关于实转制等外贸新政的研究——以中国沿海加工装配业为例

目前中国沿海外向型劳动密集型产业特别是三来一补产业中,中间品供应绝大多数都通过进口,因此其中间品采购本地后向化带动中国经济发展的潜力巨大。在新贸易格局下,沿海外向型企业面临的压力和困境是劳动密集型产业衰退,而契机则是中间品生产转型。在实转制等外贸新政下,中国沿海现有劳动密集型产业无论在本地后向化的中间品采购方面,还是本地后向化的转型中间品生产方面都能为中国沿海经济的发展继续作出贡献。     

论中国外贸转型的合理取向及政策建议

中国正处于货物贸易粗放型增长模式不可持续而服务贸易又缺乏竞争力的两难境地,但目前出于就业压力及比较优势尚存的原因,中国不能放弃劳动密集型产品的出口,服务贸易的发展又势在必行.所以,外贸转型的合理取向应该是加快实现从有形的货物贸易为主向有形的货物贸易与无形的服务贸易并重的方式转变,使服务贸易成为推动中国贸易增长的重要力量.     

中国进出口贸易顺差的原因、现状及未来展望

以工业制成品进出口为主导,并附之以初次产品进口的国际贸易分工模式所带来的大量贸易顺差,是中国经济的资源禀赋和对外投资、贸易政策共同作用的结果;而顺差变化幅度的轨迹则表明,中国经济正在实现通过外向型政策创造比较优势,向依靠国内大市场培育的规模经济和近乎无限供给的劳动力条件形成的、自发的比较优势转变这一过程。因此,贸易顺差的扩大是未来相当长时期内中国经济对外贸易的基本态势,不存在任何低成本的快速降低贸易顺差的短期措施。     

对外贸易差额结构 与中国新经济增长模式

本文通过考察中国对外贸易的差额结构来展望“十二五”纲要中提出的中国新经济增长模式的发展前景。统计分析表明,中国对外贸易顺差是伴随着高耗能、低附加值制造业的发展而实现的,中国外向型制造业的附加值很低,无法真正实现从根本上提升技术水平的目标。中国的产成品过于集中地出口到美国和欧盟,使中国产品在国际市场上面临着严重的贸易摩擦与争端,使中国对外贸易发展具有不可持续性。为完成“十二五”纲要中的发展目标,实现内外平衡的经济增长新模式,需要调整目前的贸易差额结构,既要努力实现国内制造业技术水平的提升,又要注意出口流向多元化,并且从根本上促进金融保险等服务业的发展;在依靠国内市场的同时不能放弃对外贸易,并力争做到二者的协同发展。     

制造业企业出口和生产率的关系——新新贸易理论框架下对中国工业企业的微观分析

在新新贸易理论的框架下,对中国规模以上工业企业从总体和分行业两个方面检验中国工业企业出口对生产率增长的影响,发现出口同企业全要素生产率增长显著负相关.造成出口效应不显著的原因除了中国尚不完善的市场体系外,还与中国出口贸易中加工贸易比重过高、加工环节大都处于劳动密集型而且技术含量不高的水平、加工过程短、增值率不高有关.因此,中国如果减少加工贸易的出口,便可以在不影响生产率增长的基础上降低外部需求.     

中国木质林产品出口贸易结构与林业经济增长——基于1981～2009年数据的分析

与世界主要木质林产品出口大国(地区)相比,中国劳动密集型木质林产品出口比重过大。基于1981~2009年间数据,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,分析中国劳动密集型、资源密集型、资本技术密集型木质林产品的出口与林业经济增长的关系,认为我国林业总产值与各类木质林产品的出口之间存在长期的均衡关系,资源密集型木质林产品出口与林业产值存在单向Granger因果关系,劳动密集型和资本技术密集型木质林产品的出口与林业产值之间存在双向Granger因果关系。     

Protection for maturing industries: Evidence from Canadian trade patterns and trade policy, 1870–1913

As industries mature, experience is accumulated, productivity increases, trade performance improves on domestic and international markets and learning potential dissipates. Using theory‐consistent empirical specifications, I find a strong, robust negative relationship linking tariff rates to trade performance for manufactured products that matured during the first decade after Canada prioritized protectionist policy objectives in 1879. This relationship also holds at a more aggregate industry level, where I can use other measures of maturity, control for import penetration, use historically contemporaneous trade elasticity estimates, link trade performance to trade restrictiveness and effective rates of protection and where I can instrument for import penetration and trade performance using a two‐stage IV–GMM estimation approach. The results suggest that after 1890 the Canadian government carefully cut tariffs on products produced by maturing Canadian producers and this retreat from protectionism significantly lowered the static deadweight losses resulting from Canadian trade policy during the post‐1890 period.     

