Employment and education discrimination against disabled people in Cape Verde

This article assesses the employment and school enrolment gaps between disabled and nondisabled persons using the last Cape Verdean census. The unexplained part of these gaps accounts for most of them, whatever the age group considered. Furthermore, differences in age structures between disabled and nondisabled persons have almost no effect on these gaps. Taking into account potential misclassification errors in the disability variable seems to change only marginally these results. These findings thus suggest that there is scope for programs to better target and promote employment and education of the disabled in Cape Verde.     

Chinese foreign direct investment in Australia: policy issues for the resource sector 1

The past 18 months have seen Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Australian resource sector become an issue of policy interest. There are two big questions that the prospects of a significant rise in FDI from China into the Australian resources sector have raised. Is the surge of FDI into Australian mining and energy consistent with achieving the traditional gains from foreign investment? And are there any particular problems associated with investment from foreign state-owned enterprises or state-managed sovereign wealth funds? These are among the questions addressed in this paper. The paper argues that there are no issues that cannot be dealt with under the umbrella of the established test of ‘national interest’ in managing the growth of Chinese FDI into the Australian minerals sector. It argues that a confusion has been introduced into policy over the questions of state ownership and supplier–buyer relations in respect of Chinese investments and that clarifying these issues is likely to be important to Australia's capturing the full benefits from the growth of Chinese resources demand and longer term economic and strategic interests in China.     

Farming system modelling for agri-environmental policy design: The case of a spatially non-aggregated allocation of conservation measures

This paper addresses the issue of designing policies for habitat conservation on agricultural land. The case under study requires a non-aggregated spatial distribution of the fields to be enrolled in an agri-environmental programme. A spatially explicit mathematical programming farm-based model, which accounts for three spatial levels (field, farm and landscape), is coupled with a relevant spatial pattern index (the Ripley L-function) to analyse the design and implementation of an agri-environmental programme aimed to preserve the Tetrax tetrax in the Plaine de Niort, France. The model is run using a stylised map with heterogeneous soil types and both crop growing and mixed dairy farms. Results show that valuable insights into agri-environmental programme design are gained through a detailed representation of farming system management. The suitable, non-aggregated spatial pattern for T. tetrax conservation is more costly than less-suitable, more aggregated patterns, because it tends to require equal participation of all farms. The policy simulations reveal that the various spatial patterns can be obtained through relatively simple uniform contract structures. An effective contract structure entails a set of two degressive payments which encourages all farms to enrol at least a small share of their land in the program.     

A systems approach to policy analysis and development planning: Construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans

In this study, we propose a new model for systems analysis ‘of’ policy and systems analysis ‘for’ policy with the example of construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans.Our proposed model—integrated development management model (IDMM)—is conceptually based on the principles of systems thinking and integrated management approach.We present and discuss the results of our work in which we extracted all construction-related policies and strategies from eight 5-year development plans and analyzed them using the IDMM. In the light of the analyses, we give several answers to the question: “Why did the development plans fail to meet their targets in Turkey?” We propose that any development plan has to have claritas-unitas-integritas-consonantia between the management levels (normative, strategic, and operational) and components (goals, structures, and behavior) of IDMM.The paper is the first work that brings the concepts of development planning and foresight together. In a complementary stance, the time of integrating foresight and development planning has come.     

The internalization of externalities in the production of electricity: Willingness to pay for the attributes of a policy for renewable energy

This paper investigates the willingness to pay of a sample of residents of Bath, England, for a hypothetical program that promotes the production of renewable energy. Using choice experiments, we assess the preferences of respondents for a policy for the promotion of renewable energy that: (i) contributes to the internalization of the external costs caused by fossil fuel technologies; (ii) affects the short-term security of energy supply; (iii) has an impact on the employment in the energy sector; and (iv) leads to an increase in the electricity bill. Responses to the choice questions show that our respondents are in favour of a policy for renewable energy and that they attach a high value to a policy that brings private and public benefits in terms of climate change and energy security benefits. Our results therefore suggest that consumers are willing to pay a higher price for electricity in order to internalize the external costs in terms of energy security, climate change and air pollution caused by the production of electricity.     

A policy response to a downside of the integration of economies: An impossibility theorem

Recent research shows that the merger of economies increases aggregate stress. This paper shows that there is no income distribution policy which will ensure that the wellbeing of the individuals belonging to merging economies does not fall below their pre-merger level.     

