Learning Dynamics with Private and Public Signals

This paper studies the dynamics of learning in a model of technology adoption. Firms learn about an unknown technology by observing both private and public signals. Because of the externality associated with the public signal, the social planner has firms experiment more in the initial period of the model, relative to the market equilibrium. In certain cases, this more rapid generation of information results in the planner experimenting less in later periods of the model. In contrast, typical models with public signals result in the planner inducing more experimentation in all periods of the model relative to the market equilibrium. I would like to thank Matt Mitchell and Tom Holmes for their advice and encouragement. I would also like to thank Thor Koeppl, Cyril Monnet, John Stevens, and Jason Cummins, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. This paper is the second chapter of my dissertation. The views expressed herein are my own and not necessarily those of the Bureau of Economic Analysis or the US Department of Commerce.     

Strategy-Specific Barriers to Learning and Nonmonotonic Selection Dynamics

The replicator dynamics are generalized to allow for strategy-specific barriers to learning. The resulting dynamics satisfy neither payoff monotonicity nor payoff positivity, but do satisfy weak payoff positivity. It is shown that initial states from which trajectories converge to a rest point under the replicator dynamics may yield trajectories which approach a stable limit cycle under the generalized replicator dynamics. Furthermore, strategies which are strictly dominated by other pure strategies may survive indefinitely along such nonconvergent paths.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: C73.     

浅议中国民营企业家接班人问题

"富不过三代",曾是中国企业家的宿命.中国人有个传统的认识:每20年左右算是一代人.上世纪80年代中期,被称为中国民营企业创业的黄金时期,当今活跃在国内各个产业第一阵营中的企业,有相当大的一部分都是在那个时代开始艰难创业,逐步积累和成长,算来已经整整经历一代人了.     

基于时间维度的组织学习理论——组织从过去经历中学习的模型

从经历中学习是组织学习的重要方面。从科学、严谨的研究范式出发,结合东方传统的阴阳哲学思想,基于时间维度提出了包含学习主体、经历样本、成功失败经历集、学习主体特征、知和行等要素的组织从过去经历中学习的模型,并对相关问题进行了探究。具体包括:学习主体从经历中学习的认知特性;不同类型经历对应的不同学习方法,成功经历和失败经历对学习效果的差异性影响,经历集影响知和行的7种自动的和有意的学习方式;知与行相互转化及其触发机制;客观世界从时间和空间两个维度客观展开的观点等。该系统模型为未来研究提供了理论框架和实证检验方向。     

The Losses from Trade Restrictions: Policy Dynamics with Firm Selection and Endogenous Markup

In this paper, I explore the aggregate effects of trade restrictions in a two‐country, dynamic, general equilibrium (DGE) model with firm selection and variable adjustment of markup. As a response to the trade collapse in the global crisis of 2008 and 2009, temporary trade restrictions have emerged in several countries. With analyzing the dynamics of a negative macroeconomic shock in the home economy first, and the subsequent introduction of trade restrictions in the foreign economy second, I show that both economies are in a worse position than they were during the economic downturn. The follow‐ups to the recession and trade restrictions are investigated through three mechanisms: (1) variable markup as a new avenue of increasing competitive pressure for producers (e.g. more competitive firms lower their markups); (2) average individual firms' specific productivity cut‐off, which induces their optimum export choice (e.g. an increase in the export productivity cut‐off means exporting becomes more difficult than before.); and (3) the movement of international relative prices (e.g. the real exchange rate and terms of trade).     

借鉴国外经验，大力推进循环经济

循环经济是可持续发展战略实施的根本保障和重要组成部分，它倡导的是人与自然和谐发展的经济模式。论文从循环经济的内涵及理论基础入手，借鉴国外循环经济发展的成功经验．指出我国发展循环经济的必要性．并进一步提出推进符合我国国情的循环经济发展的基本措施。     

价格的全面上涨及其带来的社会问题

在价格上涨较快的压力下,政府不能直接干预价格,不应该将控制价格作为自己的社会经济目标.政府所能做的只是通过影响决定供求关系的各种因素来调节供求关系,从而使价格在供求关系的变动下朝着有利于经济增长和社会发展的方向发展,通过应有的政府机制解决价格变动所带来的社会问题,也就是说,政府应注重完成价格上涨所引发的政府应该承担的社会职能.     

民营企业外源性融资问题分析

资金是企业的血液,外源性融资困难一直是阻碍民营企业发展的重要原因。本文通过论述民营企业外源性融资的现状,分析了导致民营企业外源性融资困难的经济性因素和深层制度性因素,并进一步提出了解决目前民营企业融资难题的相应对策。     

私营企业财务管理问题研究

企业的经济活动是以资金活动贯穿始终的,企业的经济效益主要是通过投入、产出、消费和所得等四个方面比较全面反映出来的,这些内容都需要通过财务管理来体现。一个企业财务管理得好,企业就能健康发展,否则就经营萎缩与倒闭。改革开放以来,我国私营经济得到了长足的发展,私营企业为创造税收、繁荣经济、增加就业等方面作出了一定贡献。但由于宏观经济环境和企业自身的问题,私营企业的财务管理工作存在很多问题,严重影响了企业的经济效益。在新时期,私营企业要强化财务管理,提高经济效益。     

