财政赤字货币化与美国金融危机的政治经济学分析

受由新冠疫情引发的经济衰退影响,美国启动了以增发国债和超级量化宽松为基础的数轮纾困政策,以央行购买国债推动经济复苏的财政赤字货币化政策自2008年后再一次引起了全球的注意.本文以美国为刺激经济复苏施行的财政政策和货币政策为出发点,从经济基础、理论基础、制度演变、财政赤字和国债规模变化等角度分析了财政赤字货币化的形成原因...     

Japanese fiscal reform: fiscal reconstruction and fiscal policy

This paper evaluates the recent movement of Japanese fiscal reform. We first summarize fiscal policy in 1990s. Then, we investigate several relevant topics of fiscal policy such as the macroeconomic impact of government debt and the sustainability problem. We then consider dynamic properties of fiscal reconstruction process by analyzing the dynamic game among various interest groups. This paper points out that the long-run structural reform is more important than the short-run Keynesian policy in Japan.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in the Euro Area with Different Assumptions on the Phillips Curve

In this paper we apply a static version of a New Keynesian macromodel to a monetary union (see Bofinger et al., J Econ Educ, 37:98–117 (2006), Walsh, J Econ Educ, 33:333–346 (2002)). We show in particular that a harmonious functioning of a monetary union critically depends on the correlation of shocks that hit the currency area. Additionally a high degree of integration in product markets is advantageous for the ECB as it prevents national interest rates from driving a wedge between macroeconomic outcomes across member states. In particular small countries are in need for fiscal policy as an independent stabilization agent with room to breath.

Fiscal policy in central and Eastern Europe: what happened in the run-up to EU accession?

This paper analyses the evolution of fiscal policy in central and eastern European countries during the EU accession process, testing for country and time specific effects. This is done by constructing Taylor-type policy rules and by calculating three measures of fiscal stance. A key finding is that the differences across countries are more significant than those across time. Baltic countries tended to have had tighter fiscal policy which responded to the output gap, larger central European countries had more lax (and increasingly lax) fiscal policies which were unresponsive to the output gap. These differences correlate closely with cross-country differences in exchange rate regimes and no link is found to either spending composition or political variables. Taken together the results suggest that the exchange rate regime is by far the most significant determinant of fiscal performance. These results suggest that the “soft power” of the prospect of EU entry did not act as a spur to greater fiscal discipline and that higher budget deficits in recent years cannot be blamed on costs of accession.

贸易失衡的根源:汇率还是经济结构——基于美国案例的实证分析

本文基于协整理论、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数等时间序列处理技术对美国经济结构、财政赤字、汇率与其贸易收支之间的动态关系进行了实证检验。检验结果表明:长期内,实体经济占比的增加会改善贸易收支,虚拟经济占比、财政赤字增加会恶化贸易收支,而汇率水平对于贸易收支的影响不显著;短期内,实体经济占比、虚拟经济占比对贸易收支的影响与长期相一致,财政赤字则相反,而汇率水平的上升在短期内导致贸易盈余的增加,但弹性值有变小的趋势。其政策的含义在于:影响美国贸易收支的主要因素来自其财政赤字及其国内经济结构,即实体经济与虚拟经济创造GDP的比例关系,而非汇率因素。因此,只有通过协调其国内实体经济与虚拟经济的发展,减少财政赤字,收缩储蓄-投资缺口才可以有效地调节贸易失衡问题,而不能一味地强调汇率因素。     

Fiscal Leadership and Coordination in the EMU

We analyze the role of fiscal-monetary policy interactions and fiscal coordination in EMU under the assumption of strategic wage setting in unionized labour markets. We find that production subsidies and real wage distortions are strategic complements. The literature on macroeconomic stabilisation policies and policy games usually neglects this point and reaches overoptimistic conclusions about the desirable effects of accommodating fiscal policies. Central bank preferences also affect the desirability of fiscal coordination in a monetary union. In fact, contrary to Beetsma and Bovenberg (1998), we find that fiscal coordination improves outcomes in the case of a conservative central banker, whereas it leads to worse outcomes with a populist one.

Fiscal policy in monetary unions: Implications for Europe

This paper analyzes how the feasible mix of government expenditure and financing arrangements may change with the establishment of a monetary union such as that planned by members of the European Community. We find that a monetary union reduces the feasible divergence across countries in their present discounted levels of fiscal spending. Wide differences across countries in their present and future time patterns of spending are still possible, however. Examination of the empirical evidence suggests that the movement toward greater exchange rate fixity associated with the EMS and participation in quasi monetary unions havenot been accompanied by significant fiscal convergence. The experience of member states of several existing monetary unions, however, suggests that a more effective constraint to budgetary discipline arises within full-fledged unions in operation over long periods, even in the absence of binding central rules on government deficit and debt positions.     

