Shadow vs. market prices in explaining land allocation: Subsistence maize cultivation in rural Mexico

Prices may fail to explain farmers’ land allocation if the relevant decision prices are “shadow prices” that deviate from market prices. This may be the case for farmers who attach significant non-market values to their crops. I theoretically explain why land allocation may not respond to market signals even if transaction costs are not binding. I use nationally representative rural household data from Mexico to show that shadow prices better explain the land subsistence farmers allocate to traditional maize in this center of maize diversity. I discuss the importance of non-market values in understanding supply response and on-farm conservation of traditional crops.     

Effects of agricultural market policy on crop production in China

This paper investigates the effects of Chinese market policy on crop production in the reform process. After a brief review of the policy changes due to the reform, the theoretical significance of Chinese market policies for crop production is demonstrated diagrammatically. It is shown that under the current market system the production of main crops is significantly influenced by both market and quota prices. While relatively high quota reduces the influence of market prices on production, relative price changes between competing crops will lead to shifting farmers’ cultivation preferences if inputs are constant. Empirical analysis, based on cross-section data for the period 1985–1997 from the province of Zhejiang, confirms these hypotheses. The effects of policy variables, however, prove to be crop-specific. If the potential of crop production in China is to be better used, an even more market-oriented agricultural policy is required.     

Entry,donor market size,and competitive conduct among nonprofit firms

This paper empirically characterizes competitive behavior among charitable nonprofits where prices and output are difficult to observe. Using a model tailored to donative nonprofits and an empirical methodology that exploits cross-sectional variation in market size and various measurable demographic and cost characteristics applicable for nonprofits, this paper estimates the threshold number of potential donors required for nonprofit economic viability in five major charitable sectors. We find that our sample markets generally reach competitive levels once five or more nonprofits in a given nonprofit sector are observed. The paper offers several possible interpretations of these findings and directions for future research.     

New agricultural technology and smallfarmers in Latin America

Biased income distribution in agriculture as a result of the green revolution towards better agricultural regions and larger farmers has been justified by declining prices for rice and wheat making consumers the main beneficiaries of this new technology. But, there are two arguments for focusing future agricultural technology towards small farmers and poorer resource regions. First, evidence suggests that there is little productivity or nutritional improvement from migration. Second, unless the supply of prime areas can be made more elastic, most of the small farmer food crops, even with new technology, will not be sufficiently profitable to displace the high value activities currently found in these areas in Latin America.     

Explaining smallholder maize marketing in southern and eastern Africa: The roles of market access,technology and household resource endowments

Research on household food grain sales behavior in developing countries has tended to focus on the roles of market access and prices to explain why many rural households do not sell staple crops, though recent literature suggests that low household asset endowments may also be key constraints. We use econometric analysis of panel data from smallholders in Kenya, Mozambique, and Zambia to inform the design of public investments that will enable smallholders to increase their maize sales. Results show that investments that raise farm-level productivity and land access are an essential complement to investments that improve market access.     

Farmer training in off-season vegetables: Effects on income and pesticide use in Bangladesh

The cultivation of crops outside the regular cropping calendar when supply is low and prices are high can give farmers better profits and consumers more choice. However, off-season production may increase pesticide risk if crops are more affected by pests and diseases and farmers do not handle pesticides correctly. This study quantified the effect of training in off-season tomato production on the income and pesticide use of smallholder vegetable farmers in southwestern Bangladesh. The study uses farm-level data from 94 trained and 151 non-trained farm households and applies propensity score matching and inverse probability weighting to correct for selection bias. For the average smallholder vegetable farmer, training increased net household income by about 48%. We found that 31% of the trained farm households who had initially adopted the technology continued its use in the second year, but farm households who discontinued using the technology also experienced significant income gains from the training. There was a significant increase in pesticide use (+56%) and although there was an improvement in pesticide handling practices, trained farmers may have been more exposed to pesticide health risk. The policy implication is that while off-season vegetable production can create dramatic income improvements, it is important to emphasize safe and sustainable pest management methods as part of policies promoting it.     

Food price seasonality in Africa: Measurement and extent

Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias. This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and a half to three times larger than in the international reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across market places but maize is the only crop in which there are important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to seasonality in food prices and consumption.     

Digging Deep to Compete: Vertical Integration,Product Market Competition and Prices

This article establishes a causal effect of product market competition on vertical integration. I exploit a hitherto unexplored natural experiment in the U.S. coal mining industry and a unique mine‐level organizational data set. Following an exogenous increase in product market competition, the incidence of vertical integration fell by 33% within the treatment group relative to the counterfactual. I find novel evidence that transition to the lower degree of vertical integration is driven by competition's reducing market prices by 32% which decreased the incentive to conduct vertical mergers. I discuss several possible interpretations of these changes.     

