差错责任追究制度与分析师盈余预测

本文分别从分析师跟踪、盈余预测误差和分歧度三个方面考察年报信息披露重大差错责任追究制度对分析师行为的影响.研究发现,建立差错责任追究制度公司的分析师跟踪人数更多、盈余预测误差和分歧度更低,并且这种关系主要存在于高管为男性以及盈余质量较差的公司.进一步研究发现,建立差错责任追究制度的公司盈余信息含量更高、分析师更可能发布...     

Errors in self-reported earnings: The role of previous earnings volatility and individual characteristics

I report the measurement error in self-reported earnings for a developing country using a novel data set. The data set consists of two cross-sections of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) wage and salary sectors; additionally, a subset of the two cross-sections may be linked to create a panel. Administrative data from FSM Social Security office are matched to the FSM Census data for the wage and salary sectors. I find that the error in annual self-reported earnings is centered on zero. Additionally, I find strong evidence for mean reversion in the data suggesting non-classical measurement error. I identify the impact of prior years' earnings variability on the current reporting of earnings using administrative data on earnings histories. Prior earnings volatility strongly affects measurement error in current period. However, the effect of prior shocks diminish significantly over time—suggesting that first-differencing and fixed-effects techniques will not improve accuracy.     

测拟合度与投资价值研究

笔者采用方向测度变量和序次测度变量,运用logistic模型来研究盈利预测的拟合程度以及潜在的投资价值影响动因。结论表明:不可控因素和可控因素对盈利预测的拟合度同时产生着影响。由于中国证券市场监管体系不健全,盈利预测信息的质量不能令人满意。投资者必须充分考虑到公司盈利预测信息的局限性,对资产利用效率差、偏重非主营业务的公司的预测尤其要采取谨慎的态度;而对上市公司来说,做盈利预测时应采取实事求是的态度,为投资者提供真正有用的决策工具。     

财务分析师盈余预测精确度决定因素的实证分析

文章以2004~2005年的上市公司数据为样本,分析了我国财务分析师在预测上市公司未来盈余时影响其预测精确度的主要因素。研究发现,预测机构数量的增加、盈余可预测性以及信息披露质量的提高,将伴随着高的盈余预测精确度,而盈余波动程度越大、公司规模越大,预测的精确度则越低。同时,可预测性、盈余管理、盈余波动以及公司扩张速度对分析师的悲观预测有显著的影响,而可预测性、盈余管理以及公司规模则显著影响分析师对盈余的乐观估计。     

Quantile forecast combination using stochastic dominance

This paper derives optimal forecast combinations based on stochastic dominance efficiency (SDE) analysis with differential forecast weights for different quantiles of forecast error distribution. For the optimal forecast combination, SDE will minimize the cumulative density functions of the levels of loss at different quantiles of the forecast error distribution by combining different time-series model-based forecasts. Using two exchange rate series on weekly data for the Japanese yen/US dollar and US dollar/Great Britain pound, we find that the optimal forecast combinations with SDE weights perform better than different forecast selection and combination methods for the majority of the cases at different quantiles of the error distribution. However, there are also some very few cases where some other forecast selection and combination model performs equally well at some quantiles of the forecast error distribution. Different forecasting period and quadratic loss function are used to obtain optimal forecast combinations, and results are robust to these choices. The out-of-sample performance of the SDE forecast combinations is also better than that of the other forecast selection and combination models we considered.     

Executive shareholding,compensation, and analyst forecast of Chinese firms

We examine the impact of executive and leadership shareholding and cash compensation on analyst forecast error and dispersion as proxies for information asymmetry. We find that firms pay higher compensation (or excess compensation) to executives and directors are associated with higher information asymmetry. The positive association is stronger where executives’ and directors’ shareholdings are higher. Shareholding appears to facilitate managerial entrenchment and gives highly paid executives/leadership stronger structural power which adversely affects information disclosure leading to larger forecast error and dispersion. These results are robust to different measures of compensation and alternative models controlling for the predictability of firm-level earnings. Our findings indicate that executive/director shareholding and compensation do not provide sufficient incentives for information disclosure by Chinese firms.     

Earnings distribution of Cuban immigrants in the USA: evidence from quantile regression with sample selection

This article analyses the conditional earnings distribution for Cuban immigrants in the USA considering Buchinsky sample selection in a quantile regression model. The test proposed by Huber and Melly to test the independence between error terms and regressors (conditional on the selection probability) is also considered. This is the first attempt in the migration literature to use quantile regression with sample selection. The data used come from the US American Community Survey. The results show that the hypothesis of conditional independence is not rejected, and increments in earnings associated with the usual socioeconomic characteristics in labour studies vary between the cohorts considered. The main conclusions are that a decline in returns from education may be a sign that a high level of education no longer provides a competitive advantage and that being a black person is associated with substantially lower earnings regardless of the individuals’ position in the earnings distribution. This may explain why, historically, comparatively fewer black Cubans have made the decision to emigrate to the USA because of a lack of economic incentives.     

