城镇化与收入结构的关联效应:基于安徽的实证

利用1990-2018年安徽省相关数据,以城乡居民收入多元化为基本前提,采用灰色关联分析法就安徽省城镇化水平与城乡居民收入结构之间的关联效应进行研究.结果表明:城镇化水平与居民收入结构之间存在关联性,且农村居民收入结构与城镇化的关联度略高于城镇,但不同类型收入的关联性有所不同,安徽省城镇化对城镇居民收入来源的影响为:转移性收入＞工资性收入＞财产性收入＞经营性收入;对农村居民收入来源的影响为:财产性收入＞工资性收入＞经营性收入＞转移性收入;对城乡收入差距的影响为:财产性收入差距＞经营性收入差距＞转移性收入差距＞工资性收入差距.城乡相比,经营性收入、财产性收入与城镇化的关联度为:农村略高于城镇,工资性收入、转移性收入与城镇化的关联度呈现城镇高于农村,城镇化与城乡收入结构存在密切的关系.     

普惠金融对城乡收入差距的影响——基于产业结构的中介效应分析

本文基于2009-2019年省级面板数据,以产业结构为中介变量,实证考察普惠金融的城乡收入分配效应。研究发现:普惠金融有利于缩小城乡收入差距,产业结构在其中发挥部分中介效应;普惠金融对城乡工资性、经营性、转移性收入差距存在改善效应,对财产性收入差距存在扩大效应;金融支持“三农”和小微企业、金融数字化对城乡收入差距缩小具有积极影响,但对以金融服务网点密度等指标衡量的金融服务渗透性的影响效果则相反。     

收入结构、金融资产选择与投资组合有效性——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的实证检验

根据微观家庭追踪调查数据,本文分析了收入结构对资产选择及投资组合有效性之间的异质性影响。通过计量分析及内生性检验研究表明:收入结构中工资性收入的比重越高,其参与股票、基金与国债的概率就越高;转移性收入比重的增加对于股票与基金两种风险资产并不存在统计上的显著性;经营性收入的占比对于基金与国债的显著性水平高于股票;财产性收入的占比对于三种资产在1%显著性水平上具有正向促进作用;家庭收入结构中的转移性收入比重的增加,并没有显著增加资产配置的投资组合有效性;其他三类收入比重的增加,均对投资组合有效性具有正向显著影响。这意味着,提高家庭的金融市场参与概率与投资组合有效性,不仅需要从收入水平入手,更应重视收入结构的调整,着力增加居民的财产性收入。     

不同收入来源对农村内部收入差距影响的实证分析——以安徽省为例

本文在回顾以往相关文献的基础上,借鉴前人的研究方法,构建了一个不同于基尼系数的新的指标用于衡量农村居民的收入差距,并把这一指标引入模型,用以分析不同收入来源对安徽省农村居民收入差距的影响,并从实证分析当中得出一些缩小安徽省农村内部收入差距的启示。实证结果显示,农民的工资性收入、生产经营性收入以及转移性和财产性收入会对收入差距产生影响,前两者的影响是正向的,且工资性收入对收入差距的影响更为可观。     

中国农民收入差异分析

本文利用泰尔指数来测算我国农民收入的差异,发现新世纪以来我国农民收入的不平等经历了一个先上升后下降的阶段;进一步对农民收入按来源进行分解发现工资性收入造成的不平等仍是不平等的主要来源,但是财产性收入和转移性收入对不平等的贡献逐年增大,转移支付并没有成为缩小收入差距的一种有效手段;最后文章基于VECM模型研究了抚养系数与工资性收入的长期动态关系,一定程度上解释了造成工资性收入巨大差异的原因.     

居民财产性收入“大跃进”

居民收入靠财产性与转移性收入增长,有些不靠谱.一季度城镇居民收入增长有两个特点,一、城镇居民人均总收入增长中,财产性收入增长11.2％,虽然财产性收入占收入总比重仅2％左右,但耀眼的增速说明,财产性收入可能成为重要依托.二、经营性收入增长9.28％,增速位列第二;转移性收入增速为8.8％,位列第三.延续了2010年以来的惯性,农村居民的收入增长好于城市居民,其中财产性收入增长27％,工资性收入增长16.5％,转移性收入增长12.2％,家庭经营收入仅增长7.3％.上述增速均为未扣除通胀的名义增速.     