UK Fixed Rate Repayment Mortgage and Mortgage Indemnity Valuation

We use a mean-reverting interest rate model and a lognormal house price diffusion model to evaluate British fixed rate repayment mortgage contracts with (embedded) default and prepayment options. The model also provides values for capped mortgage indemnity guarantees and the corresponding (residual) lender's coinsurance. Since the partial differential equation incorporating the general features of these mortgage contracts does not have a closed-form solution, an explicit finite difference method is used for the valuation (and sensitivity) results, with solution improvements to deal with error bounds. Then we provide graphical representations of each mortgage component as a function of house prices and interest rate levels, along with interpretations of the analysis. We calculate precisely the lender's (residual) exposure to house price risk, given the borrower's options, house and interest rate uncertainty, and customary mortgage indemnity insurance for high loan/collateral ratio mortgages.     

Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines

Faced with high domestic rice prices that have fueled inflation above the 2018 target and penalized poor consumers the most, the government of the Philippines has decided to abandon the quantitative restrictions on imports and replace them with tariffs. This paper uses a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework to assess the possible impacts of this reform on imports, production, consumption and prices. In contrast with past similar studies, we address three key concerns (i) the heterogeneity in farm price across 16 regions in response to the combined effect of the tarriffication and the average historical trend in productivity increase at 1.5% between 2001 and 2018, (ii) the differentiation of imports by origin partly due to the different tariffs applied to countries within and beyond the Association of South East Asian Nations, and (iii) the effect on domestic prices in third countries. The simulation results suggest that the reform would increase imports by 2.47 million tons (20.7%) in 2019. We also find a large decline in farm prices and retail prices respectively by PhP 6.1/kg (30.1%) and PhP 7.6/kg (17.4%) in 2019 that explains an increase in rice consumption. We estimate the fall in total inflation at 1.2% in 2019 but less over time. Further, the large fall in farm prices in 2019 is shared quite evenly among regions in the short term but returns to pre-reform levels in the near term. Using a higher price elasticity of supply for one region obtained from panel data surveys, we show a more pronounced decline in production than the national average. Such differentiated results confirm the relevance of using a regionally disaggregated model to design more targeted policies. We also show a slight increase in world prices, which led to small increases in the domestic prices of South and Southeast Asian rice markets. While this reform is largely pro-poor consumers, policy makers would need to use the additional tariff revenue to help rice growers either increase their competitiveness and modernize their rice production or shift to other crops.     

Market integration and price transmission in consumer markets of developing countries

World prices for agricultural commodities surged in 2006–08, and then again in 2011–12. In many developing countries, consumer prices for staple foods, such as bread and rice, mirrored these movements. This paper examines whether prices in urban consumer markets within developing countries are co-integrated with prices in world agricultural commodity markets. Using a single equation error correction model, we examine the response of consumer prices for wheat, rice, maize, and sorghum to changes in world market prices and exchange rates in urban centers of the developing world. Analyzing over 60 country/commodity pairings, we find that developing countries’ consumer markets are co-integrated with world markets. Yet, we also find that the transmission of changes in both world prices and real exchange rates to domestic consumer prices is not high, and that the movement of domestic consumer prices to new equilibrium with world prices after a shock to the latter is relatively slow.     

House Prices and Inflation

The present paper examines the long-run impact of inflation on homeowner equity by investigating the relationship between house prices and the prices of nonhousing goods and services, rather than return series and inflation rates as in previous empirical studies on the inflation hedging ability of real estate. There are two reasons for this methodological departure from prior practice: (1) while the total return on housing cannot be accurately measured, the total return on housing is fully reflected in housing prices, and (2) given that using returns or differencing a time series leads to a loss of long-run information contained in the series, valuable long-run information can be captured by using prices. Also, unlike previous related studies, we exclude housing costs from goods and services prices to avoid potential bias in estimating how inflation affects housing prices. Monthly data series are collected for existing and for new house prices as well as the consumer price index excluding housing costs for the period 1968–2000. Based on both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and recursive regressions, the empirical results yield estimated Fisher coefficients that are consistently greater than one over the sample period. Thus, we infer that house prices are a stable inflation hedge in the long run.     

