金钱背后的男人艾伦·格林斯潘

引领美国经济经历了最长增长期的格林斯潘总是穿着深色西服,戴着黑框眼镜,头发已经稀疏,一脸的褶子,讲起话来慢条斯理,而且面无表情,完全是一副老学究的样子,就是这个素来不喜走动,低调平稳的人,其决策可以影响到美国整个国民经济乃至全世界经济在今后几年甚至几十年的发展状况.     

Session Ii: Capitalism and Social Insurance

In what Jeff Gordon describes as “the great risk shift,” large U.S. companies have responded during the last 50 years to the forces of globalization and increased pressure from investors by transferring the risks associated with product and worker obsolescence from their shareholders to their employees. Layoffs have generally meant very large, if not complete, losses of “firm‐specific investments” by displaced employees. And the problem is especially troubling in the U.S., where the employees of large companies lose not only their jobs and income streams, but also often their connection to their social network, to the entire system of social welfare and insurance that tends to be provided by large companies and the workplace. While applauding corporate retraining programs, Gordon suggests that individual company efforts are likely to be overwhelmed by the demand for such services. The solution accordingly lies in the form of government‐provided social insurance—in programs that, whether orchestrated and funded at the state or federal level, provide the most cost‐effective government “match” designed to ensure the preservation of human potential and lifetime earnings power of employees.     

当前的金融和经济危机：一个新自由资本主义的系统性危机

本文给出了这样一种情况,即2008年从美国开始的金融和经济危机意味着新自由资本主义系统性危机的肇始。在过去几十年里推动了一系列长期经济扩张的一些新自由资本主义的制度特征,也同样产生了一种长期的趋势,这种趋势已经导致了系统性的危机。本文还考虑了经济重构的几种可能的未来方向。     

国际金融危机与当代资本主义的新视角

本文从马克思主义视角分析本轮国际金融危机产生的制度性原因,即资本主义社会经济制度的内在矛盾,特别是其基本矛盾长期积累是资本主义国家经济金融危机的根源.同时,本文深入探讨当前的国际金融危机与当代资本主义演化之间的内在关系.     

The Greenspan years: an analysis of the magnitude and speed of the equity market response to FOMC announcements

We examine the impact of monetary policy on the S&P 500 using intraday data. The analysis shows an economically and statistically significant relationship between S&P 500 intraday returns and changes in the Fed funds target rate. The significance and magnitude of the response is dependent on whether the change was expected or unexpected. An expected change in the Fed funds target rate has no impact on prices in the broad equity market; however, an unexpected change of 25 basis points in the Fed funds target rate results in an approximate 48 basis points decline in the broad equity market’s return. The speed of these market reactions is rapid with the equity market reaching a new equilibrium within 15 minutes.

Exploring accounting history and accounting in history

Accounting history, as the history of accounting and the consideration of accounting in history, provides insight into an understanding of accounting in the past, for the present, and into the future. Whilst often viewed as a routine, rule driven practice, the accounting history discipline recognises accounting as having a much wider pervasiveness as social practice and even moral practice. As social practice, accounting affects individual, organisational and societal behaviour. This collection of articles demonstrates the importance of looking at history to provide context and illustrates that understandings of the past lead to comprehension of the present and foresight for the future. The articles in this special issue, international in essence, epitomise the diversity of the accounting history field in exploring accounting in diverse organisations, in investigating accounting in its wider context and in employing different theoretical approaches. In considering the accounting phenomenon that occurred, there is additionally the insight of that which did not occur, the relevance of past events and non-events as an ingredient to better understanding the present and to potentially reshaping the future.The articles explore of the role of actors/agents around accounting and organisational change, how key individuals and networks of individuals, can influence others, both within and external to the organisation, to enact change or prevent change in areas where accounting contributes. It is suggested that these studies could be extended, to consider more widely the influence of the interaction of individuals via prosopographical or similar studies. This collection of articles has global reach, and we make an additional call for more international, interactional or comparative approaches to studies in accounting history. Accounting history studies can further investigate organisational contexts and situations, exploring reporting internally and externally to the organisation and informing current and future accounting and related practices.     

Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration: A Case Study for Central America

Deeper trade integration between Central America and the UnitedStates, as envisaged under the Central American Free Trade Agreement,is likely to lead to closer links between Central American andU.S. business cycles. This article assesses the degree of businesscycle synchronization between Central America and the UnitedStates—relevant not only for a better understanding ofthe influence of important trading partners on the businesscycle fluctuations in the domestic economy but for evaluatingthe costs and benefits of macroeconomic coordination.     

