Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary and fiscal policy coordination: Implications for European Monetary Union

In a two-country model, we consider the implications of monetary and fiscal policy coordination for macroeconomic stabilization. We show that the optimal regime is one of monetary and fiscal policy coordination under flexible exchange rates. In the context of the European Community, this suggests that the desire to fix exchange rates may not be costless. In addition, we show that fiscal coordination requires a relatively high degree of flexibility in fiscal policy. This result suggests that limits on the flexibility of fiscal policies, as suggested in the Delors Report, may hinder macroeconomic stabilization.     

The European Monetary Policy Responses During the Pandemic Crisis

This paper uses an event-based analysis to describe how the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) policy responses to the pandemic crisis have affected the European financial and economic system. The result of our exercise, which is based on the examination of the main measures taken by the ECB during 2020, is that these responses have positively affected the European economic system by improving banks’ lending activity and by indirectly creating room for expansionary fiscal policies in the euro area’s high-debt countries that do not have fiscal capacity.

     

中美“宽松”货币政策、通胀预期与货币规则的探讨

2008年10月以来,中美两国均采取了不同程度的"宽松"货币政策来应对源于美国金融危机的全球经济衰退。本文的研究显示,2008年,中美两国货币供应量M1和M2增长率是相似的;2008年底到2009年8月,中国的M1和M2增长率分别为20.6%和21.4%,而美国的M1和M2增长率仅为3.36%和2.14%,中国的通胀预期是市场对"超级宽松"货币政策的合理反应。在过去的一年间,中国货币当局对美国金融危机的反应比美国的政策干预更为积极。而货币供应量的高增长孕育着价格上涨的风险,货币政策应当从被动协调美国的相机抉择转向遵循货币数量规则,抑制通胀预期,以实现宏观经济的稳定增长。     

Global Implications of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules in the EMU

In order to analyze successful strategies for economic policy in a global environment both international interdependencies and the strategic behavior of global players must be considered. We use a global model of the world economy (the MSG2 Model) to show the effects of dynamic policy optimization in the presence of various supply and demand shocks to different world regions. We show that fixed rules are generally superior for supply shocks, while demand shocks call for more active or discretionary policies.     

Monetary Hegemony and its Implications for Small,Open Economies

The paper uses historical data on interest rates from 1920 to 2016 to explore whether a world rate of interest exists and whether a monetary hegemon affects it. The first principal component of long-term interest rates accounts for 75% of the variation in a matrix of 17 countries and proxies for the world rate of interest. The U.S. played the role of a hegemon, influencing long-term bond rates. After the introduction of the euro in 1999, interest rates in most European countries followed German interest rates but German rates followed U.S. rates even more than before the introduction of the euro. In two countries on the northern periphery, Denmark and Sweden, interest rates shadow German rates and the low rates have contributed to rising house prices and rising mortgage debt. Independent monetary policy calls for targeted controls on capital flows.

     

Structural Asymmetries and the Optimal Monetary Policy Instrument of the European Central Bank

Although the existence of differences in economic structure across European countries is well known, their implications for the conduct of the single monetary policy in Stage Three of EMU have not yet been analyzed. This paper explores the issue on the basis of a two-country, rational-expectations, stochastic model characterized by asymmetric structural equations and a general formulation for monetary policy. Only if financial shocks are the main source of instability can heterogeneity in structures be neglected. When real shocks to aggregate demand prevail, their geographical distribution and the difference in the elasticity of aggregate supply are the key factors governing the response to structural differences. When supply shocks predominate, irrespective of their geographical distribution monetary policy should lean against the wind with more determination than if countries were identical. Differences in the transmission lag of monetary policy or some concern for growth when pursuing price stabilization reduce the size of the correction in monetary policy called for by structural asymmetries.     

Implications of Monetary Union for Catching-up Member States

We examine the implications of monetary union for macroeconomic stabilization in catching-up participating countries. We allow member states’ supply conditions to differ, especially with regard to sectoral characteristics. Sectoral productivity shocks of the type associated with the Balassa–Samuelson effect tend to hamper the stabilization properties of a currency union. In the face of aggregate supply disturbances, the stabilization costs of renouncing monetary autonomy diminish with a steeper supply curve (as induced by higher trade openness) and—barring idiosyncratic shocks—with a larger reference country size, more homogeneous supply slopes and a higher preference for price stability.