收入结构视角下海南农民增收问题的思考

农民问题是"三农"问题的关键,农民增收问题是农民问题的核心。海南80%以上的土地在农村、60%以上的人口是农民,在农民收入结构视角下,研究农民工资性收入、经营性收入、转移性收入和财产性收入构成状况及其增长影响因素,保障和拓宽农民增收渠道,既是维护农民切身利益、振兴乡村产业和农村社会和谐稳定的夯实之举,也是海南全面建成小康社会、推动海南自由贸易港建设的时代要求。     

个人所得税对省际间城镇居民收入差距和社会福利的影响

本文采用2005~2011年我国31个省(市区)城镇居民的收入和个税数据,重点研究个人所得税对城镇居民的收入差距和社会福利的影响。我们发现:个税能够缩小省际收入差距,但调节作用有限;个税会小幅降低工资性收入对总体差异的贡献率,同时使经营性收入、财产性收入和转移性收入的贡献率略微增加;个税没有提高各省之间的收入流动性;个税使城镇居民的社会福利水平下降了,收入差距缩小带来的福利增加并不能补偿收入水平下降导致的福利损失。     

个人所得税分项收入的占比结构与税收负担

加强对个人所得税分项收入的分析与研究,是强化个人所得税收入调节功能的重要考量,也是顺利推进个人所得税由分类计征方式向分类与综合相结合的计征方式改革的迫切需要。本文基于2000-2012年我国个人所得税工资性所得税收收入、经营性所得税收收入、财产性所得税收收入的基本数据和增长状况,分别测算、分析了这三大分项收入的占比结构、税收负担等关键维度的基本特征与变化趋势,对其影响因素进行了探讨。以此为基础,本文提出:在下一步我国个人所得税以分类计征方式向分类与综合相结合的计征方式转变的改革框架下,应将工资性所得税收收入与经营性所得税收收入所包含的现有税目纳入综合计税的范畴;对财产性所得税收收入所包含的税目及其他税目应实行分类计税,并改用超额累进税率;同时,个人所得税税款的征收应尽可能地采用代扣代缴方式。     

日本负利率政策的收入分配效应研究北大核心CSSCI

由于经济陷入长期停滞,负利率政策成为日本政府刺激经济的常规操作手段,由此引发的收入分配效应成为理论界关注的焦点。本文理论分析了负利率政策对收入分配的影响渠道,并基于日本2016—2020年的月度数据,构建FAVAR模型实证检验日本负利率政策的收入分配效应。结果表明,日本负利率政策加剧收入分配不平等主要通过两个渠道:一是储蓄渠道,通过影响投资和消费结构,不断拉大工资性收入和经营性收入的差距;二是资产价值渠道,通过财富再分配,加剧财产性收入分配失衡。然而,日本负利率政策通过收入构成渠道和就业渠道对收入分配不平等的缓解效果微弱,无法有效改善日本收入分配不平等的现状。因此,对于负利率环境,我国应密切关注对日本和西方国家负利率政策影响收入分配的最新研究进展,以及负利率政策一旦逆转可能带来的外溢冲击,把控好我国利率政策的调整力度,避免对共同富裕产生负面影响。     

Revenue Elasticities in Complex Income Tax Structures: An Application to Spain*

This paper derives analytical expressions for the revenue elasticity of complex income tax systems, as applied to tax units and in aggregate. Among the complexities considered are the schedular nature of income tax systems and the role of central and regional governments, along with the existence of a range of intricate tax credits and eligible expenditures and deductions. Empirical estimates are obtained for the case of Spain using a cross‐sectional data set, which enables a number of important ancillary elasticities (relating to allowances and tax credits, and different income sources) to be estimated. It is found that there is considerable variation among tax units in the revenue elasticity, with highly positively skewed distributions. The nature of the distributions varies among regions of Spain, and the aggregate elasticities for each region were found to display some variation associated with income distribution differences. The national aggregate is found to be around 1.3.     

中国银行业非利息收入与利息收入相关性研究

实现非利息收入和利息收入并重发展是中国商业银行经营战略转型的目标之一.在非利息收入快速发展的同时,关注非利息收入与利息收入之间的相关性,是实现缓解银行收入波动、加强银行稳健经营的重要前提.检测1990年至2006年之间中国14家商业银行非利息收入与利息收入之间的相关性的结果表明,中国银行业非利息收入与利息收入之间相关性基本为正,且不断增加.但其中大型国有银行的收入结构较股份制银行具有较好的熨平整体收入波动的效果.     

Financial Structure and Income Inequality: Evidence from China

This study investigates the relationship between financial structure and income inequality in China and explores a channel for changes of financial structure to influence income inequality. Our results suggest that, relative to total bank credit, an increase in the raised capital from the stock market reduces income inequality, whereas a rise of turnover in the stock market augments income inequality. Financial structure affects income inequality by influencing the development of medium-sized enterprises. Our evidence supports the financial structure relevancy view. To reduce income inequality, the Chinese government should help to promote equity financing and decrease excessive speculation on the stock market.     