Local fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan

This study examines how the effectiveness of fiscal policy depends on population aging. To this end, this study estimates the local fiscal multipliers in Japan. Results suggest that the estimated local fiscal multiplier on output is larger in non-aged areas than aged areas, and that the effects on the number of workers are not statistically significant in either area type. Additionally, the multipliers on private investment are only higher than one in non-aged prefectures. Results also indicate that the multiplier generated by an increase in government investment is larger than that in government consumption. These results indicate fewer slack resources in aged areas that can be mobilized in response to increased government spending.     

Can good events lead to bad outcomes? Endogenous banking crises and fiscal policy responses

In this paper, we study the impact of changes in the urban labor force and foreign direct investment on the banking sector, using a dynamic general equilibrium model with a financial sector. Numerical simulations are performed using stylized Chinese data, and bank failures are generated through increases in the growth rate of the labor force, a revaluation of the exchange rate, or an increase in debt issue to finance the government deficit, as compared to a benchmark scenario in which banks remain solvent. Thus bank failures can result from what might seem to be either beneficial economic trends or correct monetary and fiscal policies. We introduce fiscal policies that modify relative factor prices by lowering the capital tax rate and increasing the tax rate on labor. Such policies can prevent banking failures by raising the return to capital. It is shown that such fiscal policies are, in the short run, welfare reducing.     

THE LEGACY AND CHALLENGE OF FISCAL POLICY IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA1

This paper traces salient aspects of the evolution of fiscal policy in sub‐Saharan Africa since 1960 and highlights the need for further reforms to consolidate the gains of the recent past. The fiscal position of the sub‐Saharan African region as a whole has improved markedly during the past ten years, but most countries still face formidable fiscal challenges. To consolidate the progress made during the past decade and to tackle the remaining problems, sub‐Saharan African policymakers should remain firmly committed to sound fiscal policies.     

Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis

We examine the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy in mitigating the impact of COVID-19 in India using the NK-DSGE framework. In terms of policy effectiveness, our findings imply that expansionary monetary policy is effective in reviving economic growth both from the demand side and supply side. In contrast, expansionary fiscal policy is effective only from the supply side. Our findings recommend the implementation of optimal policy mix in a coordinated and staggered framework for effective mitigation of ill-effects of the COVID-19, such as reviving employment and capacity utilization to its pre-pandemic level with minimal inflationary effects.     

Trade deficits and trade conflict: The United States and Japan

The US trade relationship with Japan was characterised by periods of intense conflict over 1969−95. The paper identifies five such periods, beginning with two bitter conflicts in 1971 and ending with an equally difficult conflict over autos in 1994−95. It presents econometric evidence suggesting rising Japanese penetration of the American market and growth in the bilateral merchandise trade deficit with Japan were important causes of these crises. Over 1996–2016, US-Japan relations were handled in a much less confrontational manner, as import penetration declined. The difficulties Japan’s economy faced; heightened security concerns in Northeast Asia; a broader US shift away from unilateral measures; greater acceptance of the trade deficit; and perceptions that Japan was moving to open its economy were also important in lessening tensions in the bilateral relationship. Strong concerns with the US trade deficit re-emerged under the Trump Administration, but the two economies were, during this period, able to address trade differences without a major confrontation.     

What are the Trade Spill-Overs from Fiscal Shocks in Europe? An Empirical Analysis***

We use a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) analysis to explore the (trade spill-over) effects of fiscal policy shocks in Europe. To enhance comparability with the existing literature, we first analyse the effects of these shocks at the national level. Here, we employ identification based on Choleski decomposition and a structural VAR, both of which lead to the same results. Then, we turn to study the cross-border spill-overs of fiscal shocks via the trade channel. Fiscal expansions in Germany, France and Italy lead to significant increases in imports from a number of European countries. In order to mimic the case of monetary union, we also shut off the effects via the short-term interest rate and the nominal exchange rate and find a slight strengthening on average of the cross-country spill-overs from a fiscal expansion. These results suggest that it may be worthwhile to further investigate the possibility of enhanced fiscal coordination.*** This research is part of the RTN project ‘Macroeconomic Policy Design for Monetary Unions’, funded by the European Commission (contract number HPRN-CT-2002-00237). We thank two anonymous referees, a referee for the ECB Working Paper series, Peter Claeys, David-Jan Jansen, Franc Klaassen, Roberto Perotti and audiences at the Dutch Central Bank and the CEPR/CREI Conference ‘Designing a Macroeconomic Policy Framework for Europe’ (Barcelona, 2004) for many helpful comments. A large part of this paper was written while Beetsma was visiting the Directorate-General for Research of the ECB. He thanks the ECB for the stimulating research environment. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not commit any of.cial institution. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilizations: What are the Gains from Cooperation?