只在美国——次级债危机

美国次级债事件差点引发全球金融危机,次级债的直接损失到底有多大,是否会引起更严重的多米诺骨牌效应?本文运用翔实的资料进行了科学预测,可供读者研究和投资参考。     

中国对欧美直接投资趋势：比较分析

21世纪,中国成为世界上对外直接投资增长最快的国家之一,2016年中国对外直接投资达到峰值。此后,中国对外直接投资出现下降,主要表现为中国对欧美直接投资减少。2018年中国对美国与欧盟的直接投资规模出现较大差距。这里既有中国国内政策的变化,也有对国际贸易摩擦的回应。     

A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy

Drawing on a newly collected historical dataset of fiscal stocks and flows, we analyze the determinants of variation, both across countries and over time, in how fiscal policy responds to increases in the government debt-to-GDP ratio. The fiscal data comprise revenues, primary expenditures, interest bill, and government debt for 55 countries for up to two hundred years. The policy response (increase in the primary fiscal balance in response to debt increases) is found to be significantly weaker when sovereign borrowing costs are low, inflation is high, and potential economic growth worsens unexpectedly. These results are robust to political factors.     

In pursuit of legitimacy: A history behind fair value accounting

An examination of the history of attempts by regulators, practitioners and scholars from the mid nineteenth century to 2005 to establish an appropriate accounting measurement basis for financial reporting here leads to an evaluation of the likelihood of fair value accounting (FVA) practices becoming fully institutionalised. Using concepts drawn from theories of legitimation, it is shown here that historic cost accounting (HCA) only enjoyed an episodic legitimacy in the 1940s–70s and that prior and after this period mixed measurement incorporating market values is routinised. Although principles of FVA have been legitimised to an extent, it is argued here that this has resulted in the practice of mixed measurement bases being taken for granted.     

美国公共政策审计评估:分析与借鉴

20世纪70年代末兴起的新公共管理运动,其核心特征是对公共部门绩效及其责任的高度关注,这一运动对公共部门管理的理论和实践产生了深远影响,推动了预算管理制度的改革,同时为公共政策评估理论和实践的发展奠定了基础。经过近百年的发展,美国审计署作为独立监督部门,通过有效的公共政策审计评估,逐渐在国会和联邦事务中发挥着日益重要的作用。本文通过分析GAO开展公共政策审计评估的特点,提出了我国国家审计应借鉴的经验,开展公共政策审计,实现国家审计免疫系统功能的建议。     

历史的重复:19世纪美国和今日中国

抛开政治和意识形态因素,仅从科技和经济发展的角度来看,美国的发展有些经验值得今天的中国借鉴,有些问题值得思考,比如,高科技浪潮之后一定带来经济衰退吗?经济发展和股票投资有怎样的关系?中国的经济发展到今天哪些行业更值得投资?     

Reading history: comment on Chenoweth and Feitelson

While Chenoweth and Feitelson have done a service to the futures community by comparing the Global 2000 Report with The Resourceful Earth-two important books of the late 1970s/early 1980s—their comparison is flawed in three dimensions: (1) they treat the books as though they were intended to be accurate predictions of the future. Their intention, instead, was to influence public policy in certain, often contrasting, directions; (2) by using in 2000 the same data sources the two books used in the 1970s (rather than better data sources available now, but not then), the authors' comparative conclusions are often flawed; and (3) in spite of this, their own conclusions often do not seem to follow from the comparative data they present: using only the data the two authors present, The Resourceful Earth does not appear to have been more ‘accurate’ in ‘predicting’ the year 2000 than was the Global 2000 report.     

中国棉花期货价格发现功能:基于中美棉花期货的比较研究

本文选取2009年4月1日至2010年1月25日期间中国与美国棉花期货与现货市场203个交易日的价格数据,运用ADF检验、协整分析、Granger因果检验、误差修正模型和方差分解方法,实证检验的结果表明中美棉花现货价格与期货价格之间均存在显著的双向引导关系,且中国和美国棉花期货市场价格在偏离均衡价格时,都能够在短期内趋近于长期均衡.由此看来我国棉花期货市场价格发现功能已经初步具备,但由于我国棉花期货市场成立时间较短,在价格形成方面有待于进一步完善成熟.     

美债:历史、现实与前景

2011年注定是风雨变幻的一年,而美债危机所掀起的海啸无疑是重大事件。美债发展到今天似乎成了一种"恶",是一种不安定因素。然而,历史上的美债是被美国政治家掌控的金融战略,不断演绎着会借债、敢借债、兴于国债的历史,乃至形成美国特有的生存与发展的金融方式,请看本栏目文章《追溯美国国