商业银行流动性研究:基于中美两国货币政策变动的视角

中国商业银行流动性呈现出新特征,这些变化与货币政策偏紧与金融严监管存在重要联系。为此,文章构建了一个简洁模型,分析货币政策和金融监管对于商业银行流动性的影响,以及美联储货币政策调整对中国商业银行流动性的冲击,在此基础上,解析了包商银行事件的成因与影响,以及中国商业银行流动性危机的演绎形式,并给出了化解商业银行流动性危机的一些政策建议。     

Monetary Policy Committee Transparency: Measurement,Determinants, and Economic Effects

This paper studies monetary policy committee transparency (MPCT) based on a new index that measures central bankers’ educational and professional backgrounds as disclosed through central bank websites. Based on a novel cross-sectional data set covering 75 central banks, we investigate the determinants of MPCT as well as its economic consequences. We find that past inflation, institutional indicators, and monetary policy strategy are important determinants of MPCT. MPCT has a robust and significantly negative impact on inflation variability and inflation expectations, even after controlling for important macroeconomic variables and institutional transparency, as well as instrumenting MPCT in various ways. MPCT can be both a complement to and a substitute for institutional transparency.     

资本账户开放下的宏观审慎政策和货币政策组合研究

文章在含有抵押约束的开放动态随机一般均衡模型框架下,探讨了短期资金流动对中国金融体系和宏观经济冲击的表现形式,并据此检验不同政策组合的有效性。结果表明,资本账户开放程度加深将会引发短期跨境资金流动规模的提升,并导致资产价格、债务规模、通胀和产出波动加剧,表现出较强的顺周期特征;基于外资总债务占比和总产出占比的动态宏观审慎监管政策均能起到缓解经济波动的效果,政策效果随着监管力度的加强呈现出递增趋势。当资本账户开放程度较低时,最优政策组合是以产出和通胀为最终目标的传统泰勒规则;随着资本账户开放程度的提升,缓解由此产生的经济金融波动的最优政策应当是传统泰勒规则与基于外资在总产出中占比的动态宏观审慎监管政策相结合的政策组合,并且其监管效果与资本账户开放程度呈正相关关系。     

刘易斯拐点是否必然导致通胀?

近期有不少人士认为刘易斯拐点的出现及其引发的劳动力成本冲击会系统性推高中国目前及未来相当长一段时间的通胀水平。本文通过对典型经济体的经验以及理论分析认为,如果没有需求面以及货币供应量的配合,经济体在经历刘易斯拐点之时所面临的劳动力成本上升,并不必然导致通胀水平的系统性抬升。建议中国目前应该注重稳健的货币政策,并加快经济结构调整和城镇化建设。     

货币政策、投资约束与收入差距

文章将融资约束的异质性居民引入到新凯恩斯一般均衡模型中,考察货币政策对中国居民的收入分配和收入差距的影响,研究发现:(1)货币供给冲击和负向利率冲击对收入差距有正向的影响,货币政策使李嘉图居民与非李嘉图居民的收入出现明显分化;(2)通过反事实研究表明李嘉图居民比例的降低和投资约束的放松都会加大收入差距的影响;(3)通过比较4种不同货币政策规则对收入差距波动和福利的影响,发现随着通胀和产出缺口敏感系数的增加,采用泰勒规则不仅能平滑经济波动还能减少收入差距和福利损失。文章通过对货币政策对收入差距的影响及机制进行理论研究与定量分析,为中国货币政策研究提供了新的研究视角。     

从货币传导机制看日本货币政策的失效

进入90年代以来,日本的经济就陷入了失去的十年。如果说日本80年代中后期推出的货币政策为泡沫经济的形成提供了一张温床,那么90年代以后实行的货币政策则旨在医治泡沫崩溃后给日本经济带来的顽疾。但是,90年代至今出台的一系列货币政策能否使日本的经济起死回生呢?尽管国内已有大量的文献探讨了近年来货币政策的失效,但本文从货币传导机制的角度出发,运用最新的数据,分阶段详细讨论,得出日本的货币政策由于传导机制受阻从而对经济产生的影响甚微的结论,并从货币传导机制的表象引发出日本的经济结构和经济体制等深层次的根本性问题。     

Asset Prices, Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability

This article discusses the role of asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy when the ultimate goal is to maintain price stability and limit fluctuations in real income. It is argued that judicious interpretation of asset price movements can provide information about the risks of future macroeconomic imbalances, and that this information should be utilized in monetary policy decisions. Simulations results from both theoretical and empirical models support the conceptual argument. It is stressed that policy reactions to asset prices must not follow a mechanical rule, since the appropriate response depends on the underlying shock.     

货币政策立场指示器的实证研究——来自我国货币政策操作实践的证据

本文以我国1998年以来的货币政策操作实践为研究背景,对货币政策的经验研究前提--货币政策立场指示器问题进行了实证研究.研究表明,在对实际经济活动的预测能力方面,M1的增长率GM1最强,M2的增长率GM2次之,利率指标则较弱,所以GM1是我国货币政策立场的良好指示器.相应的政策含义是现阶段货币供给量作为中介目标还具有一定的合理性,建议货币当局尽快完善现有的货币统计框架以增强M2作为中介目标的适用性,同时货币政策操作应更加密切地关注M1指标.