中国股票市场行为与投资者情绪

The relationship among stock returns, market volatilities and individual investor sentiment is an important topic in behavioral economics and finance. This paper uses a unique data set—China’s newly opened stock trading accounts to test the relationships among stock returns, volatilities and individual investor sentiment in the Chinese stock market. It is found that there is a positive relationship between shifts in sentiment and stock returns, and that shifts in sentiment are negatively correlated with market volatility, that is to say, volatility increases (decreases) when investors become more bearish (bullish).      

IFRS,FDI, economic growth and human development: The experience of Anglophone and Francophone African countries

This study examines the relationships of IFRS, FDI, human development and economic growth in Anglophone and Francophone African countries between 1997 and 2017. We find that FDI, openness, schooling, and control of corruption have a positive effect of countries' decisions to adopt IFRS. The results also indicate that FDI has a positive impact on economic growth, and that this positive impact is enhanced by IFRS. Furthermore, we find that Anglophone and common law African countries adopt IFRS more than Francophone countries. Our analysis shows that FDI is positively related to decisions to adopt IFRS in both groups.     

MNE market entry and social investment in battle-weary countries: Evidence from Heineken

To contribute to our understanding of MNE strategy in battle-weary countries, we explore the case of Heineken as it entered and made social investments in these countries prior to 2020. In a first analysis we explore links between host country violence and entry strategy. In a second analysis we compare post-entry social investment in an improving context (Ethiopia) with a worsening context of violence (Myanmar). The case helps to integrate various streams of international business literature pertaining to strategy in conflict zones. It underlines the need to consider violence, entry strategy and subsequent social investment in the same analytical frame.     

The role of China's aid and ODI in the economic growth of African countries

Has external capital, such as foreign aid and foreign direct investment (FDI), been able to help the economic growth in host countries? Our paper examines the effects of China's aid and its overseas direct investment (ODI) on economic growth in 47 African countries from 2003 to 2013. We find that China's aid has significant positive effects on African economic growth. However, China's ODI plays no major role in African countries' economic growth. In addition, the relationship between aid and growth varies according to the different categories of aid, and its marginal contribution is nonlinear.     

Technology policies and the growth of regions: Evidence from four countries

Since the 1980s, all industrialized countries have established technology policies aimed at increasing economic growth through the development of scientific and technical resources. Most technology policy initiates are at the national level and are predominantly concerned with levels of funding. This is a problem because high-tech industrial development is observed to be regional in nature and national technology policies do not explicitly pursue regional goals. This paper tests two hypotheses. First, that the different explicit and implicit technology policies have had a significant, although unintended, impact on the development of a special type of space, the high-tech regions. Next, that the spatial effects of government technology policy promote high-tech regions over other regions, although this influence is primarily of an implicit or unintended nature.     

Entrepreneurship,economic development,and institutional environment: evidence from OECD countries

The purpose of this article is to establish a typology of entrepreneurship for OECD countries over the 1999–2012 period. Our aim is to draw a distinction between managerial and entrepreneurial economies, to identify groups of countries with similar economic and entrepreneurial activity variables, and to determine the economic and institutional drivers of entrepreneurial activities in each group. We show that the level of development, sectoral specialization, and institutional variables related to entrepreneurship, functioning of the labor market, and openness of the country are decisive to understand differences in entrepreneurship activity across countries. Results show that the pre-crisis period, from 1999 to 2008, is a period of growth favorable to entrepreneurship. The financial crisis involved a break in entrepreneurial dynamism, with agricultural economies withstanding the financial crisis better. The 2010–2012 period of recovery is a period of a sharp slowdown in entrepreneurial activity, during which the countries that are less dependent on the financial sector proved to be the most resilient in terms of entrepreneurial activity. Nevertheless, it is the advanced knowledge economies with developed financial markets, fewer institutional regulatory constraints, and greater scope for qualitative entrepreneurship that show lower unemployment rates. These findings have important implications for the implementation of public policy in order to promote entrepreneurial activity and reduce unemployment.     

Central banks' supervisory guidance on corporate governance and bank stability: Evidence from African countries

This paper focuses on the identification of the causal relationship between central banks' supervisory guidance and individual bank stability. We propose and test the hypothesis that this causal relationship is mediated by the degree to which banks comply with their central bank's corporate governance recommendations. Specifically, we exploit the fact that there is considerable cross-country heterogeneity in providing supervisory guidance. Our recursive two-equation system is equivalent to an endogenous treatment effect model in which the treatment is the provision of supervisory guidance. We find that institutional factors, in particular the legal family of origin, political stability, contract enforcement and strength of investor protection promote provision of supervisory guidance. If a central bank has published supervisory guidance, local banks show better internal governance and higher stability.     

