Monte Carlo Option Pricing for Tempered Stable (CGMY) Processes

Lévy processes are popular models for stock price behavior since they allow to take into account jump risk and reproduce the implied volatility smile. In this paper, we focus on the tempered stable (also known as CGMY) processes, which form a flexible 6-parameter family of Lévy processes with infinite jump intensity. It is shown that under an appropriate equivalent probability measure a tempered stable process becomes a stable process whose increments can be simulated exactly. This provides a fast Monte Carlo algorithm for computing the expectation of any functional of tempered stable process. We use our method to price European options and compare the results to a recent approximate simulation method for tempered stable process by Madan and Yor (CGMY and Meixner Subordinators are absolutely continuous with respect to one sided stable subordinators, 2005).     

Stable Shareholdings,the Decision Horizon Problem and Earnings Smoothing

Prior studies argue that stable shareholders do not encourage firm managers to manage their earnings to achieve short‐term earnings goals. They also state that firm managers with stable shareholders have an incentive to report smooth earnings to maintain long‐term relationships with such shareholders. We focus on cross‐shareholdings and stable shareholdings owned by financial institutions as stable shareholdings in Japan, and investigate the effect of these ownership structures on earnings management patterns. Specifically, we hypothesize that stable shareholdings are positively associated with the informational components of earnings smoothing. Consistent with our hypothesis, we first find that as stable shareholdings increase, managers are more likely to conduct earnings smoothing that provides useful information to stable shareholders. Further, our additional analysis shows that stable shareholdings reduce incentives for managers to cut discretionary expenditures to meet short‐term earnings benchmarks, implying that stable shareholdings could reduce the possibility of a myopic problem. These results suggest that managers with stable shareholdings tend to report smoother and less volatile earnings, and do not tend to pursue earnings management to attain short‐term earnings targets.     

Does stable ownership create value? Evidence from the global financial crisis

We investigate the value of stable ownership for a sample of European firms using the global financial crisis as an exogenous shock and pre-and post-crisis years as benchmark periods. Consistent with the argument that stable ownership allows managers to focus on the creation of long-term value, we find that stable ownership resulted in higher stock returns and a higher market-to-book ratio during the crisis. This positive effect of stable ownership was not reversed after the crisis. Stable institutional blockholdings were more valuable in countries with weaker investor protection. However, the positive effect does not apply to firms in which a family is the largest blockholder. Finally, we also find that ownership stability was associated with a higher level of investments, illustrating that stable ownership affects real corporate decisions.

     

美国稳定价值基金探讨

稳定价值基金（Stable Value Fund）通过保证本金和累计利息达到避免净值波动和收益稳定的投资目标，实现货币市场基金高流动性和债券基金更高收益的最佳组合，为投资者提供稳定的投资价值。本文介绍了美国稳定价值基金的发展概况，分析了其运作机制、核心优势及其发展的历史原因，并对稳定价值基金与保本基金做了比较。     

When Preferences for a Stable Interest Rate Become Self‐Defeating

Monetary policymakers often seem to have preferences for a stable interest rate, in addition to stable inflation and output. In this paper, we investigate the implications of having an interest rate level term in the loss function when the policymaker lacks commitment technology. We show that such preferences may become self‐defeating, in the sense that they generate a less stable interest rate than in the case without preferences for interest rate stability.     

CDS as insurance: Leaky lifeboats in stormy seas

What market features of financial risk transfer exacerbate counterparty risk? To analyze this, we formulate a model which elucidates important differences between financial risk transfer and traditional insurance, using the example of Credit Default Swaps (CDS). We allow for (heterogeneous) insurer insolvency, which captures the possibility that relatively risky counterparties may exist in the market. Further, we find that stable insurers become less stable as the price of the contract decreases. The analysis includes insured parties that have heterogeneous motivations for purchasing CDS. For example, some may own the underlying asset and purchase CDS for risk management, while others buy these contracts purely for trading purposes. We show that traders will choose to contract with less stable insurers, resulting in higher counterparty risk in this market relative to that of traditional insurance; however, a regulatory policy that removes traders can, perversely, cause stable counterparties to become less stable. We conclude with two extensions of the model that consider a Central Counterparty (CCP) arrangement and the consequences of asymmetric information over insurer type.     

