Optimal dividend policy and growth option

We analyse the interaction between the dividend policy and the decision on investment in a growth opportunity of a liquidity constrained firm. This leads us to study a mixed singular control/optimal stopping problem for a diffusion that we solve quasi-explicitly by establishing a connection with an optimal stopping problem. We characterize situations where it is optimal to postpone the distribution of dividends in order to invest at a subsequent date in the growth opportunity. We show that uncertainty and liquidity shocks have an ambiguous effect on the investment decision.      

On Forest Rotation under Interest Rate Variability

The current literature on optimal forest rotation makes the unrealistic assumption of a constant interest rate although harvesting decisions of forest stands are typically subject to relatively long time horizons. We apply the single rotation framework to extend the existing studies to cover the unexplored case of variable interest rate. We show that even in the deterministic case if the current interest rate deviates from its long-run steady state, interest rate variability may change the rotation age significantly when compared with the constant discounting case. Further, and importantly, allowing for interest rate uncertainty as a mean reverting process and forest value as a geometric Brownian motion, we can provide an explicit solution for the two dimensional path-dependent optimal stopping problem. Increased interest rate volatility is shown to lengthen the optimal rotation period. Numerical calculations show that interest rate volatility has a large quantitative importance.     

A Continuous Time Model to Price Commodity-Based Swing Options

On the commodity market there exist contracts which give the holder multiple opportunities to adjust delivery of the underlying commodity. These contracts are often named “Swing” or “take-or-pay” options. They are especially common on the electricity market.In this paper the price of a Swing option on commodities is investigated under the additional constraint of a recovery time between two different exercise times. We give an explicit characterization of the price function as the value function of a continuous stochastic impulse control problem and prove existence of an optimal control. We investigate the connection between the price function and the solution of a system of quasi-variational inequalities. Finally, we present a numerical algorithm for solving the quasi-variational inequalities, and give some numerical examples.JEL Classification: C61, C62, C63     

Free boundary and optimal stopping problems for American Asian options

We give a complete and self-contained proof of the existence of a strong solution to the free boundary and optimal stopping problems for pricing American path-dependent options. The framework is sufficiently general to include geometric Asian options with nonconstant volatility and recent path-dependent volatility models.      

Pricing American Put Options on Defaultable Bonds

In the last two decades, the market of credit derivativeshas expanded rapidly, and the importance of pricing problemsfor credit derivatives has been recognized especially in the last decade.Among these securities, the pricing problems of credit derivativeswith an early exercise, such as American put options,have not received enough attention. In view of this need, this paper develops a continuous stochastic modelof American put options on defaultable bonds.The method of obtaining a solution is based on a new result of the optimalstopping problem for a diffusion process with a jump.Some characterizations of American put options are providedusing partial differential equations.     

An optimal stopping problem in risk theory

Abstract

In classical risk theory often stationary premium and claim processes are considered. In some cases it is more convenient to model non-stationary processes which describe a movement from environmental conditions, for which the premiums were calculated, to less favorable circumstances. This is done by a Markov-modulated Poisson claim process. Moreover the insurance company is allowed to stop the process at some random time, if the situation seems unfavorable, in order to calculate new premiums. This leads to an optimal stopping problem which is solved explicitly to some extent.     

The Russian option: Finite horizon

We show that the optimal stopping boundary for the Russian option with finite horizon can be characterized as the unique solution of a nonlinear integral equation arising from the early exercise premium representation (an explicit formula for the arbitrage-free price in terms of the optimal stopping boundary having a clear economic interpretation). The results obtained stand in a complete parallel with the best known results on the American put option with finite horizon. The key argument in the proof relies upon a local time-space formula.Received: March 2004, Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B28, 35R35, 45G10, 60G40, 60J60JEL Classification: G13Goran Peskir: Centre for Analytical Finance (funded by the Danish Social Science Research Council) and Network in Mathematical Physics and Stochastics (funded by the Danish National Research Foundation).The first draft of the present paper has been completed in September 2002. I am indebted to Albert Shiryaev for useful comments.     

