Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model, which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for hierarchical and for Minnesota-type priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.     

商业银行信用卡购车分期业务模式研究——以浙江省为例

本文在分析商业银行信用卡分期业务发展现状的基础上,对其信用卡购车分期业务经营模式及其存在的问题进行了分析,并对发展我国商业银行信用卡购车业务提出了相关的对策建议。     

Sustainable tourism development in islands: a case study of Gran Canaria

While sustainable development is recognized as an essential requirement for achieving economic goals without degrading the environment, major problems arise in defining methods for formulating and implementing sustainable strategic actions at the macro‐level, including islands. Bearing in mind this limitation, this research paper will attempt to present a strategic planning methodology for drawing up strategic issues for tourism development from the point of view of sustainability, which is particularly appropriate to islands. The authors first review existing literature on sustainable development with a view to defining a conceptual approach to sustainability and identifying particular areas for sustainable tourism development in the island context. A methodology for formulating strategic issues for sustainable tourism development in Gran Canaria is then drawn up. Sociocultural aspects, the environment and the economy, with particular emphasis on tourism, are examined in order to identify major strategic issues for sustainable development in Gran Canaria. Copyright Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

基于“三创”能力培养的物流管理专业系列课程考核探索

基于学生的“三创”能力培养和扩大招生的压力，研究了提高物流管理专业系列课程考核效率问题。结果表明考查课的考试改革是提高考核效率的突破穹。同时，从基本思路、具体实施方式、改革后可能带来的问题及解决措施，还有考核后效给出了如下四种改革方案：针对考察课的小组方式重点系列考核法，针对专业双语课的半开卷考试法，针对研究性学习课程的个体与小组结合考核法．针对指导性课程的参加通过考核法。2年的实践说明该方法总体效果较好。     

A Survey of Differentially Private Regression for Clinical and Epidemiological Research

Differential privacy is a framework for data analysis that provides rigorous privacy protections for database participants. It has increasingly been accepted as the gold standard for privacy in the analytics industry, yet there are few techniques suitable for statistical inference in the health sciences. This is notably the case for regression, one of the most widely used modelling tools in clinical and epidemiological studies. This paper provides an overview of differential privacy and surveys the literature on differentially private regression, highlighting the techniques that hold the most relevance for statistical inference as practiced in clinical and epidemiological research. Research gaps and opportunities for further inquiry are identified.     

Performance-related pay in Chinese professional sports

There have been numerous research studies and discussions of performance-related pay (PRP) in the human resource management literature, but very little research on PRP has included samples from non-Western societies. Moreover, few have studied PRP in the sport sector. The present study supports an expectancy model framework for PRP for professional athletes in China. The findings indicate the importance of the valence for monetary incentives, the instrumentality of performance for these incentives and clear individual and group objectives for improving performance. Comparisons for individual versus team and for females versus males yield important differences in the perception of the components of PRP programmes.     

基于就业胜任力的大学生就业管理研究

文章以大学生教育为主线,以提高大学生就业胜任力为目的,反思目前我国高校毕业生就业管理机制存在的问题,从大学生就业价值观、大学生人本教育理念2个方面提出适应我国高校就业管理工作的新模式,从而期望以更为科学有效的方式开展高校毕业生就业指导工作,提高毕业生就业能力,解决毕业生就业问题。     

Investment in Africa's Manufacturing Sector: A Four Country Panel Data Analysis

Firm level data for the manufacturing sector in Africa, presented in this paper, shows very low levels of investment. The importance of profit effects on investment is investigated using a flexible accelerator, a specification based on the Euler equation and a simple generalisation of these specificiations. There are controls for firm fixed effects. It is shown that the profit effect is very similar for both the accelerator and Euler equation specifications. A comparison with other studies shows that, for small firms, the effect is much smaller in Africa than for other countries. Reasons for the relative insensitivity of investment to profits in African firms are suggested. For the most general specification tested there are no significant differences in the size of the profit effect across the four countries in the study.     

市级科技基础条件平台的设计与实现

应用ASP、ACCESS、WEB交互技术设计和实现常德市科技基础条件平台,对推动常德科技进步,促进常德经济和社会的发展具有重要的战略意义。文章介绍了平台建设的主要内容和实现技术,为其它市的科技基础条件平台的建设提供了参考。     

Potential Unemployment Benefit Duration and Spell Length: Lessons from a Quasi-Experiment in Austria

The paper studies the effect of potential unemployment benefit duration on the length of unemployment spells in Austria. It takes advantage of a quasi-experimental situation, where potential benefit duration was extended in 1988 for elderly workers living in specific regions of the country. The empirical analysis shows that men react significantly to benefit duration whereas women generally do not. The quantitative impact is smaller than in comparable studies for the US and Germany. Furthermore, the impact of extended benefit duration is differentiated for short and long spells. Whereas for long spells higher impacts for men as well as for women are found, no unemployment-prolonging effects for short spells could be detected.     

