South–North Refugee Migration: Lessons for Development Cooperation

Migration has become a major concern of European development policies. By improving socio–economic and political conditions through development cooperation, a reduction of South–North migration flows is envisaged. This new approach is examined by analyzing the causes of asylum migration from developing countries to Germany. The econometric findings suggest that support of democracy, economic development and trade will not reduce migration, at least not in the medium-run. However, restrictive legal measures work. Migration control by international development cooperation therefore seems to need a long–term perspective.     

Redefining Europe: Russia and the 2015 Refugee Crisis

ABSTRACT

This article uses approaches embedded in practical and popular geopolitics for analysing how Russia capitalizes on the refugee crisis to redefine Europe. Two of Russia’s European policies are at the centre of this analysis: 1) Moscow’s direct appeal to Russian-speaking communities, and 2) the Kremlin’s liaisons with Eurosceptic parties of national conservative background. The main questions these two policies raise are: 1) how Russia benefits from anti-refugee attitudes among European national conservative groups, and 2) how illustrative Russia’s policies are of Moscow’s strategy toward Europe in the context of the refugee crisis. The article argues that, for Russia, these two policies constitute a strategy of re-entry into Europe from which Moscow was increasingly isolated in the aftermath of the annexation of Crimea in 2014. In this context, the authors claim that the refugee crisis has widened room for Russia’s return to the European (geo)political scene through a strategy of redefining Europe in more conservative and traditionalist terms, as opposed to the liberal cosmopolitanism of EU’s project. Using the concepts of trans-ideology and biopolitics, the article claims that Russia’s strategy of re-entry includes narratives of othering today’s Orientalized Europe and salvaging it from liberal tolerance, political correctness and cultural fragmentation.     

On the Economics of Refugee Flows

Although the phenomenon of refugee flows is not devoid of economic connotations, it has so far been investigated primarily by political scientists and sociologists. The analytical tools of economic inquiry have not yet been applied to this subject, although it stands to reason that such a study will contribute to our understanding of why refugee flows occur and will guide the policy response. This note illustrates how economic analysis can be brought to bear on three key aspects of refugee flows: fear, poverty, and group movement.     

Long-Run and Short-Run Behavior of Korea's Current Account

Recent research indicates that an error correction mechanism exists for current account imbalances in Germany, Japan, and the United States. In this paper, I test whether current account imbalances in Korea are also self-correcting. The Empirical results are ambiguous: while no conintegrating relationship can be detected, and error correction mechanism can. Using standard econometric methods, estimates of a small-scale macroeconomic model detect no effect of Korea's lagged net foreign claim position on any relevant variable. However, I do find that the current account is influenced by Korea's lagged net foreign claim position in a direct estimate of Korea's current account. [F32]     

Peril of the Inflation Exit Condition

Recent empirical evidence on monetary policy in Japan suggests that exits from the zero‐interest‐rate policy triggered by policy shocks can be expansionary. This paper provides theoretical examples of such expansionary policy‐induced exits. The examples suggest that the exit condition (the Bank of Japan’s stated commitment of not exiting from the zero‐rate regime unless the inflation rate rises above a certain threshold) may have made it difficult for the economy to escape from the liquidity trap.     

外资银行进入模式选择——考虑退出期权

利用实物期权方法,在考虑未来退出灵活性的情况下,分析了外资银行对进入中国市场模式的选择。研究结果表明:随着市场波动率和外资银行退出收益率的增加,外资银行选择少数股权进入模式时的退出价值大于选择独立发展进入模式时的退出期权价值,因此外资银行倾向于选择少数股权进入;随着外资银行经营效率的提高和中资银行本土化优势的减弱,外资银行倾向于选择独立发展模式进入。     

退出钉住美元的时机与路径选择

当前人民币升值压力有其客观经济基础,潜在的美元危机使退出钉住美元变得迫切。从国际经验看,选择钉住一篮子货币或爬行区间难以化解已有的升值压力,也不完全适应中国未来经济发展的需要。近期人民币汇率改革应选择有管理浮动,通过制度安排让汇率动起来,通过政策调整保持汇率的基本稳定。     

产业投资基金的退出机制研究

<正>产业投资基金的退出有两个层面 的含义，一是产业投资基金的投资者 从基金中退出，二是产业投资基金从 投资项目中退出。第一个层面的退出 涉及到投资者的本金收回和资本收益 实现，也是基金投资者投资资金流动 性的体现。而第二个层面的退出则是 基金收益实现的保障，是基金所投资 产流动性的体现。第二个层面的退出， 是本文研究的主体。 产业投资基金的收益主要有两个 来源。一是所投资企业或项目的经常 性现金收入，如股利、分红、房租收入 等；另一个就是退出项目时获取的资     

韩国的农业产业及农业生物技术产业

20世纪70-80年代,韩国农业产业增长较快.从90年代开始,随着工业化进程的加快,农业在国民经济中所占比例不断下降.进入21世纪以后,韩国在形成农业规模经济、农业生产力方式和产品结构调整及科技扶农等方面取得了一些成效.虽然,韩国在改善农业基础设施,推动农村电气化、信息化以及发展农村工业等方面取得不少成绩,但由于农业生产规模和品种的局限,以及农业技术和农业生物技术产业发展滞后的影响,生产力水平提高缓慢.总的看,韩国现代农业技术和农业生物技术产业尚处于初级发展阶段,农业产业依然是韩国发展的软肋,并且渐渐成了经济改革的拖累.     

