Network analysis approach to map tourism mobility

The spatial distribution of tourists is uneven and it can include some areas at regional and/or sub-regional level. The social–economic and environmental impacts of tourism, are concentrated in different areas. Some recent contributions show the usefulness and the effectiveness of network analysis (NA) approach in revising the organization of tourist facilities and services. This paper proposes to apply methods borrowed from NA to map the spatial distribution of tourism mobility in Sicily. So, we analyze the network features of tourism in a multi-destinations net. By means of traditional measures of NA, we propose to measure the links among destinations. The study aims to connect destinations, represented as nodes, to define a territorial network of tourism demand. In the specific instance, the degree centrality, closeness centrality, betweenness centrality are used to localize central areas and the main routes. We test survey data collected on a sample of tourists leaving from airports and ports of the main Sicilian cities, who visited two destinations at least. Then, we study tourism mobility on those areas selected by tourists. Finally, employing measures derived from NA, the work attempts to set out territorial networks. This approach could be useful to plane tourism development policies.     

Assessing technology portfolios for contract competition: An analytic hierarchy process approach

Firms engaged in high-technology government and commercial contracts allocate discretionary funds to R&D projects to enhance the quality of prototype design. We propose a method for targeting enhancements which appeal to clients while also providing technological advantage vis-a-vis other firms competing for the same contracts. R&D projects can be scored on their contribution to contract selection criteria and compared in the context of a technology portfolio, a matrix that reveals the relative merits of the engineering proposals and potential technology niches.

Knowledge on clients, competitors and priorities regarding selection criteria is often judgmental and fragmented within the firm. Meaningful translation of various experts' comparisons into a hierarchical, internally consistent scoring scheme is achieved with Saaty's analytic hierarchy process. Carefully specified technical benchmarks, used to scale quality and cost data, are also instrumental for soliciting judgmental knowledge. Implementation of the technology portfolio assessment is illustrated with a practical example drawn from defense contracting.     

How to improve a technology evaluation model: A data-driven approach

Academic research suggests a number of technology evaluation models. To ensure effective use, models need to be improved in accordance with changing internal and external environments. However, a majority of previous studies focus on model development, while a few emphasize their implementation or improvement. To fill this research gap, this study suggests a systematic approach to examining the validity of technology evaluation models and improving them. We consider three propositions as criteria for improvement: 1) the coherence of the evaluation results with the evaluation purpose, 2) the appropriateness of the evaluation methods, and 3) the concreteness of the evaluation model. Rather than using expert opinions, this study takes a data-driven approach, wherein we analyze actual evaluation results and determine whether the model produces the intended results. A case study of 291 technology evaluation results, all made by the South Korean government in support of technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, is conducted to verify the suggested approach's applicability. This is one of the few studies to address issues regarding improvements to a technology evaluation model. Its approach can help to develop and continuously improve a valid technology evaluation model, thus leading to more effective practice.     

A new approach to managerial selection

There are two keys to picking the right man for a job: knowing the results the man has achieved on past jobs (not only the names of those jobs) and knowing the objectives of the job to be filled. If he has in the past achieved the results the present job is aiming for—he's the right man.     

A new approach to public investment

Public investment decisions are usually based on multiple objective criteria. In this paper, Optimal Investment Decision Problem is formulated as a Multicriterion Optimal Control Problem. Apart from accounting for the multiple objectives, the dynamics of the economic system can also be incorporated in this formulation. Some techniques of solving these problems are discussed and trade-off schemes for the various objectives are suggested through the associated shadow prices.     

共同应对我国物流业面临的新机遇和挑战

今年以来,我国面临着极其复杂的国内外形势。一是接连遭受低温雨雪冰冻灾害和汶川特大地震的严重破坏;二是遭遇百年不遇的全球性的金融危机的突然冲击;三是承受了国际初级产品价格剧烈波动的严重影响。这些难以预料的突发因素与经济运行中原有的体制性、结构性的矛盾交织在一起,使我国经济发展面临前所未有的困难,我国经济发展速度明     

Reverse mortgages through artificial intelligence: new opportunities for the actuaries

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In its basic structure, the reverse mortgage (RM) is a contract where a home owner borrows a part or the totality of the future liquidation value of his home at...     