管理层业绩预告信息披露时机选择研究——基于投资者有限关注的视角

基于投资者有限关注的视角,以中国上市公司2005-2012年业绩预告信息为样本,研究发现:上市公司业绩预告信息披露存在时机选择行为,相比业绩预告信息少日和其他周历,管理层更倾向于在信息多日和周五、周六发布坏消息业绩预告。这有助于分散投资者注意力,从而减少坏消息导致的股价波动。     

Female Earnings and Divorce Rates: Some Australian Evidence

The purpose of this article is to examine whether female earnings have influenced divorce rates in Australia, using state‐level data for the past four decades. Following a recent study by Ressler and Waters (2000), which concludes from comparable US data that female earnings and divorce rates may be jointly endogenous, initial testing is performed to identify whether female earnings can be treated as exogenous. A Hausman specification error test finds no evidence of a simultaneous relationship in the Australian data, in contrast to the findings of Ressler and Waters. The test result supports the hypothesis that other underlying factors affect female earnings, of which higher divorce rates are merely another symptom. A divorce rate equation is estimated. In accordance with much of the literature, the rise in female earnings over the past four decades is found to have increased Australian divorce rates.     

An analysis of Japanese earnings forecast revisions with application to seasoned equity offerings

Using the bootstrap method, we explore the characteristics of revisions in Japanese earnings forecast data. We find that forecast revisions exhibit a downward trend over time as the actual earnings announcement date approaches, and are serially correlated with three significant lags. Using these characteristics we develop a model to estimate abnormal forecast revisions, and illustrate the model's use with a sample of Japanese companies announcing seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). In contrast to results obtained by studies using American data, our findings indicate significant positive upward revisions when Japanese firms announce an SEO.     

Analyst earnings forecast revisions and the persistence of antidumping relief

Panel corrected standard errors with instrumental variables and effects are invoked to assess the significance of earnings forecast revisions around critical dates in non-steel AD petitions filed in 1985–1987. These petitions were filed between two important US trade law revisions (1984 and 1988), and the period encompasses significant stock market advances and declines. Event studies have been invoked to assess the value of AD petitions. However, they do not estimate the temporal distribution of any abnormal returns. Because analysts make quarterly earnings forecast revisions over several horizons, we can assess the short and long run value of petitions. We find that AD petitions tend to depress earnings forecasts in the year of the petition. However, second year earnings forecasts tend to be revised upwards. There is no effect on five year (long term) earnings growth forecasts. Hence any benefits of protection do not persist. There is evidence that analysts anticipate the filing by revising forecasts in the three months in advance of the filing. We also find that AD petitions do not affect the accuracy of forecasts.     

An international comparison of analysis' earnings forecast accuracy

A major task of financial analysts working for stockbrokers and investment firms is to forecast future earnings of listed companies. The usefulness of their work crucially depends on the accuracy of the forecasts. A great many studies have examined the accuracy, bias, and other characteristics of profit forecasts made in the U.S. In contrast, however, there is very little research on forecasting accuracy in other countries despite the increasingly global nature of investing. This paper examines the accuracy of corporate earnings forecasts in 34 different countries. In addition, a model is developed that seeks to explain differences across companies and countries. The findings show that eight countries have better forecast accuracy than the U.S. This cross-sectional model shows that with the inherent difficulty in forecasting for a specific company (proxied by the change in its earnings), risk and the number of analysts following the stock are the major factors in explaining earnings forecast accuracy.     

业绩预告修正信息质量的实证研究——基于上市公司2007～2009年业绩预告修正的分析

本文利用2007～2009年沪深两市A股上市公司业绩预告修正数据,实证检验了业绩预告修正信息的可靠性。研究发现,预告修正过程中存在盈余管理,原预告坏消息的公司会在预告之后主动修正预告,盈余管理与业绩修正方向相同,而原预告好消息的公司进行的预告修正是被动的,盈余管理的方向与预告修正的方向相反。另外,资产重组和债务重组是业绩预告修正公司常用的调高盈余的手段。     

Toward an Understanding of the Risky Choice Behavior of Professional Financial Analysts

Several studies have reported inefficiencies and/or biases in analysts' ability to incorporate new information into their earnings forecasts. We propose that an important psychological factor associated with optimistic earnings forecasts is the propensity of analysts to engage in risky choice behavior as described by prospect theory. Furthermore, the motivational incentives faced by analysts may exacerbate risky choice behavior during forecast revision, thereby magnifying overestimates of earnings.

