香港近期经济形势判断及下半年经济发展趋势预测

<正> 一、香港近期经济形势的基本判断 今年是香港经济面临严峻考验的1年。金融风暴带来的负面影响在今年陆续浮现,加之5月以来的印尼危机等外围因素的影响,香港经济目前进入艰难的调整期。 第一,首李经济出现负增长。今年首季东南亚国家和地区的经济增长速度普遍下调,部分国家和地区出现了负增长,港府5月29日公布,香港经济出现了从1985年以来的首次负增长为-2％。 第二,息口高企,信贷紧缩,银根短绌。从去年金融风暴爆发以来,为捍卫联系汇率银行曾两度大幅提高利率,虽然年初曾下调1/4厘,息口高企趋势仍未改变。与此同时,各大银行均意识到资金充足的重要,以往银行资本充足比率达8％,最近金管局建议提高至10～12％,使银行贷款政策更趋审慎,令本已收缩的信贷市场雪上加霜,市场流动资金大幅减少,令香港出现银根严重弛绌问题,企业融资更加困难,借贷成本提高。 第三,股市、楼市、旅游业急速下滑。5月初受印尼局势影响港股跌破万点大关,5月中旬在各大地产发展商掀起一轮减价战影响下,曾跌至9200点获支持,至5月27日受传言港府公布香港首季经济出现负增长和全球股市大幅下挫影响,恒生指数跌穿9000点,当日下跌近500点。 金融风暴以后,楼市一有大幅下调,到5月份爆发了各大地产发展商减价战,使楼市持续下跌。目前普?     

CEPA是香港与内地经济融合的重要标志

“回归以来，凭借‘一国两制’的独特优势，内地与香港的经济不断加深合作、融合，为香港经济的恢复和发展提供了有力的支持。”[编者按]     

CEPACEPA推动香港经济转型

目前.香港经济正处于艰难的第三次转型阶段。经济上的转型,无异于脱胎换骨,其过程的艰难,香港人近年来可谓感同身受。 历史地看,香港的经济发展已经历了两次影响深远的历史性飞跃:第一次是在20世纪50年代,香港从转口贸易港发展为以轻纺工业为龙头的出口加工业基地;第二次是在70年代     

‘94中国经济形势分析与预测

在1993年国民经济高速发展的基础上,1994年能否在保持一定经济增长速度和有效抑制通货膨胀的同时,扎扎实实地在建立社会主义市场经济体制和结构调整方面迈出一大步,将成为中国经济发展在90年代中能否攀登上新台阶的关键。     

TRADE‐OFFS AND RIP‐OFFS: IMITATION‐LED INDUSTRIALISATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF TRADEMARK LAW IN HONG KONG*

Hong Kong's development as an industrial exporter was advantaged by a flexible institutional regime, which generated gains from imitation‐led industrialisation and which allowed the mobilisation of public and private resources to enable a transition to a more stringent enforcement regime for intellectual property. Fragmentary industrial structures raised monitoring costs for trademark proprietors and gave opportunities for infringers to exploit information asymmetries. However, colonial state building, the formation of specialist markets in knowledge, and collective actions by business groups caused the law to evolve. These overlapping processes of formal and informal institutional change were mutually reinforcing.     

粤港澳紧密合作区:内涵、思路和路径选择

"粤港澳紧密合作区"是广东在区域经济合作发展中贯彻落实科学发展观的表现,是广东构想的以政府为主导、市场为纽带、企业为主体、项目为载体的粤港澳互惠互利合作新模式。目前推动"粤港澳紧密合作区"的建设,一是要结合实际,明确紧密合作区的内涵、思路和合作重点;二是要选准项目,确定载体,明确路径,并能完善相应的对策措施。根据CEPA协议内容和目前粤港澳经济发展现实,广东应选择能体现粤港澳优势以及有示范效应的港深河套地区在深化合作发展高新产业方面,率先在合作体制和政策上实现创新与突破,以此来带动"粤港澳紧密融合区"的建设。     

THE ROLE OF HONG KONG IN SINO-TAIWAN AND SINO-KOREA TRADE, 1981-87

Sino-Taiwan and Sino-Korea trade through Hong Kong has been growing steadily since early 1980's. Direct trade is impossible because of the lack of diplomatic relations between China and Taiwan and China and S. Korea, Thus, an intermediary is essential to carry out the transactions. Then, there is the issue of why Hong Kong is chosen as the major intermediary. This relates to the transportation costs and transaction costs advantages that Hong Kong possesses as an entrepot. As the major intermediary in Sino-Taiwan and Sino-Korea trade, Hong Kong is playing multiple roles. It is serving as an entrepot in commodity trade; as an agent in the export of technology from Taiwan and S. Korea to China; as a mediator in trade disputes; and as the middle-man in some trade related issues such as the application of patent protection and the establishment of trade offices. Above all it is observed that Hong Kong has major roles to play not only in the case of indirect trade, but also in the case of direct trade. In the future, there might not be much chance for the legalization of direct trade. Nevertheless, the recent change in the trade and investment policies of Taiwan and S. Korea has shown that the future prospect of indirect trade is very bright.     

THE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM IN HONG KONG: ESTABLISHMENT AND READJUSTMENT OF THE LIBERAL WELFARE MODEL

Hong Kong's social security system has followed a “liberal” welfare state regime. The system has undergone changes along with the high economic growth, changes in the labor market, and transformation of the political environment, but has retained the fundamental principle of a social security system led by the private sector. In recent years, Hong Kong has responded to the aging population and growing unemployment by introducing the Mandatory Provident Fund Scheme that requires individuals to join private‐sector pension schemes and by intensifying cooperation with nongovernmental organizations. This indicates the deep‐seated nature of the influence of the liberal regime in Hong Kong.     

台港地区对1949～1979年中国大陆经济史研究评析

本文对港台地区研究者关于1949-1979年之间中国大陆经济的研究分专题进行了简要的叙述,对其中几个有代表性的观点进行了评析,分析了港台学者研究的特点,并指出只有坚持改革开放才是中国经济建设的唯一选择。     

粤港澳物流协同发展若干问题

新海上丝绸之路战略为粤港澳区域物流协同发展创造了难得的历史机遇,粤港澳区域物流应加强与"一带一路"战略的对接,成为"新海丝"战略实施的助推器;充分发挥大数据跨境电商物流"新引擎"作用,主动寻求新的发展机遇;积极推动"粤港澳自贸区"平台的申报建设工作,加强三地政府间的协作;充分利用区位优势,实现物流资源高效共享;加快一体化的公共物流信息平台建设,优化"大通关"管理机制,提高区域物流整体效率。