Labor market distortions and China's WTO accession package:: an applied general equilibrium assessment

The economic implications of China's accession to the World Trade Organization have been analyzed using applied general equilibrium techniques. We explore the consequences of trade reform in the presence of labor market distortions. A formal model of imperfect labor mobility is incorporated into a large-scale, stochastic applied general equilibrium framework with which the consequences of China's trade reform for net welfare are considered. The simulations suggest that distortions in China's labor market, including imperfect labor mobility, rural-urban migration, dual urban markets and surplus rural labor, have significant effects on trade liberalization outcomes and in some cases produce unexpected second-best results. Journal of Comparative Economics 31 (4) (2003) 774–794.     

中国出口产品比较优势动态变化实证分析：1998-2008年

随着专业化程度的加深，中国比较优势长期维持在劳动密集型和低技术含量制成品上，并且优势不断加强。传统的分类分析高估了中国在资本和技术密集型产品上的比较优势，而通过产品的技术分类分析发现，在真正的中、高端技术产品上，中国一直处于比较劣势并且比较劣势不断恶化。今后应努力提高中国的技术水平，加快技术进步、自主创新的步伐，提升制成品的技术含量，积极开发高端技术产品，力求真正在中、高端技术产品上获得比较优势。     

A NOTE ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND EXPORTS IN VERTICALLY DIFFERENTIATED INDUSTRIES

We examine the FDI versus exports decision of a multiproduct multinational firm which supplies vertically differentiated products, and show that the proximity‐concentration trade‐off can generate FDI‐export coexistence, i.e., the firm supplies the low‐quality products through FDI and the high‐quality products through exports. We also show that the opposite can never happen. Moreover, when the multiproduct multinational firm faces price competition in the target markets, it has an incentive to use trade costs to soften price competition, which can reduce its FDI incentive.     

中国贸易方式转型与制造业就业结构关联性研究

2005年后 ,我国城镇制造业就业结构出现了非对称变化 ,东部省区制造业就业比重显著下降 ,中西部省区下降速度较慢甚至有所上升.产业结构、外商投资、贸易规模和商品结构等传统研究视角无法完美解释这一现象.基于2006 -2013年28个省级地区制造业整体及各子行业面板数据 ,在控制了相关变量及内生性问题后 ,文章研究发现 :代表低端劳动密集型的加工贸易比重与当地制造业就业占比呈显著正相关,纺织、服装等传统劳动密集型制造业及计算机、通信、电子设备制造和电器仪表制造等高劳动-资本比的制造业是加工贸易方式影响制造业就业结构的主要渠道;此外 ,近年全国尤其是东部省区加工贸易比重的下降带动了当地制造业熟练劳动力比重的上升.这为解释我国制造业就业结构变化提供了一个新的视角 ,也说明处于不同贸易方式转型阶段的地区应重视贸易方式转型对就业结构的影响,并采取差异性的就业政策.     

中国同欧盟贸易条件变化和波动情况的经验分析

本文在联合国统计司Comtrade数据库的基础上对中国同欧盟贸易条件的变化情况和波动情况进行了经验分析,结果发现:(1)从1987-2006年,中国同欧盟的整体贸易条件、初级产品贸易条件和制成品贸易条件都出现了一定程度的改善;(2)在中国加入WTO前后,除了高技术产品,中国同欧盟不管是整体贸易条件还是分类商品贸易条件,其波动性都是显著下降的;(3)减小中国同欧盟贸易条件波动的关键,一方面在于降低我国中技术产品进口对欧盟的过分依赖;另一方面在于改善中欧技术产品进出口贸易发展不平衡(进口大于出口)的局面.     

Aid for trade and the quality of exports

This article studies how aid for trade (AfT) affects the quality of recipient countries’ exports. It shows that the quality effect is most discernible for AfT for assistance in trade policy: a 50% increase in the value of AfT received in this category is associated with a 0.5–1% increase in the quality of exports to the donor and other OECD countries. On average, the actual AfT received for assistance in trade policy leads to a 2% upgrade of the recipient country in the quality ladder of all developing countries. Around half of this quality effect is driven by the quality improvement of continued products in continued markets (intensive margin), and the other half by the quality upgrading of new products in continued markets and existing products in new markets (extensive margin).     

