviour and new consumption patterns were two parallel and interdependent processes that preceded the industrial revolution. However, there is an alternative explanation for any increase in labour output on household level, namely that the labourers were forced to work more to meet ends. An indication of this could be that day labourers’ relative wages decreased over time. In this article, we investigate this by studying wages from annual and casual labour in southern Sweden and compare their levels with consumption baskets.     

Inflation,expectations and qualitative government policy in Ecuador, 1970–1982

A model of constrained money demand for a dominated domestic currency is specified. It is found that the model traces the evolution of the course of inflation when applied to the experience of Ecuador and provides an interpretation for the differing statistical relationship between money and prices during the estimation period.     

Energy and machines. Energy capital ratios in Europe and Latin America. 1875–1970

The relationship between energy and capital is one of the most important aspects of modern economic growth. Machines need energy to produce all the goods we enjoy; energy would be far less useful for humankind in absence of machines. However, the great majority of the economic models do not take into account the elasticities of substitution (or complementaries) between these two main variables. Actually, energy is absent in many growth models and discussions on diverging economic development paths. We approach this relevant issue from a new perspective: energy and capital relations during 100 years. We use the latest estimations of capital stock (machinery and equipment) and energy consumption for Latin America and compare them with those of Western Europe. The energy–capital ratio (how much energy is used per unit of capital) could be a predictor of economic growth, thus providing stylised facts about the timing and causes of the different modernisation patterns of these regions and showing us some answers on the long-run relationship between energy consumption and capital accumulation.     

Demographic trends in late-slavery Jamaica, 1817–32

Early nineteenth-century demographic trends on sugar estates in Jamaica, the most important British Caribbean colony, are examined through the 1817–32 public slave registers. We seek evidence regarding the background to the island's 1831–2 popular insurrection, the immediate cause of the London parliament's vote in 1833 to abolish colonial slavery. Some historians argue that the revolt occurred as ‘political’ effect from a sudden upsurge of metropolitan anti-slavery activism in 1830–1. They believe the uprising broke out despite improvement in enslaved people's material welfare, favoured by many slaveholders to secure population increase after the closure of the British transatlantic slave trade in 1808. Alternative ‘economic’ assessments judge that increasing workloads had been aggravating popular unrest before the revolt. Commercial pressures, and the imminent likelihood of emancipation, allegedly outweighed welfare concerns. The excess of slave deaths over births widened between 1817 and 1832. However, the registers show that demographic deficits resulted mainly from the ageing of the last Africa-born cohorts. Jamaica-born enslaved people became self-reproducing. There was no general pre-1831 regime deterioration. Most slaveholders sought to maintain their Jamaican assets for the long term through pro-natalist measures, and did not expect emancipation. The revolt's causes were thus more ‘political’ than ‘economic’.     

The banks and the financing of industry in Sweden,c. 1900–1927

Abstract

In the recently published third volume of Fagerstabrukens Historic, Professor E. F. Söderlund has given a detailed and penetrating account of the formation in 1927 of the Fagersta concern, resulting from the amalgamation of five leading Swedish iron works. ¹ Cf. Professor B. Boëthius' article above. pp. 174. His analysis offers a most useful background for a discussion of certain general problems of industrial finance and ownership, and of banking, in Sweden during the First World War and the 1920s. To provide such a discussion is the purpose of this article, and to that end it will be necessary to summarise Professor Söderlund's narrative. As, however, the story is in all essential respects the same for each of the works, a brief resume of the main facts in the history of one of them, Fagersta Bruk, will suffice.     

Structural changes in Brazil's industrial economy, 1960–1980

This paper examines the structural changes in Brazil's economy which can be observed through various censuses and input-output tables in the period 1960 to 1980. The paper shows how the country's economy became more vertically integrated in those years, even though it has become more outward-oriented since the early days of import-substitution. It also considers the relations between the distribution of income and economic structure, both at present and in a possible future situation of redistribution.     

South African trends in medical aid coverage and stated healthcare-seeking preferences: 2004–14

Using population-weighted general household surveys (GHS) covering the years 2004–14, this study examines trends in medical aid coverage and healthcare facility utilisation across a spectrum of socio-demographic variables. As there are few obvious patterns in the raw health variables' time series, the analysis relies upon both parametric and nonparametric regression analysis to smooth the time series in order to outline a few general trends. Over time, medical aid coverage and the general population's ‘preference’ for public health care decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% per year, respectively. Moreover, the probability that an individual, who is covered by a medical aid scheme, states their willingness to use public health care decreased by 44%.     

Gendered trends in poverty in the post-apartheid period, 1997–2006

This study investigates whether trends in the extent and depth of poverty in South Africa over the past decade have been gendered. We examine whether females are more likely to live in poor households than males and whether this has changed over time, and how poverty has changed for female-headed and male-headed households. We use data from the 1997 and 1999 October Household Surveys and the 2004 and 2006 General Household Surveys, which have the advantage of collecting information on the individual receipt of social grant income. We find that although poverty rates have fallen for both males and females, and for male-headed and female-headed households, the decline has been larger for males and for male-headed households. Gender differences in poverty rates have therefore widened over the period. We show that these findings are robust to the possible underestimation of household income and to adjustments for household composition.     

Wage growth and inequality in urban China: 1988–2013

We investigate the evolution of wage levels, wage inequality, and wage determinants among urban residents in China using China Household Income Project data from 1988, 1995, 2002, 2007, and 2013.Average wage grew impressively between each pair of years. Wage inequality had long been on the increase, but between 2007 and 2013 no clear changes occurred. In 1988, age and wages were positively related throughout working life, but more recently older workers' wages have been lower than those of middle-aged workers. The relationship between education and wages was weak in 1988 but strengthened rapidly thereafter—a process that came to a halt in 2007.During the period in which China was a planned economy the gender wage gap was small in urban China, but it widened rapidly between 1995 and 2007. We also report the existence of a premium for being employed in a foreign-owned firm or in the state sector.     

Human capital accumulation in emerging Asia, 1970–2030

Emerging Asian economies have made strong progress in improving educational capital in the past 40 years. High educational attainment, especially at the secondary level, has significantly improved emerging Asia's educational achievement. Regressions show that better parental education and income, lower income inequality, declining fertility, and higher public educational expenditures account for higher educational enrollment. But Asia's average years of schooling are forecast to increase to 7.6 years by 2030, from 7.0, significantly slower than the increase of 4.1 years from 1970 to 2010. That would put emerging Asia's educational capital in 2030 at only the 1970 level of the advanced countries, or still 3.5 years behind the level of advanced countries in 2010. For sustained human development, Asian economies must invest in improving educational quality and raising enrollment rates at the secondary and tertiary levels.     

Development and application evaluation of industrial common technology in Liaoning

This paper focuses on the theories and studies related to industrial common technology. Adopting Hall＇s 3-D structure analysis tool in systematic engineering and taking the regional economic characteristics of Liaoning Province in China into consideration, this paper carries out deep studies on the feasibility of the development and application evaluation of the industrial common technology in Liaoning Province of China, provides reference information for the development of Liaoning regional industrial common technology studies and makes its modest contributions to the regional economic development of the province.     

Current trends in Germany’s social policy in employment and unemployment

This paper deals with problems of the institutional crisis in employment policy and consequences of institutional reforms of P. Hartz in 2003–2005 in Germany, which affected the labor market and the social state. It has been shown that the reforms resulted in the radical restructuring of employment and unemployment and that, for all positive results of Hartz reforms, the problem of long-term unemployment and development of the informal employment sector still persists, which raises the question of reforming the professional training of highly qualified personnel.