Cost-benefit analysis of alien vegetation clearing for water yield and tourism in a mountain catchment in the Western Cape of South Africa

Economic analysis is used to assess the costs and benefits of restoration following clearing of invasive alien trees in the floristically rich Fynbos mountainous area near Franschhoek, Western Cape of South Africa. The Groot Drakenstein, Franschhoek and Jonkershoek mountains receives more rainfall than the surrounding areas and is an important source of water for the city of Cape Town. The costs of alien invasive plant removal, gully-erosion repair and reseeding with indigenous plants are considered in a case-study cost-benefit analysis of restoration, in terms of the water and tourism benefits derived. Three different options of restoration (comprehensive, moderate, basic) were analysed under three different economic scenarios (optimistic, realistic, pessimistic) and the costs of which have been weighted up against the income derived from the supply of water and tourism. The results have shown that despite the high costs of restoration, the basic restoration option costs were out-weighed by the water and tourism benefits derived. This was also true of the moderate restoration option, when evaluated under the optimistic scenario and using an 8% discount rate, or a 3% discount rate under any scenario. However, this was not the case in the moderate restoration option when using an 8% discount rate in conjunction with the realistic and pessimistic scenarios. Neither was it the case when using a 12% discount rate, irrespective of the scenario. Under no scenario was the cost of a comprehensive restoration option outweighed by the benefits quantified, irrespective of the discount rate used. It was concluded that further restoration, in addition to the mere clearing of alien invasive plants, would be economically viable under certain assumptions and conditions.     

Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint

The Ecological Footprint (EF) is a powerful tool to advance the science of sustainability. However, the static snapshot of EF accounting is not designed to make projections of future sustainability consequences, which fails to elicit policy implications from a dynamic, temporally explicit perspective. This work attempts to incorporate system dynamics (SD) into EF to develop a dynamic EF forecasting framework, and provide a platform to support policy making for urban sustainability improvement. SD is firstly adopted to model the dynamics and interactions of EF driving forces, and then incorporated into the EF framework by correlating system drivers to EF-related consumption categories, embodied EF is finally calculated using the compound-based method. Based on different policy feasibility and sustainability targets, four policy scenarios are designed to explore future sustainability prospects and formulate integrated policies which would attain that sustainability scenario. The modeling procedure is applied to a case study area to illustrate how it works, and policy making for urban sustainability can hopefully be supported using this developed framework in the near future.     

Bidding for the unemployed: An application of mechanism design to welfare-to-work programs

This paper applies the theory of mechanism design to welfare-to-work programs. When procuring welfare-to-work projects to employment service providers, governments face the problems of adverse selection (the winning provider is not the most efficient one) and moral hazard (the winning provider shirks in its responsibility to reintegrate unemployed people). We compare the constant-reward second-price auction with the socially optimal mechanism and show that the auction generates social welfare that is close to the optimal mechanism, while requiring less information and weaker commitment.     

Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water management agencies in the American west

Climate change presents a significant planning challenge for water management agencies in the western United States. Changing precipitation and temperature patterns will disrupt their supply and extensive distribution systems over the coming decades, but the precise timing and extent of these impacts remain deeply uncertain, complicating decisions on needed investments in infrastructure and other system improvements. Adaptive strategies represent an obvious solution in principle, but are often difficult to develop and implement in practice. This paper describes work helping the Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA) explicitly develop adaptive policies to respond to climate change and integrating these policies into the organizations' long-range planning processes. The analysis employs Robust Decision Making (RDM), a quantitative decision- analytic approach for supporting decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty. RDM studies use simulation models to assess the performance of agency plans over thousands of plausible futures, use statistical “scenario discovery” algorithms to concisely summarize those futures where the plans fail to perform adequately, and use these resulting scenarios to help decisionmakers understand the vulnerabilities of their plans and assess the options for ameliorating these vulnerabilities. This paper demonstrates the particular value of RDM in helping decisionmakers to design and evaluate adaptive strategies. For IEUA, the RDM analysis suggests the agency's current plan could perform poorly and lead to high shortage and water provisioning costs under conditions of: (1) large declines in precipitation, (2) larger-than-expected impacts of climate change on the availability of imported supplies, and (3) reductions in percolation of precipitation into the region's groundwater basin. Including adaptivity in the current plan eliminates 72% of the high-cost outcomes. Accelerating efforts in expanding the size of one of the agency's groundwater banking programs and implementing its recycling program, while monitoring the region's supply and demand balance and making additional investments in efficiency and storm-water capture if shortages are projected provides one promising robust adaptive strategy — it eliminates more than 80% of the initially-identified high-cost outcomes.     