Industrial policy,structural transformation and economic growth: Evidence from China

Industrial policy is an important means for governments to promote industrial development and accelerate economic growth. This paper mainly uses the Chinese Law and Regulation Database as the source of the relevant laws and regulations of China’s industrial policies from 2003 to 2015. On this basis, it empirically examines the impact of industrial policies on economic growth. The study finds that China’s industrial policy has significant positive effects on economic growth and that industrial structure rationalization is an important channel of industrial policy to improve economic growth. The findings are also valid under a series of robustness tests and endogenous corrections. The results of heterogeneity tests confirm that there are heterogeneous effects pertaining to industrial policy on economic growth among different subregional areas, administrative levels, industrial development stages, and industrial policy types. Overall, this paper supports the hypothesis that industrial policy has positive effects on economic growth and, accordingly, provides a basis for industrial policy implementation.     

中国股市、银行与经济增长

通过利用经济增长指标、股市指标和金融发展水平指标,对中国股市、银行业和宏观经济数据进行实证研究发现:我国银行业发展水平和贷款率指标,对于人均实际的GDP增长具有一定的正向推动关系,而且成交额比率与人均实际GDP的增长和储蓄存款存在着反向作用。从而得出的结论是,我国银行业的发展水平对宏观经济的影响要远远强于股市的影响作用。     

The effects of stock market development on growth and private investment in lower-income countries

Recent literature argues that stock market liberalisation has positive long- and short-run effects on macroeconomic growth and private investment, respectively. However, given a sample of up to 64 countries from 1981 through 1998, positive results for long-run growth are largely dependent on the inclusion of higher-income countries in regression samples, which limits the relevance for lower-income nations. Indeed, some evidence in this study indicates that stock market development has a more positive impact on growth for greater levels of per capita GDP, lower levels of country credit risk, and higher levels of legal development. Similarly, using a sample of 26 countries from 1981 through 1998, lagged equity price appreciation seems to boost private investment growth in the short-run, but only in rich countries. All in all, these results imply subdued enthusiasm regarding emerging equity market development.     

Export diversification,composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis

We investigate the export-growth relationship at disaggregate levels – disaggregation both at the country level and at the level of exports – focusing on the diversification and the composition of exports of countries. In a sample of 65 countries for the period 1965–2005 the dynamic panel estimation reveals that both diversification and composition of exports are important determinants of economic growth after controlling for the impacts of other variables like lagged income, investment, and infrastructure. There is a critical level of export concentration beyond which increasing export specialization leads to higher growth. Below this critical level, diversification of exports matters for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Growth of high technology exports also contributes tothe output growth; the relationship becomes stronger for countries that have share of manufacturing exports in their total exports greater than the world average. These results are robust even when the dataset isclassified in four sub-panels based on the export-economic growth relationship.     

异质信念与股票收益——基于我国股票市场的实证研究

本文以经调整后的换手率和收益波动率作为投资者异质信念的代理指标,采用1997—2007年间的样本数据,分别运用资产组合分析法和截面收益回归法,直接验证在我国股票市场上投资者异质信念对股票收益的影响。本文的研究发现支持了基于异质信念假设的资产定价理论:在卖空限制约束下,异质信念导致当期股价高估,与股票未来收益负相关。文章的结论经FF四因素模型调整后依然成立。本文还发现,与美国股票市场相比,我国股票市场高估程度更严重,持续时间更长。因此,引入卖空机制可以在一定程度上解决我国股票市场高估问题。     

Business innovations from emerging market countries into developed countries: Implications for multinationals from developed countries

This article addresses innovation and emerging‐market countries. Both are important topics in the business world today. The focus of this article is on the importance of innovation and market development in emerging‐market countries by Western multinational companies typically based in North America and Western Europe. The authors of this article argue that as Western multinationals innovate and develop emerging markets, this will give multinationals the opportunity not only to compete effectively in emerging markets but also to protect their home markets in developed countries. Implications for Western multinationals are discussed. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Export diversification,margins and economic growth at industrial level: Evidence from Thailand

This paper examines the relationship between export diversification, export margins and economic growth at the industry level using Thailand as a case study during 2002–16. Our results show that the effects of export diversification and margins on economic growth vary across industries. Export diversification helps boost growth only in some sectors, including electronics, automotive and chemicals, plastic and rubber, while in the processed food, and textiles and apparel industries, specialisation matters more in promoting growth. In almost all industries, a non-linear relationship between diversification and economic growth is not revealed, except in textiles and apparel. The diversification is crucial in enhancing the impact of exports on growth only in the processed food and textiles and apparel industries. Expansion of intensive margins plays an important role in boosting growth in key industries within Thailand. The role of extensive margins, both in terms of new products and new market destinations, in promoting economic growth is limited. For extensive margins (new products), it is found to be significant in boosting economic growth only in processed food and textiles and apparel, while in the case of extensive margins (new market destinations), its significance in boosting growth is revealed only in the electronics sector.     

