Analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Growth and Discussion of Related Policies

I. Analysis of Factors in the Growth of Import and Export TradeAccording to Customsstatistics,China’s import and export tradereached US$620.8 billionin 2002,growing by 21.8 percent, with imports growing by 21.2 percentand exports by 22.4 percent. Such growth reached as high as 37.1 percent in 2003, with the total volumereachingUS$851.2 billion,withimportsgrowingby39.9percentandexportsby 34.6percent.In the firstthree quartersof 2004, the total value of import and export tradehit US$828.5…     

China＇s Economy in 2006/2007： Managing High Growth for Faster Structural Adjustment

China's economy in 2006 continued to register high growth of 10.5 to 10.7 percent with low inflation (CPI at 1.3 percent),dissipating fears of a hard landing. Since its accession to the WTO,China has become a significant global economic player,and is the favorite destination for many regional and global production networks. China is now a truly economic power (jingji daguo). China's economic leadership is also increasingly confident of its ability to manage China's domestic economic growth and its growing relations with the outside world. Although China's growth is expected to slow down in 2007 to approximately 9.5 percent,the national mood now is one of "more balanced" growth rather than "fast growth". Therefore,the building of a "harmonious society" is to be emphasized in China,while letting economic growth solve the burning social and environmental issues. In 2007,the government will also need to deal with various internal and external macroeconomic imbalances. The renminbi will be under even stronger pressure to revalue,given China's record trade surplus of US$160bn and foreign reserves of US$1tn.     

Prospect for China–Korea Economic Relations

I. Introduction The Chinese economy has undergone dramatic changes since the adoption of economic reform and the opening-up policy of 1978. In the past 26 years, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has reached an average 9.3 percent per year and China’s currentGDP size, measured in comparable prices, is 10.3 times larger than it was in 1978. China’s GDP, measured with the official exchange rate, ranks sixth in the world and is second in terms of purchasing power parity, on…     

China＇s Pattern of Growth： Moving to Sustainability and Reducing Inequality

I. Introduction China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged 9.4 percent per annum since1978. As a result of this impressive growth, millions of people were lifted out of poverty. Economic reforms implemented over the last 25 years have certainly been instrumental in the remarkable growth performance, leading to higher productivity growth than in the pre- reform period. Nevertheless, it is widely agreed that China’s growth during this period has been resource intensive, drawing…     

Analysis of South Korea’s Direct Investment in China

I.General Situation of South Korea’sDirect Investment in ChinaSouth Korea’s investment in China has increased dramatically since1992,when the twocountries formallyestablished diplomatic relations.According to China’s statistics,in1992,South Korea’s direct investment in China was only US$119million.By2002,it reachedUS$2.721billion–a26.78percent annual growth on average.This was much higher thantheaverageannual growth ofinvestmentby other countries in China,which stood at10.87 pe…     

Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform： Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010

In the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. We find the following stylized facts： the value of the RAIB became stable after the reform; the weight of the US dollar remained high in the basket, while other currencies remained statistically significant; and the floating band gradually increased to lO percent during 2005-2008, and then greatly narrowed from the late summer of 2008 under the assumption of a yearly resetting interval. We find that the foreign exchange market pressure increased from 2005 to 2008. A possible reason is that the weight of the US dollar in the basket was slightly lower than the share of the US dollar in total transactions on the Chinese foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is reasonable for China to adopt a dollar peg exchange rate regime.     

China''''s Macroeconomic Situation Since 2003

I. IntroductionThe Chinese economy picked up strongly in the second half of 2002. In 2003, its GDPgrew by 9.1 percent, the highest growth rate since 1997, and reached 11.67 trillion RMByuan, equivalent to US$ 1.4 trillion at the current exchange rate. The inflation rate in 2003measured by CPI was 1.2 percent, which signaled that the Chinese economy has finallyshaken off the deflation that had plagued the economy since the second half of 1997. Inthe first quarter of 2004, Chinas growth ra…     

On the Skepticism Regarding China''''s Economic Growth——Viewed from Improvement of China''''s Energy Utilization

Ⅰ.IntroductionChina has maintained a fairly high speed of growth in itseconomy since it introduced the policy of reform and open-ing up,generating worldwide attention and approval.Butthere is also a kind of skepticism,casting doubt on the per-formance and future growth of the Chinese economy,par-ticularly in regard to the belief that China's statistics arewatered.the main influential views published abroad claimthat:(1)the energy statistics are inconsistent with GDP growth     

Rebalancing China＇s Economic Growth： Some Insights from Japan＇s Experience

One of the greatest challenges China faces is reshaping its heavily investment-driven mode of economic growth.By investigating how the rebalancing of Japan’s economic growth mode was realized in the 1970s,we indicate that it is essential in rebalancing to correct the distortions in factor cost(labor cost and capital cost) in a harmonious way.In addition,we refer to Japan’s experience to indicate that rebalancing of domestic growth does not necessarily lead to external rebalancing.     