基于VHDL利用PS/2键盘控制的密码锁设计

介绍了一种基于FPGA芯片的电子密码锁设计方法,阐述了系统各模块的功能,给出了关键的VHDL程序。系统利用了标准PS/2键盘作为输入设备,取代了普通的矩阵式键盘,展示了FPGA在嵌入式系统设计中的优越性。     

Understanding the effects on HR-QoL of treatment for overactive bladder: a detailed analysis of EQ-5D clinical trial data for mirabegron

Abstract

Background:

Analysis of EQ-5D data often focuses on changes in utility, ignoring valuable information from other parts of the instrument. The objective was to explore how the utility index, EQ-5D profile, and EQ-VAS captured change in clinical trials of mirabegron, a new treatment for overactive bladder (OAB).

Data:

Data were pooled from three phase III clinical trials that investigated the efficacy and safety of mirabegron vs placebo. Tolterodine ER 4?mg was included as an active control in one study: (1) placebo, mirabegron 50?mg and 100?mg, and tolterodine 4?mg ER; (2) placebo, mirabegron 50?mg and 100?mg; (3) placebo, and mirabegron 25?mg and 50?mg. Data were collected at baseline, week 4, 8, and 12.

Methods:

Analyses were performed on full analysis and modified intention to treat (ITT) data sets using UK utilities. Analysis controlled for relevant patient characteristics. Analysis of Covariance identified changes from baseline at each time point in utilities and EQ-VAS. Areas Under the Curve were estimated to summarize inter-temporal differences in effect. EQ-5D profile data were analysed using the Paretian Classification of Health Change.

Results:

In modified ITT analyses, mirabegron 50?mg was superior to tolterodine 4?mg in changes from baseline utilities after 12 weeks (p?<?0.05); similarly, AUC results showed mirabegron 50?mg to be superior to tolterodine (p?<?0.05) and placebo (p?<?0.05) with the benefit already apparent at 4 weeks (p?<?0.05). EQ-VAS more consistently indicated superior outcomes: all three mirabegron doses showed statistically significant greater effectiveness compared to tolterodine at 12 weeks. Individual EQ-5D dimensions and the overall profile showed no significant differences between study arms.

Conclusion:

Mirabegron showed quicker and superior improvement in HR-QoL compared to tolterodine 4?mg ER. A limitation of the study is that EQ-5D was a secondary outcome in the pivotal trials, which were not powered to measure differences on EQ-5D.     

Too big to fail — Lessons for today and the future from British industrial policy, 1960–1990

British industrial policy for two sectors (automotive and aerospace manufacture) in the period the 1960–1990 is considered and compared with the challenges facing the United Kingdom following the financial crisis of 2008. The history of the period 1960–1990 is informed by interviews with well-placed policy-makers of the time. These observations complement the historical record to confirm that British industrial policy was then more often a pragmatic response to events than the consequence of political ideology. Four particular phases of policy are observed: consolidation, investment, nationalisation and privatisation. During the decade 2000–2009 several British companies in banking, transport and energy have been subject to similar state interventions. In 2010 these companies are at various stages on the four step journey considered by the paper. The paper provides four lessons from the past for twenty-first century policy makers tasked with taking forward the companies with state investment and ensuring a return to economic prosperity.     

不同类型农户对退耕政策响应差异研究——以准格尔旗为例

主要探讨退耕初期不同类型农户响应退耕还林政策的差异及产生这种差异的影响因素。研究方法:多元线性回归模型。研究结果:(1)根据农户劳动力和耕地数量,可以将农户分为年轻多地型、年轻少地型、年老多地型和年老少地型;(2)四类农户参与退耕还林积极性由大到小分别为:年老多地型农户>年轻少地型农户>年轻多地型农户>年老少地型农户;(3)耕地面积是影响各类农户退耕决策最显著因子,而农户年龄是农户退耕决策影响力最大因子。研究结论:影响各类农户退耕决策的因素存在差异,针对不同类型农户制定差异化辅助政策有助于政策的落实。     

Cost-effectiveness of obinutuzumab plus bendamustine followed by obinutuzumab monotherapy for the treatment of follicular lymphoma patients who relapse after or are refractory to a rituximab-containing regimen in the US

Aims: Obinutuzumab (GA101, G) was approved in February 2016 by the US Food and Drug Administration to treat follicular lymphoma (FL) patients who relapsed after, or are refractory to (R/R), a rituximab-containing regimen (R/R-rituximab). In the GADOLIN trial, R/R-rituximab patients who received G plus bendamustine (B) followed by G-monotherapy (G?+?B) for up to 2 years had significantly improved progression-free survival and overall survival compared to patients receiving B-monotherapy. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of G?+?B vs B-monotherapy for R/R-rituximab FL patients from a US payer perspective.