Export‐led growth and its determinants: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries

In this study, we assess the importance of exports and global value chain (GVC) participation for economic growth. Using novel methods and an extensive data set, we decompose GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) to show that in a large part of the period of transition and integration with the EU, exports have played a predominant role in shaping economic growth. We also show that exports have been the major factor driving the convergence of the CEECs with their advanced counterparts. We employ panel methods to analyse the determinants of growth of exported value added and show that the major growth drivers in the analysed period of 1995–2014 are GVC participation, imports of technology and capital deepening.Jel classificationC23, F21, O33     

Asymmetric effects of oil price changes on the balance of trade: Evidence from selected African countries

The main new contribution of this study was to delve into the asymmetric impacts of changes in oil prices on the trade balance in the framework of six major African economies. To tackle this topic carefully, we employ three measures of external balances—oil, non‐oil and total trade balances, and assess the asymmetric response of the external balances of those six economies to oil price changes in the short and long run. Like most previous studies, we first assume the impacts of oil price fluctuations to be symmetric and employ the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to explore the topic. We then separate oil price hikes from oil price plunges and implement the non‐linear ARDL method to reveal that the price of crude oil has a vital role to play in the trade balances for those six African economies. Further, there is evidence of significant asymmetric impacts of oil prices typically on the oil trade balance of Africa's top oil producing countries. For the non‐oil and total trade balances, in contrast, there is little evidence of the asymmetry of oil price changes.     

Flight-to-liquidity: Evidence from China's stock market

In an order-driven and strictly regulated stock market, illiquidity risks' effects on asset pricing should be highlighted, particularly in such extreme market conditions as those in China. This paper utilizes panel data from China's stock market in an attempt to answer whether the illiquidity risk in various dimensions—including price impacts, the transaction speed, trading volume, transaction costs, and asymmetric information—can explain stock returns. We find that almost all dimensions of stock illiquidity are positively associated with excess stock returns. More importantly, smaller, less-liquid stocks suffer more liquidity costs, providing a strong evidence for “flight-to-liquidity.” Additionally, the transaction costs and asymmetric information, denoted by bid-ask spreads, robustly account for these illiquidity effects on stock pricing and differ from the findings in the U.S. market. We also find that the “flight-to-liquidity” can partially explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle, investors' gambling, and herding psychologies. This study provides substantial policy implications in regulation and portfolio management for emerging markets.     

Impact of services trade on economic growth and current account balance: Evidence from India

This paper aims to study the impact of services trade on India’s economic growth and current account balance during the post-reform period. Earlier studies on this subject have mostly looked at the goods sector. Indian studies which analysed services-led growth from a balance of payments perspective suffered from a bias of having focused only on call-centre exports. In such a context, this study brings in a novel approach by using the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth model and autoregressive distributed lag cointegration to estimate the balance of payments equilibrium growth rate for India’s service sector. The key service sub-sectors are also identified using input–output tables and the TIVA database. This study finds that India’s service sector is growing at a rate almost equal to its balance of payments equilibrium growth rate under the assumption of constant relative prices in international trade, and at a rate lower than the equilibrium growth rate when this assumption is relaxed. Among the major services in India’s export basket, construction, transport and business services are found to exhibit strong backward linkages. Foreign value-added content in India’s services exports is found to be highest in the case of business services, transport services and telecommunications.     

Linkage between international trade and economic growth in GCC countries: Empirical evidence from PMG estimation approach

This paper explores the empirical evidence of the links between economic growth and openness to international trade by controlling for auxiliary variables in the model for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the annual sample period 1980–2010. After testing for cointegration based on a recent bootstrap panel test, we employ the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation technique of M.H. Pesaran, Y. Shin, and R. Smith (1999. “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels”. Journal of the American Statistical Association 94: 621–634) that is appropriate for drawing sharper conclusions in dynamic heterogeneous panels by considering long-run equilibrium relations. The results show evidence of cointegration relationship between the variables of interest, and reveal that economic growth responds positively to trade openness over both the short run and long run. The evidence is robust to using various trade openness measures and to alternative model specifications, suggesting thus the non-fragility of the linkage between economic growth and openness to international trade for the GCC region. Our findings are then promising and support the view that economic growth is directly and robustly linked to trade openness for the GCC countries.     

Regional location of multinational corporation subsidiaries and economic development contribution: Evidence from the UK

The regional location of multinational corporation (MNC) subsidiaries in their host country and their associated entrepreneurial output and networking activities are likely to affect their economic development contribution, measured in terms of technology and management know-how transfers; enhancement of innovativeness of other firms; and company spinoffs. This theme has considerable research and public policy value. We investigate the issue drawing from a large-scale study of 264 MNC subsidiaries based in the UK. The findings show that activities in developed regions are associated with higher economic development contribution than those in less developed regions. Moreover, entrepreneurial output and networking with partners external to the MNC system positively affect economic development contribution. Key implications of this study are that entrepreneurship critically influences economic development contribution, underlying the importance of the MNC subsidiary research stream; and that the policy practice of supply-side measures fostering entrepreneurial output and embeddedness in local networks seems to be appropriate to pursue.