所得税视角下公司股利政策的选择

股利政策主要讨论企业税后利润如何分配的问题,是企业的一项重要决策。然而,所得税的存在使得在不同的股利分配方式下股东会获得不同的税后股利。本文在阐述股利分配的几个著名的理论之后,给出了多提留的股利政策、股票股利、股票回购三个在考虑所得税存在的情况下可选择的股利分配方式,以实现股东财富最大化的财务管理目标。     

现金股利研究的新视角:基于企业生命周期理论

论文选取2000～2006年A股非金融行业上市公司为样本,首先采用专门方法来区分企业所处的生命周期阶段,然后采用多元回归、参数检验、非参数检验来检验上市公司是否会根据企业所处的生命周期阶段调整其现金股利政策,不同生命周期阶段的企业在现金股利支付意向及现金股利支付率是否存在显著差异.结果表明,我国上市公司的确会基于不同的生命周期采取不同的股利政策,但会受到证监会配股增发政策的影响.     

现金股利政策影响因素实证分析——以中国酒业上市公司为例

股利政策作为现代公司理财的核心内容之一,不仅关系着公司股东的利益还关系着公司的稳定发展,因此合理的股利分配政策无论是对于股东的利益还是对于公司的稳定发展都有着重要的意义。而影响股利政策的因素也有很多,不同的因素对其影响也不同。文章选取了中国酒业上市公司为研究对象,根据2009、2010两年派发现金股利的情况和上市公司年报的财务数据资料,通过实证研究找出影响中国酒业上市公司现金股利政策的主要因素,并通过具体地分析,进一步为该行业股利政策的制定和规范提出具有合理性和可取性的建议,以提高企业的价值,实现股东财富最大化的目标。     

Dividend persistence and dividend behaviour

This article demonstrates how a spurious regression problem caused by dividend persistence is compounded by a spurious correlation problem when the dependent and independent variables in dividend behaviour regressions are ratios composed of common component variables. This article utilises a simulation procedure to take account of these problems, with the findings implying that extreme care should be taken when using ratios as predictor or explanatory variables in time series regression. This article introduces a reformulated Lintner first difference dividend behaviour model that is not subject to spurious regression in which past prices predict subsequent changes in dividends.     

产品市场竞争对上市公司股利政策的影响

本文选用2009-2012年的1469家中国上市公司的平衡面板数据，检验了产品市场竞争与上市公司股利政策的相关性。研究发现在其他条件一定的情况下，产品市场竞争程度与上市公司股利支付倾向和支付力度呈现正相关关系。     

Are all dividends created equal? Australian evidence using dividend‐increase track records

Recent research indicates that the signal sent by a dividend change is more powerful for longer histories of unchanged dividends. We study the dividend history of Australian firms to investigate whether the signalling power of a dividend increase varies with the frequency of repetition. We find that the first three consecutive dividend increases are associated with significantly positive abnormal returns, and subsequent increases are generally not significant, even after controlling for the interaction effect with the simultaneously announced earnings information. Our results support the hypothesis that repeating a dividend increase eventually leads to a reputation for further increases and weakens the value of subsequent increases as a means of disseminating management's private information.     

股权分置、公司治理与股利分配决策：现金股利还是股票股利？

以2004~2007中国上市公司为样本,应用LOGISTIC回归对-股权分置改革前后我国上市公司股利分配决策进行理论与实证分析。结果表明,股权分置改革后,我国上市公司发放股票股利呈现增多的趋势,第一大股东、第二大股东持股比例越高,以及董事会人数越多,公司越倾向于现金股利分配,但机构投资者持股比例越高,越倾向于发放股票股利。同时,企业成长性强的公司倾向于发放股票股利,而现金流量好的公司往往不发放股票股利,企业规模与股票分配决策无关。