Rethinking Fast Growth in China＇s Foreign Exchange Reserves

I. Introduction Since 2000, China’s foreign exchange reserves have been growing fast. By the end of 2001, China’s foreign exchange reserves had exceeded US$200bn and by the end of 2002 had reached US$286.4bn. By the end of 2003, it had reached US$403.3bn and in 2004 it reached US$609.9bn. In 1999, China’s foreign exchange reserves accounted for 15.6 percent of its GDP. The ratio has been growing continually and was 36.88 percent of GDP by 2004 (see Table 1), making China the second…     

China： Between Social Stability and Market Integration

I. IntroductionOver the past two and a half decades the Chinese leadership has succeeded in ensuring96 Giovanni B. Andornino, Russell G. Wilcox / 95 – 108, Vol. 14, No. 3, 2006 ?2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?2006 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economic growth while implementing policies engineered to allow gradual integration into the world economy in a more or less managed fashion.1 Starting from a position of isolation and suppo…     

Analysis of Impact of Urbanization on Environmental Quality in China

As a developing country with great regional disparities, China's rapid urbanization has had important impacts on environmental quality. In this study, the drivers‐mechanisms‐effects (DME) model is built, which shows how element agglomeration, scale growth, knowledge accumulation and industry evolution drive the environmental system to change during the urbanization process. An econometric regression model using provincial panel data is further constructed to empirically analyze the impacts of urbanization on environmental quality. It is shown that during the process of urbanization in China, element agglomeration and knowledge accumulation help to improve environmental quality but with weak positive effect, while growing urban scale and industrial structure have obvious negative effects on environmental quality. The “inverted‐U shape” (up first and then down) change in the environmental quality during China's urbanization process is obvious. It is critical that China concentrates on the transformations of both city development paths and urbanization models to reduce resource and environmental costs as much as possible.     

China＇s Economy in 2007/2008： Coping with Problems of Runaway Growth

Fuelled by high domestic investment and rapid export expansion, China ＂s economy grew by ll.4 pereent in 2007, the highest increase since 1994 and the fifth eonseeutive year of double-digit growth. Such spectacular growth performance is unprecedented in the world＇s economic history. However, the Chinese Government is again worried about a possible ＂hard landing＂for the economy, as no economy can sustain very strong growth for extremely long period without overheating. Cracks in China ＂s economy are indeed emerging. The eonsumer priee index shot up to 6.9percent in November 2007, the highest level in a decade, with the annual inflation for 2007 rising to 4.S pereent, well above the government＇s ＂comfort level＂ of 3 percent. This prompted China＇s top leadership to declare that reducing economic overheating and curbing inflation would be the top poliey priorities for 2008. To contain such cost-push inflation, the government has to tackle its root causes, such as excessive liquidity, which is caused by the undervaluation of the renminbi, which in turn is attributable to China＇s chronic external and internal maeroeeonomie imbalances~ High growth is likely to continue in 2008, at around l O pereent, with inflation of S-6 pereent expected, despite the anticipated tighter maeroeeonomie control measures and the more troubled external economic environment （e.g. the expected US economic slowdown）. Regardless, China ＂s fundamental problems associated with runaway growth will largely remain. In addition, if the US economy slips into a serious recession, the Chinese economy will not be able to deeouple from it and escape unscathed.     

