Scenario Management: An Approach to Develop Future Potentials

In order to deal with growing uncertainties and to preserve their competitiveness, enterprises should identify future success potentials very early and develop them on time. Scenario management is a very powerful method to manage this complex planning situation and is based on scenarios that are adjusted precisely to their enterprise. Therefore it is based on the main principles of systems thinking and multiple futures. The five phases of a scenario project are explained with the aid of a concrete example. It is also shown how scenario management is used to develop corporate or business strategies. Furthermore, it is used to develop similar elements of these strategies, such as mission statements or core competencies.     

Scenario Planning

Today the question of what scenarios are is unclear except with regard to one point—they have become extremely popular. Many people see scenarios as forecasts of some future condition while others disavow that their scenarios are forecasts. Yet looking at scenarios that do not come labeled as forecasts or non-forecasts, it is difficult to tell them apart. The purpose of the scenario is at a meta level, since the scenario usually does not speak for itself in terms of its purpose.     

基于LEAP的工业能源未来发展规划——以浙江省宁波经济技术开发区为例

在节能减排的政策引导下,能源消费问题越来越受到关注。使用LEAP估计和规划浙江省宁波经济技术开发区的工业能源消费情况,模拟分析三种不同的政策情景下的能源消费情况和SO2排放情况;识别各情景的政策因子的影响,给出地区能源发展政策建议。     

新兴技术下的情景规划法及其应用

情节规划法不同于传统战略思维。在技术变革的不确定背景下,它是战略分析的有效工具。本文分析了情景规划法的理论来源、实施步骤及主要应用,并通过案例阐释了情景规划法对复杂环境下战略决策制定的作用。     

情景规划应对不确定性的思路研究

在对现有文献与案例进行分析的基础上,对情景规划应对不确定性的基本思路进行了研究。研究表明,采用动态渐进的思维和分阶段决策是情景规划应对不确定性的基本思路,围绕这两点,用确定的情景代替不确定的未来、密切关注早期信号的变化等对应对不确定性大有裨益。     

开放式创新理论的视角、过程及未来研究方向

自Chesbrough 2003年的奠基之作以来,开放式创新已经成为创新管理中一个最热门的议题之一。回顾了开放式创新和封闭式创新在创新原则上的区别,阐述了开放式创新的9个视角和3个过程,以及开放式创新的发展趋势,最后提出了开放式创新的未来研究方向。通过对国外开放式创新文献的梳理,旨在为国内开展开放式创新研究提供参考和启示。     

Sustainable Economic Growth for India: An Exercise in Macroeconomic Scenario Building

Journal of Quantitative Economics -     

再制造系统生产计划研究的现状与展望

首先给出了再制造系统的一般框架,总结了影响再制造生产计划制定的不确定性因素,进而通过借鉴企业资源计划系统的计划框架给出了再制造系统生产计划的一般层次结构,从研究问题和研究方法两个方面总结了再制造系统生产计划的研究成果,最后指出了进一步的研究方向。     

基于情景规划的国家公园气候变化应对：美国经验及对中国的启示

：应对气候变化已成为全球共识,国家公园和自然保护地既是应对气候变化的重要阵地,也是受气候变化影响的敏感区域,但中国目前的研究和实践均还较薄弱,亟须借鉴域外经验。系统梳理了美国国家公园体系中,气候变化对自然、文化和社区的影响,概述了美国国家公园管理局的气候变化应对行动,指出情景规划是重要的气候变化应对工具。总结了美国国家公园在气候变化中开展情景规划的流程,提炼其规划特征,并以魔鬼塔国家纪念区为案例,详析其情景规划实践过程。在此基础上,总结了中国国家公园及体制试点区可能面临的气候变化风险,对比了情景规划与传统规划的区别,明确目前推广条件的欠缺,指出应逐步推广情景规划,并从实现科研储备、奠定实践基础、建立规划体系三方面提出可能的路径,对中国开展国家公园和自然保护地应对气候变化的相关工作具有借鉴意义。     

融合情景分析的产业技术路线图集成规划过程研究

针对目前产业层次的技术路线图在产业环境等预测方面存在的问题,分析了基于情景分析的产业技术路线图的内涵和特点,在此基础上,依据产业技术路线图集成规划过程,提出了融合情景分析的产业技术路线图集成规划过程分析框架,对情景分析在产业技术路线图集成规划过程中计划阶段、开发阶段、实施与更新阶段的主要任务和支持方法进行了重点讨论。     

Discounting the Distant Future: An Experimental Investigation

We use a laboratory experiment to elicit discount rates over a 20-year time horizon using government savings bonds as a payment vehicle. When using a constant (exponential) discount rate function, we find an implied average discount rate of 4.9 %, which is much lower than has been found in previous experimental studies that used time horizons of days or months. However, we also find strong support for non-constant, declining discount rates for longer time horizons, with an extrapolated implied annual discount rate approaching 0.5 % in 100 years. There is heterogeneity in discount rates and risk preferences in that people with more optimistic beliefs about technological progress have higher discount rates. These findings contribute to the debate over the appropriate discount rate to use in comparing the long-term benefits of climate change mitigation to the more immediate costs.     