对我国民营企业融资问题的思考

民营企业是我国国民经济的重要力量,作为非公有制经济形式对我国经济发展做出了突出贡献,由于长期受到融资困难的制约,使其发展受阻,融资难已成为民营企业发展的“瓶颈”问题。作者通过对民营企业融资现状及原因的分析,就如何拓展民营企业融资渠道提出了有针对性的建议。     

民营企业融资问题探讨--温州民营企业融资的实证分析

民营经济是推动我国经济持续、稳定增长的重要力量,其对国民经济的贡献越来越大。融资问题对民营企业的发展有很大影响,研究解决民营企业融资问题之对策,有极其重要的现实意义。本文旨在研究、分析温州民营企业融资现状的基础上,探讨改善民营企业融资状况的对策,加快经济发展。     

工业化养殖的环境和社会问题

工业化养殖是近半个世纪以来人类应对不断增长的人口压力和提高农业劳动生产率所选择的一种路径。联合国的相关报告认为,恰恰是这些工业化养殖模式带来了更多的粮食安全风险,工厂化养殖不仅不能解决问题,反而会加剧粮荒和生态恶化,引发动物衍生疾病蔓延。中国应对工业化养殖带来的环境和社会问题进行严格调控,加快制定相关的法律法规、技术和管理规范,改造或新建养殖设施和污染处理设施。     

世代效应:民营企业家群体的阶层地位变迁研究

阶层地位感知是影响民营企业家经营决策的重要因素,然而当前仍缺乏对其阶层地位感知形成机制的解释。从市场化转型历史背景出发,本文认为民营企业家阶层地位感知受其创业时特定历史情境的影响,并会通过世代效应长期共享、强化这一认知模式。基于五次中国私营企业抽样调查数据,具体考察1992年前后两个不同时期创业的民营企业家群体地位感知差异来检验世代效应。结果表明:与市场经济体制确立之前(1992年前)创业的民营企业家群体相比,市场经济体制确立之后(1992年后)创业的民营企业家群体地位感知相对较高。同时,进一步异质性检验发现,对于无体制内经历和经济力量较强的民营企业家群体,市场化转型对其阶层地位感知的提升作用更强。通过聚焦于中国市场化转型的历史变迁进程,本文为深化民营企业家阶层地位感知的认识提供了宏观历史视角解释。     

演化经济学中的社会合作的起源问题

人类是我们能够观察到的,在没有血缘关系的个体之间,进行广泛而密切的合作的唯一物种,合作在某种意义上,成就了这一生物物种于自然界中的生存和发展.从演化经济学的视角,将制度演化理解为在一般生物演化中获得生物特征的同时获得社会特征的演化过程,进而寻求合作的社会起源.     

The Social Shaping of the Participation of Employees in Environmental Work within Enterprises - Experiences from a Danish Context

The paper deals with the shaping of the participation of employees in environmental work within enterprises. The paper is based on two case studies on Danish enterprises, which, as part of the development of their environmental work, emphasized employee involvement. The cases show that it is difficult to maintain the participation of employees in environmental work, even in enterprises with an intention to do so. The cases contribute to the identification of those situations during the shaping of environmental work in an enterprise where choices concerning employee participation are made: (1) The need of management to involve employees in the environmental work; (2) The competence building among employees and local supervisors; and (3) The stabilization of the environmental work into routines and structures. The theoretical approach draws on organizational theory emphasizing the connection between environmental strategies, measures and competence needs, and the shaping of the participation of employees as social processes formed by the existing culture and the pressure generated by the preventive environmental work.     

The Social Shaping of the Participation of Employees in Environmental Work within Enterprises - Experiences from a Danish Context

The paper deals with the shaping of the participation of employees in environmental work within enterprises. The paper is based on two case studies on Danish enterprises, which, as part of the development of their environmental work, emphasized employee involvement. The cases show that it is difficult to maintain the participation of employees in environmental work, even in enterprises with an intention to do so. The cases contribute to the identification of those situations during the shaping of environmental work in an enterprise where choices concerning employee participation are made: (1) The need of management to involve employees in the environmental work; (2) The competence building among employees and local supervisors; and (3) The stabilization of the environmental work into routines and structures. The theoretical approach draws on organizational theory emphasizing the connection between environmental strategies, measures and competence needs, and the shaping of the participation of employees as social processes formed by the existing culture and the pressure generated by the preventive environmental work.     

中国民营资本产权问题分析

中国民营资本的产权缺陷突出表现为企业受到来自政治、行政和文化、宗法的干扰和约束,产权主体具有超经济性,并且民营资本的终极所有权未能在自然人之间明确界区。民营资本的产权缺陷使社会不可能获得竞争的效率,企业也不可能真正适应市场竞争。市场经济要求在不同的交易主体间必须有明确的产权界区,市场经济还要求产权必须是单纯的经济性质的权利。实现产权制度的公平与效率原则,依赖最节省交易费用的制度安排。完善法治,约束政府行为,放松对微观经济的超强管制,是中国市场经济改革的基本选择。     

Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results

Drawing upon recent contributions in the statistical literature, we present new results on the convergence of recursive, stochastic algorithms which can be applied to economic models with learning and which generalize previous results. The formal results provide probability bounds for convergence which can be used to describe the local stability under learning of rational expectations equilibria in stochastic models. Economic examples include local stability in a multivariate linear model with multiple equilibria and global convergence in a model with a unique equilibrium.