Mean reversion of inflation rates in seven Eastern European countries: An application of a fourier quantile unit root test

This paper applies recently developed Fourier quantile unit root test to investigate time-series property of inflation in seven Eastern European countries. This method combines the quantile unit root test with smooth unknown multiple breaks through Fourier function, and has good size and power when the data follows heavy tailed distribution. Our results show that the inflation rates are stationary within each quantile for Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Lithuania, while the other four countries contain a unit root within some quantiles. We also find the speed of inflation adjustment towards to its long-run equilibrium for each country is asymmetric. Our results have important policy implications for monetary authorities in these Eastern European countries.     

Current account sustainability in Latin America

This paper examines the sustainability of the current account deficit in eighteen Latin American countries through the analysis of the stationarity properties of the current account balance. First, we apply traditional unit root tests and consider the possibility of structural breaks. Second, since the current account may have a nonlinear behaviour, we test for linearity in the data and analyse current account stationarity by means of a recently developed nonlinear unit root test. Results from linear and nonlinear unit root tests show that current account sustainability is supported for the majority of Latin American countries with the exception of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Paraguay. For the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela the current account dynamics are best described by a stationary linear model, and by a stationary linear model with a mean shift in years 2003, 1982 and 1980 in Bolivia, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, respectively. In the case of Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala, results show that the current account is best described by a mean-reverting nonlinear process.     

Capital Flows and Economic Growth in Ghana

ABSTRACT

The study examines the differential effects of capital flows on economic growth in Ghana over the period 1970–2014 using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). Breakpoint unit root tests are employed to cater for structural change and breaks in time series. Afterwards, these break dates are fed into the ADRL model as dummy variables to allow for the computation of a more robust cointegrating vector. The findings indicate that in both the short and long run capital flows (i.e. FDI, aid, and external debt) have negative effects on economic growth. However, remittances exhibit positive insignificant elasticity in all the regressions. Further, the empirical results show that while the impact of trade, gross capital formation and population growth on growth are mixed, that of inflation is negative. The results of the study are consistent with the idea that the impact of capital flows in Africa has been exaggerated.     

Corporate Governance, Internal Decision Making, and the Invisible Hand

Proponents of the dominant contemporary model of corporate governance maintain that the shareholder is the primary constituent of the firm. The responsibility for managerial decision makers in this governance system is to maximize shareholder wealth. Neoclassical economists ethically justify this objective with their interpretation of Adam Smith's notion of the Invisible Hand. Using a famous quotation from The Wealth of Nations, they interpret the Invisible Hand as Smith's (An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Methuen &; Co., London) assertion that market participants, in pursuing their own self-interests without regard to the interests of others, will collectively provide the optimal economic benefit to society. We argue that the traditional interpretation of Smith is too narrow and potentially harmful to society. In order to fully understand Smith's notion of the influence of the Invisible Hand on human behavior, one must also consider The Theory of Moral Sentiments. In that work, Smith (The Theory of Moral Sentiments, A. Millar, London) portrays the pursuit of self-interest as only one of several potential motivations for human action. He also acknowledged the existence of a “sympathy principle,” which refers to the ability and propensity of human beings to consider the interests of others. Heilbroner (The Essential Adam Smith, W.W. Norton, New York, p. 59) suggests that Smith's sympathy principle allows one to “determine the appropriate degree of self-interest, the proper display of benevolence, the desirable strictness of justice.” In fact, Smith indicates that (1) a society whose members pursue self-interest without a sense of justice will eventually collapse; (2) a society whose members pursue self-interest checked by their sense of justice alone will survive; (3) a society whose members pursue self-interest, justice, and the interests of others will flourish. Since a more complete reading of Smith indicates that human beings, in considering their own interests, also reflexively consider the interests of others when making decisions, then the traditional corporate governance model appears to be lacking. A broader, multiple stakeholder approach to corporate governance that considers the interests of other constituencies may be more consistent with Smith's views. In particular, Smith's sympathy principle provides a theoretical foundation for a shift away from the narrow, yet dominant, shareholder-based corporate governance model and toward multiple stakeholder models of corporate governance [e.g., Business and Society: A Strategic Approach to Corporate Citizenship, Houghton Mifflin, Boston, MA] and internal decision-making [e.g., Sloan Management Review 38, (1997) 25–37].     