The Distributional Characteristics of a Selection of Contracts Traded on the London International Financial Futures Exchange

This study examines the distributional properties of futures prices for contracts traded on LIFFE. A filtering process is employed to remove day of the week and holiday effects, a maturity effect, moving average effects and the influence of an asset's conditional variance from the raw returns series. Alternative distributional models from the stable paretian and ARCH families are examined for their applicability to futures data using a stability under additions. The results conclusively reject the hypothesis that futures returns are normally distributed with findings in favour of two related hypotheses – the mixtures of stable distribution and the ordinary stable distribution.     

The Distributional Characteristics of a Selection of Contracts Traded on the London International Financial Futures Exchange

This study examines the distributional properties of futures prices for contracts traded on LIFFE. A filtering process is employed to remove day of the week and holiday effects, a maturity effect, moving average effects and the influence of an asset's conditional variance from the raw returns series. Alternative distributional models from the stable paretian and ARCH families are examined for their applicability to futures data using a stability under additions. The results conclusively reject the hypothesis that futures returns are normally distributed with findings in favour of two related hypotheses – the mixtures of stable distribution and the ordinary stable distribution.     

Heavy-tailed Behavior of Commodity Price Distribution and Optimal Hedging Demand

This study explores the importance of imposing a correct distributional hypothesis in a risk management strategy, by comparing hedge ratios under the restrictive normality assumption to those under the generalized stable distribution. Concepts are illustrated for the case of a representative Pennsylvania dairy farm manager who purchases corn as a feed input. The results show that time processes of corn prices and basis risk in five Pennsylvania regions do not correspond to the normal distribution, and they more correctly correspond to one of the stable distribution set. The estimated hedge ratios under the stable distribution are typically larger than those under the normal distribution. The difference would be a bias from imposing a wrong distributional assumption.     

CONSIDERING DIVIDEND STABILITY IN THE RELATION BETWEEN DIVIDEND YIELDS AND STOCK RETURNS

Previous studies show that firms with long records of paying stable dividends are unique. However, research on the relation between dividend yields and stock returns focuses on shorter-term dividend yield measures without considering long-term dividend stability. This article shows that high-yield stocks are not in fact homogeneous, but that stocks with high yields and stable dividends behave differently from stocks with only a high yield. These differences persist even after controlling for firm size, the January effect, and systematic risk, suggesting distinctive risk characteristics for stocks with both high yields and stable dividends.     

Stochastic stable population theory with continuous time. I

Abstract

This paper contains a systematic presentation of time-continuous stable population theory in modern probabilistic dress. The life-time births of an individual are represented by an inhomogeneous Poisson process stopped at death, and an aggregate of such processes on the individual level constitutes the population process. Forward and backward renewal relations are established for the first moments of the main functionals of the process and for their densities. Their asymptotic convergence to a stable form is studied, and the stable age distribution is given some attention. It is a distinguishing feature of the present paper that rigorous proofs are given for results usually set up by intuitive reasoning only.     

对完善我国股票市场价格稳定机制的探讨

价格波动性是股票市场与生俱来的特性,也是股票市场存在并正常运行的前提条件。但如果股价波动过大,价格变化不连续,就必然加大投资风险,影响股票市场的规范和稳定发展。因此,必须建立和完善股票市场价格稳定机制。     

The Seasonal Stability of the Factor Structure of Stock Returns

This paper investigates the month-by-month stability of (a) daily returns and correlation coefficients of stock returns, (b) correlation and covariance matrices, (c) number of return-generating factors, and (d) the APT pricing relationship. The results show that there is a January effect and a small-firm effect in stock returns. Correlation matrices are more stable than covariance matrices, but both types of matrices are not stable across months and across the sample groups. The number of return-generating factors is rather stable most of the time and for most of the sample groups, but there is some significant instability that is related to the average correlation coefficients among stocks. The APT pricing relationship does not seem to be supported by the two-stage process using the maximum-likelihood factor analysis.     