Farm policies and added sugars in US diets

We examine how US farm policies for sweetener crops have affected the consumption and composition of sweeteners in the US diet. R&D expenditures have lowered the unit cost of commodities used in sweeteners, but have generated more technical progress in corn than in sugar crops, increasing use of corn in food production, ceteris paribus. Commodity programs have raised the price of sugar and decreased the price of corn. Thus, high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) became an inexpensive substitute for sugar in food from 1970 on. However, the effect of policy on ingredient prices has become less important over time. Today the farm value share in sweetened food is below 5% and HFCS is a specialized input in many food items, with limited substitution possibilities. The current link between US sweetener consumption and farm policy is weak. Recent evidence from other high-income countries shows little relationship between sweetener consumption and sugar policies.     

New technology introduction in a marginal coffee area of Colombia

Income stagnation in the downward cycle of primary product prices is a problem for small farmers in developing countries. The recent abrupt price decline in coffee poses a large adjustment problem in marginal production areas. One method of farm income stabilization for marginal export crop production areas is diversification into food crops with improved technology. The potential for a cushioning of this farm income decline via the introduction of improved food crop technology was examined. A substantial moderating effect was obtained even without uprooting the improved coffee technology. Moreover, an analysis of the constraints to the earlier introduction of the Caturra coffee variety helped identify some of the components of farmer decision making relevant to adoption of new technology.     

WHEN DO CONSUMERS SEARCH?*

This paper provides empirical evidence relating search to price movements. We measure consumer search directly from traffic statistics for web sites that report gasoline prices. We show empirically that consumers search more as prices rise than they do when prices fall. Asymmetric search patterns have consequences for price behavior. Our findings indicate that retail margins are squeezed by increased search. In addition, we show that there is more price dispersion when prices are falling than when prices are either stable or rising. Our results provide a search‐based explanation for the ‘rockets and feathers’ phenomenon of asymmetric price adjustment.     

PRICES,SPATIAL COMPETITION AND HETEROGENEOUS PRODUCERS: AN EMPIRICAL TEST*

Homogeneous‐producer models attribute lower prices in denser markets solely to lower optimal markups. I argue here that when producers have different production costs, competition‐driven selection on costs also reduces prices. This selection mechanism can be distinguished from the homogenous‐producer case because it implies that higher density leads not only to lower average prices, but to declines in upper‐bound prices and price dispersion as well. I find empirical support for this mechanism in the prices of ready‐mixed concrete plants. I also show these findings do not simply reflect lower factor prices in dense markets, but result instead because dense‐market producers are more efficient.     

The impact of regulation on the retail prices in fixed-line telephony across the European Union

This paper estimates reduced-form models for incumbent prices in the fixed telecommunications industry using data for European Union (EU) countries from 1998 to 2002. The regulation of fixed-line telephony has a significant impact on prices for residential consumers. Liberalization of the telecommunications industry decreased retail prices by about 8.2%. The introduction of carrier pre-selection and number portability had a negative impact on price levels. The estimation results also suggest that a 1% decrease in termination charges on the incumbent network led on average to a 0.17% decrease in the cost of usage basket for residential consumers. Furthermore, in the pricing regressions for incumbent local and national calls at peak and off-peak times interconnection charges are significant only in the estimation of national peak prices. A 1% decrease in single transit interconnection charges on the incumbent network led to a 0.31% decrease in incumbent national prices at peak times, as calculated for the average prices in the EU in 2002.     

Canadian Inter-City House Price Differentials

The purpose of this paper is to identify the sources of intercity house price differentials in Canada. The results indicate that demand factors are important explanatory variables; a 1% increase in the income of households raises house prices by 1.11%; higher rates of anticipated inflation result in higher house prices as households increase their demand for real assets such as housing during inflationary periods; and finally, the fraction of households that are non-family households is positively associated with house prices. These results are in agreement with those of other countries.     

Fertiliser and food policy in LDCs

At a time of fertiliser scarcity and high prices it is important to know more about the poorly understood relationships between fertiliser and food production. Fertiliser price increases are reflected in increased prices for food which poses a dilemma for governments attempting to increase food production and minimise rising prices. Through the use of a simple macro-model these relationships are discussed and the policy insights they offer. Impact of price receives special attention because of its frequent use as a policy instrument.     

Price transmission across the U.S. food distribution system

Price transmission models are estimated using recursive methods across 100 food commodities. From the individual commodities, short- and long-run price transmission coefficients are estimated for rising and falling prices. These coefficients are classified into five commodity categories and expressed as one vector while coding for causality, market levels, rising/falling prices, short and long run, and time period. Then the impact of each variable is estimated and inferences are drawn about the degree of price transmission. Results show that price linkages are strong but slightly declining over time, with some evidence of asymmetric behavior. Long-run rising prices are passed through more than long-run falling prices, except for fruits and vegetables.