Sixty professional financial analysts were asked to issue a first quarter and then an annual EPS forecast of a company. The analysts were randomly assigned to two initial forecast accuracy conditions that indicated their initial forecast earnings was 1) essentially the same as actual earnings, or 2) substantially higher than actual earnings. Analysts were also assigned to one of three motivational incentive conditions indicating the analyst and brokerage firm would 1) have no future contact with the forecast firm, 2) begin to follow the forecast firm, or 3) establish an underwriting relationship with the forecast firm.

The results indicate that analysts who perceived a loss function due to the inaccuracy of prior earnings forecasts tended to choose riskier prospects in subsequent forecast revisions than analysts who perceived their prior earnings forecasts to be accurate. These riskier prospects translate into greater overestimates of earnings. Furthermore, while the average risk attitude of the analysts was optimistic, higher levels of motivational incentives were associated with greater risk-seeking behavior by the analysts who perceive a loss function. It appears that the motivational incentives inherent in brokerage firms can exacerbate the risky choice behavior of financial analysts during forecast revision. These findings support the utility of incorporating both cognitive and motivational factors into the prediction of analyst behavior.     

PE、PEG指标在选股中的有效性分析

本文推导出计算股票理论期望收益率的计算方法,当获得未来两期盈利预测数据和当期股票价格数据后,即可通过该方法计算出该股的理论期望收益率。同时,通过该模型,输入PE和PEG数据后,也可得到基于PE预测值的期望收益率和基于PEG预测值的期望收益率。通过比较、和三者之间的关系,可知PEG是优于PE的选股指标。     

研究员收益预测差异与公司债券信用利差

机构研究员对上市公司的未来收益进行预测,预测差异常常造成债券价格出现偏差。以国内上市公司发行的债券为例,以研究员对收益预测的差异和债券信用利差进行了检验。结果发现,在卖空限制下,预测差异越大,债券信用利差越低。这种差异更多地代表了投资者的意见分歧,而非未来的风险水平。并且公司债券比企业债券的信用利差对投资者意见分歧更敏感。此外,还证实了银行间债券市场的流动性确实优于交易所债券市场;平均而言,公司债券的信用利差较企业债券的信用利差更低。     

Professionals inside the board room: accounting expertise of directors and dividend policy

Directors’ personal attributes have significant impacts on governance effectiveness. We study whether directors’ accounting expertise affects corporate financial policy and investigate dividend in specific. We construct a dataset of audit committee directors’ accounting expertise for Standard & Poor 500 firms from 2005 to 2012. We first verify directors’ monitoring roles by showing that firms with accounting expert sitting on their audit committees demonstrate stronger accounting conservatism. In our main tests, we find that these firms maintain lower dividend payment level, which are less sensitive to earnings volatility. This suggests directors’ advisory roles in financial policy. We further show that our accounting expertise cannot be subsumed by management ability. In additional test, we further examine the baseline results conditional on analyst forecast error. Our findings highlight the importance of directors’ professional expertise in fulfilling their governance roles.     

Why is There a Graduate Earnings Premium for Students From Independent Schools?

We examine the determinants of occupational earnings of UK 1993 graduates and focus on the influence of the type of school the graduate attended prior to university entrance. For data reasons, we restrict attention to graduates who attended school in England. We estimate that, on average, a male (female) graduate who attended an Independent school receives an earnings premium of 3.1 per cent (3.4 per cent) over and above the earnings of a graduate who attended an LEA school, ceteris paribus . We also find considerable variation across different Independent schools in the size of the graduate earnings premium, especially for males, and show that in the case of males the premium increases with the level of school fees, but is not statistically related to measures of school–level average academic performance.     

Does director affiliation lead to analyst bias?

This study examines the ability of security analysts to provide objective earnings forecasts for firms with which the analyst’s brokerage firm has a director affiliation. The affiliation that we examine is where the brokerage firm has, on its board of directors, a director or an upper management individual from the firm which an analyst at the brokerage firm provides coverage. We find that affiliated analysts tend to provide earnings forecasts that are insignificantly different from unaffiliated analysts in terms of accuracy. However, we also find that forecasts provided by affiliated analysts tend to be significantly more pessimistic than those provided by their unaffiliated counterparts. This pessimistic bias in their earnings forecast will more easily allow the covered firm to beat earnings expectations when earnings are realized. We find that this bias surfaced after the Global Settlement decision, an enforcement agreement between large investment banks and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding issues surrounding conflicts of interest.     

Computer knowledge and earnings: evidence for Australia

This paper uses data on wage and salary workers in Australia in 1993 to examine the relation between computer knowledge and earnings. A unique feature of the data set that is used is detailed information on the types and levels of computer skills possessed by individual workers. The main objectives of the study are to contribute to understanding the magnitude and sources of the relation between computer knowledge and earnings. Similar to existing research it is found that there is a large and significant return to computer knowledge, but that the magnitude of the return is substantially reduced in regressions that include detailed occupation controls. Using the detailed information on workers’ computer skills the main finding is that earnings are significantly positively related to the number of types of skills and average level of skills possessed by a worker.