设计驱动式创新——一种开放社会下的创新模式

本文介绍并进一步发展了设计驱动式创新这一前沿的创新模式。认为设计驱动式创新建立在社会文化开放性的基础上,并由此给出了设计驱动式创新的概念模型与机理模型。最后,针对我国社会文化日益开放的特点,对中国企业进行设计驱动式创新给出了一些建议。     

Planning and Urban Growth: An Anglo-American Comparison

Understanding the complexity of institutional change is a necessary step in gaining deeper knowledge of economic performance over time, and it is one of the main challenges in the research agenda of institutionalism. Institutional change can be studied using a variety of theoretical approaches. We study some of the main approaches to institutional change in original economic institutionalism and new institutional economics. First, after comparing the approaches of Émile Durkheim and Thorstein Veblen, we focus on the contributions of the instrumental value theory and other original institutional traditions in the study of institutional change. Second, new institutional economics improved on the weak points of rational choice institutionalism regarding institutional change and incorporated the “institutions-as-rules” approach (Douglass North) and the “institutions-as-equilibria” approach (Avner Greif, Masahiko Aoki). We analyze both approaches to institutional change. Furthermore, we present an updated nonintegral overview of approaches to institutional change, show several interconnections between original and new institutionalisms, and conclude that the dialogue between the different theories of institutional change is relevant and beneficial.     

Scenario building: Uses and abuses

Scenarios hold little interest if they are not pertinent, coherent, and plausible. Although foresight requires a rigorous approach to address complex problems, the tools must also be simple enough to be easily used. Since the mid-1980s, the approach in strategic prospective workshops (a term that reminds us of the participatory nature of the French approach) has proven its effectiveness in meeting these criteria (simple, rigorous and appropriable; i.e., may be appropriated by participants). The authors try to reply to simple and important questions: What is a scenario? How to judge the quality of a scenario? Which strategies for which scenarios? These questions remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular. They could also involve the stakeholders from upstream to downstream, as seen in the agro-food sector. Finally, they argue that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.     

Financial Liberalization and Inflationary Dynamics: An Open Economy Analysis

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of financial liberalization on inflation. We develop an open economy monetary endogenous growth general equilibrium model, with financial intermediaries subjected to obligatory ‘high’ reserve ratio, serving as the source of financial repression. When calibrated to four Southern European semi-industrialized countries, namely Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, which typically had high reserve requirements, the model indicates a positive inflation–financial repression relationship irrespective of the specification of preferences. But the strength of the relationship obtained from the model is found to be much smaller in size than the corresponding empirical estimates.     

基于众包的开放式创新研究:现状与发展方向

首先界定了开放式创新与众包的概念,并澄清了二者之间的关系,在此基础上确定了文献搜集范围。通过内容分析发现,相关文献分别基于参与者、发起者以及创新平台3种视角,主要围绕Who、Why、What、How4方面的主题展开研究。基于这种发现,对文献分别按照研究主题进行了梳理,分析了目前研究中存在的不足,并指出了未来可能的发展方向。     

智能制造的生产成本属性异变及边际成本递减律

智能科技革命驱动的智能制造,是新时期推进制造强国建设的不二选项。智能制造以工业智能体取代人力作业,采用“车间智能体+镜像网络”的单要素虚实融合生产模式,这将带来迥异于传统制造业的生产特征和成本属性,进而改变成本函数形态。比较研究发现,智能制造具有“高固定成本、弱可变成本”属性,并据此推导出随产量弱增长的弱成本函数,以及相应产生的边际成本递减规律。智能制造边际成本递减律,主要源于智能制造的单要素虚实融合生产模式对可变成本的冲淡与弱化效应。从政策层面,建议有序开展智能制造系统的众筹建造模式,积极推行智能制造系统的产能共享模式,尽早谋划智能时代产业工人的全新就业模式,大力引导消费者不断介入生产活动,实现消费者向“消产者”的身份转变。