Materials and methods: Patient outcomes were simulated using a 3-state area under the curve model including progression-free survival, progressive disease, and death. This study used R/R-rituximab data from the National LymphoCare Study to extrapolate the GADOLIN trial’s refractory FL progression-free and overall survival data to a R/R-rituximab FL population. Drug utilization and adverse events were based on trial data, and costs were based on Medicare reimbursements and drug wholesale acquisition costs in 2016. Utility estimates were derived from published literature. Post-progression treatment costs were based on observed post-progression therapies in GADOLIN. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess model uncertainty.

Results: G?+?B resulted in an increase in quality-adjusted life years relative to B-monotherapy of 1.24 (95% CR?=?0.61–1.87); the incremental total cost was $58,100 (95% CR?=?$54,500–$61,500). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $47,000 per QALY gained, and, based on probabilistic simulations, there was a 98% probability that G?+?B was cost-effective at the $100,000 per QALY threshold.

Limitations and conclusions: This US-based analysis suggests that treatment with G?+?B compared to B-monotherapy is likely cost-effective in R/R-rituximab FL patients. Modeling a R/R-rituximab population based on a synthesis of GADOLIN and the National LymphoCare Study data introduces uncertainty in the analysis. However, the findings were robust to sensitivity analyses.     

Questioning the empirical basis of the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2: New evidence from a panel stationarity test robust to multiple breaks and cross-dependence

This paper investigates the time series properties of per capita CO₂ emissions and per capita GDP levels for a sample of 86 countries over the period 1960-2000. For that purpose, we employ a state-of-the-art panel stationarity test which incorporates multiple shifts in level and slope, thereby controlling for cross-sectional dependence through bootstrap methods. Our analysis renders clear-cut evidence that per capita GDP levels are nonstationary for the world as a whole while per capita CO₂ is found to be regime-wise trend stationary. The analysis of country-groups shows that for Africa and Asia, per capita CO₂ is best described as nonstationary, while per capita GDP appears stationary around a broken trend. In addition, we find evidence of regime-wise trend stationarity in both variables for the country-groups consisting of America, Europe and Oceania. The results of our analysis carry important implications for the statistical modelling of the Environmental Kuznets curve for CO₂, since the differing order of integration in both variables for the world as a whole and for Africa and Asia calls into question the validity of panel cointegration techniques which assume that both variables are nonstationary and cointegrated with one another. Cointegration techniques would not be appropriate either for the case of America, Europe and Oceania which are characterised by per capita GDP and CO₂ emissions being stationary around a broken trend. Similar conclusions are reached when we analyse country-groups based on levels of development. Failure to properly characterise the time series properties of the data by not controlling for an unknown number of structural breaks and for cross-sectional dependence could be responsible for the fragility and lack of robustness surrounding the estimation of environmental Kuznets curves.     

Primary care workload in the management of chronic pain. A retrospective cohort study using a GP database to identify resource implications for UK primary care

Summary

The management of chronically painful conditions is relatively labour intensive, as there is no single treatment regime that can be reliably forecast to control symptoms across a broad range of patients and underlying conditions. The achievement of effective and well tolerated analgesia therefore carries considerable workload implications. This study set out to quantify the impact of managing therapy with nonsteroidal antiinflammatories and nonopiate analgesics within UK general practice.

Two separate cohorts of patients were defined from the MediPlus GP database, in order to characterise the workload impact of both established and new patients being treated with antiinflammatory/analgesic agents. Where treatment changes occurred, the underlying reasons for these changes were identified, if possible. The relative importance of these reasons was appraised and expressed both in terms of the number of appointments used and the direct costs attributable.

Similar results were obtained for both cohorts. Changes of therapy reflected side effects, intolerance and allergy in 23-25% of cases, lack of efficacy in 20-22%, and resolution of the underlying condition in 7-10% of cases. No reason was attributable in 44-47% of changes. Extrapolating these results to a national level suggests that management of therapy in these patients accounts for 4.6 million appointments per year, equivalent to 793 whole time GPs, at a total cost of around £69 million. The use of nonsteroidal antiinflammatories and nonopiate analgesics is associated with a significant impact on primary care workload, with poor efficacy being the trigger for almost as many consultations as poor tolerability. Addressing this issue may offer an important contribution towards reducing maximum waiting time for appointments in general practice towards the target of 48 hours.