An approach to fuzzy hypothesis testing

In this paper an approach is presented how to test fuzzily formulated hypotheses with crisp data. The quantitiesα andβ, the probabilities of the errors of type I and of type II, are suitably generalized and the concept of a best test is introduced. Within the framework of a one-parameter exponential distribution family the search for a best test is considerably reduced. Furthermore, it is shown under very weak conditions thatα andβ can simultaneously be diminished by increasing the sample size even in the case of testingH ₀ against the omnibus alternativeH ₁: notH ₀, a result completely different from the case of crisp setsH ₀ andH ₁: notH ₀.     

Photoshop照片处理初探

人们在日常生活中使用相机拍摄而得到的照片,其效果并不一定特别理想,我们需要对其进行修复,以达到最佳效果。文章针对照片的常见缺陷讲述使用Photoshop修复照片的实用技术。     

A new approach to peak load pricing

This paper explores an alternative method of ‘solving’ the problem of recurring time variable demands in a public utility context. It views the utility's load curve as a series of horizontal layers or ‘slices’ of varying lengths, rather than as a series of vertical slices as in the traditional approach. Several cases are examined, and traditional time-of-day pricing is shown to be inefficient or inapplicable in some of them, while ‘demand-layer’ pricing, based on horizontal slicing, is efficient. In still other cases, neither method of pricing is efficient.     

The trade union response to new technology

While there is ambivalence towards the new technology within the trade union movement, the general belief is that - provided its introduction is controlled by collective bargaining and sympathetic government action - it will lead to increased leisure and higher living standards. The author suggests that the ‘silicon dream’ is more likely to become a nightmare.     

Designing awareness campaigns to counter human trafficking: An analytic approach

Human trafficking – the trade of persons for the gain of others – is a pervasive societal issue. Ongoing trafficking recruitment calls for targeted prevention strategies for individuals and communities at risk. Awareness campaigns, arguably the most common form of trafficking prevention, are intended to alert individuals to the tactics used by traffickers and provide them with practical strategies to avoid deception and exploitation. However there is a shortage of technical solutions regarding the analysis, impact assessment, and evaluation of alternatives related to implementing awareness campaigns. We present a resource allocation model that can be used to determine the allocation of funds that maximizes increases in trafficking awareness among at-risk populations. We apply this model to determine the allocation of a limited budget among different types of prevention programs in at-risk populations in Nepal. For each awareness campaign, we estimate a production function that relates the amount invested to the associated change in awareness. When allocating limited resources, decision makers must balance competing interests, and we illustrate the impact of three allocation policies on trafficking awareness. The model presented in this article is a first attempt to help decision makers evaluate how to allocate funds in the context of trafficking awareness.     

A new approach to estimating earnings forecasting models: Robust regression MM-estimation

This study focuses on the impact of model estimation methods on earnings forecast accuracy. Compared with an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression combined with winsorization, robust regression MM-estimation improves the earnings forecast accuracy of all the models examined, especially for those with more variables. My findings indicate that the impact of outliers on the OLS regression increases with the number of variables in the models, alerting researchers who use OLS regressions for forecasting. My findings explain the puzzling negative relationship between earnings forecast accuracy and the number of model variables in prior research. Moreover, I demonstrate the valuation implications of earnings forecasted using robust regression MM-estimation. This study contributes to earnings forecasting, valuation, and influential observation treatment in forecasting.     

The success of job applications: a new approach to program evaluation

This paper suggests a novel approach to program evaluation that allows identification of the causal effect of a training program on the likelihood of being invited to a job interview under weak assumptions, i.e., by measuring the program-effects by pre- and post-treatment data that are very close in time for the same individual.