In this paper we extend the open-economy stochastic framework of Obstfeld and Rogoff (Q J Econ. 117:503–36, 2002) to include distortionary taxation, when prices are flexible but wages are sticky. We use the model to analyze the optimal design of tax rules that respond to productivity shocks, under non-cooperation and cooperation between the fiscal authorities, and evaluate the gains from coordination. We show that, although monetary policy would be preferred to fiscal policy as a stabilization tool both under competition (Nash) and under cooperation, there is a role for procyclical fiscal stabilization in a monetary union where the monetary authority cannot respond to asymmetric shocks. Moreover, we show that in the Nash game there will be an incentive for the fiscal authorities to try to manipulate the terms-of-trade in their favor, and we estimate the potential gains from fiscal policy coordination. The size of the gains depends crucially on the value of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply. For lower values of the Frisch elasticity (more in line with microeconometric estimates) the gains are relatively small, but for more elastic labor supplies (more in agreement with the business cycle literature) the gains can be very large.

减税政策对美国经济内外失衡的影响

减税政策是布什政府的主要财政政策。在减税政策下,美国经济内部严重失衡,财政赤字膨胀,储蓄-投资缺口扩张。由于经济内部失衡加剧导致经济外部平衡恶化,美国对外净债务增加,贸易逆差扩大。因此,美国若要治理经济的外部失衡特别是贸易逆差问题,必须首先治理经济的内部失衡尤其是财政赤字问题,而要治理财政赤字又必须首先放弃减税政策。美国人不能总是盯住汇率尤其是人民币汇率不放,这无助于解决美国经济的内部和外部失衡问题。     

地方政府赤字财政下的物价控制与货币政策选择

货币经济学的一个基本观点就是,紧缩的货币政策能够降低通货膨胀,而扩张性的货币政策能够导致通货膨胀。费德斯坦指出,没有充分考虑财政政策的影响,这是货币经济学的严重缺陷。因此,文章结合我国当前的财政政策,探讨了在地方政府赤字财政下,中央银行如何控制和治理通货膨胀。文章认为,在地方政府赤字财政下,如果政府通过银行融资具有优先权的话,紧缩的货币政策不仅不能够控制通货膨胀,反而加速了通货膨胀。     

地方政府财政政策与企业股权融资:理论与实证

论文通过建立连续时间动态讨价还价模型对地方政府与企业所有者之间的博弈关系进行了理论研究．并对双方策略选择关系进行了实证检验。理论研究的结果表明,如果博弈双方的时间偏好相同,剩余控制权（或者称之为相对讨价还价优势）的配置与博弈双方的福利水平无关：而时间偏好不相同时,剩余控制权的配置将影响双方的福利水平,这个研究结论与是否存在交易成本不必相关。通过实证研究,论文的研究结果表明：（1）地方政府追求预算外盈余的行为会导致其增加财政支出最终导致财政赤字持续增加,但这些财政赤字并没有为企业股权融资提供有效的支持;（2）地方政府的财政更愿意与企业在预算外的领域合作,而企业则更愿意与地方政府在预算内合作：（3）非国有企业较国有企业更愿意和地方政府在预算外合作,而地方政府也更愿意和非国有企业在预算外的领域合作。这些实证结果说明地方政府在时间偏好不一致的情况下拥有剩余控制权。     

EMU Stability: Direct and Indirect Risk Sharing

Our paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of different risk-sharing mechanisms in providing stability to a monetary union. We select two stylized tools with extreme and opposite features. The first is an expansionary but conventional monetary policy that is used to help EMU’s most fragile member states manage their public debts; the second is a centralized fiscal policy that allows for the transfer of a portion of these public debts from EMU’s most fragile member states to those considered EMU’s “core”. By a stylized periphery-core model of a monetary union, we compare the strengths and weaknesses of these two tools in order to reach some welfare implications in terms of union stability.     

A New EU Member Country on the Road to the Euro Area: Monetary and Fiscal Policies for Slovenia

Slovenia was the first of the ten new EU member states to enter the Euro Area on January 1, 2007. It was an explicit objective of Slovenian policy-makers to introduce the euro as early as possible. Slovenia was participating in the exchange rate mechanism ERM-II since June 2004. This paper analyses whether the choice of participating in the ERM-II soon after EU accession was the best strategy in terms of the macroeconomic performance. It is shown that a better overall economic performance could have been achieved under a crawling peg regime allowing a depreciation of the Slovenian tolar (SIT) before introducing the euro in 2007. The worst policy results are obtained when the exchange rate is totally fixed at an early stage of EMU integration. The labor market performance can be significantly improved by cutting income taxes and social security contribution rates.      

Fiscal policy and direct crowding-out in a small open economy

This paper analyses the welfare effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy, where private and government consumption are substitutes in terms of private utility. The main findings are as follows: fiscal policy raises output, bringing it closer to its efficient level, but is not welfare-improving even though government spending directly affects private utility. The main reason for this is that the introduction of useful government spending implies a larger crowding-out effect on private consumption, when compared with the ‘pure waste’ case. Utility decreases since one unit of government consumption yields less utility than one unit of private consumption. In any case, the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption is a key parameter in governing the welfare effects of fiscal policy.