市场结构与实际汇率——理论模型和对人民币／美元实际汇率的经验分析

文章在一个存在垄断竞争的两国动态一般均衡模型中分析市场结构变化对实际汇率长期趋势的影响,结论认为,本国可贸易品和不可贸易品市场垄断程度上升会导致本币实际升值,而外国可贸易品和不可贸易品市场垄断程度上升会导致本币实际贬值。对人民币/美元实际汇率和中美两国市场垄断程度关系的实证分析基本验证了模型的结论。文章建议,可以通过拆分重组、发展民营企业、引进外资企业等方式引入竞争、降低垄断程度,从而缓解部分人民币升值压力。     

The demand for money and the real exchange rate misalignments in emerging European countries: A nonlinear approach

This paper investigates the extent to which domestic and foreign money balances in emerging European countries are influenced by foreign exchange considerations. A well-specified and stable relationship between real money demand and the exchange rate can be perceived as an important part of a successful monetary policy. This study examines the long-run determinants of real exchange rates (RERs) associated with the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach and identifies currency misalignments in these countries. The misalignment is later used to test the nonlinear behavior of the demand for money. The results indicate that the RER misalignments have a significant impact on domestic money demand. When the currencies are overvalued, there is a reduction in domestic money demand, and when they are undervalued, there is an increase in domestic money demand. Furthermore, it can be concluded that overvaluation causes an increase in foreign money demand indicating a shift of preference from domestic to foreign currency.     

Transmission of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks under foreign currency lending

This paper analyses the differences in reaction of domestic and foreign currency lending to monetary and exchange rate shocks, using a panel VAR model estimated for the three biggest Central and Eastern European countries (Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary). Our results point toward a drop in domestic currency loans and an increase of foreign currency credit in reaction to monetary policy tightening in Poland and Hungary, suggesting that the presence of foreign currency debt weakens the transmission of monetary policy. A currency depreciation shock leads to an initial decline in foreign currency lending, but also in loans denominated in domestic currency as central banks react to a weaker exchange rate by increasing the interest rates. However, after several quarters, credit in foreign currency accelerates, indicating that borrowers start using it to substitute for depressed domestic currency lending.     

货币替代理论研究述评

货币替代是开放经济中所特有的一种货币性扰动,它会对一国的经济金融形势产生严重影响,如货币政策的独立性和有效性受到影响、政府的财政税基遭到削弱、汇率波动频繁、国际收支失衡、减缓甚至阻碍该国货币的自由兑换进程等。随着中国经济高速增长以及人民币的强烈升值预期,我国出现了人民币正在逐步替代外币美元的反向货币替代现象,同样对我国经济造成了一系列的冲击。本文首先从货币替代的定义、形成机制、经济影响、防范风险的对策等方面对国外文献进行了理论综述;然后,分析了国内学者对货币替代理论的研究,特别研究了我国在目前背景下出现的反向货币替代现象;最后在对国内外货币替代理论文献综述的基础上,对将来的研究方向进行了展望。     

Government expenditure,external and domestic public debt,and economic growth

This paper analyzes the relationship between government expenditure, tax on returns to assets, public debt, and growth in an endogenous growth model. Public debt is composed of two components, domestic debt and external debt. We show conditions for existence, uniqueness, and multiplicity of the steady states. More precisely, existence of steady state requires a sufficiently high productivity and a sufficiently low tax on returns to assets. We also provide the effects of an increase in the tax rate on returns to assets on the steady state. In particular, the relation between public spending and the tax rate has a bell shape. Domestic debt unambiguously increases with tax whereas external debt displays an inverted U‐shaped curve. A high tax rate leads to a reallocation of public debt in favor of domestic debt (to the detriment of external debt). The effect of taxation on consumption (and production) also displays a nonlinear pattern when the output elasticity of capital is lower than unity (the effect is monotonously increasing if this elasticity is unity). We also derive the conditions under which a tax increase can boost or reduce the balanced growth rate.     

Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Pakistan: a disaggregate analysis

This study analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The study utilizes VAR framework and uses quarterly data of Pakistan from 1976Q1 to 2017Q4. The results showed that after an increase in government expenditures, private consumption and prices take three quarters to increase, while private investment follows the declining trend. Private consumption and interest rate are negatively related with taxes, while private investment and prices are positively related with taxes. Real GDP, private consumption and interest rate respond positively with an increase in developmental expenditure, public consumption and public investment. Private investment is negatively related with development expenditure, public consumption and public investment. An increase in direct tax as well as indirect tax leads to an increase in real GDP, private investment and interest rate, while private consumption takes three to five quarters to responds. Private investment and prices are positively related with non-tax revenue, while real GDP, private consumption and interest rate are negatively related. These results support the Keynesian view that government expenditure and taxes are useful tools to stimulate the economic activity, while crowding-out hypothesis holds in Pakistan as well. An active and efficient role of government is required for macroeconomic stability.     