Financial market models with Lévy processes and time-varying volatility

Asset management and pricing models require the proper modeling of the return distribution of financial assets. While the return distribution used in the traditional theories of asset pricing and portfolio selection is the normal distribution, numerous studies that have investigated the empirical behavior of asset returns in financial markets throughout the world reject the hypothesis that asset return distributions are normally distribution. Alternative models for describing return distributions have been proposed since the 1960s, with the strongest empirical and theoretical support being provided for the family of stable distributions (with the normal distribution being a special case of this distribution). Since the turn of the century, specific forms of the stable distribution have been proposed and tested that better fit the observed behavior of historical return distributions. More specifically, subclasses of the tempered stable distribution have been proposed. In this paper, we propose one such subclass of the tempered stable distribution which we refer to as the “KR distribution”. We empirically test this distribution as well as two other recently proposed subclasses of the tempered stable distribution: the Carr–Geman–Madan–Yor (CGMY) distribution and the modified tempered stable (MTS) distribution. The advantage of the KR distribution over the other two distributions is that it has more flexible tail parameters. For these three subclasses of the tempered stable distribution, which are infinitely divisible and have exponential moments for some neighborhood of zero, we generate the exponential Lévy market models induced from them. We then construct a new GARCH model with the infinitely divisible distributed innovation and three subclasses of that GARCH model that incorporates three observed properties of asset returns: volatility clustering, fat tails, and skewness. We formulate the algorithm to find the risk-neutral return processes for those GARCH models using the “change of measure” for the tempered stable distributions. To compare the performance of those exponential Lévy models and the GARCH models, we report the results of the parameters estimated for the S&P 500 index and investigate the out-of-sample forecasting performance for those GARCH models for the S&P 500 option prices.     

Multiple BGPs in a Growth Model with Habit Persistence: A Comment

Recently in this journal, Chen (2007) analyzes a model of an economy without distortions in which rational forward-looking households care about how their current consumption compares with their own past consumption. Chen claims the existence of two saddle-point stable balanced growth paths. In this comment, I show that the claim is incorrect. There is a unique saddle-point stable balanced growth path and no global indeterminacy.     

Distribution properties of Latin American black market exchange rates

This paper conducts a statistical analysis of the distribution properties of black market exchange rate changes for 12 Latin American currencies. The infinite variance stable law hypothesis is tested using a regression- type technique to estimate the parameters of the stable Paretian distribution. Strong evidence is found supporting this hypothesis. A separate analysis of extreme observations using a robust statistical procedure further supports these findings.     

2011年5月银行间市场运行报告

2011年5月,银行间市场平稳运行,交易量稳步增长。主要特点是：货币市场资金面大幅收紧,短期利率全线大涨;银行间国债指数继续上行,收益率曲线平坦化;人民币外汇即期市场主要汇率趋稳,交投活跃,非美货币中间价波动剧烈;人民币利率互换交易量显著增长,短期化特征依然明显;人民币外汇期权交易放大,外汇衍生品市场发生结构性变化。     

2013年中国货币市场运行报告

2013年,我国继续实施稳健的货币政策,坚持总量稳定、结构优化的要求,适时适度预调微调,保持银行体系流动性平稳,推动经济结构调整。在此背景下,货币市场交易规模稳步扩大,利率水平震荡上行,波动幅度和频率明显加大,非银行金融机构交易日趋活跃,货币市场的流动性管理功能进一步体现。     

Credit Risk Estimation for Small Businesses Based on a Statistical Method

Many financial statements are currently stored in databases, and statistical research of them can yield valuable results. We have developed a bankruptcy prediction model that determines fair interest rates for loans. Furthermore, we estimate the present discount values of loans with fair interest rates that depend on the quality of companies. If economic conditions are stable, it is possible to get stable returns with diversification of investment.     

2013年广西壮族自治区金融稳定报告

2013年,面对复杂严峻的国内外经济形势,广西以提高经济增长质量为中心,统筹稳增长、调结构、促改革、惠民生,经济呈现总体平稳的发展态势,金融业保持健康发展,金融改革持续推进,金融市场功能日益完善,金融基础设施建设稳步推进,金融生态环境持续优化。2013年广西金融稳定综合评价值与上年基本持平,属于金融稳定状况较好地区,表明在复杂严峻的经济形势下,广西金融稳定总体状况仍然保持良好,金融体系稳健运行。