China,Like the US,Faces Challenges in Achieving Inclusive Growth through Manufacturing

For more than three decades the goal of becoming “the factory of the world” has been at the core of China's development strategy. This strategy, in combination with high rates of domestic investment and low rates of consumption, has made Chinese production the most manufacturing intensive in the world. But as its wages have risen, China's competitiveness in the most labor‐intensive manufacturing industries has eroded. Its ability to assemble products remains a major source of its exports, but it has also tried to shift toward more sophisticated value‐added production domestically. Chinese domestic spending has shifted away from investment toward consumption as citizens' income has grown. Like Americans, Chinese are also spending more on services than on manufactured goods. All of these changes are fundamentally altering the structure of China's production, reducing the role of manufacturing and increasing the skill levels of workers in manufacturing. This paper reviews the challenges posed by these developments for China's long‐term goal of achieving more inclusive growth. It presents evidence that the commonly held perceptions that Chinese manufacturing employment growth is robust are wrong. In fact, such growth has peaked and China is now following a pattern of structural change that is typical of a more mature emerging economy, in which the share of employment in manufacturing declines as workers are increasingly employed in services.     

Understanding China's Economic Growth from a Regional Policy Perspective

There has been ongoing interest in China's economic growth. What were the drivers of China's economic growth in past years? What policies were used to promote China's economic growth? Although different lenses may be used to understand and explain China's economic growth, this paper draws on historical, theoretical, and empirical perspectives to discuss the nexus between China's regional policies and economic growth. First, we review the evolution of China's regional policy and the policy's changing emphasis in different development stages, from balanced, unbalanced, and coordinated development to synergistic development. Then we construct a theoretical model to illustrate the impact of regional policy on the local economy and conduct an empirical examination with a case study of regional policy using regression discontinuity design. This paper analyzes the concept of regional policy and the underpinning logic of economic growth and presents practical approaches to formulate a better regional policy framework.     

Economic Benefits and Environmental Costs of China's Exports: A Comparison with the USA Based on Network Analysis

This paper decomposes economic benefits (value‐added) and environmental costs (CO₂) of exports according to their sources, and maps the global value network (GVN) and the global emissions network (GEN) for China's exports during 1995–2009 from national, sectoral and national–sectoral perspectives. A comparison is conducted between China and the USA. National GVN and GEN show that shares of value‐added and CO₂ emissions from China in its GVN and GEN both decreased first then increased after 2006, while shares from the USA in its GVN and GEN generally decreased. Sectoral GVN and GEN show that among China's exports, “electrical and optical equipment” and “electricity, gas and water supply” were, respectively, the sectors that obtained the most value‐added and emitted the most CO₂. National–sectoral GVN and GEN for China exhibited reciprocal and disassortative patterns, and in‐strengths and out‐strengths of GVN and GEN for China's exports were mainly captured by several domestic country–sector pairs.     

Forty Years Development of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Retrospect and the Challenges Ahead

Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has increasingly become an important method for China to integrate into the world economy. This paper comprehensively reviews and analyzes policy development and the changing pattern of China's OFDI over the past 40 years. We divide the development into “restricted” (1978–1999), “relaxed” (2000–2016) and “regulated” (2017 onwards) stages. This paper also reviews literature on the impact of Chinese OFDI on China and host countries. Despite its generally positive effects, large‐scale and unbalanced OFDI activities have alarmed Chinese policymakers. Both developing and developed host countries have expressed their concern over national security and the misbehavior of some Chinese overseas enterprises. Therefore, greater supervision and adjustment from quantity to quality growth is necessary for the future development of China's OFDI.     

China's Economic Transition Syndrome

Following 30 years of high economic growth, China's economy is in the midst of a classic transition from an industrial to a post‐industrial economy. In this transition period, the mismatch between supply and demand is growing, while the country's economic growth engine is weakening. Stimulus policies have aimed to maintain the country's economic growth momentum but they have come at the price of sharply increased financial fragility and resource misallocation, both of which are harmful to economic growth. China's “economic transition syndrome” refers to the vicious cycle of slowing GDP growth, combined with increasing demand for stimulus policies, and increasing financial fragility and resource misallocation.     

High‐speed Rail and Urban Economic Growth in China after the Global Financial Crisis

High‐speed rail (HSR) has been an important driver of China's economic expansion over the last decade. Using data of 285 prefecture‐level cities over 2010–2014, this paper proposes an endogenous economic growth model to explain how and why HSR may have propelled China's economic growth by reducing the time‐space between cities. The research results show that HSR has a potent effect on urban economic growth and regional convergence. Ceteris paribus, HSR appears to have accelerated economic growth by more than 0.6 percent and the pace of regional economic convergence by approximately 2 percent per annum over the data period. Our research findings have important policy implications for the sustainability of China's economic development, backed by HSR.