Stability of long-run growth in East Asian countries: New evidence from panel stationarity test with structural breaks

This paper investigates the stability of the steady-state growth process in East Asian region using a novel panel stationarity test, which allows us to control for (a) unobserved heterogeneity in form and date of potential structural breaks in a trend function, (b) the cross-sectional dependence among countries in the panel bootstrapping methods, and (c) the serially correlated errors. Evidence shows that a large majority of countries exhibit slowdowns in economic growth after their structural breaks and thus could not recover from negative shocks and return original balanced growth path.     

New Ventures and their Credit Terms

Using UK bank data for 466 new venture loan applications, we explore the determinants of interest margin, the sanctioning decision and the amount borrowed when these factors are considered simultaneously. Collateral levels greatly influence the size of credits to new ventures, a finding consistent with existing work on firm foundation rates and assets (Black et al., Economic Journal 106, 60–75, 1996; de Meza and Webb, The Economic Journal 109, 153–163, 1999; Evans and Jovanovic, Journal of Political Economy 97(4), 808–827, 1989; Holtz-Eakin et al., 1994). Consistent with the RAND Journal of Economics 25, 334–347, Diversionary Models of debt, firms with larger credits enjoy discounted interest margins even when we have controlled for firm size.     

局部平稳性未知条件下基于ESTAR模型的单位根检验

文章探讨了局部平稳性未知情况下ESTAR模型的单位根检验,提出了修正的Wald统计量,通过模拟给出了其临界值,推导出了该统计量的极限分布,并分析了在有限样本下该统计量的特性。通过蒙特卡罗模拟,该检验统计量具有良好的检验水平和较高的检验功效,进一步通过模拟发现在全局平稳非线性ESTAR模型下,该修正的Wald统计量比KSS型统计量具有更高的检验功效。     

中国通货膨胀持续性的非对称特征研究--基于分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根的研究

基于1990－2013年中国月度CPI数据,本文通过运用分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根检验方法,研究了中国通货膨胀惯性的非对称特征,并分析了不同分位点上的通货膨胀惯性系数、单位根检验结果和半衰期。结果发现：中国的通货膨胀持续期存在明显的非对称特征,1998年之后通货膨胀持续性要显著低于1998年之前;相比于高通货膨胀水平,低通货膨胀水平上的通货膨胀持续性要显著降低。     

The Feldstein Horioka puzzle in E7 countries: Evidence from panel cointegration and asymmetric causality analysis

In this study, the Feldstein–Horioka (FH) puzzle were investigated by the panel cointegration and causality methods over the available period of 1989–2015 for the E7 countries. Westerlund panel cointegration test with multiple structural breaks, and Westerlund and Edgerton regime panel cointegration test results indicate that there is a cointegration relationship between the two variables in the long term. The long-term FH panel coefficients obtained from common correlated effects mean group (CCMEG) and augmented mean group (AMG) estimators are 0.792 and 0.758, respectively. The findings of the Kónya bootstrap panel Granger causality test show that there is no causality relationship between the two variables in the short term. However, in the results of the asymmetric causality test, unidirectional and statistically significant causality is going from the negative shocks of domestic saving to the positive shocks of investment for China, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey. The overall results show that the FH puzzle is valid for the E7 countries.     

On the inflation-unit labor cost relation

This paper investigates the independent effects of wage and productivity growth on inflation utilizing Weintraub's Wage-Cost-Markup (WCM) model. An Alternative WCM model formed by considering asymmetry in adjustment speeds of wage and productivity growth on pricing produces long-run effects conforming to a priori expectations concerning the magnitude and equality of inflation's response to wage and productivity growth. The model also produces improved predictive performance when compared with an estimated equation relating inflation to current unit labor cost growth. The findings offer a price equation that can be employed in econometric models relating inflation to unit labor cost growth.     

9/11 Impact on Teenage Values

Did the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the U.S. cause the values of teenagers in the U.S. to change? Did their previously important self-esteem and self-actualization values become less important and their survival and safety values become more important? Changes in the values of teenagers are important for practitioners, managers, marketers, and researchers to understand because high school students are our current and future employees, managers, and customers, and research has shown that values impact work and consumer-related attitudes and behaviors. Further, studies that compared higher to lower performing for-profit and not-for-profit companies have found that higher performing organizations had strong values that permeated their organizations [Collins J. C., and J. I. Porras: 1994, Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies (New York, Harper Business); O’Reilly, C. A. and J. A. Chatman: 1996, in B. M. Staw and L. L. Cummings (eds.), Research in Organizational Behavior, vol. 18 (JAI Press, Greenwhich, CT), pp. 157–200; O’Reilly, C. A.: 1989, California Management Review 31(4), 9–25; Posner, B. Z., and W. H. Schmidt: 1996, Public Personnel Management, 25(3), 277–298; Rousseau, D.: 1990, Group and Organization Studies 15(4), 448–460; Schein, E. H.: 2004, Organizational Culture and Leadership. San Francisco, Jossey Bass)]. While one study of adults found value changes, no known studies have explored if the values of teenagers also changed post-9/11. This study filled that research gap by exploring the values of a random sample of 1000 U.S. teenagers in grades 9 to 12 pre- and post-9/11, using a demographic questionnaire and the Rokeach Value Survey. The research results indicated that teenage survival, safety, and security values (a world at peace, freedom, national security, and salvation) increased in importance while their self-esteem and self-actualization values (a sense of accomplishment, inner harmony, pleasure, self-respect, and wisdom) decreased in importance, mirroring the changes for adults. The meaning of these findings for practitioners, managers, marketers and researchers was discussed.     