2011年韩国科技管理体制和成果

2011年,在韩国政府强有力干预下,由原来韩国各相关部委分散实施的科技管理、协调职能已逐步统一划归韩国国家科委.在确立未来经济研发战略五大支柱产业的基础上,其科技政策支持向绿色、新增长动力产业倾斜,同时加大了对重点技术领域研发的投入比重,加大“走出去”拓展国际科技合作的力度.2011年,韩国造船业翻身重夺全球第一,生物医药领域突飞猛进,电子软件及通信技术取得突破,绿色汽车产业及新能源领域发展迅速,等等.虽然韩国企业的技术水平仍落后于美国、日本等发达国家,但与中国企业的技术差距在明显缩小.     

Entry, Exit and Productivity: Empirical Results for German Manufacturing Industries

Abstract. From a model by Hopenhayn, three hypotheses can be derived: (H1) Firms that exit in year t were less productive in t− 1 than firms that continue to produce in t. (H2) Firms that enter in year t are less productive than incumbent firms in year t. (H3) Surviving firms from an entry cohort were more productive than non-surviving firms from this cohort in the start year. This paper uses unique newly available panel datasets for all manufacturing plants from Germany (1995–2002) to test these hypotheses. All three hypotheses are supported empirically for West and East Germany.     

创业与失业:难民效应与企业家效应的实证检验

本文利用广东省21个地区1991-2007年面板数据,对自雇创业率与失业率的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,失业率变化对自雇创业率变化影响不显著,而自雇创业率变化对随后的失业率变化有显著的负向影响。这一结果支持了创业可降低失业的企业家效应假说,并不支持高失业率会影响自雇创业率的难民效应假说。上述发现从经验证据上支持了我国当前实施的"以创业带动就业"的扩大就业发展战略的合理性,并蕴含着一定的政策含义。     

Efficiency, Bond of Association and Exit Patterns in Credit Unions: Australian Evidence

Data envelopment analysis is used in this study to provide measures of the efficiency of individual credit unions in the Australian state of Victoria in the period 1992–5. The resulting measures are consistent with those reported in comparable studies. There is no evidence that over the period of the study, the 'average' credit union moved closer to the efficient frontier. Efficiency measures are analysed according to the bond of association and the results are consistent with the proposition that a tighter bond will tend to reduce operating costs. In the period of the study there were a large number of exits by merger, including exits by small credit unions with high efficiency measures. Possible explanations in terms of the expected benefits to the members of acquiring and exiting credit unions are suggested and evaluated.     

Exit, sunk costs and the selection of firms

Summary. This paper aims to identify the cost characteristics of exiting firms whenever firms are playing an infinite horizon supergame with time-invariant cost and demand functions. With more than two firms, the problem of which firms exit is quite similar to a coalition formation one. Solving this coalition formation problem, we obtain that the exiting firms are those with higher average cost functions whenever reentry is costless while, whenever reentry is unprofitable, the exiting firms are those with lower marginal (and possibly average) cost functions. Since reentry costs are typically sunk, our analysis points out that the presence of sunk costs affects not only the size (as it is well known) but also the composition of the industry. Received: April 5, 1995; revised version: January 28, 1998     

Emissions Trading with Updated Allocation: Effects on Entry/Exit and Distribution

Allocation of emissions allowances may have significant distributional and efficiency effects. It is well known that cost-efficiency may be achieved if allowances are auctioned or distributed in a lump sum manner, e.g., based on emissions levels before the start of the system (‘grandfathering’). Böhringer and Lange (Eur Econ Rev 49:2041–2055, 2005) show that a cost-effective outcome can also be achieved if the base year for allocation is continually updated (‘updating’), given that banking and borrowing are prohibited. In this paper we examine whether updating alters the entry and exit conditions for firms compared to grandfathering, and how it affects profits for new and existing firms. We find that the two schemes function surprisingly similar: First, the incentives to entry and exit are identical. Second, the total value of free quotas to existing firms, based on emissions before the system starts, is also identical without any auctioning. With updating initial claims for free allowances have a shorter lifetime compared to grandfathering, but quota prices are higher as firms anticipate the effect of current emissions on future claims to free allowances. The two effects exactly cancel each other out. If there is some combination of auction and free allocation, the total value of free quotas will always be highest under grandfathering if the auction rate is the same. Entry and exit incentives are still equal.     

中国问题银行退出路径研究——基于国际比较视角

完善的市场退出机制是一个成熟、高效金融市场应具备的特征之一。市场竞争的结果有好有坏,市场应该有进有退,劣汰才能优胜,银行业建立平稳有序的退出通道、纠错机制是完善市场的重要组成部分。相对于发达国家,中国问题银行市场退出还存在政府干预过多,政府主导行政色彩浓厚,处置手段和路径单一,规则不透明、不确定,法律不健全等问题,对此应采取救助、收购或兼并、重组、接管、解散、撤销、破产等路径选择。