Regional economic integration and geographic concentration of multinational firms

A number of theoretical studies have predicted that preferential trade agreements (PTAs) raise outside multinationals’ incentive to invest in the participating countries, especially in those that are integrated with larger markets and have lower production costs. The hypothesis has, however, not been tested empirically. This paper addresses the issue by estimating the impact of PTAs on countries’ ability to attract multinationals. The evidence is broadly consistent with expectations. The formation of PTAs leads to an increase in FDI by outside multinationals, but the effect varies sharply with the size of integrated markets and countries’ comparative advantage. Countries integrated with larger markets experience a greater increase in total and export-platform FDI. Those with a higher labor endowment also attract more FDI especially in labor-intensive industries, but at the expense of their labor-scarce PTA partners.     

How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?

China's global current account surplus equaled 9% of Chinese GDP in 2006 and 11% of GDP in 2007. Many argue that a renminbi appreciation would help to rebalance China's trade. Using a panel dataset including China's exports to 33 countries we find that a 10% renminbi (RMB) appreciation would reduce ordinary exports by 12% and processed exports by less than 4%. A 10% appreciation of all other East Asian currencies would reduce processed exports by 6%. A 10% appreciation throughout the region would reduce processed exports by 10%. Since ordinary exports tend to be simple, labor-intensive goods while processed exports are sophisticated, capital-intensive goods, a generalized appreciation in East Asia would generate more expenditure-switching towards US and European goods and contribute more to resolving global imbalances than an appreciation of the RMB or of other Asian currencies alone.     

“中国—东盟自由贸易区”建立对双边贸易影响的实证研究

中国—东盟自由贸易区双边贸易量随着贸易壁垒的降低而快速增长,并逐渐形成了中国主要出口劳动密集型和低技术产品,东盟主要出口资源密集型产品的贸易结构,从生产格局上看,双方又在各自优势领域中分工合作,互通有无。因此,中国应该进一步加快自由贸易区的建设,利用自由贸易区的机会,提升其产业结构,促进产业升级,尽量把优势产业投资到东盟国家内部。     

投资环境对外资企业效益的影响--来自企业层面的证据

本文利用企业层面数据 ,研究中国内地 44个城市的投资环境对外资企业效益的影响。我们发现 :一方面 ,投资环境 (尤其是法制环境 )对外资企业的效益有显著的正向影响 ;另一方面 ,在中国经营时间长、外方投资者投资次数多的外资企业对投资环境的依赖程度比较低。数据中外资企业效益的变化可能是由于外资企业效益真正发生了变化 ,也可能是外资企业出于纳税的考虑而改变了利润隐瞒的程度。我们的实证结果支持了前一种观点 ,而只是部分支持了后一种观点。     

我国高新技术产品出口贸易创新能力评价指标体系研究

高新技术产品出口的增长标志着出口贸易产品结构的优化和外贸效益的提高,近几年我国高新技术产品的出口呈现快速增长趋势。但是在出口总量增长的背后凸现出一般贸易份额小、产品附加值低、技术创新能力弱、高投入低效率等问题。因此全面、系统地分析和评价我国高新技术出口贸易现状、问题,建立创新能力评价指标体系具有重要的现实意义。首先论述我国高新技术产品出口贸易的发展历程及存在问题,定量地分析了我国在科技与创新方面的不足;其次提出了构建高新技术产品出口贸易技术创新能力评价指标体系的意义,并在文献研究的基础上构建了评价高新技术产品出口贸易创新能力的指标体系。     

中国园艺产品出口增长的成因分析——基于CMS模型的分解

中国园艺产品持续贸易顺差对于平衡农产品贸易逆差具有重要的作用。对1992—2008年中国园艺产品出口贸易变动情况进行分析,研究结果表明:世界贸易规模的扩大是中国园艺产品出口持续增长的主要原因;商品出口结构对园艺产品出口起阻碍作用,而且阻碍作用越来越明显;市场分布由阻碍作用逐渐转为促进作用,而且促进作用越来越突出;市场竞争力的下降是中国园艺产品出口放缓的主要原因,而且阻碍作用进一步加大。     

Trade Policy and Productivity Growth in OECD Manufacturing *

Trade liberalization may promote economic growth in a number of ways, including by accelerating the rate of technological change. Firms that face more intense import competition may be spurred to greater rates of innovation; firms which export may absorb new technologies through their contact with international markets. This paper examines evidence on trade policy and productivity growth for a sample of thirteen OECD countries and including eighteen manufacturing sectors, using data primarily from the 1980s. Within individual sectors, there are strong productivity convergence effects within the OECD. After controlling for convergence, we find a positive association between high rates of productivity growth and low tariffs, and between high productivity growth and strong export performance. We found no particular association between high productivity growth and import penetration. The results are consistent with the possibility of positive linkages between trade liberalization and accelerated productivity growth. [F1, O4]