The impact of coding time on the estimation of school effects

Multilevel growth curve models are becoming invaluable in educational research because they model changes in student outcomes efficiently. The coding of the time variable in these models plays a crucial role as illustrated in this study for the case of a three-level quadratic growth curve model. This paper shows clearly how the choice of a time coding affects school effects estimates and their interpretation. A new definition for school effects for growth curve models with random intercepts and slopes is proposed. This study recommends that the choice of a time coding should not only be based on the ease of interpretation and model convergence but also on its consequences on the student status and growth parameter estimates. The current application illustrates that in general the school effects for student growth in well-being and language achievement in secondary school, are greater for student growth than for student status.     

Hierarchical Modelling of Disparities in Preferences for Redistribution*

We evaluate the magnitude of the disparities in the demand for redistribution across European countries and American states during the 2000s. Modelling the demand for redistribution in a multilevel framework, we identify the determinants that contribute the most in predicting support for redistribution. We observe that individual characteristics and contextual variables are associated with demand for redistribution in the same way in Europe and in the US, whereas others exert different influences on the probability of supporting redistribution. We find important differences from some well‐established evidence obtained from data collected for the 1980s and the 1990s.     

EXTREME VALUE THEORY IN FINANCE: A SURVEY

Extreme value theory is concerned with the study of the asymptotic distribution of extreme events, that is to say events which are rare in frequency and huge in magnitude with respect to the majority of observations. Statistical methods derived from it have been employed increasingly in finance, especially for risk measurement. This paper surveys some of those main applications, namely for testing different distributional assumptions for the data, for Value‐at‐Risk and Expected Shortfall calculations, for asset allocation under safety‐first type constraints, and for the study of contagion and dependence across markets under conditions of stress.     

FORMAL AND INFORMAL SECTORS IN CHINA AND INDIA

This paper discusses the estimation of a social accounting matrix that distinguishes between formal and informal activities for China and India for 2000 and 1998–99 respectively. Wage shares for formal/informal employment in China and net domestic product shares for organized/unorganized sectors in India are used as weights to calculate the size of the two sectors. The proposed methodology is a first step towards an integrated approach to account for the dualism of many economies in the developing world. The results can serve as data input for any policy-driven CGE model for developing countries.     

Straight-line models in star-shaped mixtures

Normal-theory inferences are validated in part for straight-line models having star-contoured errors. Adverse effects for the intercept include inconsistent estimation and disturbances in levels of the standard tests. Tests for slope remain exact in level; they are unbiased; and their power through mixing typically dominates the standard Gaussian case. Bounds on level, and envelopes for power curves, are given for certain ensembles and mixtures of distributions, and these are evaluated numerically for selected cases. Effects of mixtures on model diagnostics are examined further.     

The distribution of income between labor and capital is not stable: But why is that so and why does it matter?

I review the literature on labor's share of national income in developed and developing countries. These shares have varied systematically over the post-World War II period, rising until the late 1970s and then falling until now. Explanations for the decline in labor's share include technical progress, globalization and a decline in labor's bargaining power, but none of these explanations can account for both the rise and the decline of labor shares over time and for the similar pattern in developed and developing countries. However, movements in oil prices can account for these movements if energy is included in the production function. Such an explanation has broad implications for income distribution, energy conservation and for the modern theory of growth.     

逆杠杆操作嵌入国际供应链——中国加工制造业企业“走出去”参与国际竞争

在跨国公司利用杠杆效应掀起全球化浪潮的同时,也出现了反方向的逆杠杆操作。逆杠杆操作是深度嵌入国际供应链,参与国际竞争的一种重要策略。本文在对实践资料和有限理论研究分析总结的基础上,从理论上对逆杠杆操作的相关问题进行系统地总结论述,以期对理论研究及中国加工制造业企业参与国际竞争有所借鉴。     

工业产品生态设计研究进展

本文回顾了国外开展工业产品生态设计的进展情况,提出了工业产品生态设计标准体系建设的总体思路和体系框架,提出了生态设计产品评价方法,并给出了工业产品生态设计报告内容框架,为开展工业产品生态设计评价和相关研究工作提供参考,‘‘典型环境友好型产品评价技术标准研究与应用示范”课题参考了上述评价方法。     

融资租赁出租方租赁开始日的会计处理分析

新旧企业会计准则对融资租赁出租方租赁开始日会计处理的相关规定中存在两处重要变化:对租出资产计量属性的选择;初始直接费用的会计处理。将以融资租赁的性质为起点,从出租方投出资产、获得的未来收取资产的权利以及在融资租赁过程中获取的收益三个方面,分析了出租方租赁开始日的相关会计处理,得出结论:新会计准则发生变化的原因为"提供与融资租赁性质更为贴切的会计信息"。     

Growth in transition: Reexamining the roles of factor inputs and geography

In this paper we re-consider the role of factor inputs in determination of long-run growth for transition countries. For this purpose, we estimate cross-sectional growth equations using spatial econometric models. Investments in physical and human capital are found to be significant growth factors for the period after 1994. The estimated coefficients are very similar to those obtained in the literature for developed market economies. We also find evidence for spatial autocorrelation of growth, due mostly to the wars and financial crises in the region. Correction for such correlation increases the significance of the explanatory variables.