关税、货币政策与中国实际均衡汇率

加入WTO后 ,降低进口品关税等措施将影响人民币均衡汇率水平 ,同时开放经济下国内货币政策、财政政策等宏观经济政策调整也会改变均衡汇率水平。本文运用动态一般均衡的方法 ,探讨中国在加入世界贸易组织之后 ,关税税率调整、货币供应量增长率改变、财政政策调整等措施对实际均衡汇率的长期效应。把货币引入生产函数和消费者的效用函数 ,我们扩展了由Turnovsky提出的两商品资本积累模型 ,利用参数赋值(calibration)的方法进行了均衡状态下的比较静态分析。研究发现降低进口品关税使人民币面临贬值压力 ,而政府增加税收 ,减少对贸易品的消费则有利于人民币的保值和升值。实证研究结果表明 :国外实际利率水平下降 ,实际货币供应量增长率降低都将引起人民币均衡汇率贬值。     

Currency demand and the growth of the underground economy in Canada, 1991-1995

The extent to which the recent introduction of a value-added tax in Canada contributed to the growth of the underground economy remains controversial. If underground economy growth led to increased currency holdings and shifted the currency demand function, forecasts for the period after the introduction of the tax should tend to underestimate currency holdings. Using a cointegration-based error correction mechanism in vector autoregression models, currency demand is estimated using quarterly data for 1968–1990 and dynamic forecasts are made for 1991–1995. On average, currency demand is underpredicted, but by a small amount. The results are consistent with an increase in the underground economy of between 0.01 and 0.3% of GDP as a result of the new tax. If changes in marginal direct tax rates are considered, the underground economy may have grown between 0.1 and 0.7% of GDP in 1991–1995.     

Pros and cons of official dollarization in Eastern Europe

The balance of payments barrier is the biggest obstacle to growth in Eastern Europe. This problem stems from the existence of individual national currencies which dynamically increases the risk associated with capital inflows. Capital inflow leads to both domestic growth and domestic currency real appreciation, reducing net exports to a level insufficient to service international debt obligations stemming from capital inflow. To avoid losses when capital flows are reversed, high domestic interest rates are required to stem capital outflow. Result is the decline of domestic economic activity. Adoption of foreign currency eliminates the need for net exports as the source of revenue needed to service debt obligation, hence it renders the balance of payments as an obstacle to sustained capital flows and economic growth irrelevant.     

Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling

We study the nonlinear dynamics of the real exchange rate towards its behavioral equilibrium value (BEER) using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model framework. We show that the real exchange rate convergence process in the long-run is characterized by nonlinearities for emerging economies, whereas industrialized countries exhibit a linear pattern. Moreover, there exists an asymmetric behavior of the real exchange rate when facing an over- or an undervaluation of the domestic currency. Finally, our results suggest that the real exchange rate may be unable to unwind alone global imbalances.     

Large real exchange rate movements, firm dynamics, and productivity growth

Abstract.  This paper examines the influence of large real exchange rate movements on firm turnover and production scale, and the contribution of these decisions to productivity growth. Our theoretical model predicts that home currency appreciations cause firm closure and reduce surviving firms' exports while boosting domestic sales. The net effect on sales and productivity therefore depends on changes in domestic sales and exports. Taiwanese firm-level data are used to test these predictions. The results show that real currency appreciations lead to scale expansion of surviving firms which in turn raises productivity. Our findings suggest the existence of a significant scale effect.     

The application of risk analysis to the appraisal of optional investment in the electricity supply industry

Although currency substitution is a widely observed phenomenon in both developed and developing counries, most of the studies on currency substitutioin in small open economies have focused on high inflatin South American countries. This paper extends the previous analysis to a newly industrializing, high-inflation economy, namely Turkey. A vector autoregression model has beeb estimated employing the certain policy variables to investigate the dynamics of currency substitution in the economy. Dynamic impulse responses show that the residents have a preference for substitutiong foregn currencies for domestic currency because of reawl-exchange-rate depreciations. The results suggest that to stop or to reverse the on-going currency substition process a plicy aiming to increase the expected real return on domestic assets should be adopted.     

Carry trades and US monetary policy

I document that Federal Reserve expansionary monetary policy has a positive impact on the excess returns arising from currency carry trades. I show that expansive monetary surprises are associated with an increase in future real interest differentials between high interest rate currencies and the US dollar, which leads to higher capital flows toward those currencies and an increase in their returns. Since this increase is not fully compensated by a decrease in the returns from the short position in low interest rate currencies, unexpected monetary expansions in the US result in higher carry trade returns.     