湖南省税收收入与经济增长的相关分析

运用协整检验和误差修正模型,以湖南省1970～2004 年的数据为样本,对湖南省税收收入与经济增长相关性进行的实证分析表明:湖南省经济增长与税收增长基本协调,但是,在湖南省税收收入高增长的同时,也存在税收收入的弹性相对偏低的问题.这一方面说明税务部门征收管理工作的进步,另一方面也说明非税收入的规模过大,挤占了税收增长的空间.为此,应继续加强征收管理;优化收入结构,强化非税收入管理;优化产业布局,大力发展制造业和服务业.     

Progression and revenue effects of income tax reform

Usually, only initial revenue effects of personal income tax reforms are considered. However, a tax reform characterized by base broadening in exchange for rate reduction can reduce the income elasticity of tax revenue. In that case, the increase in revenue after income growth will be relatively smaller: the tax reform has a negative effect on revenue in the second period. Using the microtax model of the Central Planning Bureau we simulated the effects of the Dutch Oort reform 1990 on revenue elasticities and, consequently, on tax revenue. The income tax revenue elasticity declined by 17 percent which caused an additional revenue loss of 0.6 percent in 1990, rising to 3.8 percent in 1993.     

我国直接融资对财政收入增长效应之初探

对我国近年直接融资和财政收入增长之间的关系进行了初步探讨和研究.将国内关于财政收入增长原因的研究成果归纳为"94税改"、经济发展、居民收入增长、经济运行等几个方面,并在此基础上用直接融资数据、企业财务数据和宏观财政数据对直接融资和财政收入增长之间的关系进行了分析探讨.结果表明,我国近年来直接融资对财政收入具有明显的增长效应,从另一个角度解释了2006、2007以及2008年上半年我国财政收入高速增长的现象.     

Social Transfers And Income Inequality In Old Age

Abstract

This paper examines variation in old-age income inequality between industrialized nations with modern welfare systems. The analysis of income inequality across countries with different retirement income systems provides a perspective on public pension policy choices and designs and their distributional implications. Because of the progressive nature of public pension programs, we hypothesize that there is an inverse relationship between the quality of public pension benefits and old-age income inequality—that is, countries with comprehensive, universal, and generous public pension systems will exhibit more equal distributions of income in old age.

Luxembourg Income Study data indeed show that cross-national variation in old-age income inequality is partly explained by differences in the percentage of seniors’ total income derived from public pension transfers. Sweden, for example, has the highest level of government transfers and the lowest level of old-age income inequality, while Israel and the United States have the lowest levels of dependency on government transfers and the highest levels of income inequality. A notable exception is Canada, where public transfers represent only a moderate portion of elderly income, yet old-age income inequality is relatively low. These findings suggest that quality of public pension benefits does indeed play a role in explaining differences in old-age income inequality between industrialized nations, yet these variations are also likely influenced by other factors.     

Alternative Retirement Income Arrangements and Lifetime Income Inequality: Lessons From Australia

This paper examines the implications for lifetime income equality of alternative retirement income arrangements, using the Australian scheme as a benchmark. In Australia, the pay-as-you go financed age pension is means-tested and thereby provides a contrast with those countries where part or all of a basic pension is paid to all aged persons. Many governments are considering an increase in the level of means-testing. The results show that the introduction of a universal pension coupled with significant changes and simplifications to the structure of taxation and superannuation have little effect on the redistributive impact of the tax structure in a life cycle framework. The presence of means-testing appears to have no significant effect on life-time inequality. The results suggest that it is possible to eliminate complexities from the system providing retirement benefits without having any deleterious effect on equity. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Study on the Effect of Financial Inclusion on the Relationship Between Income Inequality and Economic Growth

In this article, we attempt to estimate whether financial inclusion, expressed as financial accessibility, has a positive effect on reducing income inequality. Furthermore, we estimate the effect of such financial inclusion on economic growth by reducing income inequality. From the results of our empirical analysis, we can draw the following three conclusions. First, income inequality has a very negative effect on GDP growth. The negative relationship between income inequality and GDP growth is strong in low-income countries. In addition, income inequality has a stronger effect on reducing economic growth in high-fragility countries. Second, progressivity is not a major factor in reducing income inequality in low-income countries or in high-fragility countries. Finally, financial inclusion improves the relationship between income inequality and economic growth. The reduction in income inequality through financial inclusion changes the negative relationship between income inequality and economic growth into a positive relationship. This trend is stronger in high-fragility countries than in low-fragility countries.     

Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance*

This paper reviews the practice and performance of revenue forecasting in selected OECD countries. It turns out that the cross‐country differences in the performance of revenue forecasting are first of all associated with uncertainty about the macroeconomic fundamentals. To some extent, they are also driven by country characteristics such as the importance of corporate and (personal) income taxes. Also, differences in the timing of the forecasts prove important. However, controlling for these differences, we find that the independence of revenue forecasting from possible government manipulation exerts a robust, significantly positive effect on the accuracy of revenue forecasts.