Why is there no momentum in the Taiwan stock market?

Momentum strategies usually do not produce significant profits in emerging stock markets. Chui, Titman, and Wei [Chui, A. C. W., Titman, S., & Wei, K. C. J. (2000). Momentum, legal systems and ownership structure: An analysis of Asian stock markets. Working paper, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Chui, A. C. W., Titman, S., & Wei, K. C. J. (2006). Individualism and momentum around the World. Working Paper, Hong Kong Polytechnic University] argue that the lack of profitability is due to cultural differences. In this paper, we look at one of the largest emerging markets, the Taiwan stock market. We find that DOWN markets occur more frequently and momentum profits are more negative following DOWN markets in Taiwan than in the US. Taken together, our findings suggest that the lack of profits from momentum strategies in emerging markets may be due more to the state-dependence of momentum discovered by Cooper, Gutierrez, and Hameed [Cooper, M. J., Gutierrez R. C., & Hameed, A. (2004). Market states and momentum. Journal of Finance, 59, 1345–1365] rather than to cultural differences.     

Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows in OECD Countries: Evidence from Gravity Panel Data Models

This paper aims to identify the main causes of bilateral trade flows in OECD countries. The specific features of the study include the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as the two important explanatory variables, conduct of unit root tests in the panel data framework and careful consideration of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to bilateral trade, while the distance, measured by both geographical distance and relative factor endowment, between trade partner countries has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and new growth theories.     

Seven Pillars of Business Ethics: Toward a Comprehensive Framework

This article first addresses the question of “why” we teach business ethics. Our answer to “why” provides both a response to those who oppose business ethics courses and a direction for course content. We believe a solid, comprehensive course in business ethics should address not only moral philosophy, ethical dilemmas, and corporate social responsibility – the traditional pillars of the disciple – but also additional areas necessary to make sense of the goings-on in the business world and in the news. These “new pillars,” that we advocate include moral psychology, organizational design and behavior, motivational theory, and a unit on how society, business, and law interact. This last unit builds upon the work of Francis P. McHugh (1988) who urged an integration of “disciplines related to business ethics.” Our seventh pillar would encompass an integration of law, socio-political theory, and policy to demonstrate how business helps construct its own regulatory framework. The concluding recommendation is for a comprehensive “Seven Pillars” of business ethics approach. William Arthur Wines holds a B.S.B.A. with distinction from Northwestern University and a J.D. from the University of Michigan. He is admitted to the practice of law in Minnesota and the State of Washington. His research has appeared in over three dozen journals including the American Business Law Journal, Arizona Law Review, Economics of Education Review, Delaware Journal of Corporate Law, Denver Journal of International Law and Policy, Journal of Business Ethics, Labor Law Journal, Marquette Law Review, Nebraska Law Review, and The William and Mary Journal of Women and the Law. He is the author of two volumes of readings in business ethics and “Ethics, Law, and Business”, published by Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. in 2006. This material is subject to various copyright laws. Please do not transmit electronically, quote, or copy without the prior written permission of the author.     

带结构突变的面板数据单位根伪检验研究

文章利用Monte Carlo模拟方法研究了带结构突变的面板数据单位根伪检验问题。研究发现,只有在突变前后样本数相差较大,或者均值突变不明显时,均值突变才不会导致传统面板单位根检验结果失效;趋势突变在绝大多数情况下将导致传统的面板数据单位根检验失效。     

The Twilight of Domestic Economic Policies

twilight… partial darkness; (fig.) gradual decay or destruction of something once glorious …t. state hysterical state of unawareness of external realities i —Annual Report, Bank for International Settlements, Basle, June 1981, p. 25 —World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, Washington, June 1981, pp. 8–9 —OECD Observer, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, July 1981, p. 13