两税合并、税收筹划与盈余管理方式选择

文章以2007年的两税合并为背景,研究上市公司出于税收筹划的目的如何选择盈余管理方式。研究发现,税率下降公司由于税率下降幅度较大,税收筹划收益较高,因此进行了显著向下的应计盈余管理,而没有选择真实盈余管理方式;而税率上升公司则由于存在5年的过渡期,税收筹划收益较低,因此既没有进行显著的应计盈余管理,也没有进行显著的真实盈余管理。这意味着上市公司在进行税收筹划时会综合权衡各种避税方式的成本收益,进而选择最合适的避税方式。政府部门在制定税收政策时必须预先考虑企业可能的税收筹划策略,以达到预期的政策效果。     

Currency restrictions,government transaction policies and currency exchange

Summary. We study how currency restrictions and government transaction policies affect the values of fiat currencies in a two country, divisible good, search model. We show that these policies can generate equilibria where both currencies circulate as medium of exchange and where currency exchange occurs between citizens of different countries. Restrictions on the internal use of foreign currency can cause the domestic currency to be relatively more valuable to domestic agents while taxes on domestic currency create an incentive for home agents to hold foreign currency. We demonstrate that some policies increase prices and lower welfare while others do the reverse. Received: September 5, 2001; revised version: March 1, 2002     

交易成本对股票价格的影响研究--基于深圳股票市场的经验研究

本文利用Umlauf(1993)方法和事件研究法,研究了证券印花税变化对深市大盘指数以及单只股票的影响,证明了印花税税率下调会提高股票价格指数水平,得到一个显著的正收益率,而上调会降低股票价格指数水平,得到一个显著的负收益率这一结论.表明了印花税可以作为一种调控证券市场的宏观政策工具,并且为这种政策调控提供了一定的数量指导.     

Cross‐border mergers and acquisitions: does the exchange rate matter? Some evidence for Canada

Abstract.  Theoretical and empirical studies investigating the relationship between the exchange rate and FDI have generated mixed results. Using bilateral Canadian-U.S. industry level count data on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and conditioning on industry tariff rates, value added share of industries, industry M&A trend activity, and the number of establishments, we find evidence that a real dollar depreciation of the home currency leads to an increase in the probability of foreign M&As but only in high R&D industries. These empirical results are consistent with Blonigen's asset acquisition hypothesis. Results on European M&As of Canadian firms also lean towards this result.     

Macroeconomic Consequences of the EMU

European Monetary Union was sold to the German public on the claim that the common currency would make the European economy stronger and that this would yield significant welfare gains. Such claims are commonly based on three propositions. (1) The common currency will be a strong international currency and the real appreciation of the euro against other currencies will make the EMU citizens richer. (2) The common currency will change labor market relations and increase labor market flexibility, and this will reduce the high rate of structural unemployment in Europe. (3) The common currency will create competition among the governments in the dimension of regulatory and tax policies and induce governments to undertake structural reforms which are long overdue, and this will set the EMU economy on a higher growth path.In this paper we discuss these three claims. We agree with the basic ideas of each of them. But the suggested result of a stronger EMU economy remains questionable. The euro may lead to more or to less labor market inflexibility, and competition among governments in the EMU has a high and a low-regulation equilibrium. Where the euro takes the European economy depends largely on the political willingness to engage in reforms.     

Measuring Exchange Rate Uncertainty: The Case of the Australian Dollar 1969 to 1987

In this article indices of exchange rate uncertainty are measured from the perspective of potential impacts on trade flows. Empirical evidence based on movements in the Australian dollar spot rates and forward rates indicates that there has been an increase in currency risk between 1969 and 1987, which is not surprising given the progressive relaxation of the exchange rate regime during this period. More surprising is the finding that exchange rate uncertainty indices have risen relative to domestic financial price uncertainty indices. This would not have been expected to occur if increased currency risk had been solely due to growing instability of the underlying economic environment. However, since there is evidence that currency risk has been offset by domestic risk, the risk burden of diversified international traders may not have been adversely affected.     

International Transmission of Monetary Shocks and the Non‐neutrality of International Money

Monetary shocks and how they are transmitted internationally are investigated in this paper. The paper shows that where a national currency is used as an international medium of exchange, the international money is non‐neutral. In particular, an increase in the supply of the international money leads to a transfer of real resources to the international money‐issuing country from its trading partner. It also induces an expansion of the nontradable sector in the international money‐issuing country, and an expansion of the tradable sector in its trading partner. The real impact of a monetary shock is greater under a fixed exchange rate system than under a flexible exchange rate system.